Week 7 NFL Computer Ratings and Predictions
How likely is it that the New England Patriots win the AFC East?
Starting this week, I’ve added a couple of landing pages for NFL data, one for team ratings, the other for the results of simulating the NFL season. My top priority each week will be updating the landing pages, then I’ll work on preparing articles about college football and the NFL.
I’d planned not to write about the Ravens this week, but there’s a lot of variability in where different computer systems rank them. I’d like to explain in a bit more depth why my ratings put them at #22, and why I believe this is reasonable. I also want to look closely at the AFC East race and explain why I believe the Patriots have a good chance to win the division.
These ratings weight games from the 2024 season at 10% of a 2025 regular season game and games from the 2025 preseason at 20% of a 2025 regular season game. To estimate the impacts of this, I’ll assume that a that played 17 games in 2024, three preseason games in 2025, and six regular season games so far in 2025. I estimate that the 2025 regular season is responsible for 72.29% of that team’s rating, the 2024 season for 20.48%, and the 2025 preseason for the remaining 7.23%. This is approximate, and there are factors that can increase or decrease the weighting a bit from these values. However, the ratings are mostly due to the 2025 regular season at this point.
Predictive Ratings
These are forward looking ratings, meaning that they’re intended to evaluate how good a team is and predict its future success, but they don’t evaluate the quality of a team’s achievements earlier in the season. These ratings are based purely on points. They don’t factor in wins and losses, only the margin of victory. The ratings don’t explicitly calculate the strength of schedule, though I calculate this afterwards. However, because of how the ratings are calculated, the quality of opponents does influence the ratings.
The offense and defense columns refer to each team’s point scoring tendencies instead of the efficiency ratings that some other rating systems use. The overall rating is approximately the sum of a team’s offense and defense ratings. To predict the score of a game for the home team, take the home team’s offense rating, add half of the home advantage, subtract the visiting team’s defense rating, and add the mean score. Predicting the score is similar for the visiting team. Take the visiting team’s offense rating, subtract half of the home advantage, subtract the home team’s defense rating, and add the mean score. Predicting the margin of victory for a game is done by taking the home team’s rating, adding the home advantage, and subtracting the away team’s rating. For neutral site games, the home advantage is set to zero.
Predictive Ratings
Home advantage: 3.00 points
Mean score: 22.21 points
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
1 8.14 -2.18 Detroit Lions 8.20 -0.08
2 +1 7.52 -0.01 Houston Texans -2.07 9.57
3 -1 7.05 -0.64 Indianapolis Colts 6.99 0.06
4 +3 6.39 +1.22 Seattle Seahawks 3.79 2.60
5 -1 5.67 -1.25 Denver Broncos -1.21 6.85
6 +2 5.02 +1.33 Los Angeles Rams 0.48 4.55
7 +5 4.73 +1.75 Kansas City Chiefs 1.98 2.76
8 +1 4.62 +1.08 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6.15 -1.51
9 -4 4.25 -1.77 Green Bay Packers 0.89 3.34
10 -4 3.35 -2.38 Philadelphia Eagles 2.17 1.20
11 3.08 +0.08 Minnesota Vikings 1.43 1.62
12 +1 1.72 -0.19 Washington Commanders 3.46 -1.73
13 -3 1.40 -1.70 Buffalo Bills 3.30 -1.90
14 +1 1.10 +0.73 Pittsburgh Steelers 0.17 0.93
15 +1 0.33 +0.02 Jacksonville Jaguars -0.79 1.09
16 +2 0.28 +0.39 Los Angeles Chargers -0.58 0.86
17 +2 0.18 +0.45 Chicago Bears 0.38 -0.19
18 -1 -0.02 -0.09 San Francisco 49ers -0.78 0.78
19 +1 -0.27 +0.95 Arizona Cardinals -1.75 1.50
20 +3 -0.68 +2.25 Atlanta Falcons -4.06 3.37
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
21 -0.92 +1.14 New England Patriots -1.29 0.33
22 -8 -1.45 -3.02 Baltimore Ravens 3.61 -5.06
23 -1 -2.80 -0.37 Dallas Cowboys 4.50 -7.27
24 +1 -3.33 +2.53 New York Giants -3.91 0.60
25 -1 -4.89 -0.34 Miami Dolphins -1.46 -3.43
26 -5.99 +0.43 New York Jets -3.10 -2.90
27 +5 -6.76 +1.63 Carolina Panthers -2.80 -3.93
28 +3 -6.82 +1.11 Las Vegas Raiders -5.34 -1.49
29 -1 -7.20 -0.45 Cincinnati Bengals -0.83 -6.35
30 -3 -7.66 -0.99 Tennessee Titans -4.51 -3.14
31 -1 -7.77 -0.45 New Orleans Saints -4.00 -3.79
32 -3 -8.21 -1.14 Cleveland Browns -8.94 0.72 Schedule Strength
I’ve moved strength of schedule to a new table and added another couple of columns. The first column is the expected losing percentage (1 minus winning percentage) for a hypothetical average NFL team in each team’s games played to date. Larger numbers mean a tougher schedule. The second column is the same thing, just for future games instead of past games.
The third column is the average opponent rating, with an adjustment for the site of games, for previously played games. The fourth column is the average opponent rating for the future games that each team will play. These two columns are the same schedule strength metrics from my previous NFL articles.
In college football, the two approaches to schedule strength would differ more just because the approach used in the first two columns limits the influence of truly lopsided blowout games. In the NFL, there just aren’t that many blowouts, and the teams are more evenly balanced. Therefore, there’s just not too much of a difference in the two approaches to measuring schedule strength.
Schedule Strength for an Average Team
Home advantage: 3.00 points
Mean score: 22.21 points
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
1 Detroit Lions .494 (18) .546 (6) -0.28 (17) 1.57 (7)
2 Houston Texans .527 (11) .528 (14) 0.77 (11) 1.01 (13)
3 Indianapolis Colts .429 (30) .560 (4) -2.49 (30) 2.08 (4)
4 Seattle Seahawks .495 (16) .546 (7) -0.33 (18) 1.55 (8)
5 Denver Broncos .483 (22) .485 (22) -0.70 (22) -0.47 (22)
6 Los Angeles Rams .543 (7) .537 (11) 1.46 (7) 1.19 (11)
7 Kansas City Chiefs .537 (9) .507 (17) 1.22 (10) 0.20 (17)
8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers .548 (6) .450 (26) 1.76 (6) -1.66 (26)
9 Green Bay Packers .436 (28) .545 (8) -2.27 (28) 1.58 (6)
10 Philadelphia Eagles .567 (3) .531 (13) 2.32 (4) 0.98 (14)
11 Minnesota Vikings .434 (29) .568 (1) -2.36 (29) 2.43 (1)
12 Washington Commanders .472 (24) .564 (2) -1.02 (24) 2.17 (3)
13 Buffalo Bills .368 (32) .475 (24) -4.61 (32) -0.88 (24)
14 Pittsburgh Steelers .455 (27) .478 (23) -1.73 (27) -0.76 (23)
15 Jacksonville Jaguars .497 (15) .518 (16) -0.22 (16) 0.65 (15)
16 Los Angeles Chargers .485 (20) .534 (12) -0.49 (21) 1.14 (12)
17 Chicago Bears .532 (10) .495 (19) 1.26 (9) -0.32 (19)
18 San Francisco 49ers .565 (5) .490 (20) 2.39 (3) -0.34 (20)
19 Arizona Cardinals .461 (25) .564 (3) -1.46 (25) 2.31 (2)
20 Atlanta Falcons .505 (12) .489 (21) 0.21 (12) -0.44 (21)
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
21 New England Patriots .388 (31) .389 (32) -3.96 (31) -3.85 (32)
22 Baltimore Ravens .567 (4) .443 (27) 2.10 (5) -1.97 (27)
23 Dallas Cowboys .488 (19) .537 (10) -0.38 (19) 1.39 (9)
24 New York Giants .498 (14) .547 (5) -0.08 (14) 1.71 (5)
25 Miami Dolphins .474 (23) .433 (28) -0.82 (23) -2.40 (28)
26 New York Jets .494 (17) .413 (30) -0.15 (15) -3.10 (30)
27 Carolina Panthers .456 (26) .521 (15) -1.54 (26) 0.64 (16)
28 Las Vegas Raiders .504 (13) .540 (9) 0.11 (13) 1.36 (10)
29 Cincinnati Bengals .592 (2) .426 (29) 3.21 (2) -2.58 (29)
30 Tennessee Titans .615 (1) .503 (18) 4.03 (1) 0.07 (18)
31 New Orleans Saints .484 (21) .474 (25) -0.46 (20) -0.91 (25)
32 Cleveland Browns .539 (8) .407 (31) 1.32 (8) -3.21 (31)Full Season Simulation
These are based on 20,000 simulations of the NFL season using the results from the first three weeks of the season and these ratings to predict the remaining 12 weeks and the postseason. Tiebreakers for making the postseason are simplified, and the simulations don’t factor in potential issues like injuries, but this is still useful for making an educated guess about the standings at the end of the regular season.
Projected Standings
First up is the projected won-loss records, points scored, and points allowed for each team. The rating column is the team’s overall rating, included as a measure of team strength.
AFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
New England Patriots 10.35 6.61 0.05 .610 405.25 343.98 -0.92
Buffalo Bills 10.13 6.83 0.05 .597 449.19 393.96 1.40
Miami Dolphins 5.74 11.21 0.05 .339 382.22 449.48 -4.89
New York Jets 4.64 12.32 0.04 .274 350.87 429.70 -5.99
AFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Pittsburgh Steelers 10.56 6.39 0.05 .623 411.98 377.87 1.10
Baltimore Ravens 6.63 10.33 0.04 .391 437.87 482.37 -1.45
Cincinnati Bengals 6.13 10.83 0.04 .362 356.71 488.17 -7.20
Cleveland Browns 5.01 11.93 0.06 .296 255.47 371.64 -8.21
AFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Indianapolis Colts 11.83 5.13 0.04 .697 484.47 352.60 7.05
Houston Texans 9.90 7.02 0.08 .585 343.88 225.06 7.52
Jacksonville Jaguars 9.38 7.57 0.05 .553 362.28 346.13 0.33
Tennessee Titans 4.35 12.60 0.05 .257 268.88 429.44 -7.66
AFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Denver Broncos 11.14 5.79 0.07 .657 357.83 259.08 5.67
Kansas City Chiefs 9.80 7.16 0.05 .578 416.25 335.89 4.73
Los Angeles Chargers 9.20 7.75 0.05 .543 355.39 362.71 0.28
Las Vegas Raiders 5.30 11.65 0.05 .313 269.64 400.56 -6.82
NFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Philadelphia Eagles 10.12 6.84 0.04 .596 416.62 392.80 3.35
Washington Commanders 8.36 8.60 0.04 .493 440.57 413.06 1.72
Dallas Cowboys 6.30 9.66 1.04 .401 462.90 514.90 -2.80
New York Giants 6.07 10.89 0.05 .358 320.00 396.47 -3.33
NFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Detroit Lions 11.33 5.63 0.04 .668 524.79 403.34 8.14
Green Bay Packers 9.82 6.13 1.05 .608 401.48 340.67 4.25
Minnesota Vikings 9.18 7.77 0.05 .541 409.67 376.54 3.08
Chicago Bears 9.10 7.85 0.05 .537 400.86 409.98 0.18
NFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12.23 4.73 0.04 .720 486.66 404.06 4.62
Atlanta Falcons 8.88 8.06 0.05 .524 326.86 329.99 -0.68
Carolina Panthers 6.42 10.55 0.04 .379 346.35 439.88 -6.76
New Orleans Saints 4.59 12.36 0.04 .271 318.68 441.63 -7.77
NFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Seattle Seahawks 10.89 6.06 0.05 .642 433.66 332.50 6.39
Los Angeles Rams 10.53 6.42 0.05 .621 384.47 314.43 5.02
San Francisco 49ers 9.56 7.39 0.05 .564 348.10 347.53 -0.02
Arizona Cardinals 6.77 10.17 0.05 .400 341.40 364.83 -0.27 Playoff Chances
The next table shows each team’s chances of making the playoffs, winning their division, and having the best record in the conference. The mean playoff seed is an average that uses only the seasons when each team made the playoffs. Div% and Conf% are the probabilities of a team having the best record in their division and conference, respectively.
AFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
New England Patriots -0.92 .610 77.99% 54.36% 5.87% 3.90
Buffalo Bills 1.40 .597 76.05% 45.05% 6.29% 4.13
Miami Dolphins -4.89 .339 1.77% 0.52% 0.00% 5.78
New York Jets -5.99 .274 0.32% 0.08% 0.00% 6.06
AFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Pittsburgh Steelers 1.10 .623 91.81% 89.73% 14.04% 2.98
Baltimore Ravens -1.45 .391 9.64% 6.46% 0.02% 4.76
Cincinnati Bengals -7.20 .362 5.53% 3.33% 0.01% 4.94
Cleveland Browns -8.21 .296 1.01% 0.48% 0.00% 5.30
AFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Indianapolis Colts 7.05 .697 95.33% 69.10% 39.40% 2.76
Houston Texans 7.52 .585 74.09% 20.52% 8.04% 4.78
Jacksonville Jaguars 0.33 .553 56.06% 10.38% 2.85% 5.34
Tennessee Titans -7.66 .257 0.16% 0.00% 0.00% 6.72
AFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Denver Broncos 5.67 .657 89.53% 61.79% 15.14% 3.43
Kansas City Chiefs 4.73 .578 66.23% 25.14% 5.35% 4.68
Los Angeles Chargers 0.28 .543 53.45% 12.98% 3.00% 5.18
Las Vegas Raiders -6.82 .313 1.04% 0.10% 0.00% 6.36
NFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Philadelphia Eagles 3.35 .596 76.88% 70.28% 6.29% 3.48
Washington Commanders 1.72 .493 30.44% 23.01% 0.56% 4.28
Dallas Cowboys -2.80 .401 6.93% 4.59% 0.02% 4.75
New York Giants -3.33 .358 3.50% 2.12% 0.01% 4.90
NFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Detroit Lions 8.14 .668 86.80% 56.18% 22.00% 3.35
Green Bay Packers 4.25 .608 68.75% 26.21% 7.37% 4.48
Minnesota Vikings 3.08 .541 40.41% 10.93% 2.12% 5.11
Chicago Bears 0.18 .537 36.56% 6.68% 1.06% 5.45
NFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4.62 .720 97.48% 91.94% 38.68% 2.21
Atlanta Falcons -0.68 .524 36.41% 7.38% 1.07% 5.39
Carolina Panthers -6.76 .379 3.40% 0.65% 0.03% 5.79
New Orleans Saints -7.77 .271 0.14% 0.03% 0.00% 6.14
NFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Seattle Seahawks 6.39 .642 80.34% 46.42% 9.35% 3.88
Los Angeles Rams 5.02 .621 71.36% 35.86% 9.11% 4.14
San Francisco 49ers -0.02 .564 54.23% 16.95% 2.30% 4.98
Arizona Cardinals -0.27 .400 6.37% 0.78% 0.04% 5.97Possible Regular Season Outcomes
To give a range of how good or bad a team’s final record might be, several percentiles are shown for each team’s final winning percentage.
AFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
New England Patriots .610 88.06% .471 .529 .588 .647 .706
Buffalo Bills .597 85.23% .471 .529 .588 .647 .706
Miami Dolphins .339 4.16% .235 .294 .353 .412 .471
New York Jets .274 0.57% .176 .235 .294 .353 .412
AFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Pittsburgh Steelers .623 89.55% .500 .559 .647 .706 .765
Baltimore Ravens .391 12.16% .294 .353 .412 .471 .529
Cincinnati Bengals .362 6.68% .235 .294 .353 .412 .471
Cleveland Browns .296 1.33% .176 .235 .294 .353 .412
AFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Indianapolis Colts .697 98.32% .588 .647 .706 .765 .824
Houston Texans .585 81.76% .471 .529 .588 .647 .706
Jacksonville Jaguars .553 71.64% .412 .471 .529 .588 .647
Tennessee Titans .257 0.26% .176 .176 .235 .294 .353
AFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Denver Broncos .657 96.00% .529 .588 .647 .706 .765
Kansas City Chiefs .578 79.94% .471 .529 .588 .647 .706
Los Angeles Chargers .543 66.98% .412 .471 .529 .588 .647
Las Vegas Raiders .313 1.62% .235 .235 .294 .353 .412
NFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Philadelphia Eagles .596 84.93% .471 .529 .588 .647 .706
Washington Commanders .493 46.34% .353 .412 .471 .529 .588
Dallas Cowboys .401 8.65% .265 .324 .382 .441 .500
New York Giants .358 5.98% .235 .294 .353 .412 .471
NFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Detroit Lions .668 96.50% .529 .588 .647 .706 .765
Green Bay Packers .608 79.63% .500 .559 .618 .676 .735
Minnesota Vikings .541 65.65% .412 .471 .529 .588 .647
Chicago Bears .537 64.33% .412 .471 .529 .588 .647
NFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .720 99.39% .588 .647 .706 .765 .824
Atlanta Falcons .524 59.43% .412 .471 .529 .588 .647
Carolina Panthers .379 8.37% .294 .294 .353 .412 .471
New Orleans Saints .271 0.56% .176 .235 .294 .353 .412
NFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Seattle Seahawks .642 93.50% .529 .588 .647 .706 .765
Los Angeles Rams .621 89.95% .500 .559 .647 .706 .765
San Francisco 49ers .564 75.08% .471 .529 .588 .647 .706
Arizona Cardinals .400 13.41% .294 .353 .412 .471 .529Postseason Projections
The final table shows each team’s probability of reaching the playoffs, the divisional round, the conference championship, winning their conference, and winning the Super Bowl.
AFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
New England Patriots .610 77.99% 35.47% 12.72% 4.54% 1.47%
Buffalo Bills .597 76.05% 39.35% 16.54% 6.91% 2.88%
Miami Dolphins .339 1.77% 0.48% 0.12% 0.02% 0.01%
New York Jets .274 0.32% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Pittsburgh Steelers .623 91.81% 54.50% 23.63% 9.11% 3.43%
Baltimore Ravens .391 9.64% 3.85% 1.17% 0.46% 0.14%
Cincinnati Bengals .362 5.53% 1.41% 0.29% 0.09% 0.03%
Cleveland Browns .296 1.01% 0.21% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
AFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Indianapolis Colts .697 95.33% 74.25% 47.57% 27.00% 14.92%
Houston Texans .585 74.09% 47.16% 26.85% 16.45% 9.28%
Jacksonville Jaguars .553 56.06% 22.47% 8.11% 3.34% 1.24%
Tennessee Titans .257 0.16% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Denver Broncos .657 89.53% 60.32% 35.49% 18.75% 9.62%
Kansas City Chiefs .578 66.23% 37.47% 18.94% 9.92% 4.83%
Los Angeles Chargers .543 53.45% 22.82% 8.49% 3.42% 1.31%
Las Vegas Raiders .313 1.04% 0.15% 0.03% 0.01% 0.01%
NFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Philadelphia Eagles .596 76.88% 45.98% 20.54% 9.21% 4.38%
Washington Commanders .493 30.44% 15.35% 5.58% 2.43% 1.07%
Dallas Cowboys .401 6.93% 2.50% 0.67% 0.23% 0.06%
New York Giants .358 3.50% 1.14% 0.23% 0.07% 0.03%
NFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Detroit Lions .668 86.80% 63.35% 40.27% 23.94% 13.87%
Green Bay Packers .608 68.75% 37.11% 17.67% 8.86% 4.16%
Minnesota Vikings .541 40.41% 18.36% 7.84% 3.64% 1.59%
Chicago Bears .537 36.56% 13.05% 4.56% 1.88% 0.66%
NFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .720 97.48% 74.40% 42.05% 18.73% 9.36%
Atlanta Falcons .524 36.41% 12.42% 3.75% 1.45% 0.50%
Carolina Panthers .379 3.40% 0.67% 0.10% 0.01% 0.01%
New Orleans Saints .271 0.14% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Seattle Seahawks .642 80.34% 51.43% 28.37% 15.79% 8.53%
Los Angeles Rams .621 71.36% 41.66% 20.91% 10.82% 5.59%
San Francisco 49ers .564 54.23% 20.60% 6.89% 2.73% 0.97%
Arizona Cardinals .400 6.37% 1.96% 0.57% 0.22% 0.06%Analysis
As I mentioned, I want to take a bit more detailed look at the Ravens and the playoff race in the AFC East. I’ve said plenty about the fall of the Ravens so far this season, and I’ll probably try to write about other topics more after this week. But the AFC East race is also surprisingly interesting.
Baltimore Ravens
I’ve already written a lot about the Ravens’ issues this season and hadn’t planned to say too much about them this week. But then I saw that both ESPN’s FPI and Jeff Sagarin’s overall ratings both put the Ravens at #10. Sagarin’s predictor, which only takes into account the score of the game, puts the Ravens at #14. Pro Football Reference also runs their Simple Rating System, which is fairly similar to my own ratings, and they rank the Ravens at #27. If I only use data from the 2025 preseason and regular season, the Ravens drop to #25. However, I believe my actual ranking of #22 is very reasonable, and putting the Ravens at #10 seems very high for any 1-5 team.
To date, the Ravens have played a tough schedule, but it’s not the toughest in the league. It’s ranked #4 based on the expected winning percentage by an average team and ranked #5 based on an average of opponent ratings. For a team with the Ravens’ current rating, they’d be expected to have a .394 winning percentage against the schedule they’ve played to date. Over six games, that’s an expected record of 2-4 or perhaps 3-3, meaning the Ravens have underperformed expectations even based on their current rating. Their -50 point differential is worse than only the Browns, Titans, and Bengals. The average opponent rating for the Ravens to date is 2.10, meaning that over six games, that should lower their point differential by 12.6 points. Against a league average schedule, that would leave an estimated -37.4 point differential against neutral competition, or dividing that by the six games they’ve played to get an expected team rating of -6.23.
The Ravens actually have a rating of -1.45, not -6.23. Despite their 1-5 record and poor point differential, my ratings estimate the Ravens are 4.78 points per game better than what they’ve shown so far during the 2025 regular season. Much of that difference is due to the influence of their +53 point differential during the preseason, +157 point differential during the 2024 regular season, and +12 point differential during their two playoff games last season. The #22 ranking balances that the Ravens have played like a bad team in their six regular season games in 2025, but their 2024 record and 2025 preseason games show that they have the potential to be much better than this. Of all the teams currently at 1-5, the Ravens easily have the highest rating. Ranking the Ravens #10 seems extremely generous for any 1-5 team with a -50 point differential over six games, but a #27 ranking is probably too low for a team that has the potential to be much better. The current ranking of #22 seems very reasonable, in my opinion.
The Ravens have only played one division game so far, a win over the Browns. The AFC North is a particularly weak division with the Bengals and Browns ranked #29 and #32, respectively. The Steelers are ranked #14 with a rating of 1.10 that is just slightly above league average. That gives the Ravens a somewhat viable path to the playoffs if they can turn around their poor play. Their remaining strength of schedule is ranked #27 and on average 4.07 points per game easier than their schedule to date.
New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills
The Patriots are 4-2, currently tied with the Bills atop the AFC East. Both teams have a +30 point differential, too. But many computer ratings including mine place the Bills well ahead of the Patriots. How likely is it that the Patriots will actually win the division?
The average opponent rating for the Patriots so far is -3.96. That means over the first six games, the Patriots’ opponents are a total of -23.76 points below league average, meaning the estimated point differential for the Patriots against an average schedule is just +6.24 points. They’ve played the #31 ranked schedule in the NFL, and only the Bills have played a weaker schedule. The average opponent rating for the Bills’ first six games is -4.61, or a total effect of -27.66. Against an average schedule, their expected point differential for the Bills is just +2.34 points on the season. By those numbers, both teams have played just slightly better than what would be expected for a league average team.
The Bills are rated above the Patriots, and this makes sense because six games is still a fairly small sample size, so the ratings are still influenced significantly by preseason games and especially games last season. The Bills didn’t have a great preseason and finished with a -43 point differential whereas the Patriots had a +6 point differential. The Patriots had a -128 point differential in the 2024 regular season. However, the Bills had a +157 point differential in the regular season and a +23 point differential against good opponents in the postseason. Even though more recent data hasn’t been impressive for the Bills, there’s still reason to believe they’re the better team based on the older 2024 results that have a larger sample size. It seems reasonable to me that the Bills are ranked #13 with a +1.40 rating while the Patriots are ranked #21 with a -0.92 rating.
Even so, it’s very plausible for the Patriots to win the AFC East. Neither team plays a tough schedule going forward with the Bills having the #24 ranked future schedule and the Patriots having the easiest schedule in the league going forward. Although neither the #24 nor #32 schedules are very difficult, the average opponent rating for the Bills going forward is -0.88 compared to -3.85 for the Patriots. This is a very significant difference in the degree of difficulty. Ratings and schedule strengths can be subtracted to compare these between teams and estimate which team actually has the more difficult path to the postseason. For the Bills, their 1.40 rating with a -0.88 future schedule strength is the equivalent of a team rated 2.28 playing a league average schedule over the remaining games. And for the Patriots, their -0.92 rating with a remaining schedule strength of -3.85 is equivalent to a team with a 2.93 rating playing a league average schedule. These are approximations, but the point is that it’s a very evenly balanced race with the Patriots being projected to finish with a slightly better record and having a small edge to win the AFC East. And those numbers do suggest the Patriots have a slight edge.
Week 7 Predictions
The thresholds for close games, blowouts, and high and low scoring games are different in the NFL than in college football. That’s because NFL teams are balanced enough in talent to usually avoid truly lopsided scores and there’s just less scoring overall.
Games are ranked based on the projected quality. This factors in the overall strength of the two teams and the potential for a competitive game. Game quality ratings are not directly comparable between college football and the NFL for many of the same reasons I just mentioned. This is just for predicting which NFL games are most and least compelling each weekend.
Beside each team, there are two numbers in parentheses. One is the predicted margin of victory (positive) or defeat (negative), the other is the probability of winning. In the event that a margin is larger than what’s indicated by the predicted score, that’s because there’s nothing in the math that prevents a forecast of negative points with a sufficiently lopsided matchup. This isn’t even close to possible with the current NFL ratings, even with the weakest offense against the strongest defense, but it does occur once in awhile in college football. A negative score is impossible, of course, so the score would be set to zero in those instances. However, there’s no upper limit on how many points a team can be projected to score. But with more parity between NFL teams, even the highest scoring predictions aren’t going to be nearly as crazy as what is possible with the college football ratings.
#1: Houston Texans (-1.88, 44.06%) at Seattle Seahawks (1.88, 55.51%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 16.04 - 17.93, Total: 33.98
Quality: 94.11%, Team quality: 91.73%, Competitiveness: 99.06%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 19.70%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 18.01%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 6.70%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 47.23%
#2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.51, 30.68%) at Detroit Lions (6.51, 68.93%), Tie (0.39%)
Estimated score: 26.94 - 33.43, Total: 60.37
Quality: 86.27%, Team quality: 84.79%, Competitiveness: 89.30%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 24.64%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 16.10%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 64.90%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 2.55%
#3: Indianapolis Colts (3.77, 61.16%) at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.77, 38.42%), Tie (0.42%)
Estimated score: 26.84 - 23.07, Total: 49.91
Quality: 81.31%, Team quality: 74.73%, Competitiveness: 96.28%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.08%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.46%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 35.83%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 11.41%
#4: Philadelphia Eagles (-2.73, 41.51%) at Minnesota Vikings (2.73, 58.06%), Tie (0.43%)
Estimated score: 21.26 - 23.95, Total: 45.22
Quality: 80.53%, Team quality: 72.99%, Competitiveness: 98.04%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 20.21%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.81%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 24.28%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 19.20%
#5: Los Angeles Rams (1.69, 54.92%) at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.69, 44.64%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 20.10 - 18.38, Total: 38.47
Quality: 78.76%, Team quality: 70.16%, Competitiveness: 99.25%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 19.61%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 18.04%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 11.94%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 34.83%
#6: Green Bay Packers (1.53, 54.44%) at Arizona Cardinals (-1.53, 45.12%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 20.11 - 18.62, Total: 38.73
Quality: 75.09%, Team quality: 65.28%, Competitiveness: 99.38%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 19.55%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 18.07%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 12.30%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 34.16%
#7: Washington Commanders (1.51, 54.40%) at Dallas Cowboys (-1.51, 45.16%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 31.45 - 29.94, Total: 61.38
Quality: 58.82%, Team quality: 45.26%, Competitiveness: 99.39%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 19.54%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 18.07%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 67.55%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 2.15%
#8: Atlanta Falcons (-3.66, 38.74%) at San Francisco 49ers (3.66, 60.83%), Tie (0.42%)
Estimated score: 15.88 - 19.56, Total: 35.44
Quality: 58.11%, Team quality: 45.09%, Competitiveness: 96.49%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 20.98%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.50%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 8.16%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 43.10%
#9: New York Giants (-12.00, 17.72%) at Denver Broncos (12.00, 81.99%), Tie (0.29%)
Estimated score: 9.95 - 21.91, Total: 31.87
Quality: 46.83%, Team quality: 38.85%, Competitiveness: 68.07%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 36.39%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 12.00%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 4.96%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 53.22%
#10: Pittsburgh Steelers (5.31, 65.59%) at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.31, 34.00%), Tie (0.41%)
Estimated score: 27.24 - 21.96, Total: 49.20
Quality: 37.62%, Team quality: 23.96%, Competitiveness: 92.76%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 22.86%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 16.77%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 33.97%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 12.41%
#11: New England Patriots (3.75, 61.10%) at Tennessee Titans (-3.75, 38.48%), Tie (0.42%)
Estimated score: 22.57 - 18.88, Total: 41.44
Quality: 31.55%, Team quality: 18.05%, Competitiveness: 96.32%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.06%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.47%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 16.69%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 27.36%
#12: Las Vegas Raiders (-14.56, 13.10%) at Kansas City Chiefs (14.56, 86.66%), Tie (0.24%)
Estimated score: 12.61 - 27.18, Total: 39.79
Quality: 28.43%, Team quality: 20.12%, Competitiveness: 56.79%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 43.34%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 9.87%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 13.91%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 31.42%
#13: New Orleans Saints (-10.94, 19.91%) at Chicago Bears (10.94, 79.78%), Tie (0.31%)
Estimated score: 16.91 - 27.88, Total: 44.79
Quality: 23.87%, Team quality: 13.68%, Competitiveness: 72.63%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 33.73%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 12.87%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 23.34%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 20.03%
#14: Miami Dolphins (0.32, 50.75%) at Cleveland Browns (-0.32, 48.81%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 18.53 - 18.20, Total: 36.73
Quality: 20.26%, Team quality: 9.12%, Competitiveness: 99.97%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 19.25%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 18.19%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 9.64%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 39.51%
#15: Carolina Panthers (-3.77, 38.43%) at New York Jets (3.77, 61.15%), Tie (0.42%)
Estimated score: 20.82 - 24.54, Total: 45.36
Quality: 20.04%, Team quality: 9.14%, Competitiveness: 96.29%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.08%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.46%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 24.59%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 18.92%My next articles will be about baseball, which I’m very excited to discuss, and then I’ll be posting this weekend’s edition of The Linked Letters After Dark late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. Thanks for reading!
This article uses schedule and score data from Pro Football Reference to calculate my ratings.