NFL Computer Ratings
These ratings are updated for games through October 13, 2025. This week’s ratings weight a game last season at 12% of a game this season, and preseason games are weighted at 24%.
Predictive Rating
These are forward looking ratings, meaning that they’re intended to evaluate how good a team is and predict its future success, but they don’t evaluate the quality of a team’s achievements earlier in the season. These ratings are based purely on points. They don’t factor in wins and losses, only the margin of victory. The ratings don’t explicitly calculate the strength of schedule, though I calculate this afterwards. However, because of how the ratings are calculated, the quality of opponents does influence the ratings.
The offense and defense columns refer to each team’s point scoring tendencies instead of the efficiency ratings that some other rating systems use. The overall rating is approximately the sum of a team’s offense and defense ratings. To predict the score of a game for the home team, take the home team’s offense rating, add half of the home advantage, subtract the visiting team’s defense rating, and add the mean score. Predicting the score is similar for the visiting team. Take the visiting team’s offense rating, subtract half of the home advantage, subtract the home team’s defense rating, and add the mean score. Predicting the margin of victory for a game is done by taking the home team’s rating, adding the home advantage, and subtracting the away team’s rating. For neutral site games, the home advantage is set to zero.
Predictive Ratings
Home advantage: 3.00 points
Mean score: 22.21 points
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
1 8.14 -2.18 Detroit Lions 8.20 -0.08
2 +1 7.52 -0.01 Houston Texans -2.07 9.57
3 -1 7.05 -0.64 Indianapolis Colts 6.99 0.06
4 +3 6.39 +1.22 Seattle Seahawks 3.79 2.60
5 -1 5.67 -1.25 Denver Broncos -1.21 6.85
6 +2 5.02 +1.33 Los Angeles Rams 0.48 4.55
7 +5 4.73 +1.75 Kansas City Chiefs 1.98 2.76
8 +1 4.62 +1.08 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6.15 -1.51
9 -4 4.25 -1.77 Green Bay Packers 0.89 3.34
10 -4 3.35 -2.38 Philadelphia Eagles 2.17 1.20
11 3.08 +0.08 Minnesota Vikings 1.43 1.62
12 +1 1.72 -0.19 Washington Commanders 3.46 -1.73
13 -3 1.40 -1.70 Buffalo Bills 3.30 -1.90
14 +1 1.10 +0.73 Pittsburgh Steelers 0.17 0.93
15 +1 0.33 +0.02 Jacksonville Jaguars -0.79 1.09
16 +2 0.28 +0.39 Los Angeles Chargers -0.58 0.86
17 +2 0.18 +0.45 Chicago Bears 0.38 -0.19
18 -1 -0.02 -0.09 San Francisco 49ers -0.78 0.78
19 +1 -0.27 +0.95 Arizona Cardinals -1.75 1.50
20 +3 -0.68 +2.25 Atlanta Falcons -4.06 3.37
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
21 -0.92 +1.14 New England Patriots -1.29 0.33
22 -8 -1.45 -3.02 Baltimore Ravens 3.61 -5.06
23 -1 -2.80 -0.37 Dallas Cowboys 4.50 -7.27
24 +1 -3.33 +2.53 New York Giants -3.91 0.60
25 -1 -4.89 -0.34 Miami Dolphins -1.46 -3.43
26 -5.99 +0.43 New York Jets -3.10 -2.90
27 +5 -6.76 +1.63 Carolina Panthers -2.80 -3.93
28 +3 -6.82 +1.11 Las Vegas Raiders -5.34 -1.49
29 -1 -7.20 -0.45 Cincinnati Bengals -0.83 -6.35
30 -3 -7.66 -0.99 Tennessee Titans -4.51 -3.14
31 -1 -7.77 -0.45 New Orleans Saints -4.00 -3.79
32 -3 -8.21 -1.14 Cleveland Browns -8.94 0.72 Schedule Strength
The first column is the expected losing percentage (1 minus winning percentage) for a hypothetical average NFL team in each team’s games played to date. Larger numbers mean a tougher schedule. The second column is the same thing, just for future games instead of past games.
The third column is the average opponent rating, with an adjustment for the site of games, for previously played games. The fourth column is the average opponent rating for the future games that each team will play. These two columns are the same schedule strength metrics from my previous NFL articles.
In college football, the two approaches to schedule strength would differ more just because the approach used in the first two columns limits the influence of truly lopsided blowout games. In the NFL, there just aren’t that many blowouts, and the teams are more evenly balanced. Therefore, there’s just not too much of a difference in the two approaches to measuring schedule strength.
Schedule Strength for an Average Team
Home advantage: 3.00 points
Mean score: 22.21 points
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
1 Detroit Lions .494 (18) .546 (6) -0.28 (17) 1.57 (7)
2 Houston Texans .527 (11) .528 (14) 0.77 (11) 1.01 (13)
3 Indianapolis Colts .429 (30) .560 (4) -2.49 (30) 2.08 (4)
4 Seattle Seahawks .495 (16) .546 (7) -0.33 (18) 1.55 (8)
5 Denver Broncos .483 (22) .485 (22) -0.70 (22) -0.47 (22)
6 Los Angeles Rams .543 (7) .537 (11) 1.46 (7) 1.19 (11)
7 Kansas City Chiefs .537 (9) .507 (17) 1.22 (10) 0.20 (17)
8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers .548 (6) .450 (26) 1.76 (6) -1.66 (26)
9 Green Bay Packers .436 (28) .545 (8) -2.27 (28) 1.58 (6)
10 Philadelphia Eagles .567 (3) .531 (13) 2.32 (4) 0.98 (14)
11 Minnesota Vikings .434 (29) .568 (1) -2.36 (29) 2.43 (1)
12 Washington Commanders .472 (24) .564 (2) -1.02 (24) 2.17 (3)
13 Buffalo Bills .368 (32) .475 (24) -4.61 (32) -0.88 (24)
14 Pittsburgh Steelers .455 (27) .478 (23) -1.73 (27) -0.76 (23)
15 Jacksonville Jaguars .497 (15) .518 (16) -0.22 (16) 0.65 (15)
16 Los Angeles Chargers .485 (20) .534 (12) -0.49 (21) 1.14 (12)
17 Chicago Bears .532 (10) .495 (19) 1.26 (9) -0.32 (19)
18 San Francisco 49ers .565 (5) .490 (20) 2.39 (3) -0.34 (20)
19 Arizona Cardinals .461 (25) .564 (3) -1.46 (25) 2.31 (2)
20 Atlanta Falcons .505 (12) .489 (21) 0.21 (12) -0.44 (21)
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
21 New England Patriots .388 (31) .389 (32) -3.96 (31) -3.85 (32)
22 Baltimore Ravens .567 (4) .443 (27) 2.10 (5) -1.97 (27)
23 Dallas Cowboys .488 (19) .537 (10) -0.38 (19) 1.39 (9)
24 New York Giants .498 (14) .547 (5) -0.08 (14) 1.71 (5)
25 Miami Dolphins .474 (23) .433 (28) -0.82 (23) -2.40 (28)
26 New York Jets .494 (17) .413 (30) -0.15 (15) -3.10 (30)
27 Carolina Panthers .456 (26) .521 (15) -1.54 (26) 0.64 (16)
28 Las Vegas Raiders .504 (13) .540 (9) 0.11 (13) 1.36 (10)
29 Cincinnati Bengals .592 (2) .426 (29) 3.21 (2) -2.58 (29)
30 Tennessee Titans .615 (1) .503 (18) 4.03 (1) 0.07 (18)
31 New Orleans Saints .484 (21) .474 (25) -0.46 (20) -0.91 (25)
32 Cleveland Browns .539 (8) .407 (31) 1.32 (8) -3.21 (31)Week 6 Game Predictions
The thresholds for close games, blowouts, and high and low scoring games are different in the NFL than in college football. That’s because NFL teams are balanced enough in talent to usually avoid truly lopsided scores and there’s just less scoring overall.
Games are ranked based on the projected quality. This factors in the overall strength of the two teams and the potential for a competitive game. Game quality ratings are not directly comparable between college football and the NFL for many of the same reasons I just mentioned. This is just for predicting which NFL games are most and least compelling each weekend.
Beside each team, there are two numbers in parentheses. One is the predicted margin of victory (positive) or defeat (negative), the other is the probability of winning. In the event that a margin is larger than what’s indicated by the predicted score, that’s because there’s nothing in the math that prevents a forecast of negative points with a sufficiently lopsided matchup. This isn’t even close to possible with the current NFL ratings, even with the weakest offense against the strongest defense, but it does occur once in awhile in college football. A negative score is impossible, of course, so the score would be set to zero in those instances. However, there’s no upper limit on how many points a team can be projected to score. But with more parity between NFL teams, even the highest scoring predictions aren’t going to be nearly as crazy as what is possible with the college football ratings.
#1: Houston Texans (-1.88, 44.06%) at Seattle Seahawks (1.88, 55.51%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 16.04 - 17.93, Total: 33.98
Quality: 94.11%, Team quality: 91.73%, Competitiveness: 99.06%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 19.70%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 18.01%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 6.70%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 47.23%
#2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.51, 30.68%) at Detroit Lions (6.51, 68.93%), Tie (0.39%)
Estimated score: 26.94 - 33.43, Total: 60.37
Quality: 86.27%, Team quality: 84.79%, Competitiveness: 89.30%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 24.64%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 16.10%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 64.90%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 2.55%
#3: Indianapolis Colts (3.77, 61.16%) at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.77, 38.42%), Tie (0.42%)
Estimated score: 26.84 - 23.07, Total: 49.91
Quality: 81.31%, Team quality: 74.73%, Competitiveness: 96.28%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.08%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.46%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 35.83%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 11.41%
#4: Philadelphia Eagles (-2.73, 41.51%) at Minnesota Vikings (2.73, 58.06%), Tie (0.43%)
Estimated score: 21.26 - 23.95, Total: 45.22
Quality: 80.53%, Team quality: 72.99%, Competitiveness: 98.04%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 20.21%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.81%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 24.28%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 19.20%
#5: Los Angeles Rams (1.69, 54.92%) at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.69, 44.64%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 20.10 - 18.38, Total: 38.47
Quality: 78.76%, Team quality: 70.16%, Competitiveness: 99.25%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 19.61%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 18.04%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 11.94%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 34.83%
#6: Green Bay Packers (1.53, 54.44%) at Arizona Cardinals (-1.53, 45.12%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 20.11 - 18.62, Total: 38.73
Quality: 75.09%, Team quality: 65.28%, Competitiveness: 99.38%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 19.55%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 18.07%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 12.30%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 34.16%
#7: Washington Commanders (1.51, 54.40%) at Dallas Cowboys (-1.51, 45.16%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 31.45 - 29.94, Total: 61.38
Quality: 58.82%, Team quality: 45.26%, Competitiveness: 99.39%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 19.54%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 18.07%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 67.55%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 2.15%
#8: Atlanta Falcons (-3.66, 38.74%) at San Francisco 49ers (3.66, 60.83%), Tie (0.42%)
Estimated score: 15.88 - 19.56, Total: 35.44
Quality: 58.11%, Team quality: 45.09%, Competitiveness: 96.49%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 20.98%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.50%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 8.16%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 43.10%
#9: New York Giants (-12.00, 17.72%) at Denver Broncos (12.00, 81.99%), Tie (0.29%)
Estimated score: 9.95 - 21.91, Total: 31.87
Quality: 46.83%, Team quality: 38.85%, Competitiveness: 68.07%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 36.39%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 12.00%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 4.96%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 53.22%
#10: Pittsburgh Steelers (5.31, 65.59%) at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.31, 34.00%), Tie (0.41%)
Estimated score: 27.24 - 21.96, Total: 49.20
Quality: 37.62%, Team quality: 23.96%, Competitiveness: 92.76%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 22.86%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 16.77%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 33.97%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 12.41%
#11: New England Patriots (3.75, 61.10%) at Tennessee Titans (-3.75, 38.48%), Tie (0.42%)
Estimated score: 22.57 - 18.88, Total: 41.44
Quality: 31.55%, Team quality: 18.05%, Competitiveness: 96.32%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.06%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.47%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 16.69%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 27.36%
#12: Las Vegas Raiders (-14.56, 13.10%) at Kansas City Chiefs (14.56, 86.66%), Tie (0.24%)
Estimated score: 12.61 - 27.18, Total: 39.79
Quality: 28.43%, Team quality: 20.12%, Competitiveness: 56.79%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 43.34%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 9.87%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 13.91%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 31.42%
#13: New Orleans Saints (-10.94, 19.91%) at Chicago Bears (10.94, 79.78%), Tie (0.31%)
Estimated score: 16.91 - 27.88, Total: 44.79
Quality: 23.87%, Team quality: 13.68%, Competitiveness: 72.63%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 33.73%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 12.87%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 23.34%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 20.03%
#14: Miami Dolphins (0.32, 50.75%) at Cleveland Browns (-0.32, 48.81%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 18.53 - 18.20, Total: 36.73
Quality: 20.26%, Team quality: 9.12%, Competitiveness: 99.97%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 19.25%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 18.19%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 9.64%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 39.51%
#15: Carolina Panthers (-3.77, 38.43%) at New York Jets (3.77, 61.15%), Tie (0.42%)
Estimated score: 20.82 - 24.54, Total: 45.36
Quality: 20.04%, Team quality: 9.14%, Competitiveness: 96.29%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.08%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.46%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 24.59%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 18.92%