NFL Season Simulation
This season simulation is based on games and computer ratings through December 29, 2025. The season was simulated 20,000 times, and the results of the simulations have been aggregated to predict final records and playoff chances. Tiebreakers for making the postseason are simplified, and the simulations don’t factor in potential issues like injuries, but this is still useful for making an educated guess about the standings at the end of the regular season.
The playoff probabilities in the final week or two of the season are less accurate with this version of the simulator due to the simplified tiebreakers.
Projected Standings
First up is the projected won-loss records, points scored, and points allowed for each team. The rating column is the team’s overall rating, included as a measure of team strength.
AFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
New England Patriots 13.80 3.20 0.00 .812 480.57 326.55 4.86
Buffalo Bills 11.88 5.12 0.00 .699 480.11 374.23 4.17
Miami Dolphins 7.20 9.80 0.00 .423 353.55 414.57 -5.44
New York Jets 3.12 13.88 0.00 .183 309.23 502.11 -11.30
AFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Pittsburgh Steelers 9.52 7.48 0.00 .560 394.16 385.49 0.50
Baltimore Ravens 8.48 8.52 0.00 .499 422.49 395.16 1.64
Cincinnati Bengals 6.63 10.36 0.00 .390 420.86 491.94 -4.40
Cleveland Browns 4.36 12.63 0.00 .257 278.94 385.86 -7.51
AFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Houston Texans 11.63 5.36 0.00 .684 389.81 283.99 7.47
Jacksonville Jaguars 12.87 4.13 0.00 .757 464.06 344.24 7.27
Indianapolis Colts 8.36 8.63 0.00 .492 454.99 397.81 4.45
Tennessee Titans 3.13 13.87 0.00 .184 292.24 468.06 -7.03
AFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Denver Broncos 13.60 3.40 0.00 .800 404.22 326.80 3.01
Los Angeles Chargers 11.40 5.60 0.00 .671 383.80 343.22 1.37
Kansas City Chiefs 6.80 10.20 0.01 .400 373.34 325.98 2.46
Las Vegas Raiders 2.20 14.80 0.01 .129 238.98 443.34 -11.32
NFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Philadelphia Eagles 11.80 5.20 0.00 .694 387.53 314.88 3.85
Dallas Cowboys 7.49 8.50 1.00 .470 483.77 507.00 -3.03
New York Giants 3.50 13.49 0.00 .206 377.00 451.77 -4.33
Washington Commanders 4.20 12.80 0.00 .247 345.88 459.53 -6.53
NFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Green Bay Packers 9.49 6.50 1.01 .588 406.62 362.82 1.73
Chicago Bears 11.46 5.53 0.00 .674 452.71 424.93 1.04
Detroit Lions 8.53 8.46 0.00 .502 490.93 424.71 4.05
Minnesota Vikings 8.50 8.49 0.01 .500 346.82 348.62 0.28
NFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7.61 9.38 0.01 .448 386.59 415.52 -1.29
Carolina Panthers 8.38 8.61 0.01 .493 315.52 386.59 -3.63
Atlanta Falcons 7.62 9.38 0.01 .448 355.09 400.72 -2.16
New Orleans Saints 6.38 10.62 0.01 .375 305.72 385.09 -5.03
NFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Seattle Seahawks 13.63 3.37 0.00 .802 497.09 311.31 12.14
Los Angeles Rams 11.90 5.10 0.00 .700 515.06 341.81 11.96
San Francisco 49ers 12.37 4.63 0.00 .728 456.31 385.09 5.59
Arizona Cardinals 3.10 13.90 0.00 .182 350.81 485.06 -4.83 Playoff Chances
The next table shows each team’s chances of making the playoffs, winning their division, and having the best record in the conference. The mean playoff seed is an average that uses only the seasons when each team made the playoffs. Div% and Conf% are the probabilities of a team having the best record in their division and conference, respectively.
AFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
New England Patriots 4.86 .812 100.00% 100.00% 81.31% 1.29
Buffalo Bills 4.17 .699 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.72
Miami Dolphins -5.44 .423 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
New York Jets -11.30 .183 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
AFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Pittsburgh Steelers 0.50 .560 65.30% 65.30% 0.00% 4.00
Baltimore Ravens 1.64 .499 34.71% 34.71% 0.00% 4.00
Cincinnati Bengals -4.40 .390 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
Cleveland Browns -7.51 .257 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
AFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Houston Texans 7.47 .684 100.00% 8.33% 0.00% 5.31
Jacksonville Jaguars 7.27 .757 100.00% 91.67% 7.07% 2.65
Indianapolis Colts 4.45 .492 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
Tennessee Titans -7.03 .184 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
AFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Denver Broncos 3.01 .800 100.00% 100.00% 11.62% 2.23
Los Angeles Chargers 1.37 .671 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.80
Kansas City Chiefs 2.46 .400 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
Las Vegas Raiders -11.32 .129 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
NFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Philadelphia Eagles 3.85 .694 100.00% 100.00% 0.00% 2.57
Dallas Cowboys -3.03 .470 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
New York Giants -4.33 .206 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
Washington Commanders -6.53 .247 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
NFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Green Bay Packers 1.73 .588 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.00
Chicago Bears 1.04 .674 100.00% 100.00% 0.00% 2.43
Detroit Lions 4.05 .502 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
Minnesota Vikings 0.28 .500 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
NFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.29 .448 53.14% 53.14% 0.00% 4.00
Carolina Panthers -3.63 .493 46.86% 46.86% 0.00% 4.00
Atlanta Falcons -2.16 .448 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
New Orleans Saints -5.03 .375 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
NFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Seattle Seahawks 12.14 .802 100.00% 63.24% 63.24% 2.47
Los Angeles Rams 11.96 .700 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.43
San Francisco 49ers 5.59 .728 100.00% 36.76% 36.76% 4.09
Arizona Cardinals -4.83 .182 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--Possible Regular Season Outcomes
To give a range of how good or bad a team’s final record might be, several percentiles are shown for each team’s final winning percentage.
AFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
New England Patriots .812 100.00% .765 .824 .824 .824 .824
Buffalo Bills .699 100.00% .647 .706 .706 .706 .706
Miami Dolphins .423 0.00% .412 .412 .412 .412 .471
New York Jets .183 0.00% .176 .176 .176 .176 .235
AFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Pittsburgh Steelers .560 100.00% .529 .529 .588 .588 .588
Baltimore Ravens .499 47.55% .471 .471 .471 .529 .529
Cincinnati Bengals .390 0.00% .353 .353 .412 .412 .412
Cleveland Browns .257 0.00% .235 .235 .235 .294 .294
AFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Houston Texans .684 100.00% .647 .647 .706 .706 .706
Jacksonville Jaguars .757 100.00% .706 .765 .765 .765 .765
Indianapolis Colts .492 36.38% .471 .471 .471 .529 .529
Tennessee Titans .184 0.00% .176 .176 .176 .176 .235
AFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Denver Broncos .800 100.00% .765 .765 .824 .824 .824
Los Angeles Chargers .671 100.00% .647 .647 .647 .706 .706
Kansas City Chiefs .400 0.00% .353 .412 .412 .412 .412
Las Vegas Raiders .129 0.00% .118 .118 .118 .118 .176
NFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Philadelphia Eagles .694 100.00% .647 .706 .706 .706 .706
Dallas Cowboys .470 0.00% .441 .441 .441 .500 .500
New York Giants .206 0.00% .176 .176 .235 .235 .235
Washington Commanders .247 0.00% .235 .235 .235 .235 .294
NFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Green Bay Packers .588 100.00% .559 .559 .559 .618 .618
Chicago Bears .674 100.00% .647 .647 .647 .706 .706
Detroit Lions .502 53.35% .471 .471 .529 .529 .529
Minnesota Vikings .500 50.23% .471 .471 .529 .529 .529
NFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .448 0.00% .412 .412 .471 .471 .471
Carolina Panthers .493 38.30% .471 .471 .471 .529 .529
Atlanta Falcons .448 0.00% .412 .412 .471 .471 .471
New Orleans Saints .375 0.00% .353 .353 .353 .412 .412
NFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Seattle Seahawks .802 100.00% .765 .765 .824 .824 .824
Los Angeles Rams .700 100.00% .706 .706 .706 .706 .706
San Francisco 49ers .728 100.00% .706 .706 .706 .765 .765
Arizona Cardinals .182 0.00% .176 .176 .176 .176 .176Postseason Projections
The final table shows each team’s probability of reaching the playoffs, the divisional round, the conference championship, winning their conference, and winning the Super Bowl.
AFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
New England Patriots .812 100.00% 91.86% 52.59% 23.65% 9.09%
Buffalo Bills .699 100.00% 45.11% 19.65% 9.84% 3.36%
Miami Dolphins .423 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
New York Jets .183 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Pittsburgh Steelers .560 65.30% 25.50% 8.74% 3.46% 0.94%
Baltimore Ravens .499 34.71% 14.88% 5.63% 2.50% 0.73%
Cincinnati Bengals .390 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cleveland Browns .257 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Houston Texans .684 100.00% 57.76% 31.11% 18.81% 8.46%
Jacksonville Jaguars .757 100.00% 65.29% 39.98% 23.10% 10.05%
Indianapolis Colts .492 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Tennessee Titans .184 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Denver Broncos .800 100.00% 61.82% 28.39% 12.55% 4.23%
Los Angeles Chargers .671 100.00% 37.79% 13.91% 6.08% 1.81%
Kansas City Chiefs .400 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Las Vegas Raiders .129 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Philadelphia Eagles .694 100.00% 50.32% 24.32% 8.52% 3.92%
Dallas Cowboys .470 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
New York Giants .206 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Washington Commanders .247 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Green Bay Packers .588 100.00% 43.64% 11.41% 3.69% 1.54%
Chicago Bears .674 100.00% 45.59% 17.72% 4.72% 1.84%
Detroit Lions .502 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Minnesota Vikings .500 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .448 53.14% 11.94% 3.56% 0.95% 0.28%
Carolina Panthers .493 46.86% 8.27% 1.84% 0.40% 0.12%
Atlanta Falcons .448 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
New Orleans Saints .375 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Seattle Seahawks .802 100.00% 92.87% 64.83% 40.19% 27.48%
Los Angeles Rams .700 100.00% 76.14% 46.02% 29.14% 19.98%
San Francisco 49ers .728 100.00% 71.23% 30.29% 12.38% 6.17%
Arizona Cardinals .182 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%