NFL Season Simulation
This season simulation is based on games and computer ratings through December 1, 2025. The season was simulated 20,000 times, and the results of the simulations have been aggregated to predict final records and playoff chances. Tiebreakers for making the postseason are simplified, and the simulations don’t factor in potential issues like injuries, but this is still useful for making an educated guess about the standings at the end of the regular season.
Projected Standings
First up is the projected won-loss records, points scored, and points allowed for each team. The rating column is the team’s overall rating, included as a measure of team strength.
AFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
New England Patriots 13.52 3.46 0.02 .796 454.46 324.24 3.33
Buffalo Bills 11.63 5.35 0.02 .684 484.45 359.64 5.53
Miami Dolphins 7.12 9.86 0.02 .420 354.91 407.91 -5.07
New York Jets 4.54 12.45 0.02 .267 338.58 446.19 -7.29
AFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Baltimore Ravens 8.56 8.42 0.02 .504 411.37 412.84 -0.37
Pittsburgh Steelers 8.41 8.57 0.02 .495 392.73 404.19 -2.06
Cincinnati Bengals 5.71 11.27 0.02 .337 398.99 524.35 -8.60
Cleveland Browns 4.84 12.14 0.02 .285 283.46 384.04 -8.56
AFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Jacksonville Jaguars 10.99 5.99 0.02 .647 421.02 360.22 4.85
Houston Texans 10.42 6.56 0.02 .613 373.21 270.45 8.36
Indianapolis Colts 10.56 6.42 0.02 .622 486.26 375.65 7.85
Tennessee Titans 2.42 14.56 0.02 .143 243.23 445.39 -8.75
AFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Denver Broncos 12.95 4.02 0.02 .763 388.32 304.49 4.04
Kansas City Chiefs 9.54 7.43 0.02 .562 418.37 304.18 6.65
Los Angeles Chargers 9.76 7.22 0.02 .575 370.35 372.15 -0.83
Las Vegas Raiders 2.96 14.02 0.02 .175 238.68 430.60 -10.60
NFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Philadelphia Eagles 11.18 5.80 0.02 .658 384.06 336.16 2.99
Dallas Cowboys 8.67 7.31 1.02 .540 503.06 487.34 -0.28
Washington Commanders 4.92 12.06 0.02 .290 369.97 452.03 -4.71
New York Giants 4.12 12.86 0.02 .243 381.24 464.90 -5.00
NFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Green Bay Packers 11.01 4.97 1.02 .678 407.68 320.52 3.41
Chicago Bears 11.07 5.91 0.02 .652 423.03 432.75 -1.92
Detroit Lions 10.04 6.94 0.02 .591 493.55 396.95 5.28
Minnesota Vikings 5.94 11.04 0.02 .350 325.95 403.23 -4.81
NFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10.24 6.73 0.02 .603 403.66 397.48 1.07
Carolina Panthers 8.52 8.46 0.02 .502 320.46 389.15 -3.10
Atlanta Falcons 5.78 11.20 0.02 .340 334.68 396.18 -2.71
New Orleans Saints 3.98 12.99 0.03 .235 265.65 397.41 -7.68
NFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Los Angeles Rams 12.64 4.34 0.02 .744 472.66 301.87 12.64
Seattle Seahawks 12.44 4.55 0.02 .732 487.64 317.78 11.69
San Francisco 49ers 11.31 5.68 0.01 .665 407.74 355.91 4.87
Arizona Cardinals 4.88 12.10 0.02 .288 364.00 427.23 -0.28 Playoff Chances
The next table shows each team’s chances of making the playoffs, winning their division, and having the best record in the conference. The mean playoff seed is an average that uses only the seasons when each team made the playoffs. Div% and Conf% are the probabilities of a team having the best record in their division and conference, respectively.
AFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
New England Patriots 3.33 .796 99.96% 84.16% 57.38% 1.95
Buffalo Bills 5.53 .684 94.22% 15.84% 7.18% 4.81
Miami Dolphins -5.07 .420 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 6.92
New York Jets -7.29 .267 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
AFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Baltimore Ravens -0.37 .504 53.81% 53.79% 0.00% 3.99
Pittsburgh Steelers -2.06 .495 45.67% 45.41% 0.00% 4.00
Cincinnati Bengals -8.60 .337 0.79% 0.78% 0.00% 4.02
Cleveland Browns -8.56 .285 0.02% 0.02% 0.00% 4.00
AFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Jacksonville Jaguars 4.85 .647 85.89% 39.36% 2.89% 4.52
Houston Texans 8.36 .613 72.69% 29.24% 0.21% 4.90
Indianapolis Colts 7.85 .622 72.17% 31.40% 1.26% 4.72
Tennessee Titans -8.75 .143 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
AFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Denver Broncos 4.04 .763 98.99% 93.66% 30.78% 2.07
Kansas City Chiefs 6.65 .562 39.92% 1.81% 0.00% 6.27
Los Angeles Chargers -0.83 .575 35.73% 4.52% 0.31% 5.88
Las Vegas Raiders -10.60 .175 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
NFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Philadelphia Eagles 2.99 .658 93.81% 91.80% 5.26% 2.90
Dallas Cowboys -0.28 .540 15.88% 8.20% 0.00% 5.03
Washington Commanders -4.71 .290 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 4.00
New York Giants -5.00 .243 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
NFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Green Bay Packers 3.41 .678 88.27% 57.68% 8.67% 3.63
Chicago Bears -1.92 .652 70.05% 33.67% 6.79% 4.37
Detroit Lions 5.28 .591 43.66% 8.64% 0.46% 5.86
Minnesota Vikings -4.81 .350 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 7.00
NFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1.07 .603 82.49% 81.83% 0.32% 3.73
Carolina Panthers -3.10 .502 18.91% 18.11% 0.00% 3.99
Atlanta Falcons -2.71 .340 0.07% 0.07% 0.00% 4.21
New Orleans Saints -7.68 .235 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
NFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Los Angeles Rams 12.64 .744 97.81% 53.29% 40.79% 3.13
Seattle Seahawks 11.69 .732 97.67% 41.34% 33.67% 3.70
San Francisco 49ers 4.87 .665 91.36% 5.38% 4.04% 5.64
Arizona Cardinals -0.28 .288 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--Possible Regular Season Outcomes
To give a range of how good or bad a team’s final record might be, several percentiles are shown for each team’s final winning percentage.
AFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
New England Patriots .796 100.00% .706 .765 .824 .824 .882
Buffalo Bills .684 99.94% .588 .647 .706 .706 .765
Miami Dolphins .420 9.66% .353 .353 .412 .471 .500
New York Jets .267 0.00% .176 .235 .265 .294 .353
AFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Baltimore Ravens .504 52.28% .412 .471 .529 .529 .588
Pittsburgh Steelers .495 46.59% .412 .471 .471 .529 .588
Cincinnati Bengals .337 0.31% .235 .294 .353 .353 .412
Cleveland Browns .285 0.00% .235 .235 .294 .353 .353
AFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Jacksonville Jaguars .647 99.63% .588 .588 .647 .706 .706
Houston Texans .613 97.47% .529 .588 .588 .647 .706
Indianapolis Colts .622 97.66% .529 .588 .647 .647 .706
Tennessee Titans .143 0.00% .059 .118 .118 .176 .235
AFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Denver Broncos .763 100.00% .706 .706 .765 .824 .824
Kansas City Chiefs .562 85.89% .471 .529 .588 .588 .647
Los Angeles Chargers .575 88.87% .471 .529 .588 .588 .647
Las Vegas Raiders .175 0.00% .118 .118 .176 .176 .235
NFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Philadelphia Eagles .658 99.67% .588 .647 .647 .706 .706
Dallas Cowboys .540 57.62% .441 .500 .559 .559 .618
Washington Commanders .290 0.00% .235 .235 .294 .353 .353
New York Giants .243 0.00% .176 .176 .235 .294 .294
NFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Green Bay Packers .678 99.11% .618 .618 .676 .735 .735
Chicago Bears .652 100.00% .588 .588 .647 .706 .706
Detroit Lions .591 93.19% .529 .529 .588 .647 .647
Minnesota Vikings .350 0.86% .294 .294 .353 .412 .412
NFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .603 95.03% .529 .588 .588 .647 .706
Carolina Panthers .502 49.55% .412 .471 .500 .529 .588
Atlanta Falcons .340 0.33% .294 .294 .353 .353 .412
New Orleans Saints .235 0.00% .176 .176 .235 .294 .294
NFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Los Angeles Rams .744 100.00% .647 .706 .765 .765 .824
Seattle Seahawks .732 100.00% .647 .706 .735 .765 .824
San Francisco 49ers .665 100.00% .588 .647 .647 .706 .706
Arizona Cardinals .288 0.00% .235 .235 .294 .324 .353Postseason Projections
The final table shows each team’s probability of reaching the playoffs, the divisional round, the conference championship, winning their conference, and winning the Super Bowl.
AFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
New England Patriots .796 99.96% 79.22% 38.70% 16.16% 5.42%
Buffalo Bills .684 94.22% 55.84% 27.77% 14.45% 5.59%
Miami Dolphins .420 0.12% 0.03% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00%
New York Jets .267 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Baltimore Ravens .504 53.81% 21.83% 6.98% 2.43% 0.66%
Pittsburgh Steelers .495 45.67% 16.57% 4.74% 1.68% 0.39%
Cincinnati Bengals .337 0.79% 0.14% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00%
Cleveland Browns .285 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Jacksonville Jaguars .647 85.89% 43.26% 22.41% 11.38% 4.28%
Houston Texans .613 72.69% 42.99% 25.97% 16.12% 7.86%
Indianapolis Colts .622 72.17% 42.23% 24.94% 14.87% 6.74%
Tennessee Titans .143 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Denver Broncos .763 98.99% 65.34% 33.56% 15.04% 5.34%
Kansas City Chiefs .562 39.92% 20.40% 10.81% 6.30% 2.64%
Los Angeles Chargers .575 35.73% 12.14% 4.08% 1.56% 0.39%
Las Vegas Raiders .175 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Philadelphia Eagles .658 93.81% 48.32% 21.46% 7.24% 3.13%
Dallas Cowboys .540 15.88% 5.72% 1.55% 0.40% 0.14%
Washington Commanders .290 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
New York Giants .243 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Green Bay Packers .678 88.27% 49.21% 21.39% 7.05% 3.23%
Chicago Bears .652 70.05% 27.93% 7.84% 1.86% 0.58%
Detroit Lions .591 43.66% 22.62% 8.83% 3.77% 1.80%
Minnesota Vikings .350 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .603 82.49% 29.71% 10.62% 3.31% 1.43%
Carolina Panthers .502 18.91% 4.89% 1.21% 0.30% 0.08%
Atlanta Falcons .340 0.07% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
New Orleans Saints .235 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Los Angeles Rams .744 97.81% 83.16% 57.30% 37.01% 25.66%
Seattle Seahawks .732 97.67% 79.20% 51.60% 31.78% 21.28%
San Francisco 49ers .665 91.36% 49.21% 18.19% 7.28% 3.33%
Arizona Cardinals .288 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%