NFL Season Simulation
This season simulation is based on games and computer ratings through October 13, 2025. The season was simulated 20,000 times, and the results of the simulations have been aggregated to predict final records and playoff chances. Tiebreakers for making the postseason are simplified, and the simulations don’t factor in potential issues like injuries, but this is still useful for making an educated guess about the standings at the end of the regular season.
Projected Standings
First up is the projected won-loss records, points scored, and points allowed for each team. The rating column is the team’s overall rating, included as a measure of team strength.
AFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
New England Patriots 10.35 6.61 0.05 .610 405.25 343.98 -0.92
Buffalo Bills 10.13 6.83 0.05 .597 449.19 393.96 1.40
Miami Dolphins 5.74 11.21 0.05 .339 382.22 449.48 -4.89
New York Jets 4.64 12.32 0.04 .274 350.87 429.70 -5.99
AFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Pittsburgh Steelers 10.56 6.39 0.05 .623 411.98 377.87 1.10
Baltimore Ravens 6.63 10.33 0.04 .391 437.87 482.37 -1.45
Cincinnati Bengals 6.13 10.83 0.04 .362 356.71 488.17 -7.20
Cleveland Browns 5.01 11.93 0.06 .296 255.47 371.64 -8.21
AFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Indianapolis Colts 11.83 5.13 0.04 .697 484.47 352.60 7.05
Houston Texans 9.90 7.02 0.08 .585 343.88 225.06 7.52
Jacksonville Jaguars 9.38 7.57 0.05 .553 362.28 346.13 0.33
Tennessee Titans 4.35 12.60 0.05 .257 268.88 429.44 -7.66
AFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Denver Broncos 11.14 5.79 0.07 .657 357.83 259.08 5.67
Kansas City Chiefs 9.80 7.16 0.05 .578 416.25 335.89 4.73
Los Angeles Chargers 9.20 7.75 0.05 .543 355.39 362.71 0.28
Las Vegas Raiders 5.30 11.65 0.05 .313 269.64 400.56 -6.82
NFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Philadelphia Eagles 10.12 6.84 0.04 .596 416.62 392.80 3.35
Washington Commanders 8.36 8.60 0.04 .493 440.57 413.06 1.72
Dallas Cowboys 6.30 9.66 1.04 .401 462.90 514.90 -2.80
New York Giants 6.07 10.89 0.05 .358 320.00 396.47 -3.33
NFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Detroit Lions 11.33 5.63 0.04 .668 524.79 403.34 8.14
Green Bay Packers 9.82 6.13 1.05 .608 401.48 340.67 4.25
Minnesota Vikings 9.18 7.77 0.05 .541 409.67 376.54 3.08
Chicago Bears 9.10 7.85 0.05 .537 400.86 409.98 0.18
NFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12.23 4.73 0.04 .720 486.66 404.06 4.62
Atlanta Falcons 8.88 8.06 0.05 .524 326.86 329.99 -0.68
Carolina Panthers 6.42 10.55 0.04 .379 346.35 439.88 -6.76
New Orleans Saints 4.59 12.36 0.04 .271 318.68 441.63 -7.77
NFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Seattle Seahawks 10.89 6.06 0.05 .642 433.66 332.50 6.39
Los Angeles Rams 10.53 6.42 0.05 .621 384.47 314.43 5.02
San Francisco 49ers 9.56 7.39 0.05 .564 348.10 347.53 -0.02
Arizona Cardinals 6.77 10.17 0.05 .400 341.40 364.83 -0.27 Playoff Chances
The next table shows each team’s chances of making the playoffs, winning their division, and having the best record in the conference. The mean playoff seed is an average that uses only the seasons when each team made the playoffs. Div% and Conf% are the probabilities of a team having the best record in their division and conference, respectively.
AFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
New England Patriots -0.92 .610 77.99% 54.36% 5.87% 3.90
Buffalo Bills 1.40 .597 76.05% 45.05% 6.29% 4.13
Miami Dolphins -4.89 .339 1.77% 0.52% 0.00% 5.78
New York Jets -5.99 .274 0.32% 0.08% 0.00% 6.06
AFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Pittsburgh Steelers 1.10 .623 91.81% 89.73% 14.04% 2.98
Baltimore Ravens -1.45 .391 9.64% 6.46% 0.02% 4.76
Cincinnati Bengals -7.20 .362 5.53% 3.33% 0.01% 4.94
Cleveland Browns -8.21 .296 1.01% 0.48% 0.00% 5.30
AFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Indianapolis Colts 7.05 .697 95.33% 69.10% 39.40% 2.76
Houston Texans 7.52 .585 74.09% 20.52% 8.04% 4.78
Jacksonville Jaguars 0.33 .553 56.06% 10.38% 2.85% 5.34
Tennessee Titans -7.66 .257 0.16% 0.00% 0.00% 6.72
AFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Denver Broncos 5.67 .657 89.53% 61.79% 15.14% 3.43
Kansas City Chiefs 4.73 .578 66.23% 25.14% 5.35% 4.68
Los Angeles Chargers 0.28 .543 53.45% 12.98% 3.00% 5.18
Las Vegas Raiders -6.82 .313 1.04% 0.10% 0.00% 6.36
NFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Philadelphia Eagles 3.35 .596 76.88% 70.28% 6.29% 3.48
Washington Commanders 1.72 .493 30.44% 23.01% 0.56% 4.28
Dallas Cowboys -2.80 .401 6.93% 4.59% 0.02% 4.75
New York Giants -3.33 .358 3.50% 2.12% 0.01% 4.90
NFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Detroit Lions 8.14 .668 86.80% 56.18% 22.00% 3.35
Green Bay Packers 4.25 .608 68.75% 26.21% 7.37% 4.48
Minnesota Vikings 3.08 .541 40.41% 10.93% 2.12% 5.11
Chicago Bears 0.18 .537 36.56% 6.68% 1.06% 5.45
NFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4.62 .720 97.48% 91.94% 38.68% 2.21
Atlanta Falcons -0.68 .524 36.41% 7.38% 1.07% 5.39
Carolina Panthers -6.76 .379 3.40% 0.65% 0.03% 5.79
New Orleans Saints -7.77 .271 0.14% 0.03% 0.00% 6.14
NFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Seattle Seahawks 6.39 .642 80.34% 46.42% 9.35% 3.88
Los Angeles Rams 5.02 .621 71.36% 35.86% 9.11% 4.14
San Francisco 49ers -0.02 .564 54.23% 16.95% 2.30% 4.98
Arizona Cardinals -0.27 .400 6.37% 0.78% 0.04% 5.97Possible Regular Season Outcomes
To give a range of how good or bad a team’s final record might be, several percentiles are shown for each team’s final winning percentage.
AFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
New England Patriots .610 88.06% .471 .529 .588 .647 .706
Buffalo Bills .597 85.23% .471 .529 .588 .647 .706
Miami Dolphins .339 4.16% .235 .294 .353 .412 .471
New York Jets .274 0.57% .176 .235 .294 .353 .412
AFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Pittsburgh Steelers .623 89.55% .500 .559 .647 .706 .765
Baltimore Ravens .391 12.16% .294 .353 .412 .471 .529
Cincinnati Bengals .362 6.68% .235 .294 .353 .412 .471
Cleveland Browns .296 1.33% .176 .235 .294 .353 .412
AFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Indianapolis Colts .697 98.32% .588 .647 .706 .765 .824
Houston Texans .585 81.76% .471 .529 .588 .647 .706
Jacksonville Jaguars .553 71.64% .412 .471 .529 .588 .647
Tennessee Titans .257 0.26% .176 .176 .235 .294 .353
AFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Denver Broncos .657 96.00% .529 .588 .647 .706 .765
Kansas City Chiefs .578 79.94% .471 .529 .588 .647 .706
Los Angeles Chargers .543 66.98% .412 .471 .529 .588 .647
Las Vegas Raiders .313 1.62% .235 .235 .294 .353 .412
NFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Philadelphia Eagles .596 84.93% .471 .529 .588 .647 .706
Washington Commanders .493 46.34% .353 .412 .471 .529 .588
Dallas Cowboys .401 8.65% .265 .324 .382 .441 .500
New York Giants .358 5.98% .235 .294 .353 .412 .471
NFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Detroit Lions .668 96.50% .529 .588 .647 .706 .765
Green Bay Packers .608 79.63% .500 .559 .618 .676 .735
Minnesota Vikings .541 65.65% .412 .471 .529 .588 .647
Chicago Bears .537 64.33% .412 .471 .529 .588 .647
NFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .720 99.39% .588 .647 .706 .765 .824
Atlanta Falcons .524 59.43% .412 .471 .529 .588 .647
Carolina Panthers .379 8.37% .294 .294 .353 .412 .471
New Orleans Saints .271 0.56% .176 .235 .294 .353 .412
NFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Seattle Seahawks .642 93.50% .529 .588 .647 .706 .765
Los Angeles Rams .621 89.95% .500 .559 .647 .706 .765
San Francisco 49ers .564 75.08% .471 .529 .588 .647 .706
Arizona Cardinals .400 13.41% .294 .353 .412 .471 .529Postseason Projections
The final table shows each team’s probability of reaching the playoffs, the divisional round, the conference championship, winning their conference, and winning the Super Bowl.
AFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
New England Patriots .610 77.99% 35.47% 12.72% 4.54% 1.47%
Buffalo Bills .597 76.05% 39.35% 16.54% 6.91% 2.88%
Miami Dolphins .339 1.77% 0.48% 0.12% 0.02% 0.01%
New York Jets .274 0.32% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Pittsburgh Steelers .623 91.81% 54.50% 23.63% 9.11% 3.43%
Baltimore Ravens .391 9.64% 3.85% 1.17% 0.46% 0.14%
Cincinnati Bengals .362 5.53% 1.41% 0.29% 0.09% 0.03%
Cleveland Browns .296 1.01% 0.21% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
AFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Indianapolis Colts .697 95.33% 74.25% 47.57% 27.00% 14.92%
Houston Texans .585 74.09% 47.16% 26.85% 16.45% 9.28%
Jacksonville Jaguars .553 56.06% 22.47% 8.11% 3.34% 1.24%
Tennessee Titans .257 0.16% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Denver Broncos .657 89.53% 60.32% 35.49% 18.75% 9.62%
Kansas City Chiefs .578 66.23% 37.47% 18.94% 9.92% 4.83%
Los Angeles Chargers .543 53.45% 22.82% 8.49% 3.42% 1.31%
Las Vegas Raiders .313 1.04% 0.15% 0.03% 0.01% 0.01%
NFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Philadelphia Eagles .596 76.88% 45.98% 20.54% 9.21% 4.38%
Washington Commanders .493 30.44% 15.35% 5.58% 2.43% 1.07%
Dallas Cowboys .401 6.93% 2.50% 0.67% 0.23% 0.06%
New York Giants .358 3.50% 1.14% 0.23% 0.07% 0.03%
NFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Detroit Lions .668 86.80% 63.35% 40.27% 23.94% 13.87%
Green Bay Packers .608 68.75% 37.11% 17.67% 8.86% 4.16%
Minnesota Vikings .541 40.41% 18.36% 7.84% 3.64% 1.59%
Chicago Bears .537 36.56% 13.05% 4.56% 1.88% 0.66%
NFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .720 97.48% 74.40% 42.05% 18.73% 9.36%
Atlanta Falcons .524 36.41% 12.42% 3.75% 1.45% 0.50%
Carolina Panthers .379 3.40% 0.67% 0.10% 0.01% 0.01%
New Orleans Saints .271 0.14% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Seattle Seahawks .642 80.34% 51.43% 28.37% 15.79% 8.53%
Los Angeles Rams .621 71.36% 41.66% 20.91% 10.82% 5.59%
San Francisco 49ers .564 54.23% 20.60% 6.89% 2.73% 0.97%
Arizona Cardinals .400 6.37% 1.96% 0.57% 0.22% 0.06%