NFL Computer Ratings and Predictions for Week 8
Previews of three games that have the potential to shift the ratings significantly this weekend
Week 8 of the NFL season starts this evening when the Minnesota Vikings visit Los Angeles to play the Chargers. However, I’ve identified three games this weekend that are of particular interest to me and have the potential to significantly shift the ratings. These three games are San Francisco-Houston, Green Bay-Pittsburgh, and Washington-Kansas City. I’ll go into more detail about them later in the article.
Another interesting game is Chicago-Baltimore, with the Ravens coming off a bye week and hoping to get their season back on track. Based on the ratings, it’s a fairly even matchup, and it will probably be a good indication of what to expect from the Ravens going forward. However, in my last article, I said I’d stop picking on the Ravens, so I’ll leave them alone this week and discuss the other three games.
As a reminder, I also have landing pages with updated team ratings and simulations of the season, which can be accessed through links on the front page and in the “sports data” tab in the top menu. This week, the ratings weight games from the 2024 season at 8% and games from the 2025 preseason at 16% of a 2025 regular season game. To estimate the impacts of this, I’ll assume that a that played 17 games in 2024, three preseason games in 2025, and seven regular season games so far in 2025. I estimate that the 2025 regular season is responsible for 79.19% of the rating, the 2024 season for 15.38%, and the 2025 preseason for the remaining 5.43%. This is approximate, and there are factors that can increase or decrease the weighting a bit from these values. However, these ratings are mostly due to the 2025 regular season at this point.
Predictive Ratings
These are forward looking ratings, meaning that they’re intended to evaluate how good a team is and predict its future success, but they don’t evaluate the quality of a team’s achievements earlier in the season. These ratings are based purely on points. They don’t factor in wins and losses, only the margin of victory. The ratings don’t explicitly calculate the strength of schedule, though I calculate this afterwards. However, because of how the ratings are calculated, the quality of opponents does influence the ratings.
The offense and defense columns refer to each team’s point scoring tendencies instead of the efficiency ratings that some other rating systems use. The overall rating is approximately the sum of a team’s offense and defense ratings. To predict the score of a game for the home team, take the home team’s offense rating, add half of the home advantage, subtract the visiting team’s defense rating, and add the mean score. Predicting the score is similar for the visiting team. Take the visiting team’s offense rating, subtract half of the home advantage, subtract the home team’s defense rating, and add the mean score. Predicting the margin of victory for a game is done by taking the home team’s rating, adding the home advantage, and subtracting the away team’s rating. For neutral site games, the home advantage is set to zero.
Predictive Ratings
Home advantage: 3.25 points
Mean score: 22.23 points
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
1 9.47 +1.34 Detroit Lions 7.44 2.06
2 +4 8.38 +3.36 Los Angeles Rams 2.03 6.35
3 7.91 +0.86 Indianapolis Colts 7.90 0.01
4 7.14 +0.75 Seattle Seahawks 4.74 2.42
5 -3 6.96 -0.56 Houston Texans -1.69 8.64
6 +1 6.46 +1.73 Kansas City Chiefs 2.15 4.29
7 +3 5.15 +1.80 Philadelphia Eagles 2.98 2.16
8 +1 4.96 +0.71 Green Bay Packers 1.78 3.19
9 -4 4.11 -1.57 Denver Broncos -0.35 4.49
10 -2 3.71 -0.91 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4.59 -0.89
11 2.31 -0.77 Minnesota Vikings 1.16 1.14
12 +6 0.86 +0.87 San Francisco 49ers -0.94 1.76
13 +1 0.54 -0.56 Pittsburgh Steelers 0.83 -0.32
14 -1 0.43 -0.97 Buffalo Bills 2.93 -2.49
15 +2 0.42 +0.24 Chicago Bears 0.47 -0.06
16 +5 0.05 +0.97 New England Patriots -0.59 0.66
17 +6 0.02 +2.82 Dallas Cowboys 6.46 -6.46
18 -6 -0.01 -1.72 Washington Commanders 2.32 -2.36
19 -0.55 -0.28 Arizona Cardinals -1.27 0.72
20 +2 -1.27 +0.18 Baltimore Ravens 3.96 -5.24
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
21 -5 -1.53 -1.81 Los Angeles Chargers -1.27 -0.26
22 -7 -1.76 -2.09 Jacksonville Jaguars -1.47 -0.30
23 -3 -1.80 -1.13 Atlanta Falcons -4.80 3.01
24 -2.07 +1.27 New York Giants -1.52 -0.56
25 +7 -5.59 +2.61 Cleveland Browns -7.90 2.32
26 +1 -5.93 +0.83 Carolina Panthers -4.04 -1.89
27 +2 -6.70 +0.50 Cincinnati Bengals -0.26 -6.47
28 -3 -7.73 -2.85 Miami Dolphins -2.52 -5.23
29 +2 -7.81 -0.04 New Orleans Saints -4.73 -3.11
30 -4 -7.87 -1.88 New York Jets -5.82 -2.08
31 -3 -8.76 -1.94 Las Vegas Raiders -6.97 -1.81
32 -2 -9.34 -1.67 Tennessee Titans -5.70 -3.66 Schedule Strength
This table is a bit different than my college football schedule strength tables because I’m interested in the difficulty each team’s schedule would present for an average NFL team. In college football, I mostly use the schedule strength for a team with a rating 1.5 standard deviations above the FBS mean, but that’s because I’ve found this is useful for strength of record calculations in my playoff predictor. The NFL just uses the standings to determine postseason bids, so I don’t really pay attention to the playoff predictor data very much and also just use a more typical approach for estimating schedule strength.
The first column in this table is the expected losing percentage (1 minus winning percentage) for a hypothetical average NFL team in each team’s games played to date. Larger numbers mean a tougher schedule. The second column is the same thing, just for future games instead of past games.
The third column is the average opponent rating, with an adjustment for the site of games, for previously played games. The fourth column is the average opponent rating for the future games that each team will play. These two columns are the same schedule strength metrics from my previous NFL articles.
In college football, the two approaches to schedule strength would also differ more just because the approach used in the first two columns limits the influence of truly lopsided blowout games. In the NFL, there just aren’t that many blowouts, and the teams are more evenly balanced. Therefore, there’s just not too much of a difference in the two approaches when calculating schedule strength in the NFL.
Schedule Strength for an Average Team
Home advantage: 3.25 points
Mean score: 22.23 points
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
1 Detroit Lions .520 (12) .560 (4) 0.75 (12) 2.20 (4)
2 Los Angeles Rams .548 (7) .534 (12) 1.68 (7) 1.17 (12)
3 Indianapolis Colts .427 (30) .540 (8) -2.67 (30) 1.43 (10)
4 Seattle Seahawks .499 (15) .546 (6) -0.19 (15) 1.67 (6)
5 Houston Texans .563 (6) .488 (22) 2.22 (6) -0.36 (20)
6 Kansas City Chiefs .488 (18) .511 (17) -0.57 (20) 0.39 (17)
7 Philadelphia Eagles .606 (1) .511 (18) 3.74 (1) 0.29 (18)
8 Green Bay Packers .486 (19) .547 (5) -0.56 (19) 1.70 (5)
9 Denver Broncos .456 (26) .493 (19) -1.60 (26) -0.24 (19)
10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers .588 (3) .417 (30) 3.31 (2) -2.87 (29)
11 Minnesota Vikings .464 (24) .586 (1) -1.33 (25) 3.17 (2)
12 San Francisco 49ers .535 (9) .522 (14) 1.51 (8) 0.73 (14)
13 Pittsburgh Steelers .450 (27) .489 (21) -1.78 (27) -0.38 (21)
14 Buffalo Bills .348 (32) .482 (24) -5.49 (32) -0.70 (24)
15 Chicago Bears .474 (23) .541 (7) -0.80 (23) 1.44 (9)
16 New England Patriots .360 (31) .380 (32) -5.05 (31) -4.33 (32)
17 Dallas Cowboys .490 (17) .538 (9) -0.30 (17) 1.46 (7)
18 Washington Commanders .481 (22) .585 (2) -0.79 (22) 3.00 (3)
19 Arizona Cardinals .481 (21) .584 (3) -0.78 (21) 3.17 (1)
20 Baltimore Ravens .594 (2) .443 (26) 3.27 (3) -2.05 (26)
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
21 Los Angeles Chargers .486 (20) .518 (15) -0.48 (18) 0.57 (15)
22 Jacksonville Jaguars .533 (10) .490 (20) 1.06 (10) -0.40 (22)
23 Atlanta Falcons .506 (14) .484 (23) 0.23 (14) -0.66 (23)
24 New York Giants .540 (8) .537 (10) 1.38 (9) 1.45 (8)
25 Cleveland Browns .494 (16) .411 (31) -0.24 (16) -3.16 (31)
26 Carolina Panthers .435 (29) .536 (11) -2.34 (29) 1.18 (11)
27 Cincinnati Bengals .569 (5) .418 (29) 2.47 (5) -2.93 (30)
28 Miami Dolphins .461 (25) .425 (28) -1.33 (24) -2.72 (28)
29 New Orleans Saints .509 (13) .448 (25) 0.43 (13) -1.81 (25)
30 New York Jets .440 (28) .429 (27) -2.08 (28) -2.57 (27)
31 Las Vegas Raiders .530 (11) .525 (13) 1.03 (11) 0.94 (13)
32 Tennessee Titans .585 (4) .513 (16) 3.05 (4) 0.44 (16) Full Season Simulation
These are based on 20,000 simulations of the NFL season using the results from the first three weeks of the season and these ratings to predict the remaining 11 weeks and the postseason. Tiebreakers for making the postseason are simplified, and the simulations don’t factor in potential issues like injuries, but this is still useful for making an educated guess about the standings at the end of the regular season.
Projected Standings
First up is the projected won-loss records, points scored, and points allowed for each team. The rating column is the team’s overall rating, included as a measure of team strength.
AFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
New England Patriots 11.14 5.82 0.05 .656 420.66 329.90 0.05
Buffalo Bills 9.78 7.18 0.04 .576 441.46 399.38 0.43
Miami Dolphins 4.67 12.30 0.04 .276 360.81 475.39 -7.73
New York Jets 3.59 13.36 0.05 .213 308.13 414.14 -7.87
AFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Pittsburgh Steelers 9.73 7.23 0.04 .573 423.18 403.66 0.54
Cincinnati Bengals 7.00 9.97 0.04 .413 376.08 491.67 -6.70
Baltimore Ravens 6.73 10.23 0.04 .397 444.44 485.51 -1.27
Cleveland Browns 6.31 10.62 0.06 .373 278.35 340.85 -5.59
AFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Indianapolis Colts 12.52 4.45 0.04 .737 509.19 353.40 7.91
Houston Texans 9.44 7.49 0.06 .557 356.21 242.43 6.96
Jacksonville Jaguars 8.67 8.29 0.04 .511 349.68 371.36 -1.76
Tennessee Titans 3.60 13.36 0.04 .213 252.37 443.50 -9.34
AFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Denver Broncos 11.06 5.89 0.05 .652 378.87 300.73 4.11
Kansas City Chiefs 10.54 6.42 0.04 .621 429.76 308.85 6.46
Los Angeles Chargers 8.44 8.51 0.04 .498 353.93 385.82 -1.53
Las Vegas Raiders 4.66 12.30 0.05 .275 245.84 415.00 -8.76
NFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Philadelphia Eagles 11.18 5.79 0.04 .658 433.14 381.33 5.15
Dallas Cowboys 7.63 8.33 1.04 .479 499.52 497.51 0.02
Washington Commanders 7.18 9.78 0.04 .424 419.99 439.68 -0.01
New York Giants 6.09 10.87 0.04 .360 360.57 419.21 -2.07
NFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Detroit Lions 11.83 5.14 0.03 .697 507.87 371.42 9.47
Green Bay Packers 10.40 5.56 1.04 .642 418.38 350.04 4.96
Chicago Bears 9.16 7.79 0.04 .540 397.66 411.74 0.42
Minnesota Vikings 8.23 8.73 0.04 .485 403.23 393.14 2.31
NFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11.65 5.32 0.04 .686 449.33 385.51 3.71
Atlanta Falcons 8.14 8.80 0.06 .481 308.41 330.72 -1.80
Carolina Panthers 7.18 9.78 0.04 .423 322.68 399.29 -5.93
New Orleans Saints 4.56 12.40 0.04 .270 303.75 422.45 -7.81
NFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Los Angeles Rams 11.77 5.19 0.04 .694 410.73 283.46 8.38
Seattle Seahawks 11.41 5.55 0.04 .672 448.70 337.33 7.14
San Francisco 49ers 9.98 6.97 0.05 .588 345.27 337.00 0.86
Arizona Cardinals 6.05 10.91 0.04 .357 347.00 383.80 -0.55 Playoff Chances
The next table shows each team’s chances of making the playoffs, winning their division, and having the best record in the conference. The mean playoff seed is an average that uses only the seasons when each team made the playoffs. Div% and Conf% are the probabilities of a team having the best record in their division and conference, respectively.
AFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
New England Patriots 0.05 .656 92.01% 72.37% 11.02% 3.31
Buffalo Bills 0.43 .576 70.20% 27.56% 3.06% 4.72
Miami Dolphins -7.73 .276 0.21% 0.06% 0.00% 5.93
New York Jets -7.87 .213 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% 6.08
AFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Pittsburgh Steelers 0.54 .573 81.72% 77.38% 4.44% 3.53
Cincinnati Bengals -6.70 .413 14.43% 9.00% 0.03% 4.83
Baltimore Ravens -1.27 .397 13.23% 10.10% 0.00% 4.56
Cleveland Browns -5.59 .373 6.44% 3.53% 0.00% 5.11
AFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Indianapolis Colts 7.91 .737 99.05% 86.06% 56.33% 2.02
Houston Texans 6.96 .557 69.16% 10.56% 3.64% 5.32
Jacksonville Jaguars -1.76 .511 40.70% 3.38% 0.80% 5.87
Tennessee Titans -9.34 .213 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 6.83
AFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Denver Broncos 4.11 .652 90.55% 53.52% 10.01% 3.75
Kansas City Chiefs 6.46 .621 84.30% 41.41% 10.38% 4.09
Los Angeles Chargers -1.53 .498 37.70% 5.05% 0.31% 5.78
Las Vegas Raiders -8.76 .275 0.21% 0.01% 0.00% 6.49
NFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Philadelphia Eagles 5.15 .658 91.00% 87.09% 13.92% 3.00
Dallas Cowboys 0.02 .479 17.04% 7.92% 0.07% 5.21
Washington Commanders -0.01 .424 6.75% 4.12% 0.03% 4.86
New York Giants -2.07 .360 2.23% 0.88% 0.01% 5.52
NFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Detroit Lions 9.47 .697 92.20% 61.96% 25.32% 3.23
Green Bay Packers 4.96 .642 79.09% 30.23% 9.56% 4.46
Chicago Bears 0.42 .540 35.05% 4.88% 0.78% 5.71
Minnesota Vikings 2.31 .485 17.50% 2.94% 0.27% 5.81
NFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3.71 .686 95.27% 92.14% 14.83% 2.91
Atlanta Falcons -1.80 .481 16.39% 5.55% 0.11% 5.45
Carolina Panthers -5.93 .423 6.40% 2.25% 0.06% 5.49
New Orleans Saints -7.81 .270 0.07% 0.06% 0.00% 4.29
NFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Los Angeles Rams 8.38 .694 90.09% 49.91% 20.67% 3.63
Seattle Seahawks 7.14 .672 86.36% 38.38% 11.71% 4.18
San Francisco 49ers 0.86 .588 63.08% 11.62% 2.66% 5.42
Arizona Cardinals -0.55 .357 1.49% 0.08% 0.00% 6.36Possible Regular Season Outcomes
To give a range of how good or bad a team’s final record might be, several percentiles are shown for each team’s final winning percentage.
AFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
New England Patriots .656 95.98% .529 .588 .647 .706 .765
Buffalo Bills .576 78.68% .471 .529 .588 .647 .706
Miami Dolphins .276 0.53% .176 .235 .294 .353 .412
New York Jets .213 0.03% .118 .176 .235 .294 .353
AFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Pittsburgh Steelers .573 78.81% .471 .529 .588 .647 .706
Cincinnati Bengals .413 15.65% .294 .353 .412 .471 .529
Baltimore Ravens .397 12.86% .294 .353 .412 .471 .529
Cleveland Browns .373 7.60% .235 .294 .353 .412 .471
AFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Indianapolis Colts .737 99.71% .647 .706 .765 .824 .824
Houston Texans .557 74.54% .471 .500 .559 .618 .647
Jacksonville Jaguars .511 54.70% .412 .471 .529 .588 .618
Tennessee Titans .213 0.06% .118 .176 .235 .235 .294
AFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Denver Broncos .652 95.94% .529 .588 .647 .706 .765
Kansas City Chiefs .621 91.59% .529 .588 .647 .706 .706
Los Angeles Chargers .498 48.03% .412 .412 .471 .529 .588
Las Vegas Raiders .275 0.32% .176 .235 .294 .353 .353
NFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Philadelphia Eagles .658 96.47% .529 .588 .647 .706 .765
Dallas Cowboys .479 28.83% .382 .441 .500 .559 .618
Washington Commanders .424 19.13% .294 .353 .412 .471 .529
New York Giants .360 5.56% .235 .294 .353 .412 .471
NFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Detroit Lions .697 98.65% .588 .647 .706 .765 .824
Green Bay Packers .642 89.28% .500 .559 .618 .676 .735
Chicago Bears .540 66.11% .412 .471 .529 .588 .647
Minnesota Vikings .485 43.24% .353 .412 .471 .529 .588
NFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .686 98.39% .588 .647 .706 .765 .765
Atlanta Falcons .481 40.26% .353 .412 .471 .529 .588
Carolina Panthers .423 16.63% .294 .353 .412 .471 .529
New Orleans Saints .270 0.32% .176 .235 .294 .353 .353
NFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Los Angeles Rams .694 98.63% .588 .647 .706 .765 .824
Seattle Seahawks .672 97.47% .588 .588 .647 .706 .765
San Francisco 49ers .588 84.53% .471 .529 .588 .647 .706
Arizona Cardinals .357 4.40% .235 .294 .353 .412 .471Postseason Projections
The final table shows each team’s probability of reaching the playoffs, the divisional round, the conference championship, winning their conference, and winning the Super Bowl.
AFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
New England Patriots .656 92.01% 49.52% 19.77% 6.88% 2.12%
Buffalo Bills .576 70.20% 31.99% 11.55% 4.30% 1.42%
Miami Dolphins .276 0.21% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
New York Jets .213 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Pittsburgh Steelers .573 81.72% 43.82% 16.48% 6.33% 2.20%
Cincinnati Bengals .413 14.43% 4.00% 0.73% 0.19% 0.04%
Baltimore Ravens .397 13.23% 5.70% 1.76% 0.64% 0.15%
Cleveland Browns .373 6.44% 1.88% 0.39% 0.10% 0.02%
AFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Indianapolis Colts .737 99.05% 85.93% 59.51% 34.01% 18.14%
Houston Texans .557 69.16% 40.37% 20.94% 12.58% 6.13%
Jacksonville Jaguars .511 40.70% 13.74% 3.74% 1.37% 0.44%
Tennessee Titans .213 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Denver Broncos .652 90.55% 54.91% 29.12% 13.98% 5.98%
Kansas City Chiefs .621 84.30% 55.62% 32.34% 18.28% 9.35%
Los Angeles Chargers .498 37.70% 12.45% 3.67% 1.33% 0.34%
Las Vegas Raiders .275 0.21% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Philadelphia Eagles .658 91.00% 59.51% 28.38% 12.55% 6.30%
Dallas Cowboys .479 17.04% 5.99% 1.59% 0.66% 0.23%
Washington Commanders .424 6.75% 2.49% 0.69% 0.32% 0.09%
New York Giants .360 2.23% 0.66% 0.14% 0.06% 0.02%
NFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Detroit Lions .697 92.20% 69.14% 44.68% 26.09% 15.81%
Green Bay Packers .642 79.09% 41.82% 19.12% 8.33% 4.03%
Chicago Bears .540 35.05% 11.28% 3.35% 1.19% 0.41%
Minnesota Vikings .485 17.50% 6.35% 2.15% 1.01% 0.43%
NFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .686 95.27% 59.49% 26.28% 10.92% 4.87%
Atlanta Falcons .481 16.39% 4.93% 1.25% 0.41% 0.16%
Carolina Panthers .423 6.40% 1.32% 0.24% 0.07% 0.01%
New Orleans Saints .270 0.07% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Los Angeles Rams .694 90.09% 62.04% 37.23% 20.71% 12.21%
Seattle Seahawks .672 86.36% 52.45% 27.80% 15.05% 8.15%
San Francisco 49ers .588 63.08% 22.08% 7.00% 2.60% 0.94%
Arizona Cardinals .357 1.49% 0.43% 0.09% 0.04% 0.01%Games of Interest
As I said in my introduction, I’ve highlighted three games that are particularly interesting to me this weekend: San Francisco-Houston, Green Bay-Pittsburgh, and Washington-Kansas City. I’d like to go into a bit more detail about why these particular games are so interesting.
San Francisco-Houston
Just based on the standings alone, the 5-2 49ers might appear to be the favorite over 2-4 Houston. It’s a bit surprising to see a 2-4 team rated #5, but the Texans have a strong point differential of +39 and have played the #6 ranked schedule to date. Because the predictive ratings are based purely on points, Houston is highly rated despite their unimpressive record. The 49ers don’t have a strong point differential, which is just +7 even with their 5-2 record, but they have also played the #9 most difficult schedule. Their point differential would probably be a bit stronger if they played a league average schedule, though it still wouldn’t be especially impressive compared to their record. Add in the 3.25 point home advantage that also benefits Houston, and they’re a significant favorite in this game despite just having a 2-4 record.
I view this game as a test for whether the points ratings for either team are currently a good measure of their strength. If Houston wins by seven or ten points, it would appear to validate the ratings. Although I consider points ratings to be the best predictor of a team’s future success, we’re less than halfway through the season, and that means there’s still a fairly small sample size of games. If the 49ers win this game, even in a close game, that should give them a significant boost in the ratings while continuing to lower the Texans.
Green Bay-Pittsburgh
The Packers have a +33 point differential and a 4-1-1 record, though against a slightly below average schedule to date. The real question is the actual strength of the Steelers, who are 4-2 with a +10 point differential against the #27 ranked schedule. The NFC South are AFC North are particularly weak divisions this season, and the Steelers appear to be the strongest team among very weak competition in their division. My ratings predict that the Packers are a 1.18 point favorite in this game, but that’s with the Steelers getting the benefit of a 3.25 point home advantage. If the Steelers win this game in any sort of convincing fashion, it would help to validate them as the clear favorite in a particularly weak division.
On the basis of winning percentage, the Packers are in first place in the very tough NFC North. The second place Lions, at 5-2, are at the top of the league with a 9.47 predictive rating, compared to the 4.96 rating for the Packers. Although the Packers haven’t played a particularly difficult schedule to date, playing in a strong division gives them the #5 ranked schedule going forward. The season simulations favor the Lions to win the division, which isn’t surprising with their predictive rating. Winning at Pittsburgh, especially if the margin is larger than a one score game, should move the Packers closer to the Lions in the predictive ratings. How competitive will the NFC North be later in the season? This game will help to answer that question.
Washington-Kansas City
In my preseason ratings, I was somewhat dismissive of the Chiefs, criticizing their poor point differential in recent seasons and arguing that they probably weren’t that strong of a team. Despite a 4-3 record, they have a +62 point differential against a schedule that’s slightly below league average. Washington’s rating and point differential doesn’t deviate too far from their 3-4 record against a below average schedule. The Commanders have the #18 predictive rating, and that seems to be a pretty good assessment of the strength of the team right now. In this game, it’s the Chiefs that seem like a bit of an unknown. They have the #6 predictive rating, but their record doesn’t quite fit that rating. My prediction system makes them a 9.71 point favorite in this game, with a 76.48% chance of winning. If the ratings are correct, the Chiefs shouldn’t just win but also do so emphatically. If the Chiefs win in a blowout, their predictive rating would probably increase next week. But there’s more potential downside to their rating, even if they just win in a close game. Although the Commanders are roughly a league average opponent, this game is an opportunity for the Chiefs to validate their very strong predictive rating.
Week 8 Predictions
The thresholds for close games, blowouts, and high and low scoring games are different in the NFL than in college football. That’s because NFL teams are balanced enough in talent to usually avoid truly lopsided scores and there’s just less scoring overall.
Games are ranked based on the projected quality. This factors in the overall strength of the two teams and the potential for a competitive game. Game quality ratings are not directly comparable between college football and the NFL for many of the same reasons I just mentioned. This is just for predicting which NFL games are most and least compelling each weekend.
Beside each team, there are two numbers in parentheses. One is the predicted margin of victory (positive) or defeat (negative), the other is the probability of winning. In the event that a margin is larger than what’s indicated by the predicted score, that’s because there’s nothing in the math that prevents a forecast of negative points with a sufficiently lopsided matchup. This isn’t even close to possible with the current NFL ratings, even with the weakest offense against the strongest defense, but it does occur once in awhile in college football. A negative score is impossible, of course, so the score would be set to zero in those instances. However, there’s no upper limit on how many points a team can be projected to score. But with more parity between NFL teams, even the highest scoring predictions aren’t going to be nearly as crazy as what is possible with the college football ratings.
#1: Green Bay Packers (1.18, 53.29%) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.18, 46.27%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 22.70 - 21.49, Total: 44.20
Quality: 78.24%, Team quality: 69.32%, Competitiveness: 99.66%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 20.48%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.71%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 20.26%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 21.48%
#2: San Francisco 49ers (-9.35, 24.02%) at Houston Texans (9.35, 75.63%), Tie (0.35%)
Estimated score: 11.02 - 20.39, Total: 31.42
Quality: 69.57%, Team quality: 64.68%, Competitiveness: 80.47%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 30.76%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 13.97%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 4.15%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 54.45%
#3: Dallas Cowboys (-7.33, 28.97%) at Denver Broncos (7.33, 70.64%), Tie (0.39%)
Estimated score: 22.58 - 29.96, Total: 52.54
Quality: 65.95%, Team quality: 57.26%, Competitiveness: 87.51%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 26.87%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 15.33%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 40.35%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 8.41%
#4: Washington Commanders (-9.71, 23.18%) at Kansas City Chiefs (9.71, 76.48%), Tie (0.34%)
Estimated score: 18.63 - 28.36, Total: 46.99
Quality: 65.50%, Team quality: 59.61%, Competitiveness: 79.09%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 31.54%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 13.70%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 26.26%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 16.18%
#5: Minnesota Vikings (0.59, 51.54%) at Los Angeles Chargers (-0.59, 48.01%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 22.03 - 21.44, Total: 43.47
Quality: 65.30%, Team quality: 52.79%, Competitiveness: 99.91%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 20.35%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.76%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 18.84%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 23.02%
#6: Chicago Bears (-1.55, 45.15%) at Baltimore Ravens (1.55, 54.40%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 26.31 - 27.86, Total: 54.17
Quality: 59.88%, Team quality: 46.47%, Competitiveness: 99.40%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 20.61%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.66%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 44.88%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 6.76%
#7: New York Giants (-10.46, 21.51%) at Philadelphia Eagles (10.46, 78.16%), Tie (0.33%)
Estimated score: 16.91 - 27.39, Total: 44.30
Quality: 55.18%, Team quality: 46.96%, Competitiveness: 76.19%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 33.21%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 13.15%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 20.47%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 21.26%
#8: Buffalo Bills (3.11, 59.00%) at Carolina Panthers (-3.11, 40.56%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 25.43 - 22.30, Total: 47.73
Quality: 43.98%, Team quality: 29.52%, Competitiveness: 97.62%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.53%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.30%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 27.97%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 14.95%
#9: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8.27, 73.03%) at New Orleans Saints (-8.27, 26.60%), Tie (0.37%)
Estimated score: 28.30 - 20.01, Total: 48.31
Quality: 40.91%, Team quality: 28.49%, Competitiveness: 84.37%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 28.59%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 14.72%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 29.37%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 14.01%
#10: Cleveland Browns (-8.89, 25.11%) at New England Patriots (8.89, 74.53%), Tie (0.36%)
Estimated score: 12.05 - 20.94, Total: 32.99
Quality: 35.79%, Team quality: 23.62%, Competitiveness: 82.18%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 29.80%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 14.30%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 5.23%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 50.04%
#11: Miami Dolphins (-9.18, 24.43%) at Atlanta Falcons (9.18, 75.22%), Tie (0.35%)
Estimated score: 15.07 - 24.28, Total: 39.36
Quality: 25.25%, Team quality: 14.09%, Competitiveness: 81.12%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 30.40%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 14.09%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 12.02%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 32.70%
#12: Tennessee Titans (-20.49, 6.18%) at Indianapolis Colts (20.49, 93.69%), Tie (0.14%)
Estimated score: 14.90 - 35.41, Total: 50.31
Quality: 19.12%, Team quality: 14.11%, Competitiveness: 35.12%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 60.57%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 5.58%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 34.40%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 11.11%
#13: New York Jets (-4.41, 36.84%) at Cincinnati Bengals (4.41, 62.73%), Tie (0.43%)
Estimated score: 21.25 - 25.67, Total: 46.92
Quality: 18.50%, Team quality: 8.15%, Competitiveness: 95.28%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 22.74%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 16.84%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 26.10%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 16.31%I plan to post a couple more college football articles this weekend, including a more detailed preview of Saturday’s games. Thanks for reading!
This article uses schedule and score data from Pro Football Reference to calculate my ratings.