NFL Conference Championship Predictions
A quick update to the computer ratings for this weekend
Lumen Field in Seattle is the site of the NFC championship game this afternoon between the Seahawks and Rams. My ratings give the Seahawks an edge due to the Seahawks being rated higher and having the home advantage. The Patriots will need to win on the road against the Broncos if they’re going to advance to the Super Bowl. My ratings give the Patriots a slight edge with this being a road game, but the model might be slightly underestimating the Patriots’ chances today. In my previous ratings article, I posted stats showing how much team improved or regressed during the season, and the Patriots were among the teams that improved most. Because the ratings represent the quality of teams over the entire season, the Patriots might actually be better right now than their predictive rating indicates.
It’s a tiny sample size, so take it for what it’s worth, but I suggested that the Bears and Patriots might outperform the prediction for their games. Although the Bears ultimately lost in overtime, both teams did play better than their predictions last week. It will be interesting to see if that holds up this week, and if the Patriots win a bit more decisively than the slight edge given to them in the predictions.
At this point of the postseason, there’s little movement in the ratings, so I’ll just post a quick update to the ratings and then have the probabilities for today’s games.
Predictive Ratings
These are the predictive ratings you’ve been used to seeing all season, updated through the divisional round games. Again, there’s little movement among the teams just because there aren’t many games to change the ratings.
Predictive Ratings
Home advantage: 2.01 points
Mean score: 22.43 points
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
1 13.88 +0.92 Seattle Seahawks 6.71 7.16
2 11.29 -0.45 Los Angeles Rams 7.67 3.62
3 8.09 -0.77 Houston Texans 1.09 6.97
4 7.70 -0.19 Jacksonville Jaguars 4.59 3.14
5 +1 6.58 +0.76 New England Patriots 3.51 3.08
6 +1 4.89 -0.11 Buffalo Bills 5.29 -0.39
7 -2 4.76 -1.15 San Francisco 49ers 3.19 1.56
8 4.17 -0.25 Indianapolis Colts 5.38 -1.21
9 4.06 +0.03 Detroit Lions 5.18 -1.09
10 3.62 +0.16 Denver Broncos 0.65 2.94
11 2.49 -0.14 Philadelphia Eagles -2.06 4.56
12 1.73 -0.05 Kansas City Chiefs -1.90 3.61
13 1.45 -0.00 Baltimore Ravens 1.86 -0.36
14 +1 1.16 +0.28 Chicago Bears 2.34 -1.20
15 -1 1.14 +0.06 Green Bay Packers -0.21 1.36
16 0.92 +0.21 Minnesota Vikings -3.04 3.99
17 0.38 +0.05 Los Angeles Chargers -1.81 2.20
18 -0.31 +0.11 Pittsburgh Steelers -0.37 0.06
19 -1.12 +0.10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.16 -1.29
20 -2.21 -0.04 Atlanta Falcons -1.88 -0.35
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
21 -3.11 -0.01 Carolina Panthers -4.10 1.00
22 -3.55 +0.02 New York Giants -0.74 -2.83
23 -3.88 +0.12 Dallas Cowboys 4.59 -8.51
24 +1 -4.67 +0.02 New Orleans Saints -5.07 0.37
25 +1 -4.73 +0.09 Cincinnati Bengals 1.62 -6.33
26 -2 -4.73 -0.09 Arizona Cardinals -1.42 -3.32
27 -5.85 +0.14 Washington Commanders -2.12 -3.76
28 -6.40 +0.05 Miami Dolphins -3.78 -2.63
29 -7.52 +0.03 Cleveland Browns -7.84 0.33
30 -7.86 -0.12 Tennessee Titans -3.99 -3.90
31 -10.68 +0.01 Las Vegas Raiders -8.00 -2.68
32 -11.75 +0.14 New York Jets -5.55 -6.20 Conference Championship Predictions
Let’s get to the game predictions. There are no ties in the postseason, so the predictions look slightly different than during the regular season. As I suggested, the ratings might be underestimating the Patriots’ chances against Denver because the ratings represent a team’s overall quality throughout the season, but the Patriots have improved over the course of the season.
#1: Los Angeles Rams (-4.60, 36.64%) at Seattle Seahawks (4.60, 63.36%)
Estimated score: 21.94 - 26.53, Total: 48.46
Quality: 96.59%, Team quality: 97.49%, Competitiveness: 94.82%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 23.73%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 16.61%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 29.87%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 13.93%
#2: New England Patriots (0.96, 52.83%) at Denver Broncos (-0.96, 47.17%)
Estimated score: 21.99 - 21.01, Total: 43.00
Quality: 86.21%, Team quality: 80.14%, Competitiveness: 99.77%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.27%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.58%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 18.11%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 24.18%Thanks for reading!
This article uses data from Pro Football Reference to calculate the ratings.