NFL Computer Ratings and Divisional Round Predictions
A look at which NFL teams improved or regressed the most during the season
It’s the second weekend of the NFL playoffs, and that means it’s time to post some updated predictions for this weekend’s games.
Many of the tables you’re used to seeing during the regular season won’t be posted here because they’re not all that relevant at this point of the year. Instead, I’ll post the predictive ratings that you’re used to seeing, and then I’ll post a new product intending to show if each team improved or regressed during the season. And then I’ll get to predictions for this weekend’s games.
Predictive Ratings
Alright, so here are the forward looking predictive ratings you’re used to seeing.
Predictive Ratings
Home advantage: 1.90 points
Mean score: 22.42 points
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
1 12.95 +0.00 Seattle Seahawks 6.27 6.70
2 11.74 -0.38 Los Angeles Rams 8.40 3.33
3 +1 8.86 +0.97 Houston Texans 1.42 7.45
4 -1 7.89 -0.45 Jacksonville Jaguars 4.71 3.15
5 5.90 +0.31 San Francisco 49ers 3.71 2.20
6 5.82 +0.35 New England Patriots 3.07 2.77
7 5.00 +0.56 Buffalo Bills 4.98 0.02
8 4.42 +0.03 Indianapolis Colts 5.52 -1.12
9 4.03 -0.16 Detroit Lions 5.06 -1.04
10 3.46 -0.07 Denver Broncos 0.12 3.33
11 2.63 -0.30 Philadelphia Eagles -2.01 4.62
12 1.78 -0.06 Kansas City Chiefs -1.81 3.60
13 1.46 -0.01 Baltimore Ravens 1.79 -0.37
14 1.09 -0.13 Green Bay Packers -0.29 1.37
15 0.88 -0.04 Chicago Bears 2.68 -1.81
16 0.71 -0.14 Minnesota Vikings -3.20 3.90
17 0.34 -0.46 Los Angeles Chargers -1.83 2.16
18 -0.42 -0.91 Pittsburgh Steelers -0.45 0.03
19 -1.21 +0.17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.13 -1.34
20 -2.17 +0.10 Atlanta Falcons -1.86 -0.32
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
21 -3.10 +0.46 Carolina Panthers -4.12 1.05
22 -3.57 +0.00 New York Giants -0.71 -2.88
23 -4.00 -0.07 Dallas Cowboys 4.58 -8.57
24 -4.64 +0.05 Arizona Cardinals -1.38 -3.29
25 +1 -4.69 +0.14 New Orleans Saints -5.11 0.40
26 -1 -4.82 -0.05 Cincinnati Bengals 1.57 -6.39
27 -5.99 -0.11 Washington Commanders -2.18 -3.82
28 -6.44 +0.11 Miami Dolphins -3.76 -2.72
29 -7.54 -0.06 Cleveland Browns -7.88 0.34
30 -7.75 +0.03 Tennessee Titans -3.94 -3.82
31 -10.69 +0.02 Las Vegas Raiders -8.00 -2.67
32 -11.89 +0.14 New York Jets -5.56 -6.32 They haven’t changed that much since last weekend, and there weren’t as many games to move teams up or down. Yes, it’s possible for teams that haven’t played to move up or down in the ratings based on what opponents they played earlier in the season did last weekend. It’s possible that the Panthers’ strong performance against the Rams was impressive enough that it indirectly boosted the ratings of other teams that played the Panthers. And that could be why the Saints moved up a spot from last weekend.
Regular Season Trends
Unlike the predictive ratings in the previous season, the regular season trends are only based on data during the regular season. These are intended to show which teams improved or regressed the most from the beginning to the end of the regular season. The predictive ratings measure how well a team outscores its opponents over the entire season. But if a team outscores its opponents by large margins at the start of the season, then just narrowly wins their games at the end of the season, it’s a sign that the team might have regressed during the season. Or a team that gets outscored at the beginning of the season but starts winning at the end of the season has probably improved. These trends get averaged out in the predictive ratings, but they might be useful to show which teams are playing better or worse right now than their predictive rating indicates. I’ll get into more detail about this in a future article, where I’ll explain how these are calculated.
When testing out a new product, I always look to see if the data matches what I intuitively assume it should show. The Patriots, Bears, and Jaguars were three teams that seemed to get better as the season went on. Early in the season, I commented on how the Chiefs had a strong scoring margin, but that it hadn’t translated into wins. That margin went down later in the season, and they finished out of the playoffs. Intuitively, it makes sense that they’re at the bottom of the list. All of the NFC West teams appeared to be at least as good as the league average at the start of the season. Considering how the Cardinals finished the season, it’s not surprising to see them near the bottom. It’s also not too surprising to see the Colts and Lions near the bottom based on how strong those teams looked back in September and October, then missing the playoffs.
Overall Trend
Rank Trend Team Rating
1 +5.63 Jacksonville Jaguars 8.34 (3)
2 +4.92 New England Patriots 5.47 (6)
3 +4.91 Cincinnati Bengals -4.77 (25)
4 +4.46 Chicago Bears 0.91 (15)
5 +3.55 New York Giants -3.57 (22)
6 +3.23 New Orleans Saints -4.83 (26)
7 +2.91 Minnesota Vikings 0.85 (16)
8 +2.39 Seattle Seahawks 12.95 (1)
9 +2.20 Baltimore Ravens 1.47 (13)
10 +1.58 Cleveland Browns -7.49 (29)
11 +1.47 Atlanta Falcons -2.27 (20)
12 +1.39 San Francisco 49ers 5.59 (5)
13 +1.15 Los Angeles Chargers 0.80 (17)
14 +0.98 Tennessee Titans -7.78 (30)
15 +0.94 Buffalo Bills 4.44 (7)
16 +0.77 Carolina Panthers -3.56 (21)
17 +0.43 Denver Broncos 3.53 (10)
18 +0.13 Pittsburgh Steelers 0.48 (18)
19 +0.11 Los Angeles Rams 12.12 (2)
20 -0.64 Miami Dolphins -6.56 (28)
Rank Trend Team Rating
21 -1.17 Philadelphia Eagles 2.93 (11)
22 -1.34 Houston Texans 7.89 (4)
23 -1.74 Las Vegas Raiders -10.70 (31)
24 -2.42 Washington Commanders -5.88 (27)
25 -2.51 Dallas Cowboys -3.93 (23)
26 -2.90 Green Bay Packers 1.21 (14)
27 -3.78 Detroit Lions 4.19 (9)
28 -4.03 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.38 (19)
29 -5.30 Indianapolis Colts 4.39 (8)
30 -5.32 New York Jets -12.02 (32)
31 -5.77 Arizona Cardinals -4.69 (24)
32 -6.42 Kansas City Chiefs 1.84 (12) And I’ve also repeated this for the offense and defense ratings. A positive offense trend means that a team generally scored more points as the season went on. And a positive defense trend means that a team allowed fewer points toward the end of the season. Of interest is that this nearly balances out for the Rams, with a +0.11 overall trend, but they’re at the top of the offense trends and near the bottom of the defense trends. These ratings are not efficiencies, meaning that they aren’t adjusted for pace of play. I don’t intend them to measure the quality of a team’s offense or defense, just the tendency to score or prevent the other team from scoring, respectively. So this doesn’t necessarily mean that the Rams’ offense has improved while their defense has become a liability. It just means that the Rams have been involved in more high scoring games toward the end of the season, and their actual results during the season seem to support that.
Offense Trend
Rank Trend Team Offense
1 +3.61 Los Angeles Rams 8.08 (1)
2 +3.48 Jacksonville Jaguars 4.98 (5)
3 +3.09 San Francisco 49ers 3.62 (9)
4 +2.99 New England Patriots 3.63 (8)
5 +2.65 Tennessee Titans -4.01 (27)
6 +2.47 Houston Texans 0.98 (13)
7 +2.11 Atlanta Falcons -1.86 (23)
8 +1.92 Cincinnati Bengals 1.56 (12)
9 +1.76 New Orleans Saints -5.16 (29)
10 +1.55 New York Giants -0.79 (18)
11 +1.28 Chicago Bears 2.46 (10)
12 +0.92 Denver Broncos 0.15 (14)
13 +0.07 Cleveland Browns -7.91 (31)
14 -0.10 Carolina Panthers -4.90 (28)
15 -0.37 Seattle Seahawks 6.32 (2)
16 -0.75 Las Vegas Raiders -8.12 (32)
17 -0.91 Buffalo Bills 4.77 (6)
18 -0.98 Los Angeles Chargers -0.94 (19)
19 -1.03 Green Bay Packers -0.40 (17)
20 -1.18 Arizona Cardinals -1.34 (20)
Rank Trend Team Offense
21 -1.30 Miami Dolphins -3.90 (26)
22 -1.46 Washington Commanders -2.09 (24)
23 -1.81 Baltimore Ravens 1.85 (11)
24 -1.87 Pittsburgh Steelers 0.10 (15)
25 -1.95 Minnesota Vikings -3.17 (25)
26 -2.24 Indianapolis Colts 5.50 (3)
27 -2.33 Dallas Cowboys 4.65 (7)
28 -2.74 Philadelphia Eagles -1.85 (21)
29 -3.05 New York Jets -5.70 (30)
30 -3.08 Detroit Lions 5.22 (4)
31 -3.48 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.09 (16)
32 -5.27 Kansas City Chiefs -1.85 (22)And here’s the same data, except for defense instead of offense.
Defense Trend
Rank Trend Team Defense
1 +4.86 Minnesota Vikings 4.01 (5)
2 +4.01 Baltimore Ravens -0.37 (18)
3 +3.17 Chicago Bears -1.54 (23)
4 +2.99 Cincinnati Bengals -6.34 (31)
5 +2.76 Seattle Seahawks 6.65 (2)
6 +2.14 Jacksonville Jaguars 3.34 (8)
7 +2.13 Los Angeles Chargers 1.69 (11)
8 +2.00 New York Giants -2.80 (26)
9 +1.99 Pittsburgh Steelers 0.39 (15)
10 +1.93 New England Patriots 1.85 (10)
11 +1.86 Buffalo Bills -0.32 (17)
12 +1.56 Philadelphia Eagles 4.78 (3)
13 +1.51 Cleveland Browns 0.42 (14)
14 +1.48 New Orleans Saints 0.28 (16)
15 +0.88 Carolina Panthers 1.35 (13)
16 +0.66 Miami Dolphins -2.66 (25)
17 -0.19 Dallas Cowboys -8.57 (32)
18 -0.49 Denver Broncos 3.38 (7)
19 -0.56 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.45 (22)
20 -0.64 Atlanta Falcons -0.42 (19)
Rank Trend Team Defense
21 -0.69 Detroit Lions -1.03 (20)
22 -0.96 Washington Commanders -3.78 (29)
23 -0.99 Las Vegas Raiders -2.60 (24)
24 -1.15 Kansas City Chiefs 3.69 (6)
25 -1.68 Tennessee Titans -3.78 (28)
26 -1.69 San Francisco 49ers 1.95 (9)
27 -1.87 Green Bay Packers 1.62 (12)
28 -2.28 New York Jets -6.32 (30)
29 -3.06 Indianapolis Colts -1.09 (21)
30 -3.50 Los Angeles Rams 4.05 (4)
31 -3.82 Houston Texans 6.93 (1)
32 -4.58 Arizona Cardinals -3.37 (27)The interpretation of these trends is clearer for teams like the Bears and Patriots, where they’ve both scored more points and allowed fewer points over the course of the season. For those teams, changes in the pace of play wouldn’t really explain the trends, and it’s more likely to be the result of real improvements on offense and defense. Will that translate into playoff success and outperforming the predictions? The playoffs are a small sample size, but I’ll be watching the outcomes on Sunday anyway.
Divisional Round Predictions
Alright, let’s get to the game predictions. There are no ties in the postseason, so the predictions look slightly different than during the regular season. Again, I’m intrigued by Sunday’s games, especially the Rams-Bears game, as tests of how much it matters that some of the playoff teams improved considerably during the season.
Games on Saturday, January 17, 2026
#1: San Francisco 49ers (-8.95, 25.39%) at Seattle Seahawks (8.95, 74.61%)
Estimated score: 18.48 - 27.44, Total: 45.92
Quality: 86.31%, Team quality: 88.65%, Competitiveness: 81.83%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 30.56%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 14.08%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 24.06%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 18.35%
#2: Buffalo Bills (-0.35, 48.95%) at Denver Broncos (0.35, 51.05%)
Estimated score: 23.13 - 23.46, Total: 46.59
Quality: 83.14%, Team quality: 75.83%, Competitiveness: 99.97%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.20%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.61%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 25.55%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 17.12%
Games on Sunday, January 18, 2026
#1: Houston Texans (1.14, 53.37%) at New England Patriots (-1.14, 46.63%)
Estimated score: 20.12 - 18.98, Total: 39.10
Quality: 92.22%, Team quality: 88.70%, Competitiveness: 99.67%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.34%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.55%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 11.89%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 33.51%
#2: Los Angeles Rams (8.97, 74.65%) at Chicago Bears (-8.97, 25.35%)
Estimated score: 31.68 - 22.71, Total: 54.39
Quality: 78.70%, Team quality: 77.21%, Competitiveness: 81.77%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 30.59%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 14.07%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 45.53%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 6.76%I’ll post another article soon explaining how I calculate these trends and examining them in more detail. For now, enjoy the playoff games. And if you’re like me and enjoy motorsports, you might also be glad that there’s racing this weekend at Daytona International Speedway, and the Rolex 24 is next weekend. In the central United States where I am, this is the coldest time of year. The cold and snowy weather doesn’t make it feel like spring is coming, but at least there are a few glimmers that we’re not too far away.
Thanks for reading!
This article uses data from Pro Football Reference in calculating the ratings.