Initial Computer Ratings for the 2025-26 NBA Season
Which teams have the best predictive ratings, and who is predicted to win games during the next couple of weeks?
When the NBA regular season begins tonight, the games will have a bit of an old school feel to them. For the first time since 2002, John Tesh’s Roundball Rock will once again be played during an NBA broadcast. Sure, Fox Sports used a different arrangement of Roundball Rock for college basketball broadcasts, but it just didn’t feel the same. Starting tonight, Roundball Rock is back where it belongs, the NBA is back on NBC, and regular season NBA games are back for the 2025-26 season. I don’t normally include videos in my articles, but here’s a reminder of the greatness of the NBA on NBC broadcasts, all the way back to Michael Jordan’s first NBA championship with the Chicago Bulls.
A couple of weeks ago, I announced that I’d be posting NBA ratings and game predictions this season, and that’s exactly what this article is for. With games starting tonight, it’s time to unveil my first regular season ratings. For now, the updates to my rating software are just enough to make the rating calculations work properly and include NBA preseason games. There’s still work to be done, and I’ll probably do more work to incorporate additional data from the NBA’s stats API into the data sets that my software generates. But the current state of the software is good enough to have fully functional NBA preseason ratings working. As a reminder, it’s possible to access the code for my Tiger rating system under a free and open source license from my Github repository.
I don’t intend to send weekly articles with updated NBA ratings and predictions, and I haven’t been doing that for NHL games. Instead, I’ve created a landing page with NBA data that I’ll update approximately weekly throughout the season.
NBA Predictive Ratings
For now, 2025-26 preseason games are weighted at 100% each, and 2024-25 regular season and postseason games are given half that weight. This gives preseason games a greater opportunity to influence the ratings so that they better reflect the strength of the teams right now. NBA teams do sometimes play exhibition games against non-NBA teams, and those games have not been included in the ratings because it’s not especially likely that they would make the ratings more accurate. Non-NBA teams just don’t play enough games against NBA teams to assess the strength of those teams with a reasonable level of accuracy. Otherwise, the ratings work the same my ratings for other leagues do, and I expect that I’ll adopt a similar approach to weighting the impact of games as I use in the NHL.
What do the predictive ratings mean? Here’s a bit of boilerplate text that’s become familiar in some of my football articles. These are forward looking ratings, meaning that they’re intended to evaluate how good a team is and predict its future success, but they don’t evaluate the quality of a team’s achievements earlier in the season. These ratings are based purely on points, meaning that winning percentage doesn’t directly influence the ratings.
The offense and defense columns refer to each team’s point scoring tendencies instead of the efficiency ratings that some other rating systems use. The overall rating is approximately the sum of a team’s offense and defense ratings. To predict the score of a game for the home team, take the home team’s offense rating, add half of the home advantage, subtract the visiting team’s defense rating, and add the mean score. Predicting the score is similar for the visiting team. Take the visiting team’s offense rating, subtract half of the home advantage, subtract the home team’s defense rating, and add the mean score. Predicting the margin of victory for a game is done by taking the home team’s rating, adding the home advantage, and subtracting the away team’s rating. For neutral site games, the home advantage is set to zero.
Predictive Ratings
Home advantage: 1.81 points
Mean score: 113.42 points
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
1 11.22 -1.11 Oklahoma City Thunder 4.05 7.15
2 +1 8.78 +0.34 Boston Celtics 1.86 6.92
3 -1 8.47 -1.05 Cleveland Cavaliers 7.48 1.02
4 +1 4.81 +0.02 Los Angeles Clippers -2.08 6.90
5 +1 4.64 -0.03 Houston Rockets 0.84 3.80
6 -2 4.28 -0.73 Minnesota Timberwolves 0.26 4.02
7 +2 3.75 +0.05 Denver Nuggets 5.51 -1.77
8 +2 3.37 -0.24 Golden State Warriors -0.24 3.61
9 -1 3.16 -0.55 New York Knicks 0.13 3.01
10 +1 2.89 -0.55 Indiana Pacers 3.82 -0.95
11 +1 2.88 +0.42 Milwaukee Bucks 1.49 1.36
12 -5 2.56 -1.58 Memphis Grizzlies 7.06 -4.50
13 2.07 +0.39 Detroit Pistons 1.23 0.84
14 +3 0.38 +0.94 Dallas Mavericks 0.68 -0.32
15 +3 0.11 +0.76 Orlando Magic -7.27 7.36
16 -2 0.07 -1.31 Los Angeles Lakers -1.71 1.80
17 -2 -0.29 -0.76 Sacramento Kings 1.85 -2.14
18 +2 -1.13 +0.82 Chicago Bulls 4.34 -5.49
19 +4 -1.41 +1.32 San Antonio Spurs 1.17 -2.55
20 -4 -1.45 -1.10 Miami Heat -3.66 2.18
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
21 -2 -2.00 -0.10 Atlanta Hawks 4.52 -6.53
22 -2.25 +0.40 Phoenix Suns 0.14 -2.36
23 -2 -2.59 -0.02 Portland Trail Blazers -1.92 -0.68
24 -3.45 +0.70 Toronto Raptors -2.08 -1.34
25 +1 -6.61 +0.38 Brooklyn Nets -7.81 1.21
26 -1 -6.62 +0.02 Philadelphia 76ers -4.30 -2.32
27 +2 -7.52 +1.51 Charlotte Hornets -6.68 -0.83
28 -1 -8.19 +0.25 New Orleans Pelicans -2.70 -5.52
29 -1 -8.36 +0.14 Utah Jazz -0.62 -7.73
30 -11.62 +0.72 Washington Wizards -5.38 -6.23 Trends in the ratings are compared to my earlier ratings that do not include 2025-26 preseason games. The trends are useful because they show which teams may be stronger are weaker than last season based on their performance during the preseason.
Again, offense and defense ratings need to be taken in their proper context. For example, Orlando has the second lowest offense rating in the NBA, but their defense rating is highest in the league. These ratings are influenced in part by the Magic’s limited skill on offense and their stingy defense, but they also had the second slowest pace of play in the 2024-25 season. The same issue applies to the Celtics’ ratings, where they actually had the slowest page of play last season. In the case of the Celtics, they have a high shooting percentage and avoided turnovers, but their slow pace of play cuts into their offense rating and inflates their defense rating. This context is important, and my primary use for the offense and defense ratings is just to predict the scores of games. These are not efficiencies, just tools to forecast scores in upcoming games.
Strength of Schedule
Again, here’s a bit of boilerplate text that I’m borrowing from my football articles. The first column would be the expected losing percentage (1 minus winning percentage) for a hypothetical average NBA team in each team’s games played to date. It’s empty for now because no regular season games have been played yet. Larger numbers mean a tougher schedule. The second column is the same thing, just for future games instead of past games.
The third column is the average opponent rating, with an adjustment for the site of games, for previously played games. Again, this column is empty because no games have been played at this point in the season. The fourth column is the average opponent rating for the future games that each team will play.
These columns are the same schedule strength metrics from my NFL articles. For now, there’s no prior strength of schedule because this is calculated only over the current season.
Schedule Strength for an Average Team
Home advantage: 1.81 points
Mean score: 113.42 points
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
1 Oklahoma City Thunder --- .493 (24) --- -0.31 (25)
2 Boston Celtics --- .483 (30) --- -0.66 (30)
3 Cleveland Cavaliers --- .487 (29) --- -0.51 (29)
4 Los Angeles Clippers --- .498 (19) --- -0.10 (20)
5 Houston Rockets --- .493 (25) --- -0.28 (24)
6 Minnesota Timberwolves --- .501 (15) --- 0.03 (15)
7 Denver Nuggets --- .503 (10) --- 0.13 (10)
8 Golden State Warriors --- .503 (11) --- 0.12 (11)
9 New York Knicks --- .488 (27) --- -0.46 (27)
10 Indiana Pacers --- .498 (20) --- -0.09 (19)
11 Milwaukee Bucks --- .488 (28) --- -0.47 (28)
12 Memphis Grizzlies --- .502 (12) --- 0.06 (12)
13 Detroit Pistons --- .491 (26) --- -0.37 (26)
14 Dallas Mavericks --- .508 (6) --- 0.27 (6)
15 Orlando Magic --- .495 (22) --- -0.21 (22)
16 Los Angeles Lakers --- .504 (9) --- 0.16 (8)
17 Sacramento Kings --- .506 (7) --- 0.19 (7)
18 Chicago Bulls --- .501 (13) --- 0.04 (14)
19 San Antonio Spurs --- .511 (5) --- 0.40 (5)
20 Miami Heat --- .498 (21) --- -0.12 (21)
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
21 Atlanta Hawks --- .494 (23) --- -0.24 (23)
22 Phoenix Suns --- .511 (4) --- 0.41 (4)
23 Portland Trail Blazers --- .515 (3) --- 0.53 (3)
24 Toronto Raptors --- .498 (18) --- -0.08 (18)
25 Brooklyn Nets --- .500 (17) --- -0.04 (17)
26 Philadelphia 76ers --- .505 (8) --- 0.14 (9)
27 Charlotte Hornets --- .501 (14) --- 0.01 (16)
28 New Orleans Pelicans --- .517 (2) --- 0.62 (2)
29 Utah Jazz --- .521 (1) --- 0.77 (1)
30 Washington Wizards --- .501 (16) --- 0.05 (13) Game Predictions
I’ll again use some boilerplate text from other sports to describe what these predictions mean. Games are ranked based on the projected quality. This factors in the overall strength of the two teams and the potential for a competitive game. Game quality ratings are not directly comparable between different leagues and sports because those sports and leagues have different tendencies. This is just for predicting which games are most and least compelling to watch within a specific league.
Beside each team, there are two numbers in parentheses. One is the predicted margin of victory (positive) or defeat (negative), the other is the probability of winning. In the event that a margin is larger than what’s indicated by the predicted score, that’s because there’s nothing in the math that prevents a forecast of negative points with a sufficiently lopsided matchup. That’s most certainly not going to to happen with the NBA ratings. However, if some mathematical fluke were to occur and allow this, the score would be set to zero.
Games on Tuesday, October 21, 2025
#1: Houston Rockets (-8.38, 27.69%) at Oklahoma City Thunder (8.38, 72.31%)
Estimated score: 106.21 - 114.57, Total: 220.78
Quality: 86.37%, Team quality: 86.62%, Competitiveness: 85.86%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 28.33%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 23.20%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 13.16%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 29.35%
#2: Golden State Warriors (1.49, 54.21%) at Los Angeles Lakers (-1.49, 45.79%)
Estimated score: 110.47 - 109.00, Total: 219.47
Quality: 72.86%, Team quality: 62.35%, Competitiveness: 99.52%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 21.09%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.51%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 11.80%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 31.67%
Games on Wednesday, October 22, 2025
#1: Cleveland Cavaliers (3.50, 59.79%) at New York Knicks (-3.50, 40.21%)
Estimated score: 116.99 - 113.43, Total: 230.42
Quality: 88.72%, Team quality: 84.69%, Competitiveness: 97.37%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 22.20%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 26.82%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 26.31%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 15.19%
#2: Detroit Pistons (1.40, 53.95%) at Chicago Bulls (-1.40, 46.05%)
Estimated score: 119.23 - 117.83, Total: 237.06
Quality: 65.61%, Team quality: 53.26%, Competitiveness: 99.58%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 21.06%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.52%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 38.24%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 8.65%
#3: Minnesota Timberwolves (5.06, 63.99%) at Portland Trail Blazers (-5.06, 36.01%)
Estimated score: 113.45 - 108.38, Total: 221.84
Quality: 63.97%, Team quality: 52.61%, Competitiveness: 94.58%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 23.64%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 25.93%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 14.32%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 27.55%
#4: San Antonio Spurs (-3.59, 39.96%) at Dallas Mavericks (3.59, 60.04%)
Estimated score: 114.01 - 117.56, Total: 231.56
Quality: 57.72%, Team quality: 44.47%, Competitiveness: 97.23%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 22.27%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 26.78%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 28.23%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 13.88%
#5: Miami Heat (-3.37, 40.56%) at Orlando Magic (3.37, 59.44%)
Estimated score: 101.50 - 104.87, Total: 206.37
Quality: 56.98%, Team quality: 43.54%, Competitiveness: 97.56%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 22.10%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 26.88%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 3.25%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 57.25%
#6: Sacramento Kings (0.15, 50.42%) at Phoenix Suns (-0.15, 49.58%)
Estimated score: 116.73 - 116.61, Total: 233.34
Quality: 54.81%, Team quality: 40.58%, Competitiveness: 100.00%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 20.85%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.66%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 31.32%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 11.99%
#7: Toronto Raptors (-3.26, 40.88%) at Atlanta Hawks (3.26, 59.12%)
Estimated score: 116.96 - 120.19, Total: 237.15
Quality: 43.86%, Team quality: 29.39%, Competitiveness: 97.72%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 22.01%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 26.93%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 38.42%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 8.57%
#8: Los Angeles Clippers (11.36, 78.83%) at Utah Jazz (-11.36, 21.17%)
Estimated score: 118.16 - 106.81, Total: 224.97
Quality: 36.05%, Team quality: 24.90%, Competitiveness: 75.59%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 34.17%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 20.05%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 18.19%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 22.54%
#9: Philadelphia 76ers (-17.20, 11.44%) at Boston Celtics (17.20, 88.56%)
Estimated score: 101.29 - 118.50, Total: 219.79
Quality: 34.27%, Team quality: 27.61%, Competitiveness: 52.83%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 48.63%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 13.34%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 12.12%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 31.10%
#10: New Orleans Pelicans (-12.56, 18.84%) at Memphis Grizzlies (12.56, 81.16%)
Estimated score: 114.32 - 126.90, Total: 241.23
Quality: 28.51%, Team quality: 18.05%, Competitiveness: 71.08%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 36.87%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 18.68%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 46.45%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 5.79%
#11: Brooklyn Nets (-0.90, 47.47%) at Charlotte Hornets (0.90, 52.53%)
Estimated score: 105.54 - 106.43, Total: 211.97
Quality: 20.34%, Team quality: 9.18%, Competitiveness: 99.83%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 20.94%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.60%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 5.91%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 46.05%
#12: Washington Wizards (-16.31, 12.66%) at Milwaukee Bucks (16.31, 87.34%)
Estimated score: 105.78 - 122.04, Total: 227.82
Quality: 15.88%, Team quality: 8.43%, Competitiveness: 56.31%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 46.26%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 14.34%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 22.22%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 18.47%
Games on Thursday, October 23, 2025
#1: Oklahoma City Thunder (6.52, 67.76%) at Indiana Pacers (-6.52, 32.24%)
Estimated score: 117.52 - 110.99, Total: 228.51
Quality: 87.79%, Team quality: 86.14%, Competitiveness: 91.18%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 25.44%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 24.86%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 23.28%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 17.56%
#2: Denver Nuggets (-1.42, 45.99%) at Golden State Warriors (1.42, 54.01%)
Estimated score: 114.42 - 115.85, Total: 230.27
Quality: 82.08%, Team quality: 74.53%, Competitiveness: 99.56%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 21.07%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.52%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 26.07%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 15.37%
Games on Friday, October 24, 2025
#1: Boston Celtics (3.81, 60.63%) at New York Knicks (-3.81, 39.37%)
Estimated score: 111.37 - 107.53, Total: 218.90
Quality: 88.84%, Team quality: 85.06%, Competitiveness: 96.89%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 22.44%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 26.67%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 11.24%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 32.71%
#2: Detroit Pistons (-4.38, 37.83%) at Houston Rockets (4.38, 62.17%)
Estimated score: 109.94 - 114.33, Total: 224.27
Quality: 78.27%, Team quality: 70.70%, Competitiveness: 95.92%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 22.95%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 26.36%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 17.27%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 23.62%
#3: Minnesota Timberwolves (2.40, 56.74%) at Los Angeles Lakers (-2.40, 43.26%)
Estimated score: 110.97 - 108.59, Total: 219.56
Quality: 74.70%, Team quality: 64.97%, Competitiveness: 98.76%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 21.48%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.26%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 11.89%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 31.51%
#4: Golden State Warriors (4.16, 61.57%) at Portland Trail Blazers (-4.16, 38.43%)
Estimated score: 112.95 - 108.79, Total: 221.75
Quality: 62.61%, Team quality: 50.48%, Competitiveness: 96.31%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 22.74%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 26.48%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 14.22%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 27.71%
#5: Miami Heat (-5.82, 34.02%) at Memphis Grizzlies (5.82, 65.98%)
Estimated score: 113.36 - 119.21, Total: 232.57
Quality: 61.01%, Team quality: 49.44%, Competitiveness: 92.90%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 24.53%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 25.40%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 29.96%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 12.79%
#6: Phoenix Suns (-8.86, 26.57%) at Los Angeles Clippers (8.86, 73.43%)
Estimated score: 105.76 - 114.60, Total: 220.36
Quality: 58.53%, Team quality: 48.76%, Competitiveness: 84.32%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 29.18%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 22.72%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 12.71%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 30.09%
#7: Milwaukee Bucks (4.53, 62.58%) at Toronto Raptors (-4.53, 37.42%)
Estimated score: 115.35 - 110.88, Total: 226.23
Quality: 57.99%, Team quality: 45.15%, Competitiveness: 95.63%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 23.10%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 26.27%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 19.91%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 20.68%
#8: Atlanta Hawks (-3.93, 39.05%) at Orlando Magic (3.93, 60.95%)
Estimated score: 109.68 - 113.58, Total: 223.27
Quality: 54.61%, Team quality: 41.04%, Competitiveness: 96.70%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 22.54%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 26.61%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 16.01%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 25.20%
#9: Cleveland Cavaliers (13.28, 82.48%) at Brooklyn Nets (-13.28, 17.52%)
Estimated score: 118.79 - 105.49, Total: 224.28
Quality: 44.69%, Team quality: 36.16%, Competitiveness: 68.28%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 38.57%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 17.85%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 17.29%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 23.60%
#10: San Antonio Spurs (4.97, 63.76%) at New Orleans Pelicans (-4.97, 36.24%)
Estimated score: 119.20 - 114.18, Total: 233.39
Quality: 29.99%, Team quality: 16.87%, Competitiveness: 94.77%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 23.55%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 25.99%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 31.41%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 11.94%
#11: Utah Jazz (-9.88, 24.30%) at Sacramento Kings (9.88, 75.70%)
Estimated score: 114.04 - 123.91, Total: 237.95
Quality: 26.24%, Team quality: 14.94%, Competitiveness: 80.93%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 31.09%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 21.68%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 39.96%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 7.96%
#12: Washington Wizards (-13.81, 16.60%) at Dallas Mavericks (13.81, 83.40%)
Estimated score: 107.45 - 121.23, Total: 228.68
Quality: 15.43%, Team quality: 7.45%, Competitiveness: 66.21%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 39.86%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 17.23%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 23.54%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 17.34%
Games on Saturday, October 25, 2025
#1: Indiana Pacers (-1.48, 45.83%) at Memphis Grizzlies (1.48, 54.17%)
Estimated score: 120.84 - 122.34, Total: 243.18
Quality: 78.15%, Team quality: 69.25%, Competitiveness: 99.53%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 21.09%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.51%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 50.35%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 4.74%
#2: Oklahoma City Thunder (11.41, 78.94%) at Atlanta Hawks (-11.41, 21.06%)
Estimated score: 123.10 - 111.70, Total: 234.80
Quality: 67.46%, Team quality: 63.81%, Competitiveness: 75.40%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 34.29%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 19.99%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 33.98%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 10.58%
#3: Chicago Bulls (-3.05, 41.44%) at Orlando Magic (3.05, 58.56%)
Estimated score: 109.50 - 112.55, Total: 222.04
Quality: 58.31%, Team quality: 44.97%, Competitiveness: 97.99%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 21.87%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.02%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 14.56%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 27.21%
#4: Phoenix Suns (-7.81, 29.05%) at Denver Nuggets (7.81, 70.95%)
Estimated score: 114.43 - 122.20, Total: 236.62
Quality: 58.12%, Team quality: 47.35%, Competitiveness: 87.60%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 27.38%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 23.74%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 37.40%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 9.00%
#5: Charlotte Hornets (-2.72, 42.37%) at Philadelphia 76ers (2.72, 57.63%)
Estimated score: 108.15 - 110.85, Total: 219.00
Quality: 19.92%, Team quality: 8.96%, Competitiveness: 98.41%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 21.66%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.15%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 11.34%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 32.51%
Games on Sunday, October 26, 2025
#1: Boston Celtics (4.90, 63.56%) at Detroit Pistons (-4.90, 36.44%)
Estimated score: 113.54 - 108.63, Total: 222.16
Quality: 85.68%, Team quality: 81.41%, Competitiveness: 94.92%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 23.47%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 26.04%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 14.70%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 27.01%
#2: Milwaukee Bucks (-7.39, 30.06%) at Cleveland Cavaliers (7.39, 69.94%)
Estimated score: 112.98 - 120.45, Total: 233.43
Quality: 81.96%, Team quality: 78.74%, Competitiveness: 88.81%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 26.72%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 24.12%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 31.48%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 11.90%
#3: Indiana Pacers (-3.19, 41.06%) at Minnesota Timberwolves (3.19, 58.94%)
Estimated score: 112.31 - 115.53, Total: 227.84
Quality: 80.79%, Team quality: 73.42%, Competitiveness: 97.81%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 21.97%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 26.96%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 22.26%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 18.44%
#4: New York Knicks (2.81, 57.88%) at Miami Heat (-2.81, 42.12%)
Estimated score: 110.46 - 107.66, Total: 218.12
Quality: 66.93%, Team quality: 55.23%, Competitiveness: 98.30%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 21.72%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.12%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 10.51%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 34.13%
#5: Los Angeles Lakers (-1.44, 45.93%) at Sacramento Kings (1.44, 54.07%)
Estimated score: 112.95 - 114.37, Total: 227.32
Quality: 61.97%, Team quality: 48.90%, Competitiveness: 99.55%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 21.08%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.52%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 21.49%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 19.15%
#6: Portland Trail Blazers (-9.21, 25.78%) at Los Angeles Clippers (9.21, 74.22%)
Estimated score: 103.70 - 112.92, Total: 216.62
Quality: 56.73%, Team quality: 46.85%, Competitiveness: 83.19%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 29.81%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 22.37%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 9.20%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 36.94%
#7: Toronto Raptors (-5.64, 34.49%) at Dallas Mavericks (5.64, 65.51%)
Estimated score: 110.75 - 116.34, Total: 227.09
Quality: 48.59%, Team quality: 35.07%, Competitiveness: 93.32%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 24.31%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 25.54%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 21.15%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 19.46%
#8: Brooklyn Nets (-7.01, 30.99%) at San Antonio Spurs (7.01, 69.01%)
Estimated score: 107.26 - 114.29, Total: 221.55
Quality: 32.01%, Team quality: 19.11%, Competitiveness: 89.86%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 26.15%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 24.45%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 14.00%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 28.04%
#9: Charlotte Hornets (2.29, 56.44%) at Washington Wizards (-2.29, 43.56%)
Estimated score: 112.07 - 109.77, Total: 221.84
Quality: 10.73%, Team quality: 3.54%, Competitiveness: 98.87%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 21.43%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.30%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 14.32%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 27.55%
Games on Monday, October 27, 2025
#1: Cleveland Cavaliers (4.59, 62.74%) at Detroit Pistons (-4.59, 37.26%)
Estimated score: 119.16 - 114.52, Total: 233.69
Quality: 85.62%, Team quality: 81.05%, Competitiveness: 95.53%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 23.15%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 26.23%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 31.95%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 11.64%
#2: Denver Nuggets (-2.33, 43.45%) at Minnesota Timberwolves (2.33, 56.55%)
Estimated score: 114.00 - 116.35, Total: 230.36
Quality: 83.43%, Team quality: 76.66%, Competitiveness: 98.83%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 21.45%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.28%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 26.21%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 15.26%
#3: Oklahoma City Thunder (9.03, 73.81%) at Dallas Mavericks (-9.03, 26.19%)
Estimated score: 116.89 - 107.85, Total: 224.74
Quality: 78.60%, Team quality: 76.13%, Competitiveness: 83.78%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 29.49%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 22.55%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 17.88%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 22.90%
#4: Memphis Grizzlies (-2.61, 42.65%) at Golden State Warriors (2.61, 57.35%)
Estimated score: 115.97 - 118.59, Total: 234.55
Quality: 78.51%, Team quality: 70.08%, Competitiveness: 98.52%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 21.60%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.19%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 33.53%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 10.81%
#5: Portland Trail Blazers (-4.47, 37.58%) at Los Angeles Lakers (4.47, 62.42%)
Estimated score: 108.80 - 113.29, Total: 222.09
Quality: 51.96%, Team quality: 38.27%, Competitiveness: 95.74%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 23.04%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 26.30%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 14.61%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 27.13%
#6: Atlanta Hawks (-2.68, 42.47%) at Chicago Bulls (2.68, 57.53%)
Estimated score: 122.53 - 125.19, Total: 247.73
Quality: 51.81%, Team quality: 37.59%, Competitiveness: 98.45%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 21.64%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.16%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 59.41%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 2.87%
#7: Toronto Raptors (-3.85, 39.24%) at San Antonio Spurs (3.85, 60.76%)
Estimated score: 112.99 - 116.84, Total: 229.83
Quality: 45.22%, Team quality: 30.91%, Competitiveness: 96.82%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 22.48%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 26.65%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 25.35%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 15.90%
#8: Orlando Magic (4.92, 63.62%) at Philadelphia 76ers (-4.92, 36.38%)
Estimated score: 107.56 - 102.66, Total: 210.23
Quality: 38.99%, Team quality: 25.00%, Competitiveness: 94.87%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 23.49%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 26.03%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 4.94%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 49.54%
#9: Boston Celtics (15.16, 85.62%) at New Orleans Pelicans (-15.16, 14.38%)
Estimated score: 119.89 - 104.70, Total: 224.60
Quality: 36.48%, Team quality: 28.24%, Competitiveness: 60.87%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 43.26%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 15.66%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 17.70%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 23.11%
#10: Brooklyn Nets (-13.07, 17.91%) at Houston Rockets (13.07, 82.09%)
Estimated score: 100.90 - 113.96, Total: 214.86
Quality: 35.95%, Team quality: 25.93%, Competitiveness: 69.11%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 38.06%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 18.09%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 7.82%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 40.32%
#11: Phoenix Suns (4.31, 61.98%) at Utah Jazz (-4.31, 38.02%)
Estimated score: 120.38 - 116.07, Total: 236.45
Quality: 27.79%, Team quality: 14.95%, Competitiveness: 96.05%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 22.88%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 26.40%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 37.08%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 9.14%
Games on Tuesday, October 28, 2025
#1: Los Angeles Clippers (-0.37, 48.96%) at Golden State Warriors (0.37, 51.04%)
Estimated score: 106.82 - 107.18, Total: 214.00
Quality: 84.63%, Team quality: 77.87%, Competitiveness: 99.97%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 20.86%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.65%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 7.21%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 42.01%
#2: New York Knicks (-1.53, 45.69%) at Milwaukee Bucks (1.53, 54.31%)
Estimated score: 111.29 - 112.80, Total: 224.09
Quality: 79.56%, Team quality: 71.14%, Competitiveness: 99.49%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 21.11%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.50%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 17.05%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 23.89%
#3: Sacramento Kings (-13.32, 17.46%) at Oklahoma City Thunder (13.32, 82.54%)
Estimated score: 107.22 - 120.52, Total: 227.74
Quality: 65.19%, Team quality: 63.76%, Competitiveness: 68.13%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 38.66%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 17.80%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 22.11%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 18.58%
#4: Charlotte Hornets (-7.88, 28.88%) at Miami Heat (7.88, 71.12%)
Estimated score: 103.65 - 111.49, Total: 215.15
Quality: 28.33%, Team quality: 16.13%, Competitiveness: 87.38%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 27.50%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 23.67%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 8.03%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 39.77%
#5: Philadelphia 76ers (3.20, 58.96%) at Washington Wizards (-3.20, 41.04%)
Estimated score: 114.45 - 111.26, Total: 225.70
Quality: 11.94%, Team quality: 4.17%, Competitiveness: 97.80%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 21.97%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 26.96%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 19.18%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 21.45%
Games on Wednesday, October 29, 2025
#1: Cleveland Cavaliers (-2.12, 44.04%) at Boston Celtics (2.12, 55.96%)
Estimated score: 113.07 - 115.16, Total: 228.23
Quality: 95.90%, Team quality: 94.38%, Competitiveness: 99.03%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 21.34%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.35%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 22.85%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 17.92%
#2: Indiana Pacers (0.71, 52.00%) at Dallas Mavericks (-0.71, 48.00%)
Estimated score: 116.65 - 115.95, Total: 232.60
Quality: 72.68%, Team quality: 62.00%, Competitiveness: 99.89%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 20.90%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.63%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 30.02%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 12.75%
#3: Los Angeles Lakers (-6.01, 33.53%) at Minnesota Timberwolves (6.01, 66.47%)
Estimated score: 106.78 - 112.78, Total: 219.56
Quality: 69.66%, Team quality: 60.47%, Competitiveness: 92.45%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 24.77%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 25.26%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 11.89%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 31.51%
#4: Orlando Magic (-3.77, 39.48%) at Detroit Pistons (3.77, 60.52%)
Estimated score: 104.41 - 108.19, Total: 212.60
Quality: 67.29%, Team quality: 56.05%, Competitiveness: 96.96%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 22.41%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 26.69%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 6.29%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 44.79%
#5: Memphis Grizzlies (3.00, 58.43%) at Phoenix Suns (-3.00, 41.57%)
Estimated score: 121.94 - 118.97, Total: 240.91
Quality: 62.52%, Team quality: 49.93%, Competitiveness: 98.06%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 21.84%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.04%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 45.80%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 5.98%
#6: Houston Rockets (6.29, 67.19%) at Toronto Raptors (-6.29, 32.81%)
Estimated score: 114.70 - 108.43, Total: 223.14
Quality: 60.37%, Team quality: 48.97%, Competitiveness: 91.76%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 25.14%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 25.04%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 15.86%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 25.41%
#7: Sacramento Kings (-0.97, 47.27%) at Chicago Bulls (0.97, 52.73%)
Estimated score: 119.86 - 120.81, Total: 240.67
Quality: 58.31%, Team quality: 44.57%, Competitiveness: 99.80%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 20.95%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.59%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 45.33%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 6.12%
#8: Atlanta Hawks (2.80, 57.87%) at Brooklyn Nets (-2.80, 42.13%)
Estimated score: 115.83 - 113.04, Total: 228.88
Quality: 34.41%, Team quality: 20.36%, Competitiveness: 98.31%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 21.71%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.12%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 23.84%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 17.09%
#9: New Orleans Pelicans (-13.75, 16.70%) at Denver Nuggets (13.75, 83.30%)
Estimated score: 111.59 - 125.35, Total: 236.94
Quality: 28.68%, Team quality: 18.85%, Competitiveness: 66.44%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 39.71%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 17.30%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 38.02%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 8.74%
#10: Portland Trail Blazers (3.96, 61.04%) at Utah Jazz (-3.96, 38.96%)
Estimated score: 118.33 - 114.38, Total: 232.71
Quality: 27.11%, Team quality: 14.36%, Competitiveness: 96.65%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 22.57%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 26.59%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 30.22%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 12.63%
Games on Thursday, October 30, 2025
#1: Golden State Warriors (-1.32, 46.27%) at Milwaukee Bucks (1.32, 53.73%)
Estimated score: 110.92 - 112.20, Total: 223.11
Quality: 80.15%, Team quality: 71.89%, Competitiveness: 99.62%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 21.04%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.54%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 15.83%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 25.45%
#2: Miami Heat (-1.85, 44.78%) at San Antonio Spurs (1.85, 55.22%)
Estimated score: 111.41 - 113.31, Total: 224.73
Quality: 53.26%, Team quality: 39.02%, Competitiveness: 99.26%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 21.23%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.42%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 17.87%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 22.92%
#3: Orlando Magic (5.83, 66.01%) at Charlotte Hornets (-5.83, 33.99%)
Estimated score: 106.08 - 100.28, Total: 206.36
Quality: 35.24%, Team quality: 21.71%, Competitiveness: 92.88%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 24.54%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 25.40%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 3.25%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 57.27%
#4: Washington Wizards (-24.64, 4.44%) at Oklahoma City Thunder (24.64, 95.56%)
Estimated score: 99.98 - 124.61, Total: 224.59
Quality: 13.62%, Team quality: 9.60%, Competitiveness: 27.39%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 68.32%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 6.41%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 17.69%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 23.12%
Games on Friday, October 31, 2025
#1: New York Knicks (2.49, 56.99%) at Chicago Bulls (-2.49, 43.01%)
Estimated score: 118.14 - 115.66, Total: 233.79
Quality: 68.16%, Team quality: 56.65%, Competitiveness: 98.66%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 21.53%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.23%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 32.14%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 11.54%
#2: Los Angeles Lakers (-4.30, 38.05%) at Memphis Grizzlies (4.30, 61.95%)
Estimated score: 115.31 - 119.58, Total: 234.89
Quality: 67.86%, Team quality: 57.04%, Competitiveness: 96.06%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 22.87%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 26.40%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 34.15%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 10.50%
#3: Denver Nuggets (4.54, 62.61%) at Portland Trail Blazers (-4.54, 37.39%)
Estimated score: 118.71 - 114.18, Total: 232.88
Quality: 63.23%, Team quality: 51.42%, Competitiveness: 95.62%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 23.10%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 26.26%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 30.52%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 12.46%
#4: Atlanta Hawks (-6.70, 31.77%) at Indiana Pacers (6.70, 68.23%)
Estimated score: 117.99 - 124.67, Total: 242.66
Quality: 58.69%, Team quality: 47.21%, Competitiveness: 90.70%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 25.70%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 24.71%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 49.32%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 5.00%
#5: Toronto Raptors (-13.73, 16.73%) at Cleveland Cavaliers (13.73, 83.27%)
Estimated score: 109.41 - 123.15, Total: 232.56
Quality: 50.92%, Team quality: 44.55%, Competitiveness: 66.50%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 39.67%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 17.32%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 29.94%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 12.80%
#6: Boston Celtics (13.59, 83.02%) at Philadelphia 76ers (-13.59, 16.98%)
Estimated score: 116.69 - 103.10, Total: 219.79
Quality: 44.55%, Team quality: 36.31%, Competitiveness: 67.06%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 39.32%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 17.49%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 12.12%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 31.10%
#7: New Orleans Pelicans (-14.80, 14.94%) at Los Angeles Clippers (14.80, 85.06%)
Estimated score: 102.92 - 117.76, Total: 220.68
Quality: 28.63%, Team quality: 19.41%, Competitiveness: 62.28%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 42.35%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 16.08%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 13.05%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 29.53%
#8: Utah Jazz (-7.92, 28.79%) at Phoenix Suns (7.92, 71.21%)
Estimated score: 114.26 - 122.19, Total: 236.45
Quality: 24.27%, Team quality: 12.80%, Competitiveness: 87.27%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 27.56%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 23.64%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 37.08%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 9.14%
Games on Saturday, November 1, 2025
#1: Houston Rockets (-5.94, 33.71%) at Boston Celtics (5.94, 66.29%)
Estimated score: 106.44 - 112.38, Total: 218.81
Quality: 87.88%, Team quality: 85.61%, Competitiveness: 92.61%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 24.68%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 25.31%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 11.16%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 32.85%
#2: Golden State Warriors (-1.33, 46.25%) at Indiana Pacers (1.33, 53.75%)
Estimated score: 113.22 - 114.53, Total: 227.75
Quality: 80.17%, Team quality: 71.91%, Competitiveness: 99.62%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 21.04%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.54%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 22.13%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 18.56%
#3: Dallas Mavericks (-3.50, 40.20%) at Detroit Pistons (3.50, 59.80%)
Estimated score: 112.36 - 115.87, Total: 228.22
Quality: 68.37%, Team quality: 57.29%, Competitiveness: 97.37%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 22.20%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 26.82%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 22.84%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 17.94%
#4: Sacramento Kings (-4.98, 36.21%) at Milwaukee Bucks (4.98, 63.79%)
Estimated score: 113.01 - 117.95, Total: 230.97
Quality: 66.70%, Team quality: 55.97%, Competitiveness: 94.74%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 23.56%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 25.99%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 27.22%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 14.55%
#5: Minnesota Timberwolves (9.99, 75.96%) at Charlotte Hornets (-9.99, 24.04%)
Estimated score: 113.61 - 103.62, Total: 217.22
Quality: 39.87%, Team quality: 28.06%, Competitiveness: 80.52%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 31.32%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 21.55%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 9.71%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 35.80%
#6: Orlando Magic (9.93, 75.82%) at Washington Wizards (-9.93, 24.18%)
Estimated score: 111.48 - 101.58, Total: 213.06
Quality: 19.88%, Team quality: 9.87%, Competitiveness: 80.75%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 31.19%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 21.62%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 6.58%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 43.87%
Games on Sunday, November 2, 2025
#1: Chicago Bulls (-6.10, 33.30%) at New York Knicks (6.10, 66.70%)
Estimated score: 113.85 - 119.94, Total: 233.79
Quality: 63.15%, Team quality: 52.26%, Competitiveness: 92.23%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 24.89%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 25.19%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 32.14%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 11.54%
#2: Atlanta Hawks (-12.28, 19.36%) at Cleveland Cavaliers (12.28, 80.64%)
Estimated score: 116.02 - 128.33, Total: 244.35
Quality: 58.74%, Team quality: 53.01%, Competitiveness: 72.13%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 36.23%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 19.00%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 52.71%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 4.18%
#3: Memphis Grizzlies (4.21, 61.72%) at Toronto Raptors (-4.21, 38.28%)
Estimated score: 120.92 - 116.74, Total: 237.67
Quality: 57.41%, Team quality: 44.35%, Competitiveness: 96.22%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 22.79%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 26.45%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 39.41%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 8.17%
#4: Miami Heat (-3.33, 40.68%) at Los Angeles Lakers (3.33, 59.32%)
Estimated score: 107.05 - 110.43, Total: 217.48
Quality: 56.89%, Team quality: 43.43%, Competitiveness: 97.62%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 22.07%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 26.90%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 9.94%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 35.31%
#5: San Antonio Spurs (-0.97, 47.27%) at Phoenix Suns (0.97, 52.73%)
Estimated score: 116.05 - 117.02, Total: 233.07
Quality: 51.01%, Team quality: 36.47%, Competitiveness: 99.80%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 20.95%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.59%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 30.84%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 12.27%
#6: New Orleans Pelicans (-21.21, 7.02%) at Oklahoma City Thunder (21.21, 92.98%)
Estimated score: 102.67 - 123.89, Total: 226.56
Quality: 25.47%, Team quality: 20.83%, Competitiveness: 38.10%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 59.44%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 9.25%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 20.39%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 20.21%
#7: Philadelphia 76ers (-1.81, 44.90%) at Brooklyn Nets (1.81, 55.10%)
Estimated score: 107.01 - 108.83, Total: 215.84
Quality: 22.31%, Team quality: 10.58%, Competitiveness: 99.29%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 21.21%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.43%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 8.57%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 38.44%
#8: Utah Jazz (-2.64, 42.57%) at Charlotte Hornets (2.64, 57.43%)
Estimated score: 112.73 - 115.37, Total: 228.10
Quality: 16.27%, Team quality: 6.61%, Competitiveness: 98.49%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 21.62%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.18%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 22.65%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 18.10%
Games on Monday, November 3, 2025
#1: Milwaukee Bucks (-1.81, 44.89%) at Indiana Pacers (1.81, 55.11%)
Estimated score: 114.95 - 116.78, Total: 231.74
Quality: 78.74%, Team quality: 70.13%, Competitiveness: 99.29%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 21.21%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.43%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 28.53%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 13.68%
#2: Detroit Pistons (-2.30, 43.54%) at Memphis Grizzlies (2.30, 56.46%)
Estimated score: 118.25 - 120.55, Total: 238.80
Quality: 75.54%, Team quality: 66.03%, Competitiveness: 98.86%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 21.43%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.30%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 41.62%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 7.35%
#3: Dallas Mavericks (-6.07, 33.37%) at Houston Rockets (6.07, 66.63%)
Estimated score: 109.39 - 115.49, Total: 224.87
Quality: 71.28%, Team quality: 62.64%, Competitiveness: 92.30%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 24.85%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 25.21%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 18.06%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 22.69%
#4: Sacramento Kings (-5.85, 33.94%) at Denver Nuggets (5.85, 66.06%)
Estimated score: 116.14 - 121.98, Total: 238.12
Quality: 67.60%, Team quality: 57.69%, Competitiveness: 92.82%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 24.57%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 25.38%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 40.29%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 7.84%
#5: Miami Heat (-8.07, 28.44%) at Los Angeles Clippers (8.07, 71.56%)
Estimated score: 101.96 - 110.06, Total: 212.02
Quality: 62.60%, Team quality: 53.16%, Competitiveness: 86.82%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 27.80%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 23.50%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 5.93%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 45.95%
#6: Los Angeles Lakers (0.86, 52.43%) at Portland Trail Blazers (-0.86, 47.57%)
Estimated score: 111.48 - 110.60, Total: 222.09
Quality: 54.77%, Team quality: 40.56%, Competitiveness: 99.84%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 20.93%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.61%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 14.61%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 27.13%
#7: Minnesota Timberwolves (9.08, 73.93%) at Brooklyn Nets (-9.08, 26.07%)
Estimated score: 111.57 - 102.49, Total: 214.06
Quality: 44.36%, Team quality: 32.32%, Competitiveness: 83.61%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 29.58%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 22.50%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 7.25%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 41.90%
#8: Utah Jazz (-18.95, 9.31%) at Boston Celtics (18.95, 90.69%)
Estimated score: 104.97 - 123.91, Total: 228.89
Quality: 26.33%, Team quality: 19.88%, Competitiveness: 46.19%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 53.34%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 11.47%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 23.86%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 17.07%
#9: Washington Wizards (-16.59, 12.27%) at New York Knicks (16.59, 87.73%)
Estimated score: 104.13 - 120.68, Total: 224.81
Quality: 15.88%, Team quality: 8.52%, Competitiveness: 55.22%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 47.00%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 14.03%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 17.98%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 22.79%
Games on Tuesday, November 4, 2025
#1: Oklahoma City Thunder (4.60, 62.77%) at Los Angeles Clippers (-4.60, 37.23%)
Estimated score: 109.67 - 105.09, Total: 214.76
Quality: 92.76%, Team quality: 91.42%, Competitiveness: 95.50%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 23.16%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 26.23%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 7.75%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 40.52%
#2: Milwaukee Bucks (4.53, 62.58%) at Toronto Raptors (-4.53, 37.42%)
Estimated score: 115.35 - 110.88, Total: 226.23
Quality: 57.99%, Team quality: 45.15%, Competitiveness: 95.63%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 23.10%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 26.27%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 19.91%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 20.68%
#3: Phoenix Suns (-7.43, 29.98%) at Golden State Warriors (7.43, 70.02%)
Estimated score: 109.04 - 116.44, Total: 225.48
Quality: 57.88%, Team quality: 46.75%, Competitiveness: 88.71%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 26.77%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 24.09%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 18.88%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 21.77%
#4: Orlando Magic (0.31, 50.88%) at Atlanta Hawks (-0.31, 49.12%)
Estimated score: 111.78 - 111.49, Total: 223.27
Quality: 56.92%, Team quality: 42.95%, Competitiveness: 99.98%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 20.86%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.65%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 16.01%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 25.20%
#5: Philadelphia 76ers (-7.29, 30.31%) at Chicago Bulls (7.29, 69.69%)
Estimated score: 113.71 - 120.98, Total: 234.69
Quality: 32.39%, Team quality: 19.53%, Competitiveness: 89.09%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 26.57%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 24.21%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 33.77%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 10.69%
#6: Charlotte Hornets (-1.15, 46.77%) at New Orleans Pelicans (1.15, 53.23%)
Estimated score: 111.35 - 112.46, Total: 223.81
Quality: 16.92%, Team quality: 6.97%, Competitiveness: 99.71%
Blowout probability (margin >= 18.0 pts): 20.99%
Close game probability (margin <= 5.0 pts): 27.57%
High scoring probability (total >= 243.0 pts): 16.69%
Low scoring probability (total <= 210.0 pts): 24.34%I’ll post a brief article about college football later today prior to the two games that are scheduled for this evening, with the goal of having a bit more analysis later in the week. As I said, I don’t plan to post weekly NBA articles with ratings, but I am planning to have college basketball ratings in time for the start of the season. I will probably do periodic updates on NCAA tournament chances, especially once teams have played quite a few games in the upcoming season and conference games begin.
Thanks for reading!
The ratings in this article are partially based on data from Basketball Reference.