Week 9 NFL Computer Ratings and Game Predictions
The NFC West now surprisingly looks like the strongest division in the NFL, and can the Baltimore Ravens rebound from a slow 1-5 start?
It’s not much of a surprise to find the Detroit Lions near the top of the ratings. A couple of weeks ago, the Indianapolis Colts surged upward along with the Houston Texans. In the preseason, the NFC West was predicted to have four teams that were all slightly above average, but with no clear favorite. While I compared the NFC North to the SEC because of its strength from top to bottom, I described the NFC West as being like the Big 12. It promised to be an intriguing division without any bad teams, but also without any clear favorites. We’re now almost at the halfway point in the season, and the NFC West now arguably appears to be stronger than the NFC North. The Seattle Seahawks rose in the ratings early in the season, but now the Los Angeles Rams have risen to #2 in my predictive ratings. Both the Seahawks and Rams have similar and impressive point differentials, but the Rams have done it against a tougher schedule, and therefore are now rated above the Seahawks.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the new predictive ratings for this week. Preseason games are weighted at 12% per game, last season’s games are weighted at 6% per game, and each game played this season of course gets 100% weighting per game. For a team that’s played three preseason games, 17 games last year, and eight games this regular season, they account for approximately 3.84%, 10.87%, and 85.29%, respectively. Even though I haven’t quite phased out the influence of the preseason and last season’s games, the ratings are almost entirely determined by games played this season. And after seven or eight games per team, we should have a pretty good idea of the quality of most teams. Because the ratings are based on pure points, they are useful for predicting the success of teams in the future, including distinguishing between 2-5 teams like the Baltimore Ravens and the Las Vegas Raiders. Although the Ravens have been underwhelming so far this season, they still have a legitimate chance to make the playoffs, and their point differential suggests that they might be better than their record indicates.
Let’s get to the ratings.
Predictive Ratings
These are forward looking ratings, meaning that they’re intended to evaluate how good a team is and predict its future success, but they don’t evaluate the quality of a team’s achievements earlier in the season. These ratings are based purely on points. They don’t factor in wins and losses, only the margin of victory. The ratings don’t explicitly calculate the strength of schedule, though I calculate this afterwards. However, because of how the ratings are calculated, the quality of opponents does influence the ratings.
The offense and defense columns refer to each team’s point scoring tendencies instead of the efficiency ratings that some other rating systems use. The overall rating is approximately the sum of a team’s offense and defense ratings. To predict the score of a game for the home team, take the home team’s offense rating, add half of the home advantage, subtract the visiting team’s defense rating, and add the mean score. Predicting the score is similar for the visiting team. Take the visiting team’s offense rating, subtract half of the home advantage, subtract the home team’s defense rating, and add the mean score. Predicting the margin of victory for a game is done by taking the home team’s rating, adding the home advantage, and subtracting the away team’s rating. For neutral site games, the home advantage is set to zero.
Predictive Ratings
Home advantage: 3.29 points
Mean score: 22.30 points
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
1 +2 9.84 +1.93 Indianapolis Colts 8.87 1.00
2 9.40 +1.02 Los Angeles Rams 2.20 7.18
3 -2 9.21 -0.27 Detroit Lions 7.22 1.98
4 +2 8.36 +1.90 Kansas City Chiefs 2.15 6.20
5 7.74 +0.78 Houston Texans -0.78 8.52
6 -2 7.23 +0.09 Seattle Seahawks 4.89 2.32
7 +2 5.75 +1.65 Denver Broncos 0.66 5.10
8 -1 5.60 +0.45 Philadelphia Eagles 3.78 1.80
9 -1 5.03 +0.06 Green Bay Packers 2.39 2.63
10 4.21 +0.50 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3.34 0.86
11 +3 3.38 +2.94 Buffalo Bills 4.20 -0.82
12 +9 1.79 +3.32 Los Angeles Chargers 0.52 1.29
13 +3 1.44 +1.39 New England Patriots 0.74 0.68
14 -2 0.45 -0.41 San Francisco 49ers -0.73 1.18
15 +5 0.01 +1.28 Baltimore Ravens 4.23 -4.19
16 +3 -0.63 -0.08 Arizona Cardinals -1.41 0.78
17 +1 -1.39 -1.39 Washington Commanders 0.55 -1.92
18 -1 -1.57 -1.60 Dallas Cowboys 6.36 -7.97
19 +3 -1.62 +0.14 Jacksonville Jaguars -1.73 0.11
20 -9 -1.64 -3.94 Minnesota Vikings -1.16 -0.51
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
21 -8 -1.67 -2.21 Pittsburgh Steelers 0.23 -1.88
22 -7 -2.13 -2.55 Chicago Bears -1.13 -0.97
23 +1 -2.46 -0.40 New York Giants -1.14 -1.32
24 +4 -4.48 +3.25 Miami Dolphins -0.92 -3.56
25 -2 -5.53 -3.72 Atlanta Falcons -6.52 0.96
26 -1 -7.16 -1.56 Cleveland Browns -8.48 1.29
27 +3 -7.25 +0.62 New York Jets -4.07 -3.16
28 -2 -8.00 -2.07 Carolina Panthers -5.62 -2.40
29 -2 -8.11 -1.40 Cincinnati Bengals 0.19 -8.30
30 +1 -8.36 +0.40 Las Vegas Raiders -6.79 -1.56
31 -2 -8.59 -0.78 New Orleans Saints -6.32 -2.28
32 -8.88 +0.46 Tennessee Titans -5.75 -3.13 Schedule Strength
The first column is the expected losing percentage (1 minus winning percentage) for a hypothetical average NFL team in each team’s games played to date. Larger numbers mean a tougher schedule. The second column is the same thing, just for future games instead of past games.
The third column is the average opponent rating, with an adjustment for the site of games, for previously played games. The fourth column is the average opponent rating for the future games that each team will play. These two columns are the same schedule strength metrics from my previous NFL articles.
In college football, the two approaches to schedule strength would differ more just because the approach used in the first two columns limits the influence of truly lopsided blowout games. In the NFL, there just aren’t that many blowouts, and the teams are more evenly balanced. Therefore, there’s just not too much of a difference in the two approaches to measuring schedule strength.
Schedule Strength for an Average Team
Home advantage: 3.29 points
Mean score: 22.30 points
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
1 Indianapolis Colts .429 (30) .571 (3) -2.61 (30) 2.71 (3)
2 Los Angeles Rams .566 (5) .515 (17) 2.35 (6) 0.49 (17)
3 Detroit Lions .512 (12) .517 (16) 0.50 (12) 0.75 (15)
4 Kansas City Chiefs .490 (19) .559 (5) -0.47 (18) 2.08 (5)
5 Houston Texans .555 (7) .533 (8) 2.01 (7) 1.29 (7)
6 Seattle Seahawks .491 (18) .523 (12) -0.49 (19) 0.96 (9)
7 Denver Broncos .461 (24) .524 (11) -1.38 (24) 0.92 (11)
8 Philadelphia Eagles .567 (4) .527 (9) 2.45 (4) 0.87 (12)
9 Green Bay Packers .471 (22) .505 (20) -1.15 (22) 0.26 (19)
10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers .548 (8) .424 (28) 1.93 (8) -2.70 (28)
11 Buffalo Bills .357 (31) .499 (21) -5.10 (31) -0.13 (21)
12 Los Angeles Chargers .496 (17) .527 (10) -0.12 (17) 0.96 (10)
13 New England Patriots .351 (32) .405 (31) -5.47 (32) -3.42 (31)
14 San Francisco 49ers .558 (6) .483 (24) 2.35 (5) -0.67 (24)
15 Baltimore Ravens .576 (3) .426 (27) 2.70 (3) -2.70 (29)
16 Arizona Cardinals .477 (21) .573 (2) -0.89 (21) 2.82 (1)
17 Washington Commanders .505 (13) .563 (4) 0.21 (14) 2.22 (4)
18 Dallas Cowboys .503 (14) .519 (14) 0.22 (13) 0.80 (13)
19 Jacksonville Jaguars .534 (10) .519 (13) 1.03 (10) 0.76 (14)
20 Minnesota Vikings .448 (26) .575 (1) -1.99 (27) 2.81 (2)
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
21 Pittsburgh Steelers .446 (27) .506 (19) -1.96 (26) 0.24 (20)
22 Chicago Bears .462 (23) .513 (18) -1.29 (23) 0.43 (18)
23 New York Giants .578 (2) .488 (23) 2.77 (2) -0.25 (22)
24 Miami Dolphins .478 (20) .417 (30) -0.61 (20) -3.09 (30)
25 Atlanta Falcons .457 (25) .517 (15) -1.54 (25) 0.56 (16)
26 Cleveland Browns .499 (16) .388 (32) -0.03 (16) -3.98 (32)
27 New York Jets .441 (29) .447 (26) -2.13 (29) -1.98 (26)
28 Carolina Panthers .444 (28) .538 (7) -2.03 (28) 1.23 (8)
29 Cincinnati Bengals .502 (15) .455 (25) 0.08 (15) -1.61 (25)
30 Las Vegas Raiders .546 (9) .543 (6) 1.76 (9) 1.56 (6)
31 New Orleans Saints .515 (11) .423 (29) 0.61 (11) -2.69 (27)
32 Tennessee Titans .640 (1) .493 (22) 5.20 (1) -0.36 (23)Season Simulation and Playoff Chances
This season simulation is based on games and computer ratings through October 27, 2025. The season was simulated 20,000 times, and the results of the simulations have been aggregated to predict final records and playoff chances. Tiebreakers for making the postseason are simplified, and the simulations don’t factor in potential issues like injuries, but this is still useful for making an educated guess about the standings at the end of the regular season.
Projected Standings
First up is the projected won-loss records, points scored, and points allowed for each team. The rating column is the team’s overall rating, included as a measure of team strength.
AFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
New England Patriots 11.60 5.37 0.03 .683 444.70 335.21 1.44
Buffalo Bills 10.84 6.12 0.04 .639 469.93 373.97 3.38
Miami Dolphins 6.16 10.81 0.04 .363 393.02 446.59 -4.48
New York Jets 4.30 12.66 0.04 .254 338.81 438.52 -7.25
AFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Pittsburgh Steelers 8.50 8.46 0.04 .501 417.58 436.30 -1.67
Baltimore Ravens 7.68 9.28 0.04 .453 459.14 468.17 0.01
Cincinnati Bengals 6.01 10.95 0.03 .355 391.28 528.23 -8.11
Cleveland Browns 5.69 11.26 0.05 .336 277.15 363.05 -7.16
AFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Indianapolis Colts 13.02 3.95 0.03 .767 523.31 343.83 9.84
Houston Texans 9.49 7.45 0.05 .560 362.68 253.01 7.74
Jacksonville Jaguars 8.42 8.54 0.04 .497 343.54 375.44 -1.62
Tennessee Titans 3.60 13.36 0.04 .213 248.67 441.80 -8.88
AFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Denver Broncos 11.53 5.43 0.04 .679 396.36 299.05 5.75
Kansas City Chiefs 10.90 6.05 0.04 .643 425.37 288.19 8.36
Los Angeles Chargers 9.65 7.31 0.04 .569 385.37 363.21 1.79
Las Vegas Raiders 4.68 12.27 0.05 .277 247.37 417.67 -8.36
NFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Philadelphia Eagles 11.50 5.47 0.03 .677 450.49 386.24 5.60
Dallas Cowboys 6.96 9.01 1.03 .440 498.68 524.11 -1.57
Washington Commanders 6.63 10.33 0.03 .391 395.33 438.24 -1.39
New York Giants 6.03 10.94 0.04 .356 372.52 433.38 -2.46
NFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Detroit Lions 12.05 4.92 0.03 .710 513.36 365.84 9.21
Green Bay Packers 11.18 4.78 1.04 .688 442.45 352.64 5.03
Chicago Bears 8.33 8.63 0.04 .491 381.09 423.34 -2.13
Minnesota Vikings 6.84 10.12 0.04 .404 372.01 423.71 -1.64
NFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11.98 4.99 0.03 .706 431.30 351.76 4.21
Carolina Panthers 6.49 10.47 0.04 .383 294.64 412.57 -8.00
Atlanta Falcons 6.52 10.43 0.05 .385 275.68 368.25 -5.53
New Orleans Saints 4.24 12.72 0.04 .251 274.90 406.82 -8.59
NFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Los Angeles Rams 12.13 4.83 0.04 .715 413.96 270.98 9.40
Seattle Seahawks 11.54 5.43 0.04 .680 451.43 333.42 7.23
San Francisco 49ers 9.72 7.24 0.04 .573 351.76 346.68 0.45
Arizona Cardinals 6.15 10.81 0.04 .363 348.79 382.48 -0.63 Playoff Chances
The next table shows each team’s chances of making the playoffs, winning their division, and having the best record in the conference. The mean playoff seed is an average that uses only the seasons when each team made the playoffs. Div% and Conf% are the probabilities of a team having the best record in their division and conference, respectively.
AFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
New England Patriots 1.44 .683 93.27% 63.95% 10.29% 3.45
Buffalo Bills 3.38 .639 83.86% 35.94% 5.54% 4.40
Miami Dolphins -4.48 .363 0.76% 0.11% 0.00% 6.23
New York Jets -7.25 .254 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% 6.64
AFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Pittsburgh Steelers -1.67 .501 57.61% 55.60% 0.33% 3.94
Baltimore Ravens 0.01 .453 37.23% 35.84% 0.01% 4.06
Cincinnati Bengals -8.11 .355 6.17% 5.75% 0.00% 4.17
Cleveland Browns -7.16 .336 3.06% 2.83% 0.00% 4.21
AFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Indianapolis Colts 9.84 .767 99.47% 91.94% 62.08% 1.75
Houston Texans 7.74 .560 60.23% 6.62% 1.85% 5.64
Jacksonville Jaguars -1.62 .497 24.68% 1.43% 0.26% 6.11
Tennessee Titans -8.88 .213 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 7.00
AFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Denver Broncos 5.75 .679 90.85% 52.53% 9.27% 3.78
Kansas City Chiefs 8.36 .643 84.70% 37.26% 9.59% 4.24
Los Angeles Chargers 1.79 .569 57.93% 10.20% 0.78% 5.51
Las Vegas Raiders -8.36 .277 0.11% 0.01% 0.00% 6.41
NFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Philadelphia Eagles 5.60 .677 96.76% 95.36% 14.26% 2.95
Dallas Cowboys -1.57 .440 9.84% 2.76% 0.01% 5.95
Washington Commanders -1.39 .391 3.87% 1.76% 0.01% 5.44
New York Giants -2.46 .356 2.29% 0.12% 0.00% 6.62
NFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Detroit Lions 9.21 .710 96.81% 56.87% 23.66% 3.49
Green Bay Packers 5.03 .688 95.21% 41.94% 14.86% 4.12
Chicago Bears -2.13 .491 23.86% 1.00% 0.10% 6.36
Minnesota Vikings -1.64 .404 4.81% 0.20% 0.01% 6.54
NFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4.21 .706 99.34% 98.88% 14.30% 2.87
Carolina Panthers -8.00 .383 3.37% 0.73% 0.00% 6.11
Atlanta Falcons -5.53 .385 2.54% 0.39% 0.00% 6.27
New Orleans Saints -8.59 .251 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 4.00
NFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Los Angeles Rams 9.40 .715 96.66% 57.12% 22.41% 3.51
Seattle Seahawks 7.23 .680 93.29% 35.95% 9.44% 4.46
San Francisco 49ers 0.45 .573 68.53% 6.84% 0.96% 5.98
Arizona Cardinals -0.63 .363 2.80% 0.08% 0.00% 6.67Possible Regular Season Outcomes
To give a range of how good or bad a team’s final record might be, several percentiles are shown for each team’s final winning percentage.
AFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
New England Patriots .683 98.65% .588 .647 .706 .765 .765
Buffalo Bills .639 94.45% .529 .588 .647 .706 .765
Miami Dolphins .363 5.03% .235 .294 .353 .412 .471
New York Jets .254 0.10% .176 .176 .235 .294 .353
AFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Pittsburgh Steelers .501 49.59% .412 .471 .500 .559 .588
Baltimore Ravens .453 29.82% .353 .412 .471 .529 .588
Cincinnati Bengals .355 4.10% .235 .294 .353 .412 .471
Cleveland Browns .336 2.53% .235 .294 .353 .412 .471
AFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Indianapolis Colts .767 99.99% .647 .706 .765 .824 .882
Houston Texans .560 76.74% .471 .529 .588 .588 .647
Jacksonville Jaguars .497 47.58% .412 .441 .471 .529 .588
Tennessee Titans .213 0.01% .118 .176 .235 .235 .294
AFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Denver Broncos .679 98.67% .588 .647 .706 .706 .765
Kansas City Chiefs .643 95.60% .529 .588 .647 .706 .765
Los Angeles Chargers .569 79.45% .471 .529 .588 .647 .647
Las Vegas Raiders .277 0.27% .176 .235 .294 .353 .353
NFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Philadelphia Eagles .677 98.47% .588 .647 .706 .706 .765
Dallas Cowboys .440 14.38% .324 .382 .441 .500 .559
Washington Commanders .391 9.81% .294 .353 .412 .471 .500
New York Giants .356 4.08% .235 .294 .353 .412 .471
NFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Detroit Lions .710 99.22% .588 .647 .706 .765 .824
Green Bay Packers .688 96.92% .559 .618 .676 .735 .794
Chicago Bears .491 45.16% .353 .412 .471 .529 .588
Minnesota Vikings .404 12.97% .294 .353 .412 .471 .529
NFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .706 99.50% .588 .647 .706 .765 .824
Carolina Panthers .383 6.12% .294 .353 .353 .412 .471
Atlanta Falcons .385 7.83% .294 .353 .382 .412 .471
New Orleans Saints .251 0.06% .176 .176 .235 .294 .353
NFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Los Angeles Rams .715 99.47% .588 .647 .706 .765 .824
Seattle Seahawks .680 98.18% .588 .647 .706 .765 .765
San Francisco 49ers .573 81.62% .471 .529 .588 .647 .647
Arizona Cardinals .363 5.22% .235 .294 .353 .412 .471Postseason Projections
The final table shows each team’s probability of reaching the playoffs, the divisional round, the conference championship, winning their conference, and winning the Super Bowl.
AFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
New England Patriots .683 93.27% 48.91% 19.80% 6.69% 2.38%
Buffalo Bills .639 83.86% 43.62% 18.37% 7.73% 3.09%
Miami Dolphins .363 0.76% 0.14% 0.03% 0.01% 0.01%
New York Jets .254 0.06% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00%
AFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Pittsburgh Steelers .501 57.61% 23.47% 5.92% 1.91% 0.57%
Baltimore Ravens .453 37.23% 16.16% 4.77% 1.69% 0.55%
Cincinnati Bengals .355 6.17% 1.50% 0.24% 0.02% 0.00%
Cleveland Browns .336 3.06% 0.76% 0.12% 0.03% 0.01%
AFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Indianapolis Colts .767 99.47% 88.76% 63.30% 36.55% 20.89%
Houston Texans .560 60.23% 33.79% 15.72% 9.16% 4.72%
Jacksonville Jaguars .497 24.68% 7.24% 1.80% 0.56% 0.16%
Tennessee Titans .213 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Denver Broncos .679 90.85% 55.43% 29.15% 13.72% 6.11%
Kansas City Chiefs .643 84.70% 56.82% 32.88% 18.53% 9.96%
Los Angeles Chargers .569 57.93% 23.38% 7.90% 3.40% 1.19%
Las Vegas Raiders .277 0.11% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Philadelphia Eagles .677 96.76% 63.34% 30.00% 13.20% 6.31%
Dallas Cowboys .440 9.84% 2.56% 0.62% 0.22% 0.03%
Washington Commanders .391 3.87% 1.20% 0.24% 0.07% 0.01%
New York Giants .356 2.29% 0.49% 0.08% 0.02% 0.01%
NFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Detroit Lions .710 96.81% 68.47% 41.91% 23.72% 13.37%
Green Bay Packers .688 95.21% 51.67% 23.74% 10.77% 4.86%
Chicago Bears .491 23.86% 5.24% 1.20% 0.38% 0.11%
Minnesota Vikings .404 4.81% 1.09% 0.23% 0.10% 0.03%
NFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .706 99.34% 62.74% 27.18% 11.39% 4.59%
Carolina Panthers .383 3.37% 0.40% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00%
Atlanta Falcons .385 2.54% 0.45% 0.08% 0.01% 0.01%
New Orleans Saints .251 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Los Angeles Rams .715 96.66% 68.29% 42.02% 23.67% 13.25%
Seattle Seahawks .680 93.29% 53.34% 26.88% 14.45% 7.13%
San Francisco 49ers .573 68.53% 19.93% 5.58% 1.92% 0.62%
Arizona Cardinals .363 2.80% 0.80% 0.18% 0.08% 0.03%Week 9 Game Predictions
The thresholds for close games, blowouts, and high and low scoring games are different in the NFL than in college football. That’s because NFL teams are balanced enough in talent to usually avoid truly lopsided scores and there’s just less scoring overall.
Games are ranked based on the projected quality. This factors in the overall strength of the two teams and the potential for a competitive game. Game quality ratings are not directly comparable between college football and the NFL for many of the same reasons I just mentioned. This is just for predicting which NFL games are most and least compelling each weekend.
Beside each team, there are two numbers in parentheses. One is the predicted margin of victory (positive) or defeat (negative), the other is the probability of winning. In the event that a margin is larger than what’s indicated by the predicted score, that’s because there’s nothing in the math that prevents a forecast of negative points with a sufficiently lopsided matchup. This isn’t even close to possible with the current NFL ratings, even with the weakest offense against the strongest defense, but it does occur once in awhile in college football. A negative score is impossible, of course, so the score would be set to zero in those instances. However, there’s no upper limit on how many points a team can be projected to score. But with more parity between NFL teams, even the highest scoring predictions aren’t going to be nearly as crazy as what is possible with the college football ratings.
#1: Kansas City Chiefs (1.70, 54.80%) at Buffalo Bills (-1.70, 44.74%), Tie (0.46%)
Estimated score: 23.62 - 21.94, Total: 45.56
Quality: 88.65%, Team quality: 83.76%, Competitiveness: 99.29%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 20.90%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 23.25%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 23.30%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 19.02%
#2: Denver Broncos (-5.27, 34.52%) at Houston Texans (5.27, 65.05%), Tie (0.43%)
Estimated score: 12.79 - 18.05, Total: 30.85
Quality: 87.44%, Team quality: 84.61%, Competitiveness: 93.39%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 23.97%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 21.74%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 3.95%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 55.97%
#3: Seattle Seahawks (5.33, 65.22%) at Washington Commanders (-5.33, 34.35%), Tie (0.43%)
Estimated score: 27.46 - 22.17, Total: 49.63
Quality: 73.67%, Team quality: 65.48%, Competitiveness: 93.24%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 24.05%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 21.70%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 32.83%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 12.27%
#4: Indianapolis Colts (8.23, 72.81%) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-8.23, 26.80%), Tie (0.38%)
Estimated score: 31.40 - 23.16, Total: 54.57
Quality: 72.89%, Team quality: 67.64%, Competitiveness: 84.64%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 28.69%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 19.52%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 46.02%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 6.60%
#5: San Francisco 49ers (-0.38, 48.64%) at New York Giants (0.38, 50.90%), Tie (0.46%)
Estimated score: 21.24 - 21.63, Total: 42.87
Quality: 57.13%, Team quality: 43.19%, Competitiveness: 99.96%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 20.56%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 23.42%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 17.96%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 24.54%
#6: Arizona Cardinals (-2.34, 42.84%) at Dallas Cowboys (2.34, 56.70%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 27.21 - 29.52, Total: 56.74
Quality: 55.84%, Team quality: 42.00%, Competitiveness: 98.66%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.23%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 23.08%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 52.05%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 4.87%
#7: Minnesota Vikings (-14.13, 14.49%) at Detroit Lions (14.13, 85.24%), Tie (0.26%)
Estimated score: 17.51 - 31.66, Total: 49.17
Quality: 55.47%, Team quality: 52.84%, Competitiveness: 61.12%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 42.56%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 13.68%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 31.68%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 12.94%
#8: Baltimore Ravens (1.21, 53.35%) at Miami Dolphins (-1.21, 46.19%), Tie (0.46%)
Estimated score: 28.44 - 27.21, Total: 55.65
Quality: 49.65%, Team quality: 35.05%, Competitiveness: 99.64%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 20.72%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 23.34%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 49.02%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 5.69%
#9: Atlanta Falcons (-10.26, 22.07%) at New England Patriots (10.26, 77.59%), Tie (0.34%)
Estimated score: 13.45 - 23.72, Total: 37.17
Quality: 39.18%, Team quality: 27.92%, Competitiveness: 77.17%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 32.89%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 17.65%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 9.43%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 38.54%
#10: Los Angeles Chargers (7.39, 70.69%) at Tennessee Titans (-7.39, 28.91%), Tie (0.40%)
Estimated score: 24.30 - 16.90, Total: 41.20
Quality: 36.53%, Team quality: 23.61%, Competitiveness: 87.43%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 27.16%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 20.23%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 15.06%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 28.36%
#11: Jacksonville Jaguars (3.46, 59.93%) at Las Vegas Raiders (-3.46, 39.62%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 20.48 - 17.03, Total: 37.51
Quality: 32.91%, Team quality: 19.16%, Competitiveness: 97.10%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 22.03%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 22.69%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 9.84%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 37.63%
#12: Chicago Bears (2.69, 57.72%) at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.69, 41.83%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 27.82 - 25.11, Total: 52.93
Quality: 32.64%, Team quality: 18.81%, Competitiveness: 98.23%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.45%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 22.97%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 41.50%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 8.21%
#13: Carolina Panthers (-16.31, 11.10%) at Green Bay Packers (16.31, 88.68%), Tie (0.22%)
Estimated score: 12.40 - 28.72, Total: 41.12
Quality: 28.37%, Team quality: 20.98%, Competitiveness: 51.87%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 48.62%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 11.44%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 14.94%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 28.54%
#14: New Orleans Saints (-21.27, 5.59%) at Los Angeles Rams (21.27, 94.28%), Tie (0.13%)
Estimated score: 7.15 - 28.42, Total: 35.57
Quality: 23.51%, Team quality: 19.94%, Competitiveness: 32.72%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 62.70%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 6.92%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 7.68%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 42.88%That’s all for the ratings and predictions this week. Thanks for reading!
This article incorporates data acquired from Pro Football Reference.