Week 4 NFL Predictions
Updated ratings, season simulations, and examining what would happen if I projected the NFL postseason like my college football playoff predictions.
I’ve got one more article to post today, and it’s this one, a preview of the NFL games this weekend. I won’t have that much to say because a lot of my effort has gone into getting the college football playoff ratings working and testing out a few ideas for how those should work. That said, because I’m now using the same Python code to generate the tables for my college football and NFL articles, I’ll ask the ridiculous question of what would happen if I used my college football playoff predictor for NFL teams.
Updated Ratings
Let’s begin with some updated ratings after three weeks of NFL regular season action. My preseason ratings weren’t that impressed with the Detroit Lions, but they ranked the Baltimore Ravens heavy favorites to win the Super Bowl. With Baltimore now at 1-2, there’s a new team at the top of the ratings, and it’s also forcing some changes to my simulations of the rest of the season. Baltimore has played a tough schedule, no doubt, but it’s still surprising to see them at 1-2. Based on Baltimore’s current rating and their schedule to date, my ratings project a winning percentage of .653, meaning that they should probably be 2-1 despite the difficult schedule.
Unlike experiment with my college football ratings, there’s just a single set of NFL ratings. Preseason games are worth 32% of a regular season game in my ratings, and each game last season is worth 16%. Assuming three games this season, three preseason games, and 17 games last season, the 2025 regular season should account for 44.91% of a team’s rating, the preseason for 14.37%, and last season for 40.72%. These are estimates, and the actual numbers can vary a bit from team to team for a few reasons. Preseason games still matter in the ratings, but it’s mainly a split now between the 2025 regular season and the 2024 regular season. I’ll continue to phase out the 2024 games and the 2025 preseason over the next several weeks.
The Move column indicates how much a team’s rank has risen or fallen since last week. The Change column is the change in the team’s predictive rating from the prior ratings. Going forward, I’ll describe these as predictive ratings to distinguish them from some of my other college football ratings like strength of record.
Predictive Ratings
Home advantage: 2.33 points
Mean score: 22.09 points
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
1 +1 10.66 +2.60 Detroit Lions 9.87 0.79
2 -1 9.67 -2.23 Baltimore Ravens 9.76 -0.13
3 6.99 -0.92 Green Bay Packers 0.68 6.32
4 6.99 -0.54 Buffalo Bills 7.10 -0.09
5 +5 6.08 +3.14 Seattle Seahawks 3.10 3.01
6 -1 5.14 -0.39 Denver Broncos 1.27 3.90
7 +2 5.10 +1.15 Indianapolis Colts 4.98 0.12
8 -2 5.00 -0.43 Philadelphia Eagles 2.58 2.40
9 -1 4.07 -0.10 Los Angeles Chargers 1.08 2.96
10 +10 4.06 +4.91 Minnesota Vikings 1.32 2.72
11 -4 2.81 -2.06 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3.15 -0.32
12 +1 2.14 +1.16 Kansas City Chiefs 0.03 2.10
13 -2 2.12 -0.36 Los Angeles Rams 1.69 0.39
14 0.75 +0.36 Washington Commanders 3.13 -2.39
15 -3 0.74 -1.22 Houston Texans -4.89 5.61
16 +1 0.50 +1.12 Arizona Cardinals -2.04 2.55
17 +5 0.28 +3.33 Chicago Bears 0.45 -0.14
18 +1 0.19 +0.94 Pittsburgh Steelers -0.43 0.60
19 -4 0.03 -0.03 San Francisco 49ers -0.84 0.88
20 +4 -2.99 +1.22 New York Jets -0.53 -2.43
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
21 +6 -3.17 +1.68 Jacksonville Jaguars -2.93 -0.25
22 +4 -3.68 +1.02 Miami Dolphins -2.70 -0.97
23 +5 -4.73 +0.72 Cleveland Browns -6.70 2.00
24 -6 -4.83 -4.21 Atlanta Falcons -5.63 0.79
25 -9 -4.98 -4.43 Cincinnati Bengals 1.77 -6.73
26 -1 -5.87 -1.27 Las Vegas Raiders -4.04 -1.84
27 -4 -5.89 -2.34 New York Giants -4.82 -1.06
28 -7 -5.92 -2.94 Dallas Cowboys -0.10 -5.83
29 +1 -6.44 -0.44 New England Patriots -4.17 -2.27
30 +1 -8.08 -1.33 Tennessee Titans -4.06 -4.00
31 +1 -8.13 +4.51 Carolina Panthers -3.92 -4.20
32 -3 -8.54 -2.54 New Orleans Saints -4.21 -4.34 Schedule Strength
I’ve moved strength of schedule to a new table and added another couple of columns. The first column (SOS) is the expected losing percentage (1 minus winning percentage) for a hypothetical average NFL team in each team’s games played to date. Larger numbers mean a tougher schedule. The second column is the same thing, just for future games instead of past games.
The third column (OppRtg) is the average opponent rating for previously played games, with an adjustment for the site of games. The fourth column is the average opponent rating for the future games that each team will play. These two columns are the same schedule strength metrics from my previous NFL articles.
Schedule Strength for an Average Team
Home advantage: 2.33 points
Mean score: 22.09 points
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
1 Detroit Lions .678 (1) .516 (13) 6.43 (1) 0.49 (13)
2 Baltimore Ravens .601 (3) .475 (22) 3.53 (2) -0.79 (21)
3 Green Bay Packers .540 (11) .541 (6) 1.45 (9) 1.40 (6)
4 Buffalo Bills .505 (16) .416 (31) 0.22 (16) -2.85 (32)
5 Seattle Seahawks .401 (28) .499 (16) -3.55 (28) -0.06 (17)
6 Denver Broncos .540 (10) .464 (26) 1.14 (12) -1.25 (27)
7 Indianapolis Colts .410 (27) .483 (19) -2.99 (27) -0.61 (19)
8 Philadelphia Eagles .463 (23) .549 (4) -1.33 (23) 1.69 (4)
9 Los Angeles Chargers .491 (20) .479 (20) -0.31 (20) -0.68 (20)
10 Minnesota Vikings .383 (29) .601 (1) -3.95 (30) 3.53 (1)
11 Tampa Bay Buccaneers .452 (24) .463 (27) -1.58 (24) -1.21 (26)
12 Kansas City Chiefs .555 (7) .530 (11) 1.84 (8) 1.05 (12)
13 Los Angeles Rams .498 (18) .535 (8) -0.00 (18) 1.20 (9)
14 Washington Commanders .429 (26) .545 (5) -2.36 (26) 1.49 (5)
15 Houston Texans .542 (9) .531 (10) 1.37 (11) 1.07 (11)
16 Arizona Cardinals .363 (31) .512 (15) -4.77 (31) 0.36 (15)
17 Chicago Bears .553 (8) .539 (7) 2.15 (7) 1.36 (7)
18 Pittsburgh Steelers .490 (21) .559 (2) -0.33 (21) 2.12 (2)
19 San Francisco 49ers .500 (17) .471 (25) 0.13 (17) -1.08 (25)
20 New York Jets .578 (6) .415 (32) 2.55 (6) -2.77 (31)
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
21 Jacksonville Jaguars .357 (32) .515 (14) -4.90 (32) 0.43 (14)
22 Miami Dolphins .578 (5) .450 (28) 2.66 (5) -1.70 (28)
23 Cleveland Browns .584 (4) .498 (17) 3.12 (4) 0.00 (16)
24 Atlanta Falcons .510 (14) .473 (23) 0.36 (14) -0.99 (24)
25 Cincinnati Bengals .483 (22) .555 (3) -0.51 (22) 1.98 (3)
26 Las Vegas Raiders .508 (15) .496 (18) 0.24 (15) -0.19 (18)
27 New York Giants .493 (19) .530 (12) -0.23 (19) 1.09 (10)
28 Dallas Cowboys .519 (13) .534 (9) 0.58 (13) 1.23 (8)
29 New England Patriots .383 (30) .437 (29) -3.90 (29) -2.03 (29)
30 Tennessee Titans .601 (2) .475 (21) 3.34 (3) -0.89 (22)
31 Carolina Panthers .449 (25) .473 (24) -1.72 (25) -0.94 (23)
32 New Orleans Saints .539 (12) .430 (30) 1.42 (10) -2.38 (30)In college football, the two approaches to schedule strength would differ more just because the approach used in the first two columns limits the influence of truly lopsided blowout games. In the NFL, there just aren’t that many blowouts, and the teams are more evenly balanced. Therefore, there’s just not too much of a difference in the two approaches to measuring schedule strength.
College Football Playoff Ratings for the NFL
I’ve already commented on the Ravens starting the season 1-2. That said, their point differential is +15, so they’re not going to be hit too hard in the predictive ratings. They’ve also played a tough schedule, which also helps boost their predictive rating. That said, if the season ended today and we just looked at the standings, the 1-2 Ravens would miss the playoffs. Using the college football playoff ratings, they’d be on the bubble at #14. Nine of the top 14 teams are NFC teams, and only the Arizona Cardinals would miss the playoffs from the NFC West. The NFC North would also get three teams in the playoffs. Every division has at least one team in the top 14, but this would be heavily tilted toward the two very good NFC divisions. This is just for fun, and I’m sure a lot of AFC teams would be glad that the NFL doesn’t actually pick postseason teams this way.
Here are the four factors in these ratings:
The z-score of the team’s strength of record for a hypothetical team 1.5 standard deviations above the NFL average. (SOR; 55%)
The z-score of the team’s predictive rating (Fwd; 30%)
The team’s winning percentage (Win%; 10%)
The z-score of the team’s strength of schedule for a hypothetical team 1.5 standard deviations above the NFL average. (SOS; 5%)
This is the same approach I used to generate college football playoff predictions, and it actually uses the same code as well. It’s a ridiculous question because the NFL playoffs are decided by the standings, but it’s still interesting to look at how different approaches would rank NFL teams. Current division leaders, including all teams tied atop each division, are indicated in italic font and an asterisk before the rank.
College Football Playoff Ratings for the NFL
Rank Move Rating Change Team SOR SOS Win% Fwd
*1 .9173 -.0265 Buffalo Bills .947 .514 1.000 .903
*2 +8 .8843 +.1958 Detroit Lions .864 .995 .667 .976
*3 +1 .8750 +.0120 Philadelphia Eagles .932 .304 1.000 .824
*4 +2 .8659 +.0347 Los Angeles Chargers .937 .361 1.000 .775
*5 .8559 +.0122 Indianapolis Colts .911 .120 1.000 .829
*6 -3 .8298 -.0624 Tampa Bay Buccaneers .925 .224 1.000 .699
*7 +1 .7973 +.0227 San Francisco 49ers .947 .520 1.000 .502
*8 -6 .7753 -.1582 Green Bay Packers .735 .667 .667 .903
9 -2 .6714 -.1243 Los Angeles Rams .700 .479 .667 .654
10 +5 .6682 +.1261 Seattle Seahawks .608 .115 .667 .871
*11 +8 .6274 +.1978 Minnesota Vikings .590 .078 .667 .775
*12 +6 .6123 +.1551 Pittsburgh Steelers .678 .370 .667 .514
13 +1 .6120 +.0493 Washington Commanders .662 .294 .667 .555
14 -3 .6015 -.0814 Baltimore Ravens .422 .940 .333 .964
15 -3 .5474 -.1318 Arizona Cardinals .576 .057 .667 .537
16 -3 .5163 -.0719 Denver Broncos .355 .773 .333 .831
*17 -8 .5152 -.1865 Cincinnati Bengals .683 .394 .667 .177
18 +3 .4608 +.1464 Jacksonville Jaguars .562 .040 .667 .277
19 +4 .4523 +.1494 Kansas City Chiefs .340 .713 .333 .655
20 +5 .4401 +.2348 Chicago Bears .378 .850 .333 .521
Rank Move Rating Change Team SOR SOS Win% Fwd
21 +5 .3597 +.1677 Cleveland Browns .407 .916 .333 .189
22 -5 .2805 -.1781 Dallas Cowboys .319 .619 .333 .135
23 -7 .2798 -.2371 Atlanta Falcons .300 .521 .333 .184
24 -4 .2553 -.1251 Las Vegas Raiders .288 .453 .333 .137
25 -3 .2304 -.0790 Houston Texans .061 .607 .000 .555
26 +6 .1975 +.1413 Carolina Panthers .242 .225 .333 .065
27 -3 .1774 -.1191 New England Patriots .193 .063 .333 .115
28 +2 .1702 +.0478 Miami Dolphins .093 .903 .000 .246
29 -2 .1684 +.0099 New York Jets .077 .791 .000 .289
30 -2 .1111 -.0406 Tennessee Titans .087 .869 .000 .066
31 .0859 +.0009 New Orleans Saints .065 .665 .000 .056
32 -3 .0855 -.0591 New York Giants .047 .374 .000 .136NFL Season Simulations
These are based on 20,000 simulations of the NFL season using the results from the first three weeks of the season and the current ratings to predict the remaining 15 weeks and the postseason. Tiebreakers for making the postseason are simplified, and the simulations don’t factor in potential issues like injuries, but this is still useful for making an educated guess about the standings at the end of the regular season.
Projected Standings
First up is the projected won-loss records, points scored, and points allowed for each team. The rating column is the team’s overall rating, included as a measure of team strength.
AFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Buffalo Bills 13.49 3.47 0.04 .795 520.79 352.97 6.99
New York Jets 6.99 9.96 0.05 .413 393.15 419.62 -2.99
New England Patriots 6.46 10.48 0.05 .382 336.08 405.81 -6.44
Miami Dolphins 6.23 10.71 0.06 .368 349.67 418.08 -3.68
AFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Baltimore Ravens 11.63 5.33 0.04 .685 556.28 395.90 9.67
Pittsburgh Steelers 8.26 8.68 0.06 .488 376.69 408.84 0.19
Cincinnati Bengals 6.58 10.38 0.05 .388 385.06 514.40 -4.98
Cleveland Browns 6.27 10.67 0.07 .371 277.57 363.88 -4.73
AFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Indianapolis Colts 12.04 4.91 0.05 .710 464.55 338.76 5.10
Jacksonville Jaguars 7.59 9.35 0.06 .448 331.32 361.70 -3.17
Houston Texans 6.81 10.11 0.08 .403 278.40 296.98 0.74
Tennessee Titans 4.35 12.60 0.06 .257 290.80 432.03 -8.08
AFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Los Angeles Chargers 11.77 5.17 0.06 .694 394.55 309.57 4.07
Denver Broncos 10.30 6.64 0.06 .608 398.55 306.94 5.14
Kansas City Chiefs 8.38 8.57 0.06 .494 371.92 353.64 2.14
Las Vegas Raiders 5.95 10.99 0.06 .352 297.40 395.70 -5.87
NFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Philadelphia Eagles 11.19 5.75 0.05 .660 419.52 359.56 5.00
Washington Commanders 8.66 8.28 0.06 .511 424.15 411.69 0.75
Dallas Cowboys 5.38 11.57 0.05 .318 373.23 490.60 -5.92
New York Giants 4.49 12.46 0.05 .265 290.96 416.97 -5.89
NFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Detroit Lions 12.52 4.44 0.04 .738 548.20 381.71 10.66
Green Bay Packers 10.96 5.98 0.06 .646 384.35 288.59 6.99
Minnesota Vikings 9.15 7.79 0.06 .540 392.07 360.49 4.06
Chicago Bears 7.55 9.39 0.05 .446 384.93 417.48 0.28
NFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11.43 5.52 0.05 .674 435.43 373.60 2.81
Atlanta Falcons 6.53 10.41 0.06 .386 289.59 359.38 -4.83
Carolina Panthers 5.41 11.54 0.05 .320 327.98 417.77 -8.13
New Orleans Saints 4.77 12.18 0.05 .282 314.53 442.87 -8.54
NFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Seattle Seahawks 11.27 5.67 0.06 .665 433.39 308.52 6.08
San Francisco 49ers 10.37 6.57 0.06 .611 353.17 328.22 0.03
Los Angeles Rams 9.32 7.63 0.06 .550 401.55 376.92 2.12
Arizona Cardinals 9.03 7.91 0.07 .533 341.35 327.99 0.50 Playoff Chances
The next table shows each team’s chances of making the playoffs, winning their division, and having the best record in the conference. The mean playoff seed is an average that uses only the seasons when each team made the playoffs. Div% and Conf% are the probabilities of a team having the best record in their division and conference, respectively.
AFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Buffalo Bills 6.99 .795 99.81% 99.24% 56.17% 1.72
New York Jets -2.99 .413 18.50% 0.27% 0.02% 6.21
New England Patriots -6.44 .382 10.25% 0.29% 0.01% 6.33
Miami Dolphins -3.68 .368 9.77% 0.20% 0.01% 6.31
AFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Baltimore Ravens 9.67 .685 97.66% 89.48% 9.16% 3.10
Pittsburgh Steelers 0.19 .488 50.65% 8.47% 0.45% 5.64
Cincinnati Bengals -4.98 .388 14.46% 1.33% 0.02% 6.10
Cleveland Browns -4.73 .371 10.21% 0.72% 0.01% 6.19
AFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Indianapolis Colts 5.10 .710 98.06% 93.09% 18.14% 2.81
Jacksonville Jaguars -3.17 .448 29.79% 4.29% 0.12% 5.83
Houston Texans 0.74 .403 20.18% 2.57% 0.06% 5.93
Tennessee Titans -8.08 .257 1.06% 0.04% 0.00% 6.42
AFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Los Angeles Chargers 4.07 .694 96.52% 65.88% 13.36% 3.45
Denver Broncos 5.14 .608 86.39% 27.89% 2.03% 4.77
Kansas City Chiefs 2.14 .494 49.20% 5.93% 0.43% 5.70
Las Vegas Raiders -5.87 .352 7.50% 0.30% 0.00% 6.27
NFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Philadelphia Eagles 5.00 .660 88.89% 81.95% 13.38% 3.06
Washington Commanders 0.75 .511 34.23% 17.20% 0.74% 4.82
Dallas Cowboys -5.92 .318 1.53% 0.66% 0.00% 5.49
New York Giants -5.89 .265 0.46% 0.19% 0.00% 5.40
NFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Detroit Lions 10.66 .738 95.62% 66.73% 36.46% 2.85
Green Bay Packers 6.99 .646 82.95% 26.38% 12.04% 4.44
Minnesota Vikings 4.06 .540 41.07% 6.19% 1.63% 5.55
Chicago Bears 0.28 .446 12.67% 0.69% 0.08% 6.13
NFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2.81 .674 96.86% 96.11% 13.80% 2.92
Atlanta Falcons -4.83 .386 6.46% 2.50% 0.01% 5.43
Carolina Panthers -8.13 .320 1.88% 0.98% 0.00% 5.17
New Orleans Saints -8.54 .282 0.61% 0.41% 0.00% 4.85
NFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Seattle Seahawks 6.08 .665 83.49% 50.29% 13.25% 3.73
San Francisco 49ers 0.03 .611 68.42% 26.21% 5.61% 4.65
Los Angeles Rams 2.12 .550 44.96% 13.69% 1.88% 5.14
Arizona Cardinals 0.50 .533 39.90% 9.80% 1.14% 5.36Possible Regular Season Outcomes
To give a range of how good or bad a team’s final record might be, several percentiles are shown for each team’s final winning percentage.
AFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Buffalo Bills .795 99.87% .647 .735 .824 .882 .882
New York Jets .413 19.66% .294 .353 .412 .471 .529
New England Patriots .382 11.68% .235 .294 .353 .471 .529
Miami Dolphins .368 10.45% .235 .294 .353 .441 .529
AFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Baltimore Ravens .685 97.30% .588 .647 .706 .765 .824
Pittsburgh Steelers .488 43.96% .353 .412 .471 .559 .647
Cincinnati Bengals .388 12.26% .294 .294 .412 .471 .529
Cleveland Browns .371 9.91% .235 .294 .353 .412 .500
AFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Indianapolis Colts .710 97.80% .588 .647 .706 .765 .824
Jacksonville Jaguars .448 29.70% .294 .353 .471 .529 .588
Houston Texans .403 16.80% .294 .353 .412 .471 .529
Tennessee Titans .257 0.78% .118 .176 .235 .324 .412
AFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Los Angeles Chargers .694 96.74% .559 .647 .706 .765 .824
Denver Broncos .608 85.80% .471 .529 .588 .676 .706
Kansas City Chiefs .494 47.39% .353 .412 .471 .588 .647
Las Vegas Raiders .352 6.58% .235 .294 .353 .412 .471
NFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Philadelphia Eagles .660 93.63% .529 .588 .647 .706 .765
Washington Commanders .511 53.83% .353 .441 .529 .588 .647
Dallas Cowboys .318 3.60% .176 .235 .294 .412 .471
New York Giants .265 1.01% .118 .176 .235 .353 .412
NFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Detroit Lions .738 99.26% .618 .676 .765 .824 .853
Green Bay Packers .646 92.50% .529 .588 .647 .706 .765
Minnesota Vikings .540 64.50% .412 .471 .529 .588 .647
Chicago Bears .446 29.27% .294 .353 .471 .529 .588
NFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .674 95.85% .529 .588 .676 .765 .824
Atlanta Falcons .386 13.00% .235 .294 .412 .471 .529
Carolina Panthers .320 3.58% .176 .235 .294 .412 .471
New Orleans Saints .282 1.46% .176 .235 .294 .353 .412
NFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Seattle Seahawks .665 94.11% .529 .588 .647 .735 .765
San Francisco 49ers .611 85.47% .471 .529 .588 .706 .765
Los Angeles Rams .550 67.83% .412 .471 .529 .647 .706
Arizona Cardinals .533 61.82% .412 .471 .529 .588 .647Postseason Projections
The final table shows each team’s probability of reaching the playoffs, the divisional round, the conference championship, winning their conference, and winning the Super Bowl.
AFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Buffalo Bills .795 99.81% 87.81% 54.29% 25.62% 13.15%
New York Jets .413 18.50% 3.89% 0.76% 0.22% 0.05%
New England Patriots .382 10.25% 1.73% 0.28% 0.07% 0.01%
Miami Dolphins .368 9.77% 1.85% 0.39% 0.13% 0.02%
AFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Baltimore Ravens .685 97.66% 76.78% 48.43% 31.09% 18.15%
Pittsburgh Steelers .488 50.65% 16.01% 4.51% 1.62% 0.51%
Cincinnati Bengals .388 14.46% 2.61% 0.51% 0.20% 0.04%
Cleveland Browns .371 10.21% 1.97% 0.36% 0.08% 0.01%
AFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Indianapolis Colts .710 98.06% 70.76% 34.78% 15.93% 7.09%
Jacksonville Jaguars .448 29.79% 6.81% 1.38% 0.38% 0.09%
Houston Texans .403 20.18% 6.34% 1.90% 0.70% 0.26%
Tennessee Titans .257 1.06% 0.17% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Los Angeles Chargers .694 96.52% 60.03% 26.61% 11.48% 4.79%
Denver Broncos .608 86.39% 43.81% 19.20% 9.71% 4.38%
Kansas City Chiefs .494 49.20% 18.18% 6.36% 2.67% 1.01%
Las Vegas Raiders .352 7.50% 1.26% 0.24% 0.08% 0.01%
NFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Philadelphia Eagles .660 88.89% 57.41% 29.17% 12.93% 5.85%
Washington Commanders .511 34.23% 13.53% 4.63% 1.80% 0.64%
Dallas Cowboys .318 1.53% 0.30% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
New York Giants .265 0.46% 0.10% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Detroit Lions .738 95.62% 77.82% 55.23% 35.84% 21.95%
Green Bay Packers .646 82.95% 51.14% 26.92% 14.35% 7.22%
Minnesota Vikings .540 41.07% 19.25% 7.99% 3.72% 1.47%
Chicago Bears .446 12.67% 4.38% 1.19% 0.45% 0.14%
NFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .674 96.86% 57.72% 24.93% 9.59% 3.67%
Atlanta Falcons .386 6.46% 1.50% 0.29% 0.06% 0.01%
Carolina Panthers .320 1.88% 0.35% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00%
New Orleans Saints .282 0.61% 0.11% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01%
NFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Seattle Seahawks .665 83.49% 54.31% 28.61% 13.75% 6.88%
San Francisco 49ers .611 68.42% 27.71% 8.96% 2.93% 0.95%
Los Angeles Rams .550 44.96% 19.27% 7.11% 2.79% 1.03%
Arizona Cardinals .533 39.90% 15.11% 4.84% 1.77% 0.61%At this point, there’s still a lot of uncertainty with 15 weeks left. However, I believe these projections are still useful because they take into account how the difficulty of each team’s remaining schedule can affect their final record. For example, the Vikings have the toughest remaining schedule. Despite a strong rating, their playoff probabilities are actually lower than teams with lower ratings like the Rams and 49ers. I’ll continue running these simulations each week, and the uncertainty will decrease considerably over the course of the season.
Week 4 Game Predictions
The thresholds for close games, blowouts, and high and low scoring games are different in the NFL than in college football. That’s because NFL teams are balanced enough in talent to usually avoid truly lopsided scores and there’s just less scoring overall.
Games are ranked based on the projected quality. This factors in the overall strength of the two teams and the potential for a competitive game. Game quality ratings are not directly comparable between college football and the NFL for many of the same reasons I just mentioned. This is just for predicting which NFL games are most and least compelling each weekend.
Beside each team, there are two numbers in parentheses. One is the predicted margin of victory (positive) or defeat (negative), the other is the probability of winning. In the event that a margin is larger than what’s indicated by the predicted score, that’s because there’s nothing in the math that prevents a forecast of negative points with a sufficiently lopsided matchup. This isn’t even close to possible with the current NFL ratings, even with the weakest offense against the strongest defense, but it does occur once in awhile in college football. A negative score is impossible, of course, so the score would be set to zero in those instances. However, there’s no upper limit on how many points a team can be projected to score. But with more parity between NFL teams, even the highest scoring predictions aren’t going to be nearly as crazy as what is possible with the college football ratings.
#1: Baltimore Ravens (5.19, 65.68%) at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.19, 33.90%), Tie (0.41%)
Estimated score: 28.59 - 23.42, Total: 52.01
Quality: 86.14%, Team quality: 83.03%, Competitiveness: 92.71%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.56%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 22.85%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 41.45%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 8.44%
#2: Philadelphia Eagles (-0.15, 49.31%) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0.15, 50.24%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 23.83 - 24.01, Total: 47.85
Quality: 83.73%, Team quality: 76.61%, Competitiveness: 99.99%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 17.98%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 24.77%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 30.24%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 14.13%
#3: Indianapolis Colts (0.65, 51.81%) at Los Angeles Rams (-0.65, 47.74%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 25.53 - 24.83, Total: 50.36
Quality: 82.42%, Team quality: 74.87%, Competitiveness: 99.88%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 18.03%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 24.74%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 36.85%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 10.45%
#4: Seattle Seahawks (3.25, 59.92%) at Arizona Cardinals (-3.25, 39.65%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 21.48 - 18.22, Total: 39.70
Quality: 79.08%, Team quality: 71.38%, Competitiveness: 97.07%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 19.40%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 24.00%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 13.41%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 31.40%
#5: Minnesota Vikings (1.53, 54.59%) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.53, 44.96%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 21.65 - 20.11, Total: 41.76
Quality: 74.86%, Team quality: 64.99%, Competitiveness: 99.34%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 18.29%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 24.60%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 16.89%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 26.32%
#6: Green Bay Packers (10.58, 79.66%) at Dallas Cowboys (-10.58, 20.02%), Tie (0.32%)
Estimated score: 27.44 - 16.84, Total: 44.28
Quality: 49.06%, Team quality: 40.22%, Competitiveness: 72.98%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 32.10%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 17.68%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 21.89%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 20.72%
#7: Los Angeles Chargers (7.62, 72.44%) at New York Giants (-7.62, 27.19%), Tie (0.38%)
Estimated score: 23.07 - 15.48, Total: 38.55
Quality: 48.43%, Team quality: 36.58%, Competitiveness: 84.93%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 25.56%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 20.80%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 11.69%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 34.41%
#8: Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.53, 32.92%) at San Francisco 49ers (5.53, 66.67%), Tie (0.41%)
Estimated score: 17.11 - 22.67, Total: 39.78
Quality: 48.35%, Team quality: 35.09%, Competitiveness: 91.76%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 22.04%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 22.59%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 13.54%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 31.19%
#9: Washington Commanders (3.25, 59.90%) at Atlanta Falcons (-3.25, 39.67%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 23.26 - 20.02, Total: 43.29
Quality: 48.30%, Team quality: 34.07%, Competitiveness: 97.08%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 19.39%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 24.00%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 19.83%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 22.83%
#10: Chicago Bears (3.82, 61.62%) at Las Vegas Raiders (-3.82, 37.95%), Tie (0.43%)
Estimated score: 23.22 - 19.37, Total: 42.58
Quality: 43.01%, Team quality: 28.79%, Competitiveness: 95.99%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 19.93%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 23.71%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 18.45%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 24.40%
#11: Cincinnati Bengals (-12.45, 16.15%) at Denver Broncos (12.45, 83.57%), Tie (0.28%)
Estimated score: 18.80 - 31.26, Total: 50.06
Quality: 41.57%, Team quality: 33.33%, Competitiveness: 64.66%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 36.98%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 15.53%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 36.05%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 10.84%
#12: New York Jets (-1.64, 44.63%) at Miami Dolphins (1.64, 54.92%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 21.37 - 22.99, Total: 44.37
Quality: 41.15%, Team quality: 26.49%, Competitiveness: 99.25%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 18.34%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 24.58%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 22.08%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 20.54%
#13: Cleveland Browns (-17.73, 8.01%) at Detroit Lions (17.73, 91.82%), Tie (0.17%)
Estimated score: 13.43 - 31.13, Total: 44.56
Quality: 38.10%, Team quality: 36.61%, Competitiveness: 41.28%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 52.60%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 9.61%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 22.51%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 20.14%
#14: Tennessee Titans (-11.16, 18.78%) at Houston Texans (11.16, 80.92%), Tie (0.31%)
Estimated score: 11.26 - 22.37, Total: 33.63
Quality: 26.74%, Team quality: 16.47%, Competitiveness: 70.46%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 33.55%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 17.03%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 6.10%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 48.18%
#15: New Orleans Saints (-17.86, 7.86%) at Buffalo Bills (17.86, 91.98%), Tie (0.17%)
Estimated score: 16.81 - 34.71, Total: 51.52
Quality: 23.81%, Team quality: 18.20%, Competitiveness: 40.75%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 52.99%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 9.48%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 40.05%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 9.01%
#16: Carolina Panthers (-4.03, 37.32%) at New England Patriots (4.03, 62.26%), Tie (0.43%)
Estimated score: 19.28 - 23.29, Total: 42.57
Quality: 18.67%, Team quality: 8.26%, Competitiveness: 95.54%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 20.15%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 23.59%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 18.42%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 24.43%I’ll post more college football content this weekend after Saturday’s games, and I plan to get the NFL ratings posted a couple of days earlier next week. Philadelphia-Tampa Bay is certainly the most even matchup of the weekend, but Baltimore-Kansas City looks a lot more intriguing than it did a couple of weeks ago. Thanks for reading!
The ratings in this article are based on standings and past game logs from Pro Football Reference.