Merry Christmas! Much like Thanksgiving, there are three NFL games today. Unlike Thanksgiving, all three of today’s games are behind one TV paywall or another. It’s week 17, and most of the playoff bids have already been determined, though today’s Lions-Vikings game is a must win game if the Lions are going to keep their playoff hopes alive. Let’s get to the scenarios for playoff bids, then I’ll post the updated ratings and week 17 predictions. I featured the Chargers for this article’s photo because even though they’re already in the playoffs, they could have a big impact on the potentially most complex and confusing of the four playoff races. NFL tiebreakers can get confusing, but let’s look at the four races and see why Colts fans should also be really big fans of the Chargers for the final two weekends of the regular season.
NFC South
Only one of the remaining NFC South teams in contention will make the playoffs, and that bid will come from winning the division. Right now, the Panthers are ahead by a game, but they also have a much more difficult remaining schedule with a home game against the Seahawks, then closing out the regular season with a road game against the Buccaneers. In contrast, that regular season finale is a home game for the Buccaneers, and they have a road game against the Dolphins this weekend. The Panthers’ home game against the Seahawks is much more difficult than the Buccaneers playing on the road at Miami, so the most likely scenario is a tie atop the NFC South after this weekend. Because the Buccaneers have a higher rating than the Panthers, plus they’ll have the benefit of playing the regular season finale at home, it makes sense that the season simulator gives them a slight edge.
Because the teams are separated by a single game unlike the other divisions involved, both teams have multiple ways to reach the playoffs. It’s complex enough that I’m not going to run through the various scenarios, but my simulator gives the Buccaneers a 53.02% chance of winning the division. ESPN’s FPI gives the Buccaneers a 55% chance of winning the division and reaching the playoffs. PlayoffStatus.com projects a 55% chance of the Panthers winning the division. This division is effectively a toss-up entering week 17.
NFC North
This also means that only one of the two NFC North teams still left in contention for playoff spot can get in. Right now, the Packers are 9-5-1, and the Lions are 8-7. The Packers also won both of their games against the Lions this season. If the Lions won both of their remaining games, but the Packers lost one of their remaining games and tied the other, the Packers would finish at 9-6-2 and the Lions at 10-7. These would be identical winning percentages, but the Packers would still get the tiebreaker because they won both of their games against the Lions. The only scenario where Detroit reaches the playoffs is to win both of their remaining games and have Green Bay lose both of their games. The simulator gives this a 5.88% chance of happening, which seems reasonable. This weekend, the Lions must defeat the Vikings (60.97%) and the Ravens must win a road game against the Packers (37.48%). And in week 18, the Lions must win against the Bears (56.34%) and the Vikings must win against the Packers (44.67%). If I multiply out the individual probabilities for each of the four games, I get a 5.75% chance of all four games having the necessary results, so the probabilities over 20,000 simulations is effectively right on the money.
AFC North
In the AFC North, the Ravens must get to 9-8 to have any chance at the playoffs. But that also requires the Steelers to lose both remaining games and finish at 9-8, and then for the Ravens to reach the playoffs on the tiebreakers. The Texans already have 10 wins, meaning that they would have a better record than both of these teams, therefore only one AFC North team can reach the playoffs. In this scenario, the Ravens and Steelers would then have their tie broken based on divisional records. The Steelers are currently 3-1 in divisional games but the Ravens are 3-2. Because the Steelers must lose their remaining games and the Ravens have to win theirs, the Steelers would finish 3-3 in division while the Ravens would be 4-2. Therefore, the tiebreaker would go to Baltimore.
However, in order for this tiebreaker to matter, the Ravens must win against the Packers this weekend, and the Steelers must lose to the Browns. The Browns have a 28.80% probability of winning according to my predictions, but the Ravens have just a 37.48% chance of winning. Multiplying these together, there should be a 10.79% chance of both of these outcomes happening this weekend.
If both of these things happen, we go to week 18 where the Ravens play at the Steelers and have a 42.83% chance of winning as per my ratings. By my math, there’s a 4.62% chance of all three events happening, meaning that the playoff simulator’s relatively crude tiebreaking system is probably a bit pessimistic about giving the Ravens just a 3.29% chance of reaching the playoff. Still, it’s a long shot for the Ravens to reach the playoffs.
AFC South
Finally, there’s the AFC South, with the Texans at 10-5 and the Colts at 8-7. The Texans have a seven game winning streak while the Colts have lost five straight games. Houston won the one game they’ve played against each other so far this season. But Indianapolis must win out, so the season series would be tied 1-1. The Colts are 2-2 in the division while the Texans are 4-1. But if the Colts win their remaining games, including the week 18 game against the Texans, both teams would be 4-2 in the division. The next tiebreaker is common opponents.
HOU IND
LAR L L
JAX LW L?
TEN WW WW
SEA L L
SF W L
DEN L W
KC W L
ARI W W
LV W W
LAC ? WRight now, the Texans are 7-4 against common opponents and Colts are 6-5. For this scenario to even matter, the Texans must lose both remaining games and the Colts must win out, so they’ll be tied 7-5 each against common opponents. Next up is conference records, where the Texans are currently 8-2 and the Colts are 6-4. Again, for this scenario to matter, the both teams would finish 8-4 in conference. This then goes to strength of victory, which is the winning percentage of teams that that each team has won against. For that scenario to matter, the Texans must lose to the Chargers, and the Colts must win against the Jaguars.
HOU: TEN, BAL, SF, JAX, TEN, BUF, IND, KC, ARI, LV
IND: MIA, DEN, TEN, LV, ARI, LAC, TEN, ATL + JAX & HOU
I’ll remove the teams from each other’s lists and any teams that both the Colts and Texans have won against.
HOU: BAL (7-8), SF (11-4), BUF (12-3), KC (6-9) = 36-24
IND: MIA (6-9), DEN (12-3), LAC (11-4), ATL (6-9) = 35-25
And here are their projected final winning percentages:
HOU: BAL (.460), SF (.709), BUF (.731), KC (.431) = .583
IND: MIA (.390), DEN (.766), LAC (.694), ATL (.398) = .562
But that’s not quite accurate for this specific scenario because the Chargers must win against the the Texans this weekend, which would make them 12-5. Then they have a 40.87% chance of winning against the Broncos in week 18 and a 0.44% chance of a tie. That actually gives the chargers a projected .743 winning percentage if this scenario is relevant. Let’s update the winning percentages for the strength of victory tiebreaker.
HOU: BAL (.460), SF (.709), BUF (.731), KC (.431) = .583
IND: MIA (.390), DEN (.766), LAC (.743), ATL (.398) = .574
That’s still a slight edge to the Texans in the strength of victory tiebreaker. My season simulator isn’t actually this detailed in how it breaks ties, but if there’s a tie atop the AFC South, there’s a pretty good chance it will be broken by strength of victory. And right now, there’s a small edge to the Texans. But for this to even matter, the Colts must win against the Jaguars (48.28%), the Chargers must win against the Texans (35.95%), and then the Colts must win in week 18 (35.95%). That’s a combined 6.24%, which is what’s necessary for any of these tiebreakers to matter. My season simulator gives the Colts a 4.83% chance of reaching the playoffs, but that’s probably a bit generous due to the simplified tiebreakers it uses. FPI only gives them a 1.8% chance of reaching the playoffs, and PlayoffStatus.com puts their chances at 3%. The bottom line is that the Colts do have a playoff chance, but it’s requires them to win out, get help from the Chargers, and get additional help with the strength of victory tiebreaker.
Predictive Ratings
Here are the predictive ratings I used to generate these projections. These are forward looking ratings, meaning that they’re intended to evaluate how good a team is and predict its future success, but they don’t evaluate the quality of a team’s achievements earlier in the season. These ratings are based purely on points. They don’t factor in wins and losses, only the margin of victory. The ratings don’t explicitly calculate the strength of schedule, though I calculate this afterwards. However, because of how the ratings are calculated, the quality of opponents does influence the ratings.
The offense and defense columns refer to each team’s point scoring tendencies instead of the efficiency ratings that some other rating systems use. The overall rating is approximately the sum of a team’s offense and defense ratings. To predict the score of a game for the home team, take the home team’s offense rating, add half of the home advantage, subtract the visiting team’s defense rating, and add the mean score. Predicting the score is similar for the visiting team. Take the visiting team’s offense rating, subtract half of the home advantage, subtract the home team’s defense rating, and add the mean score. Predicting the margin of victory for a game is done by taking the home team’s rating, adding the home advantage, and subtracting the away team’s rating. For neutral site games, the home advantage is set to zero.
Predictive Ratings
Home advantage: 1.79 points
Mean score: 22.49 points
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
1 13.20 -0.13 Los Angeles Rams 8.18 5.05
2 12.41 -0.08 Seattle Seahawks 6.96 5.45
3 8.00 -1.50 Houston Texans 0.31 7.66
4 +1 7.32 +0.83 Jacksonville Jaguars 4.63 2.65
5 +4 5.84 +1.52 San Francisco 49ers 3.56 2.29
6 -2 5.02 -1.87 Indianapolis Colts 5.41 -0.40
7 -1 4.80 -0.96 Detroit Lions 6.27 -1.46
8 3.98 -0.70 Buffalo Bills 5.26 -1.26
9 +2 3.73 -0.02 Philadelphia Eagles -0.98 4.68
10 +3 3.53 +0.72 New England Patriots 2.24 1.27
11 -4 2.83 -2.38 Kansas City Chiefs -1.18 4.02
12 2.70 -0.40 Green Bay Packers -0.12 2.81
13 -3 2.68 -1.14 Denver Broncos 0.22 2.45
14 1.44 +0.77 Los Angeles Chargers -0.28 1.73
15 +1 0.83 +0.95 Pittsburgh Steelers 0.37 0.45
16 +1 0.78 +0.90 Chicago Bears 1.84 -1.06
17 -2 0.27 -0.18 Baltimore Ravens 0.16 0.10
18 +1 -0.82 +0.32 Minnesota Vikings -3.28 2.45
19 -1 -0.94 -0.35 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.80 -1.73
20 +3 -3.06 +0.69 Atlanta Falcons -2.64 -0.44
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
21 -3.06 -0.75 Arizona Cardinals -0.64 -2.41
22 -3.24 +0.43 Carolina Panthers -4.32 1.06
23 -3 -3.26 -1.23 Dallas Cowboys 4.92 -8.20
24 +3 -5.53 +1.15 New Orleans Saints -6.30 0.75
25 -5.68 -0.00 New York Giants -1.81 -3.89
26 +2 -5.92 +2.19 Cincinnati Bengals 1.09 -6.97
27 -3 -6.07 -1.39 Miami Dolphins -3.53 -2.56
28 +1 -6.31 +1.83 Tennessee Titans -4.13 -2.15
29 -3 -6.37 -0.59 Washington Commanders -2.59 -3.80
30 +1 -8.44 +1.20 Cleveland Browns -7.59 -0.86
31 +1 -9.95 +1.41 Las Vegas Raiders -7.68 -2.25
32 -2 -10.63 -1.08 New York Jets -5.18 -5.46 Schedule Strength
The first column is the expected losing percentage (1 minus winning percentage) for a hypothetical average NFL team in each team’s games played to date. Larger numbers mean a tougher schedule. The second column is the same thing, just for future games instead of past games.
The third column is the average opponent rating, with an adjustment for the site of games, for previously played games. The fourth column is the average opponent rating for the future games that each team will play. These two columns are the same schedule strength metrics from my previous NFL articles.
In college football, the two approaches to schedule strength would differ more just because the approach used in the first two columns limits the influence of truly lopsided blowout games. In the NFL, there just aren’t that many blowouts, and the teams are more evenly balanced. Therefore, there’s just not too much of a difference in the two approaches to measuring schedule strength.
Schedule Strength for an Average Team
Home advantage: 1.79 points
Mean score: 22.49 points
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
1 Los Angeles Rams .587 (2) .411 (23) 3.22 (3) -3.06 (23)
2 Seattle Seahawks .536 (7) .586 (10) 1.50 (7) 3.10 (10)
3 Houston Texans .556 (4) .595 (9) 2.17 (4) 3.23 (9)
4 Jacksonville Jaguars .534 (8) .484 (19) 1.24 (8) -0.65 (19)
5 San Francisco 49ers .537 (6) .627 (5) 1.68 (5) 4.80 (6)
6 Indianapolis Colts .529 (10) .712 (1) 1.20 (9) 7.66 (1)
7 Detroit Lions .485 (21) .552 (13) -0.41 (21) 1.77 (14)
8 Buffalo Bills .445 (29) .368 (28) -1.94 (29) -5.25 (29)
9 Philadelphia Eagles .490 (20) .469 (20) -0.38 (20) -1.20 (20)
10 New England Patriots .394 (32) .268 (32) -3.90 (32) -8.35 (32)
11 Kansas City Chiefs .512 (12) .400 (25) 0.35 (12) -3.63 (25)
12 Green Bay Packers .469 (23) .492 (18) -1.11 (23) -0.28 (18)
13 Denver Broncos .448 (28) .562 (11) -1.92 (28) 2.14 (11)
14 Los Angeles Chargers .454 (26) .654 (3) -1.66 (26) 5.34 (4)
15 Pittsburgh Steelers .493 (18) .383 (26) -0.31 (18) -4.09 (26)
16 Chicago Bears .445 (30) .651 (4) -2.00 (30) 5.32 (5)
17 Baltimore Ravens .476 (22) .604 (8) -0.91 (22) 3.56 (8)
18 Minnesota Vikings .498 (15) .557 (12) 0.03 (15) 1.96 (13)
19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers .538 (5) .365 (29) 1.55 (6) -4.65 (28)
20 Atlanta Falcons .490 (19) .547 (14) -0.31 (19) 2.04 (12)
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
21 Arizona Cardinals .585 (3) .622 (6) 3.24 (2) 5.44 (3)
22 Carolina Panthers .493 (17) .654 (2) -0.19 (17) 5.74 (2)
23 Dallas Cowboys .466 (25) .377 (27) -1.26 (25) -4.23 (27)
24 New Orleans Saints .497 (16) .416 (22) 0.07 (14) -2.90 (22)
25 New York Giants .522 (11) .313 (30) 0.77 (11) -6.61 (30)
26 Cincinnati Bengals .510 (13) .292 (31) 0.25 (13) -7.54 (31)
27 Miami Dolphins .434 (31) .537 (15) -2.44 (31) 1.30 (15)
28 Tennessee Titans .596 (1) .522 (16) 3.47 (1) 0.90 (16)
29 Washington Commanders .498 (14) .506 (17) -0.09 (16) 0.23 (17)
30 Cleveland Browns .467 (24) .426 (21) -1.23 (24) -2.54 (21)
31 Las Vegas Raiders .533 (9) .410 (24) 1.12 (10) -3.21 (24)
32 New York Jets .451 (27) .608 (7) -1.71 (27) 3.75 (7) NFL Season Simulation
This season simulation is based on games and computer ratings through December 1, 2025. The season was simulated 20,000 times, and the results of the simulations have been aggregated to predict final records and playoff chances. Tiebreakers for making the postseason are simplified, and the simulations don’t factor in potential issues like injuries, but this is still useful for making an educated guess about the standings at the end of the regular season.
Projected Standings
First up is the projected won-loss records, points scored, and points allowed for each team. The rating column is the team’s overall rating, included as a measure of team strength.
AFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Buffalo Bills 12.42 4.57 0.01 .731 492.14 383.86 3.98
New England Patriots 13.59 3.41 0.01 .799 467.59 334.04 3.53
Miami Dolphins 6.62 10.37 0.01 .390 355.59 422.25 -6.07
New York Jets 3.32 13.68 0.01 .195 316.92 489.55 -10.63
AFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Pittsburgh Steelers 10.26 6.73 0.01 .604 411.67 386.96 0.83
Baltimore Ravens 7.81 9.18 0.01 .460 399.38 395.03 0.27
Cincinnati Bengals 6.08 10.91 0.01 .358 411.23 507.09 -5.92
Cleveland Browns 3.68 13.31 0.01 .217 282.74 403.27 -8.44
AFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Jacksonville Jaguars 12.37 4.62 0.01 .728 467.15 353.35 7.32
Houston Texans 11.26 5.73 0.01 .663 390.64 284.16 8.00
Indianapolis Colts 8.85 8.14 0.01 .521 464.64 402.03 5.02
Tennessee Titans 3.67 13.32 0.01 .216 284.82 451.04 -6.31
AFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Denver Broncos 13.02 3.97 0.01 .766 401.93 333.94 2.68
Los Angeles Chargers 11.78 5.21 0.01 .694 383.72 343.22 1.44
Kansas City Chiefs 7.32 9.67 0.01 .431 379.65 324.44 2.83
Las Vegas Raiders 2.66 14.33 0.01 .157 249.08 430.74 -9.95
NFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Philadelphia Eagles 11.24 5.75 0.01 .661 397.25 327.64 3.73
Dallas Cowboys 7.06 8.94 1.01 .445 484.68 512.63 -3.26
New York Giants 3.04 13.95 0.01 .179 364.84 462.08 -5.68
Washington Commanders 4.66 12.34 0.01 .274 352.43 460.56 -6.37
NFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Chicago Bears 11.75 5.24 0.01 .691 434.85 410.96 0.78
Green Bay Packers 10.16 5.83 1.01 .627 406.41 339.50 2.70
Detroit Lions 9.16 7.83 0.01 .539 506.40 422.35 4.80
Minnesota Vikings 7.85 9.14 0.01 .462 344.16 364.63 -0.82
NFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8.20 8.79 0.01 .482 395.22 417.78 -0.94
Carolina Panthers 8.55 8.44 0.01 .503 320.14 387.65 -3.24
Atlanta Falcons 6.77 10.22 0.01 .398 343.00 406.20 -3.06
New Orleans Saints 5.85 11.14 0.01 .344 288.68 376.77 -5.53
NFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Los Angeles Rams 12.74 4.26 0.00 .749 521.16 331.07 13.20
Seattle Seahawks 13.46 3.53 0.01 .792 496.64 314.60 12.41
San Francisco 49ers 12.05 4.94 0.01 .709 441.64 367.36 5.84
Arizona Cardinals 3.63 13.36 0.01 .214 365.18 474.84 -3.06 Playoff Chances
The next table shows each team’s chances of making the playoffs, winning their division, and having the best record in the conference. The mean playoff seed is an average that uses only the seasons when each team made the playoffs. Div% and Conf% are the probabilities of a team having the best record in their division and conference, respectively.
AFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Buffalo Bills 3.98 .731 100.00% 19.48% 5.68% 4.71
New England Patriots 3.53 .799 100.00% 80.52% 67.10% 1.98
Miami Dolphins -6.07 .390 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
New York Jets -10.63 .195 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
AFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Pittsburgh Steelers 0.83 .604 96.70% 96.70% 0.00% 4.00
Baltimore Ravens 0.27 .460 3.29% 3.29% 0.00% 4.00
Cincinnati Bengals -5.92 .358 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
Cleveland Browns -8.44 .217 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
AFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Jacksonville Jaguars 7.32 .728 100.00% 75.11% 11.87% 3.16
Houston Texans 8.00 .663 95.17% 24.89% 0.09% 5.48
Indianapolis Colts 5.02 .521 4.83% 0.00% 0.00% 7.00
Tennessee Titans -6.31 .216 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
AFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Denver Broncos 2.68 .766 100.00% 70.12% 12.04% 3.27
Los Angeles Chargers 1.44 .694 100.00% 29.89% 3.21% 5.33
Kansas City Chiefs 2.83 .431 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
Las Vegas Raiders -9.95 .157 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
NFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Philadelphia Eagles 3.73 .661 100.00% 100.00% 0.01% 2.86
Dallas Cowboys -3.26 .445 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
New York Giants -5.68 .179 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
Washington Commanders -6.37 .274 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
NFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Chicago Bears 0.78 .691 100.00% 86.79% 6.49% 2.69
Green Bay Packers 2.70 .627 94.12% 13.21% 0.00% 6.27
Detroit Lions 4.80 .539 5.88% 0.00% 0.00% 7.00
Minnesota Vikings -0.82 .462 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
NFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -0.94 .482 53.02% 53.02% 0.00% 4.00
Carolina Panthers -3.24 .503 46.98% 46.98% 0.00% 3.99
Atlanta Falcons -3.06 .398 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
New Orleans Saints -5.53 .344 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
NFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Los Angeles Rams 13.20 .749 100.00% 36.23% 31.14% 3.67
Seattle Seahawks 12.41 .792 100.00% 57.61% 56.22% 2.93
San Francisco 49ers 5.84 .709 100.00% 6.17% 6.14% 5.54
Arizona Cardinals -3.06 .214 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--Possible Regular Season Outcomes
To give a range of how good or bad a team’s final record might be, several percentiles are shown for each team’s final winning percentage.
AFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Buffalo Bills .731 100.00% .706 .706 .706 .765 .765
New England Patriots .799 100.00% .765 .765 .824 .824 .824
Miami Dolphins .390 0.00% .353 .353 .412 .412 .412
New York Jets .195 0.00% .176 .176 .176 .235 .235
AFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Pittsburgh Steelers .604 100.00% .529 .588 .588 .647 .647
Baltimore Ravens .460 16.55% .412 .412 .471 .471 .529
Cincinnati Bengals .358 0.00% .294 .353 .353 .412 .412
Cleveland Browns .217 0.00% .176 .176 .235 .235 .294
AFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Jacksonville Jaguars .728 100.00% .706 .706 .706 .765 .765
Houston Texans .663 100.00% .588 .647 .647 .706 .706
Indianapolis Colts .521 66.79% .471 .471 .529 .529 .588
Tennessee Titans .216 0.00% .176 .176 .235 .235 .235
AFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Denver Broncos .766 100.00% .706 .765 .765 .824 .824
Los Angeles Chargers .694 100.00% .647 .647 .706 .706 .765
Kansas City Chiefs .431 0.00% .382 .412 .412 .471 .471
Las Vegas Raiders .157 0.00% .118 .118 .176 .176 .206
NFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Philadelphia Eagles .661 100.00% .588 .647 .647 .706 .706
Dallas Cowboys .445 0.00% .382 .441 .441 .500 .500
New York Giants .179 0.00% .118 .176 .176 .235 .235
Washington Commanders .274 0.00% .235 .235 .294 .294 .294
NFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Chicago Bears .691 100.00% .647 .647 .706 .706 .765
Green Bay Packers .627 100.00% .559 .618 .618 .676 .676
Detroit Lions .539 82.48% .471 .529 .529 .588 .588
Minnesota Vikings .462 17.80% .412 .412 .471 .471 .529
NFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .482 35.76% .412 .471 .471 .529 .529
Carolina Panthers .503 48.68% .471 .471 .471 .529 .529
Atlanta Falcons .398 0.00% .353 .353 .412 .412 .412
New Orleans Saints .344 0.00% .294 .294 .353 .353 .412
NFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Los Angeles Rams .749 100.00% .706 .765 .765 .765 .765
Seattle Seahawks .792 100.00% .765 .765 .824 .824 .824
San Francisco 49ers .709 100.00% .647 .706 .706 .765 .765
Arizona Cardinals .214 0.00% .176 .176 .235 .235 .235Postseason Projections
The final table shows each team’s probability of reaching the playoffs, the divisional round, the conference championship, winning their conference, and winning the Super Bowl.
AFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Buffalo Bills .731 100.00% 53.22% 25.26% 12.13% 4.29%
New England Patriots .799 100.00% 83.96% 43.13% 17.58% 5.76%
Miami Dolphins .390 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
New York Jets .195 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Pittsburgh Steelers .604 96.70% 43.85% 16.32% 6.52% 1.62%
Baltimore Ravens .460 3.29% 1.39% 0.47% 0.18% 0.05%
Cincinnati Bengals .358 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cleveland Browns .217 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Jacksonville Jaguars .728 100.00% 64.53% 39.86% 24.04% 9.78%
Houston Texans .663 95.17% 54.89% 32.13% 20.56% 8.72%
Indianapolis Colts .521 4.83% 2.41% 1.20% 0.58% 0.26%
Tennessee Titans .216 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Denver Broncos .766 100.00% 53.76% 24.88% 11.09% 3.35%
Los Angeles Chargers .694 100.00% 41.99% 16.74% 7.30% 1.85%
Kansas City Chiefs .431 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Las Vegas Raiders .157 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Philadelphia Eagles .661 100.00% 47.38% 21.49% 7.03% 3.28%
Dallas Cowboys .445 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
New York Giants .179 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Washington Commanders .274 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Chicago Bears .691 100.00% 50.14% 18.92% 4.27% 1.64%
Green Bay Packers .627 94.12% 43.93% 11.67% 4.16% 1.84%
Detroit Lions .539 5.88% 3.12% 0.84% 0.33% 0.15%
Minnesota Vikings .462 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .482 53.02% 12.33% 3.72% 0.96% 0.36%
Carolina Panthers .503 46.98% 9.13% 2.28% 0.48% 0.16%
Atlanta Falcons .398 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
New Orleans Saints .344 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Los Angeles Rams .749 100.00% 86.99% 59.48% 38.29% 27.34%
Seattle Seahawks .792 100.00% 88.82% 60.42% 35.91% 25.02%
San Francisco 49ers .709 100.00% 58.16% 21.18% 8.57% 4.52%
Arizona Cardinals .214 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Week 17 Game Predictions
The thresholds for close games, blowouts, and high and low scoring games are different in the NFL than in college football. That’s because NFL teams are balanced enough in talent to usually avoid truly lopsided scores and there’s just less scoring overall.
Games are ranked based on the projected quality. This factors in the overall strength of the two teams and the potential for a competitive game. Game quality ratings are not directly comparable between college football and the NFL for many of the same reasons I just mentioned. This is just for predicting which NFL games are most and least compelling each weekend.
Beside each team, there are two numbers in parentheses. One is the predicted margin of victory (positive) or defeat (negative), the other is the probability of winning. In the event that a margin is larger than what’s indicated by the predicted score, that’s because there’s nothing in the math that prevents a forecast of negative points with a sufficiently lopsided matchup. This isn’t even close to possible with the current NFL ratings, even with the weakest offense against the strongest defense, but it does occur once in awhile in college football. A negative score is impossible, of course, so the score would be set to zero in those instances. However, there’s no upper limit on how many points a team can be projected to score. But with more parity between NFL teams, even the highest scoring predictions aren’t going to be nearly as crazy as what is possible with the college football ratings.
#1: Jacksonville Jaguars (0.50, 51.27%) at Indianapolis Colts (-0.50, 48.28%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 26.62 - 26.15, Total: 52.77
Quality: 89.67%, Team quality: 84.94%, Competitiveness: 99.94%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.26%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.60%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 41.08%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 8.36%
#2: Houston Texans (4.77, 63.63%) at Los Angeles Chargers (-4.77, 35.95%), Tie (0.42%)
Estimated score: 20.17 - 15.45, Total: 35.62
Quality: 81.63%, Team quality: 75.90%, Competitiveness: 94.43%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 23.99%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 16.52%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 7.72%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 42.75%
#3: Philadelphia Eagles (-2.04, 43.75%) at Buffalo Bills (2.04, 55.80%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 21.87 - 23.97, Total: 45.84
Quality: 81.21%, Team quality: 73.57%, Competitiveness: 98.96%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.74%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.41%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 23.89%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 18.49%
#4: Denver Broncos (-1.95, 44.03%) at Kansas City Chiefs (1.95, 55.52%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 17.80 - 19.75, Total: 37.55
Quality: 76.58%, Team quality: 67.33%, Competitiveness: 99.05%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.69%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.43%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 9.87%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 37.53%
#5: Chicago Bears (-6.86, 30.38%) at San Francisco 49ers (6.86, 69.23%), Tie (0.39%)
Estimated score: 21.14 - 28.00, Total: 49.14
Quality: 72.48%, Team quality: 65.46%, Competitiveness: 88.86%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 26.84%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 15.43%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 31.60%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 12.97%
#6: Detroit Lions (3.83, 60.97%) at Minnesota Vikings (-3.83, 38.60%), Tie (0.43%)
Estimated score: 25.41 - 21.57, Total: 46.98
Quality: 71.26%, Team quality: 61.27%, Competitiveness: 96.38%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 23.01%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 16.90%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 26.43%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 16.44%
#7: Baltimore Ravens (-4.23, 37.48%) at Green Bay Packers (4.23, 62.09%), Tie (0.43%)
Estimated score: 18.95 - 23.17, Total: 42.12
Quality: 68.26%, Team quality: 57.68%, Competitiveness: 95.60%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 23.40%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 16.75%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 16.61%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 26.21%
#8: Seattle Seahawks (13.86, 84.50%) at Carolina Panthers (-13.86, 15.24%), Tie (0.26%)
Estimated score: 27.50 - 13.62, Total: 41.12
Quality: 59.36%, Team quality: 58.13%, Competitiveness: 61.91%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 42.14%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 10.32%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 14.93%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 28.52%
#9: Los Angeles Rams (14.47, 85.53%) at Atlanta Falcons (-14.47, 14.22%), Tie (0.25%)
Estimated score: 30.22 - 15.70, Total: 45.91
Quality: 59.27%, Team quality: 59.25%, Competitiveness: 59.31%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 43.78%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 9.84%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 24.05%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 18.35%
#10: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3.34, 59.56%) at Miami Dolphins (-3.34, 40.00%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 24.95 - 21.58, Total: 46.53
Quality: 41.39%, Team quality: 27.00%, Competitiveness: 97.24%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 22.59%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.07%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 25.41%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 17.23%
#11: Arizona Cardinals (1.06, 52.92%) at Cincinnati Bengals (-1.06, 46.63%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 27.92 - 26.89, Total: 54.81
Quality: 36.94%, Team quality: 22.48%, Competitiveness: 99.72%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.37%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.56%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 46.68%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 6.38%
#12: Pittsburgh Steelers (7.48, 70.82%) at Cleveland Browns (-7.48, 28.80%), Tie (0.38%)
Estimated score: 22.82 - 15.35, Total: 38.18
Quality: 35.37%, Team quality: 22.57%, Competitiveness: 86.90%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 27.86%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 15.05%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 10.66%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 35.87%
#13: Dallas Cowboys (1.31, 53.66%) at Washington Commanders (-1.31, 45.90%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 30.32 - 29.00, Total: 59.32
Quality: 35.09%, Team quality: 20.83%, Competitiveness: 99.57%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.44%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.53%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 59.17%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 3.30%
#14: New Orleans Saints (-1.00, 46.80%) at Tennessee Titans (1.00, 52.75%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 17.45 - 18.51, Total: 35.96
Quality: 29.41%, Team quality: 15.97%, Competitiveness: 99.75%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.35%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.57%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 8.08%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 41.81%
#15: New England Patriots (12.38, 81.79%) at New York Jets (-12.38, 17.92%), Tie (0.29%)
Estimated score: 29.30 - 16.94, Total: 46.24
Quality: 28.58%, Team quality: 18.51%, Competitiveness: 68.18%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 38.33%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 11.49%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 24.77%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 17.75%
#16: New York Giants (2.48, 57.09%) at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.48, 42.47%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 22.04 - 19.59, Total: 41.63
Quality: 20.44%, Team quality: 9.31%, Competitiveness: 98.46%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.98%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.31%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 15.77%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 27.34%Yes, I know I’m late getting this posted. It’s Christmas, and it also took awhile to run through the math for some of the more complex playoff scenarios. It wouldn’t surprise me if there’s only one playoff race left to discuss next weekend. Thanks for reading, and have a merry Christmas!
This article is based on ratings derived from data posted on Pro Football Reference.