Week 16 NFL Computer Ratings
Predictions for this week's games including Thursday night's NFC West matchup between the Rams and Seahawks
I’ve been working on some updates to my computer rating system, and as a result, 'I’m not going to write a whole lot in this article. Admittedly, that also means I’m being lazy about the photograph, which is of the site of this week’s Monday night game. I’ll discuss some of the changes to the rating system in an upcoming article, and I’m going to examine the impact of the updates on the predictions for the college football bowl games. Aside from a bug fix, the changes won’t be affecting the NFL ratings this season, but I’ll look at making the changes for next season. I’m also a bit late getting this posted, and that was due to one last glitch in the changes I’d made to the rating software, which I needed to go back and fix that before posting the article.
There are two main issues I want to consider in modifying the ratings. One is that my prediction system generally produces larger point spreads than other prediction systems like ESPN’s FPI. And my system also tends to produce low probabilities of upsets in games that appear to have a clear favorite, and perhaps the probabilities are tilted too much toward the favorites. That second part also likely affected the NFL predictions, where the Baltimore Ravens were predicted to almost certainly make the playoffs this season, a prediction that is now very much in doubt. Was there too little uncertainty in the predictions? My intuition is that the larger point spreads aren’t necessarily a problem, but I’ll probably reconsider whether to use the normal distribution for my predictions.
The bug fix I introduced doesn’t change the ratings much. For week 15’s ratings, it increased the rating for the Steelers by 0.22 points and decreases the Cardinals’ rating by 0.22 points. These were the largest changes in the ratings, and the actual bug fix was to adjust the width of the distribution of the possible scores for a team in a game. The week 16 ratings show changes compared to the new week 15 ratings, which I calculated again using the bug fix. The older distribution wasn’t necessarily going to result in ratings that were wrong, but the current approach makes more sense. But the bigger changes I’m exploring are using the logistic distribution instead of the normal distribution, and perhaps clipping the tails of the distributions when calculating the ratings to limit the effect of blowout games. And I’ll discuss this more in an upcoming article.
With that said, here are the ratings, with last week’s ratings also updated with the minor bug fix.
Predictive Ratings
These are forward looking ratings, meaning that they’re intended to evaluate how good a team is and predict its future success, but they don’t evaluate the quality of a team’s achievements earlier in the season. These ratings are based purely on points. They don’t factor in wins and losses, only the margin of victory. The ratings don’t explicitly calculate the strength of schedule, though I calculate this afterwards. However, because of how the ratings are calculated, the quality of opponents does influence the ratings.
The offense and defense columns refer to each team’s point scoring tendencies instead of the efficiency ratings that some other rating systems use. The overall rating is approximately the sum of a team’s offense and defense ratings. To predict the score of a game for the home team, take the home team’s offense rating, add half of the home advantage, subtract the visiting team’s defense rating, and add the mean score. Predicting the score is similar for the visiting team. Take the visiting team’s offense rating, subtract half of the home advantage, subtract the home team’s defense rating, and add the mean score. Predicting the margin of victory for a game is done by taking the home team’s rating, adding the home advantage, and subtracting the away team’s rating. For neutral site games, the home advantage is set to zero.
Predictive Ratings
Home advantage: 2.00 points
Mean score: 22.44 points
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
1 13.33 -0.50 Los Angeles Rams 7.68 5.66
2 12.50 -0.61 Seattle Seahawks 6.30 6.23
3 9.50 +0.32 Houston Texans 0.90 8.62
4 6.89 +0.13 Indianapolis Colts 5.75 1.19
5 6.49 +0.15 Jacksonville Jaguars 4.25 2.28
6 +1 5.76 +0.30 Detroit Lions 6.85 -1.09
7 -1 5.21 -0.31 Kansas City Chiefs 0.30 4.96
8 +1 4.68 +0.15 Buffalo Bills 6.04 -1.33
9 -1 4.32 -0.52 San Francisco 49ers 1.99 2.33
10 3.82 +0.38 Denver Broncos 0.53 3.27
11 +2 3.75 +1.38 Philadelphia Eagles -1.35 5.10
12 -1 3.10 -0.30 Green Bay Packers 0.40 2.66
13 -1 2.81 -0.49 New England Patriots 1.62 1.20
14 +1 0.66 +0.74 Los Angeles Chargers -0.39 1.03
15 +1 0.45 +1.15 Baltimore Ravens 0.09 0.41
16 +1 -0.12 +0.85 Pittsburgh Steelers 0.05 -0.16
17 +3 -0.12 +1.67 Chicago Bears 1.73 -1.87
18 -4 -0.59 -0.64 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1.09 -1.70
19 +2 -1.14 +1.25 Minnesota Vikings -2.95 1.80
20 -2 -2.04 -0.71 Dallas Cowboys 5.82 -7.85
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
21 -2 -2.31 -0.96 Arizona Cardinals 0.02 -2.32
22 -3.67 -0.49 Carolina Panthers -4.49 0.83
23 -3.76 +0.32 Atlanta Falcons -2.78 -0.97
24 -4.69 -0.44 Miami Dolphins -3.24 -1.44
25 -5.67 -0.38 New York Giants -1.18 -4.47
26 -5.78 +0.87 Washington Commanders -2.45 -3.34
27 -6.68 +0.13 New Orleans Saints -6.58 -0.11
28 -8.11 -0.73 Cincinnati Bengals -0.45 -7.71
29 -8.15 -0.09 Tennessee Titans -4.55 -3.62
30 +1 -9.56 -0.60 New York Jets -4.29 -5.29
31 -1 -9.63 -1.19 Cleveland Browns -8.01 -1.59
32 -11.36 -0.95 Las Vegas Raiders -8.70 -2.63 Schedule Strength
The first column is the expected losing percentage (1 minus winning percentage) for a hypothetical average NFL team in each team’s games played to date. Larger numbers mean a tougher schedule. The second column is the same thing, just for future games instead of past games.
The third column is the average opponent rating, with an adjustment for the site of games, for previously played games. The fourth column is the average opponent rating for the future games that each team will play. These two columns are the same schedule strength metrics from my previous NFL articles.
In college football, the two approaches to schedule strength would differ more just because the approach used in the first two columns limits the influence of truly lopsided blowout games. In the NFL, there just aren’t that many blowouts, and the teams are more evenly balanced. Therefore, there’s just not too much of a difference in the two approaches to measuring schedule strength.
Schedule Strength for an Average Team
Home advantage: 2.00 points
Mean score: 22.44 points
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
1 Los Angeles Rams .566 (4) .560 (10) 2.33 (4) 2.81 (8)
2 Seattle Seahawks .514 (14) .644 (3) 0.69 (12) 5.33 (3)
3 Houston Texans .584 (3) .461 (21) 3.21 (3) -1.94 (23)
4 Indianapolis Colts .521 (10) .668 (1) 0.93 (10) 6.10 (1)
5 Jacksonville Jaguars .528 (8) .547 (11) 1.05 (8) 1.52 (11)
6 Detroit Lions .488 (20) .506 (19) -0.30 (20) 0.21 (19)
7 Kansas City Chiefs .531 (7) .374 (28) 0.99 (9) -4.56 (28)
8 Buffalo Bills .457 (26) .344 (29) -1.50 (26) -5.81 (30)
9 San Francisco 49ers .522 (9) .655 (2) 1.17 (7) 5.75 (2)
10 Denver Broncos .437 (30) .599 (6) -2.35 (30) 3.45 (6)
11 Philadelphia Eagles .509 (15) .454 (22) 0.23 (15) -1.63 (21)
12 Green Bay Packers .461 (24) .512 (16) -1.39 (24) 0.40 (17)
13 New England Patriots .370 (32) .389 (27) -4.76 (32) -3.93 (27)
14 Los Angeles Chargers .461 (25) .626 (4) -1.49 (25) 4.43 (4)
15 Baltimore Ravens .469 (23) .576 (8) -1.19 (23) 2.60 (9)
16 Pittsburgh Steelers .474 (21) .486 (20) -1.02 (22) -0.47 (20)
17 Chicago Bears .432 (31) .608 (5) -2.47 (31) 3.73 (5)
18 Tampa Bay Buccaneers .540 (5) .402 (26) 1.71 (5) -3.34 (26)
19 Minnesota Vikings .499 (17) .512 (17) 0.04 (17) 0.40 (18)
20 Dallas Cowboys .472 (22) .414 (25) -1.02 (21) -2.93 (25)
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
21 Arizona Cardinals .598 (2) .510 (18) 3.70 (2) 1.16 (12)
22 Carolina Panthers .497 (18) .583 (7) -0.05 (18) 3.10 (7)
23 Atlanta Falcons .496 (19) .517 (15) -0.08 (19) 0.78 (16)
24 Miami Dolphins .444 (29) .430 (24) -2.04 (29) -2.63 (24)
25 New York Giants .535 (6) .344 (30) 1.20 (6) -5.51 (29)
26 Washington Commanders .503 (16) .533 (12) 0.04 (16) 1.15 (13)
27 New Orleans Saints .517 (13) .322 (32) 0.90 (11) -6.49 (32)
28 Cincinnati Bengals .517 (12) .329 (31) 0.49 (14) -6.21 (31)
29 Tennessee Titans .605 (1) .530 (13) 3.82 (1) 1.01 (14)
30 New York Jets .454 (27) .526 (14) -1.65 (27) 0.94 (15)
31 Cleveland Browns .450 (28) .447 (23) -1.88 (28) -1.85 (22)
32 Las Vegas Raiders .520 (11) .561 (9) 0.60 (13) 2.35 (10) NFL Season Simulations
This season simulation is based on games and computer ratings through December 1, 2025. The season was simulated 20,000 times, and the results of the simulations have been aggregated to predict final records and playoff chances. Tiebreakers for making the postseason are simplified, and the simulations don’t factor in potential issues like injuries, but this is still useful for making an educated guess about the standings at the end of the regular season.
Projected Standings
First up is the projected won-loss records, points scored, and points allowed for each team. The rating column is the team’s overall rating, included as a measure of team strength.
AFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
New England Patriots 13.01 3.98 0.01 .766 459.61 333.60 2.81
Buffalo Bills 12.24 4.75 0.01 .720 499.33 381.30 4.68
Miami Dolphins 7.33 9.65 0.01 .432 362.95 397.15 -4.69
New York Jets 3.73 13.26 0.01 .220 330.32 482.53 -9.56
AFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Pittsburgh Steelers 9.53 7.46 0.01 .561 404.86 394.02 -0.12
Baltimore Ravens 8.32 8.67 0.01 .490 398.06 389.45 0.45
Cincinnati Bengals 5.35 11.64 0.01 .315 386.56 514.97 -8.11
Cleveland Browns 3.90 13.09 0.01 .229 279.96 408.89 -9.63
AFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Jacksonville Jaguars 11.83 5.16 0.01 .696 454.43 355.66 6.49
Houston Texans 11.24 5.75 0.01 .661 394.66 268.15 9.50
Indianapolis Colts 9.56 7.43 0.01 .563 464.55 372.96 6.89
Tennessee Titans 2.86 14.13 0.01 .168 273.60 469.26 -8.15
AFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Denver Broncos 13.52 3.47 0.01 .796 403.97 322.00 3.82
Los Angeles Chargers 11.19 5.80 0.02 .659 376.67 356.64 0.66
Kansas City Chiefs 8.21 8.78 0.01 .483 398.34 310.37 5.21
Las Vegas Raiders 2.62 14.37 0.01 .154 232.62 437.35 -11.36
NFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Philadelphia Eagles 10.89 6.10 0.01 .641 390.25 325.92 3.75
Dallas Cowboys 7.57 8.41 1.01 .475 497.58 507.73 -2.04
New York Giants 3.48 13.51 0.01 .205 373.32 470.00 -5.67
Washington Commanders 4.97 12.02 0.01 .293 350.39 454.39 -5.78
NFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Green Bay Packers 10.71 5.27 1.01 .660 415.54 340.56 3.10
Chicago Bears 11.18 5.81 0.01 .658 434.73 419.18 -0.12
Detroit Lions 9.94 7.05 0.01 .585 515.11 415.61 5.76
Minnesota Vikings 7.36 9.62 0.01 .433 351.63 374.27 -1.14
NFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8.72 8.27 0.01 .513 396.62 415.52 -0.59
Carolina Panthers 7.99 8.99 0.01 .471 316.86 389.32 -3.67
Atlanta Falcons 6.19 10.79 0.01 .365 338.29 411.61 -3.76
New Orleans Saints 5.48 11.50 0.01 .323 283.05 389.31 -6.68
NFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Los Angeles Rams 13.19 3.80 0.01 .776 506.52 316.79 13.33
Seattle Seahawks 13.04 3.95 0.01 .767 481.61 297.44 12.50
San Francisco 49ers 11.36 5.62 0.01 .669 412.72 366.32 4.32
Arizona Cardinals 4.29 12.69 0.01 .253 371.45 467.89 -2.31 Playoff Chances
The next table shows each team’s chances of making the playoffs, winning their division, and having the best record in the conference. The mean playoff seed is an average that uses only the seasons when each team made the playoffs. Div% and Conf% are the probabilities of a team having the best record in their division and conference, respectively.
AFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
New England Patriots 2.81 .766 99.80% 60.52% 32.90% 3.04
Buffalo Bills 4.68 .720 98.95% 39.48% 8.61% 4.16
Miami Dolphins -4.69 .432 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
New York Jets -9.56 .220 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
AFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Pittsburgh Steelers -0.12 .561 75.53% 75.48% 0.00% 3.98
Baltimore Ravens 0.45 .490 24.52% 24.52% 0.00% 4.00
Cincinnati Bengals -8.11 .315 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
Cleveland Browns -9.63 .229 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
AFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Jacksonville Jaguars 6.49 .696 98.78% 63.74% 10.73% 3.69
Houston Texans 9.50 .661 90.38% 33.38% 0.32% 4.95
Indianapolis Colts 6.89 .563 26.65% 2.88% 0.00% 6.32
Tennessee Titans -8.15 .168 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
AFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Denver Broncos 3.82 .796 100.00% 89.78% 44.86% 2.05
Los Angeles Chargers 0.66 .659 85.41% 10.22% 2.58% 5.87
Kansas City Chiefs 5.21 .483 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
Las Vegas Raiders -11.36 .154 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
NFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Philadelphia Eagles 3.75 .641 99.45% 99.45% 0.06% 2.85
Dallas Cowboys -2.04 .475 0.55% 0.55% 0.00% 3.17
New York Giants -5.67 .205 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
Washington Commanders -5.78 .293 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
NFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Green Bay Packers 3.10 .660 88.89% 50.68% 0.18% 4.10
Chicago Bears -0.12 .658 75.89% 41.66% 2.44% 4.13
Detroit Lions 5.76 .585 38.99% 7.66% 0.00% 6.07
Minnesota Vikings -1.14 .433 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
NFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -0.59 .513 69.12% 69.12% 0.00% 3.99
Carolina Panthers -3.67 .471 30.89% 30.89% 0.00% 3.96
Atlanta Falcons -3.76 .365 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
New Orleans Saints -6.68 .323 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
NFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Los Angeles Rams 13.33 .776 99.95% 51.84% 50.63% 2.96
Seattle Seahawks 12.50 .767 99.80% 46.86% 45.40% 3.32
San Francisco 49ers 4.32 .669 96.49% 1.31% 1.28% 5.96
Arizona Cardinals -2.31 .253 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--Possible Regular Season Outcomes
To give a range of how good or bad a team’s final record might be, several percentiles are shown for each team’s final winning percentage.
AFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
New England Patriots .766 100.00% .706 .765 .765 .824 .824
Buffalo Bills .720 100.00% .647 .706 .706 .765 .765
Miami Dolphins .432 7.17% .353 .412 .412 .471 .471
New York Jets .220 0.00% .176 .176 .235 .235 .294
AFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Pittsburgh Steelers .561 90.18% .529 .529 .588 .588 .647
Baltimore Ravens .490 41.02% .412 .471 .471 .529 .529
Cincinnati Bengals .315 0.00% .235 .294 .294 .353 .353
Cleveland Browns .229 0.00% .176 .176 .235 .235 .294
AFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Jacksonville Jaguars .696 100.00% .647 .647 .706 .706 .765
Houston Texans .661 100.00% .588 .647 .647 .706 .706
Indianapolis Colts .563 89.74% .497 .529 .588 .588 .647
Tennessee Titans .168 0.00% .118 .118 .176 .176 .235
AFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Denver Broncos .796 100.00% .706 .765 .824 .824 .882
Los Angeles Chargers .659 100.00% .588 .647 .647 .706 .706
Kansas City Chiefs .483 38.21% .412 .471 .471 .529 .529
Las Vegas Raiders .154 0.00% .118 .118 .176 .176 .176
NFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Philadelphia Eagles .641 100.00% .588 .588 .647 .647 .706
Dallas Cowboys .475 14.88% .382 .441 .500 .500 .559
New York Giants .205 0.00% .118 .176 .176 .235 .294
Washington Commanders .293 0.00% .235 .235 .294 .294 .353
NFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Green Bay Packers .660 100.00% .618 .618 .676 .676 .735
Chicago Bears .658 100.00% .588 .647 .647 .706 .706
Detroit Lions .585 95.61% .529 .529 .588 .647 .647
Minnesota Vikings .433 8.80% .353 .412 .412 .471 .471
NFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .513 61.06% .471 .471 .529 .529 .588
Carolina Panthers .471 25.34% .412 .412 .471 .529 .529
Atlanta Falcons .365 0.00% .294 .353 .353 .412 .412
New Orleans Saints .323 0.00% .235 .294 .294 .353 .412
NFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Los Angeles Rams .776 100.00% .706 .765 .765 .824 .824
Seattle Seahawks .767 100.00% .706 .765 .765 .824 .824
San Francisco 49ers .669 100.00% .588 .647 .647 .706 .706
Arizona Cardinals .253 0.00% .176 .235 .235 .294 .294Postseason Projections
The final table shows each team’s probability of reaching the playoffs, the divisional round, the conference championship, winning their conference, and winning the Super Bowl.
AFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
New England Patriots .766 99.80% 65.53% 30.31% 12.57% 3.79%
Buffalo Bills .720 98.95% 55.67% 27.96% 13.51% 4.64%
Miami Dolphins .432 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
New York Jets .220 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Pittsburgh Steelers .561 75.53% 32.52% 10.64% 3.82% 0.90%
Baltimore Ravens .490 24.52% 11.07% 3.70% 1.43% 0.40%
Cincinnati Bengals .315 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cleveland Browns .229 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Jacksonville Jaguars .696 98.78% 59.34% 34.23% 18.83% 7.22%
Houston Texans .661 90.38% 57.16% 35.73% 23.90% 11.24%
Indianapolis Colts .563 26.65% 13.63% 7.53% 4.66% 1.93%
Tennessee Titans .168 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Denver Broncos .796 100.00% 73.14% 38.00% 16.53% 5.30%
Los Angeles Chargers .659 85.41% 31.94% 11.91% 4.75% 1.14%
Kansas City Chiefs .483 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Las Vegas Raiders .154 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Philadelphia Eagles .641 99.45% 52.08% 23.57% 7.27% 3.28%
Dallas Cowboys .475 0.55% 0.18% 0.03% 0.01% 0.01%
New York Giants .205 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Washington Commanders .293 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Green Bay Packers .660 88.89% 46.52% 17.61% 5.50% 2.54%
Chicago Bears .658 75.89% 31.61% 9.68% 2.28% 0.79%
Detroit Lions .585 38.99% 20.72% 6.82% 2.83% 1.44%
Minnesota Vikings .433 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .513 69.12% 17.04% 5.15% 1.35% 0.51%
Carolina Panthers .471 30.89% 6.14% 1.44% 0.34% 0.10%
Atlanta Falcons .365 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
New Orleans Saints .323 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Los Angeles Rams .776 99.95% 90.18% 62.79% 40.45% 28.46%
Seattle Seahawks .767 99.80% 86.58% 58.30% 34.29% 23.54%
San Francisco 49ers .669 96.49% 48.96% 14.62% 5.68% 2.76%
Arizona Cardinals .253 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Week 16 Game Predictions
The thresholds for close games, blowouts, and high and low scoring games are different in the NFL than in college football. That’s because NFL teams are balanced enough in talent to usually avoid truly lopsided scores and there’s just less scoring overall.
Games are ranked based on the projected quality. This factors in the overall strength of the two teams and the potential for a competitive game. Game quality ratings are not directly comparable between college football and the NFL for many of the same reasons I just mentioned. This is just for predicting which NFL games are most and least compelling each weekend.
Beside each team, there are two numbers in parentheses. One is the predicted margin of victory (positive) or defeat (negative), the other is the probability of winning. In the event that a margin is larger than what’s indicated by the predicted score, that’s because there’s nothing in the math that prevents a forecast of negative points with a sufficiently lopsided matchup. This isn’t even close to possible with the current NFL ratings, even with the weakest offense against the strongest defense, but it does occur once in awhile in college football. A negative score is impossible, of course, so the score would be set to zero in those instances. However, there’s no upper limit on how many points a team can be projected to score. But with more parity between NFL teams, even the highest scoring predictions aren’t going to be nearly as crazy as what is possible with the college football ratings.
#1: Los Angeles Rams (-1.17, 46.29%) at Seattle Seahawks (1.17, 53.25%), Tie (0.46%)
Estimated score: 22.89 - 24.07, Total: 46.96
Quality: 98.49%, Team quality: 97.91%, Competitiveness: 99.65%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.11%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.66%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 26.69%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 16.82%
#2: Jacksonville Jaguars (0.67, 51.75%) at Denver Broncos (-0.67, 47.79%), Tie (0.46%)
Estimated score: 22.42 - 21.70, Total: 44.11
Quality: 85.60%, Team quality: 79.24%, Competitiveness: 99.89%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.00%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.71%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 20.66%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 22.21%
#3: San Francisco 49ers (-4.57, 36.43%) at Indianapolis Colts (4.57, 63.13%), Tie (0.43%)
Estimated score: 22.23 - 26.86, Total: 49.09
Quality: 84.07%, Team quality: 79.15%, Competitiveness: 94.82%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 23.49%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 16.71%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 31.71%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 13.40%
#4: New England Patriots (0.36, 50.83%) at Baltimore Ravens (-0.36, 48.71%), Tie (0.46%)
Estimated score: 22.64 - 22.33, Total: 44.97
Quality: 71.27%, Team quality: 60.18%, Competitiveness: 99.97%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 20.96%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.73%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 22.38%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 20.49%
#5: Green Bay Packers (1.22, 53.41%) at Chicago Bears (-1.22, 46.13%), Tie (0.46%)
Estimated score: 23.71 - 22.50, Total: 46.21
Quality: 70.39%, Team quality: 59.17%, Competitiveness: 99.62%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.13%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.66%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 25.01%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 18.16%
#6: Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.88, 27.65%) at Detroit Lions (7.88, 71.97%), Tie (0.39%)
Estimated score: 22.58 - 30.44, Total: 53.02
Quality: 68.03%, Team quality: 60.72%, Competitiveness: 85.38%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 28.35%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 14.85%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 41.87%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 8.41%
#7: Los Angeles Chargers (0.70, 51.85%) at Dallas Cowboys (-0.70, 47.69%), Tie (0.46%)
Estimated score: 28.89 - 28.23, Total: 57.12
Quality: 59.26%, Team quality: 45.64%, Competitiveness: 99.88%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.00%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.71%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 53.07%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 4.84%
#8: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1.08, 52.98%) at Carolina Panthers (-1.08, 46.56%), Tie (0.46%)
Estimated score: 21.69 - 20.65, Total: 42.34
Quality: 51.23%, Team quality: 36.72%, Competitiveness: 99.71%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.09%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.68%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 17.35%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 26.01%
#9: Philadelphia Eagles (7.53, 71.09%) at Washington Commanders (-7.53, 28.52%), Tie (0.39%)
Estimated score: 23.43 - 15.89, Total: 39.32
Quality: 50.66%, Team quality: 38.75%, Competitiveness: 86.56%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 27.73%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 15.08%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 12.54%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 33.18%
#10: Atlanta Falcons (-3.45, 39.61%) at Arizona Cardinals (3.45, 59.94%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 20.97 - 24.43, Total: 45.41
Quality: 45.09%, Team quality: 30.74%, Competitiveness: 97.01%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 22.41%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.14%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 23.29%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 19.65%
#11: Minnesota Vikings (2.53, 57.27%) at New York Giants (-2.53, 42.28%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 22.95 - 20.46, Total: 43.41
Quality: 43.65%, Team quality: 29.07%, Competitiveness: 98.38%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.73%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.41%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 19.30%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 23.68%
#12: Kansas City Chiefs (11.36, 79.91%) at Tennessee Titans (-11.36, 19.77%), Tie (0.32%)
Estimated score: 25.35 - 13.93, Total: 39.28
Quality: 41.14%, Team quality: 31.07%, Competitiveness: 72.12%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 35.69%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 12.30%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 12.48%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 33.27%
#13: Buffalo Bills (12.31, 81.82%) at Cleveland Browns (-12.31, 17.88%), Tie (0.30%)
Estimated score: 29.06 - 16.76, Total: 45.82
Quality: 34.81%, Team quality: 24.88%, Competitiveness: 68.13%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 38.03%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 11.55%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 24.18%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 18.86%
#14: Cincinnati Bengals (-5.43, 34.06%) at Miami Dolphins (5.43, 65.52%), Tie (0.42%)
Estimated score: 22.42 - 27.90, Total: 50.33
Quality: 26.88%, Team quality: 14.47%, Competitiveness: 92.78%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 24.52%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 16.30%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 34.80%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 11.65%
#15: New York Jets (-4.88, 35.55%) at New Orleans Saints (4.88, 64.01%), Tie (0.43%)
Estimated score: 17.25 - 22.15, Total: 39.40
Quality: 20.20%, Team quality: 9.36%, Competitiveness: 94.11%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 23.85%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 16.56%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 12.66%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 32.97%
#16: Las Vegas Raiders (-22.86, 4.67%) at Houston Texans (22.86, 95.22%), Tie (0.11%)
Estimated score: 4.12 - 26.96, Total: 31.08
Quality: 18.71%, Team quality: 15.51%, Competitiveness: 27.25%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 67.16%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 4.21%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 4.31%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 55.26%Thanks for reading!
This article uses ratings based on data obtained from Pro Football Reference.