Week 14 NFL Computer Ratings and Game Predictions
Are the Carolina Panthers really a legitimate postseason contender?
The Carolina Panthers aren’t playing this week, so their stadium will look a bit like the photo above. But the NFC South just got a lot more interesting. In my article last week, I mused about the possibility of the Panthers defeating the Rams. It was a matchup between contenders in their respective divisions, but it also appeared to be very lopsided in favor of the Rams. However, the Panthers won and are now within a half game of the Buccaneers. It’s rather unexpected since the Panthers were easily last in my preseason ratings, but they’ve managed to climb into contention to win the NFC South.
The NFC South feels a bit like the 1994 American League West division, where all four teams finished the season under .500. The Texas Rangers were in first place when the season-ending strike occurred, but they were also 52-62. The Montreal Expos looked like the favorite to win the National League, the Chicago White Sox appeared likely to win their division for the second straight season, and the AL West was a five alarm dumpster fire. That was the first season with three divisions per league, and the San Francisco Giants had missed a playoff spot by one game in the prior season despite a 103-59 record. The Atlanta Braves were dominant during the regular season and won the NL West in 1993 with a record of 104-58 before underperforming in the playoffs as was typical for many Braves teams from that era. In the new format that introduced a wild card spot to each league, the Giants wouldn’t have been shut out of the playoffs. That said, the 1994 AL West was almost as interesting as the 1993 NL West, but in a bad way. Could the Rangers really make the playoffs in the new format despite perhaps being expected to finish the season with a record somewhere around 75-87?
The NFC South isn’t quite as weak as the 1994 AL West, but all four teams currently have negative point differentials. The Buccaneers have played a tough schedule, and their point differential would probably be slightly positive against a neutral schedule. So the NFC South isn’t quite like the 1994 AL West, but it’s a very weak division. With the possible exception of the AFC North, the Panthers would probably be well outside of a playoff spot in any other division. Their predictive rating is 3.38 points lower than that of the Arizona Cardinals, who currently have a 3-9 record. But because the Panthers play in the NFC South, they have a very real chance to reach the playoffs whereas the Cardinals have already been eliminated from the playoffs.
By the numbers, the Buccaneers are still clearly favored to win the NFC South, and this makes sense. The Buccaneers have a better predictive rating and play the second weakest remaining schedule in the NFL, while the Panthers have the ninth most difficult remaining schedule. But the Panthers and Buccaneers haven’t played yet this season, so the Panthers will have an opportunity to directly take control of the division from the Buccaneers. In 20,000 simulations of the remainder of the season, the Buccaneers won the division 81.83% of the time while the Panthers won the NFC South in just 18.11% of the simulations. This makes sense since the Buccaneers have a half game advantage on the Panthers right now and play an easier schedule going forward. But the NFC South is an unexpectedly entertaining division, though perhaps uncomfortably similar to the 1994 AL West.
I still expect the Buccaneers to win the NFC South, but this is a race to watch over the final five weeks of the regular season. Anyway, it’s time to stop writing about bad baseball, and I’ll get to the ratings and the game predictions for this week.
Predictive Ratings
These are forward looking ratings, meaning that they’re intended to evaluate how good a team is and predict its future success, but they don’t evaluate the quality of a team’s achievements earlier in the season. These ratings are based purely on points. They don’t factor in wins and losses, only the margin of victory. The ratings don’t explicitly calculate the strength of schedule, though I calculate this afterwards. However, because of how the ratings are calculated, the quality of opponents does influence the ratings.
The offense and defense columns refer to each team’s point scoring tendencies instead of the efficiency ratings that some other rating systems use. The overall rating is approximately the sum of a team’s offense and defense ratings. To predict the score of a game for the home team, take the home team’s offense rating, add half of the home advantage, subtract the visiting team’s defense rating, and add the mean score. Predicting the score is similar for the visiting team. Take the visiting team’s offense rating, subtract half of the home advantage, subtract the home team’s defense rating, and add the mean score. Predicting the margin of victory for a game is done by taking the home team’s rating, adding the home advantage, and subtracting the away team’s rating. For neutral site games, the home advantage is set to zero.
Predictive Ratings
Home advantage: 2.02 points
Mean score: 22.31 points
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
1 12.64 -1.44 Los Angeles Rams 6.28 6.33
2 11.69 +0.92 Seattle Seahawks 7.31 4.40
3 +2 8.36 +0.81 Houston Texans -0.03 8.34
4 -1 7.85 -0.97 Indianapolis Colts 7.50 0.32
5 -1 6.65 -1.31 Kansas City Chiefs 1.56 5.13
6 +3 5.53 +1.60 Buffalo Bills 5.50 0.03
7 -1 5.28 -1.14 Detroit Lions 5.60 -0.33
8 +2 4.87 +1.33 San Francisco 49ers 2.18 2.70
9 +2 4.85 +1.48 Jacksonville Jaguars 2.99 1.83
10 -2 4.04 -0.75 Denver Broncos -0.20 4.25
11 +1 3.41 +0.83 Green Bay Packers -0.10 3.52
12 +1 3.33 +0.81 New England Patriots 1.81 1.58
13 -6 2.99 -2.24 Philadelphia Eagles -1.29 4.28
14 +1 1.07 -0.03 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2.12 -1.04
15 +4 -0.28 +1.18 Arizona Cardinals -0.10 -0.17
16 +1 -0.28 +0.86 Dallas Cowboys 6.58 -6.84
17 -3 -0.37 -2.56 Baltimore Ravens 1.08 -1.45
18 -2 -0.83 -0.02 Los Angeles Chargers -0.68 -0.15
19 +2 -1.92 +1.02 Chicago Bears 1.18 -3.07
20 -2 -2.06 -0.85 Pittsburgh Steelers -0.95 -1.09
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
21 -1 -2.71 -0.10 Atlanta Falcons -2.56 -0.12
22 +2 -3.10 +1.93 Carolina Panthers -3.63 0.52
23 +2 -4.71 +0.37 Washington Commanders -1.18 -3.49
24 -2 -4.81 -1.24 Minnesota Vikings -4.56 -0.21
25 -2 -5.00 -0.74 New York Giants -0.56 -4.46
26 -5.07 +0.15 Miami Dolphins -3.22 -1.86
27 +2 -7.29 +0.61 New York Jets -3.59 -3.69
28 +2 -7.68 +0.73 New Orleans Saints -7.05 -0.61
29 -2 -8.56 -1.54 Cleveland Browns -7.96 -0.60
30 +2 -8.60 +1.72 Cincinnati Bengals 0.39 -8.97
31 -3 -8.75 -0.95 Tennessee Titans -6.21 -2.57
32 -1 -10.60 -0.51 Las Vegas Raiders -8.12 -2.49 Schedule Strength
The first column is the expected losing percentage (1 minus winning percentage) for a hypothetical average NFL team in each team’s games played to date. Larger numbers mean a tougher schedule. The second column is the same thing, just for future games instead of past games.
The third column is the average opponent rating, with an adjustment for the site of games, for previously played games. The fourth column is the average opponent rating for the future games that each team will play. These two columns are the same schedule strength metrics from my previous NFL articles.
In college football, the two approaches to schedule strength would differ more just because the approach used in the first two columns limits the influence of truly lopsided blowout games. In the NFL, there just aren’t that many blowouts, and the teams are more evenly balanced. Therefore, there’s just not too much of a difference in the two approaches to measuring schedule strength.
Schedule Strength for an Average Team
Home advantage: 2.02 points
Mean score: 22.31 points
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
1 Los Angeles Rams .563 (5) .580 (7) 2.22 (6) 3.15 (5)
2 Seattle Seahawks .504 (14) .618 (4) 0.27 (14) 4.31 (4)
3 Houston Texans .586 (3) .510 (15) 3.29 (3) 0.15 (16)
4 Indianapolis Colts .472 (21) .696 (1) -0.95 (20) 7.33 (1)
5 Kansas City Chiefs .524 (11) .446 (24) 0.73 (12) -1.96 (24)
6 Buffalo Bills .466 (23) .392 (30) -1.16 (23) -4.03 (30)
7 Detroit Lions .462 (24) .519 (11) -1.37 (24) 1.12 (11)
8 San Francisco 49ers .554 (6) .532 (10) 2.28 (5) 1.20 (10)
9 Jacksonville Jaguars .545 (8) .513 (14) 1.70 (9) 0.33 (14)
10 Denver Broncos .456 (26) .509 (16) -1.68 (26) 0.29 (15)
11 Green Bay Packers .445 (29) .482 (19) -1.99 (29) -0.59 (18)
12 New England Patriots .363 (32) .450 (23) -4.99 (32) -1.80 (23)
13 Philadelphia Eagles .535 (10) .431 (27) 1.32 (10) -2.66 (27)
14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers .587 (2) .367 (31) 3.40 (2) -4.74 (31)
15 Arizona Cardinals .568 (4) .619 (3) 2.54 (4) 4.87 (2)
16 Dallas Cowboys .471 (22) .453 (22) -1.07 (21) -1.61 (22)
17 Baltimore Ravens .477 (19) .478 (20) -0.87 (19) -0.79 (20)
18 Los Angeles Chargers .427 (30) .634 (2) -2.69 (30) 4.76 (3)
19 Chicago Bears .415 (31) .541 (8) -3.05 (31) 1.28 (9)
20 Pittsburgh Steelers .472 (20) .460 (21) -1.07 (22) -1.41 (21)
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
21 Atlanta Falcons .477 (18) .585 (5) -0.76 (18) 3.08 (6)
22 Carolina Panthers .523 (12) .541 (9) 0.82 (11) 1.53 (8)
23 Washington Commanders .513 (13) .487 (17) 0.39 (13) -0.42 (17)
24 Minnesota Vikings .498 (16) .482 (18) 0.04 (16) -0.66 (19)
25 New York Giants .553 (7) .328 (32) 1.86 (7) -6.11 (32)
26 Miami Dolphins .460 (25) .438 (26) -1.42 (25) -2.31 (26)
27 New York Jets .452 (27) .517 (12) -1.74 (27) 0.60 (12)
28 New Orleans Saints .541 (9) .396 (29) 1.75 (8) -3.75 (29)
29 Cleveland Browns .450 (28) .403 (28) -1.86 (28) -3.57 (28)
30 Cincinnati Bengals .487 (17) .441 (25) -0.51 (17) -2.16 (25)
31 Tennessee Titans .622 (1) .515 (13) 4.43 (1) 0.43 (13)
32 Las Vegas Raiders .503 (15) .583 (6) 0.07 (15) 3.00 (7) Simulating the Rest of the Season
These results are based on games and computer ratings through December 1, 2025. The season was simulated 20,000 times, and the results of the simulations have been aggregated to predict final records and playoff chances. Tiebreakers for making the postseason are simplified, and the simulations don’t factor in potential issues like injuries, but this is still useful for making an educated guess about the standings at the end of the regular season.
Projected Standings
First up is the projected won-loss records, points scored, and points allowed for each team. The rating column is the team’s overall rating, included as a measure of team strength.
AFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
New England Patriots 13.52 3.46 0.02 .796 454.46 324.24 3.33
Buffalo Bills 11.63 5.35 0.02 .684 484.45 359.64 5.53
Miami Dolphins 7.12 9.86 0.02 .420 354.91 407.91 -5.07
New York Jets 4.54 12.45 0.02 .267 338.58 446.19 -7.29
AFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Baltimore Ravens 8.56 8.42 0.02 .504 411.37 412.84 -0.37
Pittsburgh Steelers 8.41 8.57 0.02 .495 392.73 404.19 -2.06
Cincinnati Bengals 5.71 11.27 0.02 .337 398.99 524.35 -8.60
Cleveland Browns 4.84 12.14 0.02 .285 283.46 384.04 -8.56
AFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Jacksonville Jaguars 10.99 5.99 0.02 .647 421.02 360.22 4.85
Houston Texans 10.42 6.56 0.02 .613 373.21 270.45 8.36
Indianapolis Colts 10.56 6.42 0.02 .622 486.26 375.65 7.85
Tennessee Titans 2.42 14.56 0.02 .143 243.23 445.39 -8.75
AFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Denver Broncos 12.95 4.02 0.02 .763 388.32 304.49 4.04
Kansas City Chiefs 9.54 7.43 0.02 .562 418.37 304.18 6.65
Los Angeles Chargers 9.76 7.22 0.02 .575 370.35 372.15 -0.83
Las Vegas Raiders 2.96 14.02 0.02 .175 238.68 430.60 -10.60
NFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Philadelphia Eagles 11.18 5.80 0.02 .658 384.06 336.16 2.99
Dallas Cowboys 8.67 7.31 1.02 .540 503.06 487.34 -0.28
Washington Commanders 4.92 12.06 0.02 .290 369.97 452.03 -4.71
New York Giants 4.12 12.86 0.02 .243 381.24 464.90 -5.00
NFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Green Bay Packers 11.01 4.97 1.02 .678 407.68 320.52 3.41
Chicago Bears 11.07 5.91 0.02 .652 423.03 432.75 -1.92
Detroit Lions 10.04 6.94 0.02 .591 493.55 396.95 5.28
Minnesota Vikings 5.94 11.04 0.02 .350 325.95 403.23 -4.81
NFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10.24 6.73 0.02 .603 403.66 397.48 1.07
Carolina Panthers 8.52 8.46 0.02 .502 320.46 389.15 -3.10
Atlanta Falcons 5.78 11.20 0.02 .340 334.68 396.18 -2.71
New Orleans Saints 3.98 12.99 0.03 .235 265.65 397.41 -7.68
NFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Los Angeles Rams 12.64 4.34 0.02 .744 472.66 301.87 12.64
Seattle Seahawks 12.44 4.55 0.02 .732 487.64 317.78 11.69
San Francisco 49ers 11.31 5.68 0.01 .665 407.74 355.91 4.87
Arizona Cardinals 4.88 12.10 0.02 .288 364.00 427.23 -0.28 Playoff Chances
The next table shows each team’s chances of making the playoffs, winning their division, and having the best record in the conference. The mean playoff seed is an average that uses only the seasons when each team made the playoffs. Div% and Conf% are the probabilities of a team having the best record in their division and conference, respectively.
AFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
New England Patriots 3.33 .796 99.96% 84.16% 57.38% 1.95
Buffalo Bills 5.53 .684 94.22% 15.84% 7.18% 4.81
Miami Dolphins -5.07 .420 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 6.92
New York Jets -7.29 .267 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
AFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Baltimore Ravens -0.37 .504 53.81% 53.79% 0.00% 3.99
Pittsburgh Steelers -2.06 .495 45.67% 45.41% 0.00% 4.00
Cincinnati Bengals -8.60 .337 0.79% 0.78% 0.00% 4.02
Cleveland Browns -8.56 .285 0.02% 0.02% 0.00% 4.00
AFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Jacksonville Jaguars 4.85 .647 85.89% 39.36% 2.89% 4.52
Houston Texans 8.36 .613 72.69% 29.24% 0.21% 4.90
Indianapolis Colts 7.85 .622 72.17% 31.40% 1.26% 4.72
Tennessee Titans -8.75 .143 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
AFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Denver Broncos 4.04 .763 98.99% 93.66% 30.78% 2.07
Kansas City Chiefs 6.65 .562 39.92% 1.81% 0.00% 6.27
Los Angeles Chargers -0.83 .575 35.73% 4.52% 0.31% 5.88
Las Vegas Raiders -10.60 .175 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
NFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Philadelphia Eagles 2.99 .658 93.81% 91.80% 5.26% 2.90
Dallas Cowboys -0.28 .540 15.88% 8.20% 0.00% 5.03
Washington Commanders -4.71 .290 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 4.00
New York Giants -5.00 .243 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
NFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Green Bay Packers 3.41 .678 88.27% 57.68% 8.67% 3.63
Chicago Bears -1.92 .652 70.05% 33.67% 6.79% 4.37
Detroit Lions 5.28 .591 43.66% 8.64% 0.46% 5.86
Minnesota Vikings -4.81 .350 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 7.00
NFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1.07 .603 82.49% 81.83% 0.32% 3.73
Carolina Panthers -3.10 .502 18.91% 18.11% 0.00% 3.99
Atlanta Falcons -2.71 .340 0.07% 0.07% 0.00% 4.21
New Orleans Saints -7.68 .235 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
NFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Los Angeles Rams 12.64 .744 97.81% 53.29% 40.79% 3.13
Seattle Seahawks 11.69 .732 97.67% 41.34% 33.67% 3.70
San Francisco 49ers 4.87 .665 91.36% 5.38% 4.04% 5.64
Arizona Cardinals -0.28 .288 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--Possible Regular Season Outcomes
To give a range of how good or bad a team’s final record might be, several percentiles are shown for each team’s final winning percentage.
AFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
New England Patriots .796 100.00% .706 .765 .824 .824 .882
Buffalo Bills .684 99.94% .588 .647 .706 .706 .765
Miami Dolphins .420 9.66% .353 .353 .412 .471 .500
New York Jets .267 0.00% .176 .235 .265 .294 .353
AFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Baltimore Ravens .504 52.28% .412 .471 .529 .529 .588
Pittsburgh Steelers .495 46.59% .412 .471 .471 .529 .588
Cincinnati Bengals .337 0.31% .235 .294 .353 .353 .412
Cleveland Browns .285 0.00% .235 .235 .294 .353 .353
AFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Jacksonville Jaguars .647 99.63% .588 .588 .647 .706 .706
Houston Texans .613 97.47% .529 .588 .588 .647 .706
Indianapolis Colts .622 97.66% .529 .588 .647 .647 .706
Tennessee Titans .143 0.00% .059 .118 .118 .176 .235
AFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Denver Broncos .763 100.00% .706 .706 .765 .824 .824
Kansas City Chiefs .562 85.89% .471 .529 .588 .588 .647
Los Angeles Chargers .575 88.87% .471 .529 .588 .588 .647
Las Vegas Raiders .175 0.00% .118 .118 .176 .176 .235
NFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Philadelphia Eagles .658 99.67% .588 .647 .647 .706 .706
Dallas Cowboys .540 57.62% .441 .500 .559 .559 .618
Washington Commanders .290 0.00% .235 .235 .294 .353 .353
New York Giants .243 0.00% .176 .176 .235 .294 .294
NFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Green Bay Packers .678 99.11% .618 .618 .676 .735 .735
Chicago Bears .652 100.00% .588 .588 .647 .706 .706
Detroit Lions .591 93.19% .529 .529 .588 .647 .647
Minnesota Vikings .350 0.86% .294 .294 .353 .412 .412
NFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .603 95.03% .529 .588 .588 .647 .706
Carolina Panthers .502 49.55% .412 .471 .500 .529 .588
Atlanta Falcons .340 0.33% .294 .294 .353 .353 .412
New Orleans Saints .235 0.00% .176 .176 .235 .294 .294
NFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Los Angeles Rams .744 100.00% .647 .706 .765 .765 .824
Seattle Seahawks .732 100.00% .647 .706 .735 .765 .824
San Francisco 49ers .665 100.00% .588 .647 .647 .706 .706
Arizona Cardinals .288 0.00% .235 .235 .294 .324 .353Postseason Projections
The final table shows each team’s probability of reaching the playoffs, the divisional round, the conference championship, winning their conference, and winning the Super Bowl.
AFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
New England Patriots .796 99.96% 79.22% 38.70% 16.16% 5.42%
Buffalo Bills .684 94.22% 55.84% 27.77% 14.45% 5.59%
Miami Dolphins .420 0.12% 0.03% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00%
New York Jets .267 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Baltimore Ravens .504 53.81% 21.83% 6.98% 2.43% 0.66%
Pittsburgh Steelers .495 45.67% 16.57% 4.74% 1.68% 0.39%
Cincinnati Bengals .337 0.79% 0.14% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00%
Cleveland Browns .285 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Jacksonville Jaguars .647 85.89% 43.26% 22.41% 11.38% 4.28%
Houston Texans .613 72.69% 42.99% 25.97% 16.12% 7.86%
Indianapolis Colts .622 72.17% 42.23% 24.94% 14.87% 6.74%
Tennessee Titans .143 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Denver Broncos .763 98.99% 65.34% 33.56% 15.04% 5.34%
Kansas City Chiefs .562 39.92% 20.40% 10.81% 6.30% 2.64%
Los Angeles Chargers .575 35.73% 12.14% 4.08% 1.56% 0.39%
Las Vegas Raiders .175 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Philadelphia Eagles .658 93.81% 48.32% 21.46% 7.24% 3.13%
Dallas Cowboys .540 15.88% 5.72% 1.55% 0.40% 0.14%
Washington Commanders .290 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
New York Giants .243 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Green Bay Packers .678 88.27% 49.21% 21.39% 7.05% 3.23%
Chicago Bears .652 70.05% 27.93% 7.84% 1.86% 0.58%
Detroit Lions .591 43.66% 22.62% 8.83% 3.77% 1.80%
Minnesota Vikings .350 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .603 82.49% 29.71% 10.62% 3.31% 1.43%
Carolina Panthers .502 18.91% 4.89% 1.21% 0.30% 0.08%
Atlanta Falcons .340 0.07% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
New Orleans Saints .235 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Los Angeles Rams .744 97.81% 83.16% 57.30% 37.01% 25.66%
Seattle Seahawks .732 97.67% 79.20% 51.60% 31.78% 21.28%
San Francisco 49ers .665 91.36% 49.21% 18.19% 7.28% 3.33%
Arizona Cardinals .288 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Week 14 Game Predictions
The thresholds for close games, blowouts, and high and low scoring games are different in the NFL than in college football. That’s because NFL teams are balanced enough in talent to usually avoid truly lopsided scores and there’s just less scoring overall.
Games are ranked based on the projected quality. This factors in the overall strength of the two teams and the potential for a competitive game. Game quality ratings are not directly comparable between college football and the NFL for many of the same reasons I just mentioned. This is just for predicting which NFL games are most and least compelling each weekend.
Beside each team, there are two numbers in parentheses. One is the predicted margin of victory (positive) or defeat (negative), the other is the probability of winning. In the event that a margin is larger than what’s indicated by the predicted score, that’s because there’s nothing in the math that prevents a forecast of negative points with a sufficiently lopsided matchup. This isn’t even close to possible with the current NFL ratings, even with the weakest offense against the strongest defense, but it does occur once in awhile in college football. A negative score is impossible, of course, so the score would be set to zero in those instances. However, there’s no upper limit on how many points a team can be projected to score. But with more parity between NFL teams, even the highest scoring predictions aren’t going to be nearly as crazy as what is possible with the college football ratings.
#1: Houston Texans (-0.31, 48.84%) at Kansas City Chiefs (0.31, 50.70%), Tie (0.46%)
Estimated score: 16.14 - 16.54, Total: 32.69
Quality: 92.52%, Team quality: 89.01%, Competitiveness: 99.98%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.47%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.54%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 5.31%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 50.86%
#2: Indianapolis Colts (0.97, 52.64%) at Jacksonville Jaguars (-0.97, 46.90%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 26.97 - 25.99, Total: 52.96
Quality: 89.62%, Team quality: 84.94%, Competitiveness: 99.76%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.57%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.49%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 41.66%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 8.33%
#3: Los Angeles Rams (10.89, 78.68%) at Arizona Cardinals (-10.89, 21.00%), Tie (0.33%)
Estimated score: 27.75 - 16.90, Total: 44.65
Quality: 73.44%, Team quality: 72.95%, Competitiveness: 74.43%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 34.90%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 12.61%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 21.57%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 20.98%
#4: Philadelphia Eagles (1.79, 55.04%) at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.79, 44.51%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 20.15 - 18.37, Total: 38.52
Quality: 68.29%, Team quality: 56.67%, Competitiveness: 99.20%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.85%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.38%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 11.29%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 35.10%
#5: Dallas Cowboys (-7.59, 28.59%) at Detroit Lions (7.59, 71.02%), Tie (0.39%)
Estimated score: 28.21 - 35.77, Total: 63.98
Quality: 67.39%, Team quality: 59.44%, Competitiveness: 86.60%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 28.24%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 14.93%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 70.99%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 1.59%
#6: Seattle Seahawks (12.37, 81.67%) at Atlanta Falcons (-12.37, 18.04%), Tie (0.30%)
Estimated score: 28.73 - 16.37, Total: 45.10
Quality: 63.53%, Team quality: 61.25%, Competitiveness: 68.36%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 38.43%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 11.47%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 22.50%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 20.09%
#7: Chicago Bears (-7.36, 29.17%) at Green Bay Packers (7.36, 70.43%), Tie (0.39%)
Estimated score: 18.96 - 26.29, Total: 45.25
Quality: 59.56%, Team quality: 49.18%, Competitiveness: 87.35%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 27.84%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 15.08%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 22.81%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 19.80%
#8: Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.71, 38.97%) at Baltimore Ravens (3.71, 60.59%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 21.81 - 25.49, Total: 47.30
Quality: 54.40%, Team quality: 40.82%, Competitiveness: 96.61%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 23.12%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 16.88%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 27.32%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 16.09%
#9: Washington Commanders (-1.92, 44.14%) at Minnesota Vikings (1.92, 55.41%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 20.33 - 22.25, Total: 42.58
Quality: 35.92%, Team quality: 21.63%, Competitiveness: 99.08%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.90%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.36%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 17.62%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 25.34%
#10: New Orleans Saints (-10.77, 21.25%) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10.77, 78.42%), Tie (0.33%)
Estimated score: 15.30 - 26.05, Total: 41.35
Quality: 33.27%, Team quality: 22.17%, Competitiveness: 74.91%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 34.63%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 12.70%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 15.50%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 28.15%
#11: Denver Broncos (12.61, 82.13%) at Las Vegas Raiders (-12.61, 17.58%), Tie (0.29%)
Estimated score: 23.60 - 10.95, Total: 34.55
Quality: 30.07%, Team quality: 20.09%, Competitiveness: 67.35%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 39.03%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 11.29%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 6.86%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 45.72%
#12: Cincinnati Bengals (-16.16, 11.77%) at Buffalo Bills (16.16, 88.01%), Tie (0.22%)
Estimated score: 21.66 - 37.80, Total: 59.45
Quality: 29.67%, Team quality: 22.31%, Competitiveness: 52.45%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 48.47%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 8.56%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 59.45%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 3.34%
#13: Miami Dolphins (0.20, 50.35%) at New York Jets (-0.20, 49.19%), Tie (0.46%)
Estimated score: 21.77 - 21.60, Total: 43.36
Quality: 29.01%, Team quality: 15.63%, Competitiveness: 99.99%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.46%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.54%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 19.06%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 23.63%
#14: Tennessee Titans (-2.22, 43.27%) at Cleveland Browns (2.22, 56.28%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 15.69 - 17.93, Total: 33.61
Quality: 18.09%, Team quality: 7.74%, Competitiveness: 98.78%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 22.05%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.30%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 6.04%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 48.30%If the first few paragraphs of this article didn’t make it obvious, I’m looking forward to writing about baseball. I’m still working on the baseball article, but I expect to post that in the next day or two. Thanks for reading!
The ratings in this article are based on data from Pro Football Reference.