Week 10 NFL Computer Ratings and Game Predictions
Predictions for the Rams-49ers game and all the other big NFL games this weekend
My rating system identifies the game of the week this week as the Rams visiting the 49ers, and my choice of the photo for this article. I used a similar photo in a sarcastic manner when the 49ers went to Los Angeles to play the Rams, but this week the Rams play at San Francisco in an important game that will affect the NFC West. The NFC North is a strong division, too, but the NFC West looks like the best division in the NFL, and this game will have a significant implications on who ends up winning that division.
Another intriguing game is the Jaguars at the Texans on Sunday, a matchup that will help to validate whether the Texans deserve their lofty rating despite their 3-5 record, or if the Jaguars are actually better than their point differential suggests. I’m also intrigued by the Ravens playing at the Vikings, which my rating system predicts as a toss-up but will certainly have a big impact on whether the Ravens can actually come back from their poor start to the season to be in playoff contention.
This week’s ratings weight games last season at 4% of those played this season, and preseason games are weighted at 8%. These ratings are now mostly determined by games played in the 2025 regular season, as it should be.
Predictive Ratings
These are forward looking ratings, meaning that they’re intended to evaluate how good a team is and predict its future success, but they don’t evaluate the quality of a team’s achievements earlier in the season. These ratings are based purely on points. They don’t factor in wins and losses, only the margin of victory. The ratings don’t explicitly calculate the strength of schedule, though I calculate this afterwards. However, because of how the ratings are calculated, the quality of opponents does influence the ratings.
The offense and defense columns refer to each team’s point scoring tendencies instead of the efficiency ratings that some other rating systems use. The overall rating is approximately the sum of a team’s offense and defense ratings. To predict the score of a game for the home team, take the home team’s offense rating, add half of the home advantage, subtract the visiting team’s defense rating, and add the mean score. Predicting the score is similar for the visiting team. Take the visiting team’s offense rating, subtract half of the home advantage, subtract the home team’s defense rating, and add the mean score. Predicting the margin of victory for a game is done by taking the home team’s rating, adding the home advantage, and subtracting the away team’s rating. For neutral site games, the home advantage is set to zero.
Predictive Ratings
Home advantage: 2.49 points
Mean score: 22.35 points
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
1 +1 9.87 +0.48 Los Angeles Rams 2.84 7.02
2 +4 9.58 +2.35 Seattle Seahawks 6.14 3.47
3 -2 8.82 -1.02 Indianapolis Colts 7.92 0.93
4 7.43 -0.93 Kansas City Chiefs 1.67 5.73
5 -2 7.20 -2.01 Detroit Lions 5.96 1.23
6 -1 7.18 -0.56 Houston Texans -0.95 8.17
7 5.93 +0.18 Denver Broncos 0.57 5.37
8 +3 4.99 +1.62 Buffalo Bills 5.05 -0.05
9 -1 4.88 -0.72 Philadelphia Eagles 3.36 1.53
10 4.07 -0.14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3.05 1.04
11 -2 2.81 -2.22 Green Bay Packers 0.66 2.14
12 +2 1.76 +1.32 San Francisco 49ers 0.21 1.50
13 1.67 +0.22 New England Patriots 1.15 0.51
14 +1 1.47 +1.46 Baltimore Ravens 3.37 -1.90
15 -3 1.11 -0.68 Los Angeles Chargers 0.34 0.75
16 0.92 +1.55 Arizona Cardinals -1.22 2.14
17 +4 0.12 +1.80 Pittsburgh Steelers 0.66 -0.56
18 +2 -0.50 +1.13 Minnesota Vikings -0.93 0.42
19 -0.99 +0.63 Jacksonville Jaguars -0.67 -0.30
20 +2 -2.54 -0.41 Chicago Bears 0.71 -3.26
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
21 -3 -2.87 -1.30 Dallas Cowboys 4.70 -7.54
22 -5 -3.74 -2.35 Washington Commanders -0.98 -2.73
23 +2 -3.98 +1.55 Atlanta Falcons -5.00 1.03
24 -1 -4.32 -1.86 New York Giants -1.16 -3.17
25 +3 -5.61 +2.39 Carolina Panthers -5.18 -0.39
26 -2 -6.32 -1.83 Miami Dolphins -3.04 -3.27
27 -1 -7.10 +0.05 Cleveland Browns -8.20 1.06
28 -1 -7.14 +0.11 New York Jets -3.70 -3.40
29 +2 -8.44 +0.15 New Orleans Saints -6.36 -2.05
30 -8.54 -0.18 Las Vegas Raiders -6.22 -2.31
31 -2 -8.61 -0.50 Cincinnati Bengals 1.15 -9.78
32 -9.17 -0.29 Tennessee Titans -5.79 -3.38 Schedule Strength
The first column is the expected losing percentage (1 minus winning percentage) for a hypothetical average NFL team in each team’s games played to date. Larger numbers mean a tougher schedule. The second column is the same thing, just for future games instead of past games.
The third column is the average opponent rating, with an adjustment for the site of games, for previously played games. The fourth column is the average opponent rating for the future games that each team will play. These two columns are the same schedule strength metrics from my previous NFL articles.
In college football, the two approaches to schedule strength would differ more just because the approach used in the first two columns limits the influence of truly lopsided blowout games. In the NFL, there just aren’t that many blowouts, and the teams are more evenly balanced. Therefore, there’s just not too much of a difference in the two approaches to measuring schedule strength.
Schedule Strength for an Average Team
Home advantage: 2.49 points
Mean score: 22.35 points
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
1 Los Angeles Rams .523 (10) .583 (3) 0.69 (10) 2.99 (3)
2 Seattle Seahawks .507 (12) .542 (6) 0.11 (13) 1.61 (6)
3 Indianapolis Colts .447 (28) .590 (2) -1.97 (28) 3.40 (2)
4 Kansas City Chiefs .501 (14) .530 (12) -0.05 (14) 1.05 (12)
5 Detroit Lions .489 (17) .516 (16) -0.37 (17) 0.69 (14)
6 Houston Texans .577 (2) .533 (8) 2.82 (2) 1.21 (8)
7 Denver Broncos .477 (24) .472 (25) -0.85 (24) -1.00 (25)
8 Buffalo Bills .410 (31) .475 (23) -3.24 (31) -0.97 (24)
9 Philadelphia Eagles .553 (6) .493 (20) 1.91 (7) -0.31 (20)
10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers .552 (7) .450 (27) 2.00 (5) -1.67 (27)
11 Green Bay Packers .433 (29) .534 (7) -2.46 (30) 1.29 (7)
12 San Francisco 49ers .559 (4) .499 (19) 2.38 (4) -0.03 (19)
13 New England Patriots .355 (32) .421 (30) -5.17 (32) -2.87 (30)
14 Baltimore Ravens .555 (5) .425 (29) 1.97 (6) -2.75 (28)
15 Los Angeles Chargers .459 (26) .548 (5) -1.43 (26) 1.64 (5)
16 Arizona Cardinals .490 (16) .590 (1) -0.39 (18) 3.47 (1)
17 Pittsburgh Steelers .482 (22) .484 (22) -0.68 (22) -0.65 (22)
18 Minnesota Vikings .488 (19) .522 (13) -0.49 (20) 0.88 (13)
19 Jacksonville Jaguars .530 (9) .531 (11) 1.01 (9) 1.09 (10)
20 Chicago Bears .432 (30) .518 (15) -2.38 (29) 0.58 (16)
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
21 Dallas Cowboys .478 (23) .511 (18) -0.70 (23) 0.44 (17)
22 Washington Commanders .505 (13) .532 (10) 0.13 (12) 1.11 (9)
23 Atlanta Falcons .489 (18) .519 (14) -0.46 (19) 0.68 (15)
24 New York Giants .542 (8) .475 (24) 1.49 (8) -0.82 (23)
25 Carolina Panthers .475 (25) .533 (9) -0.94 (25) 1.06 (11)
26 Miami Dolphins .487 (20) .427 (28) -0.36 (16) -2.76 (29)
27 Cleveland Browns .495 (15) .406 (31) -0.27 (15) -3.35 (31)
28 New York Jets .453 (27) .456 (26) -1.66 (27) -1.62 (26)
29 New Orleans Saints .568 (3) .384 (32) 2.61 (3) -4.09 (32)
30 Las Vegas Raiders .507 (11) .550 (4) 0.32 (11) 1.74 (4)
31 Cincinnati Bengals .485 (21) .491 (21) -0.52 (21) -0.35 (21)
32 Tennessee Titans .617 (1) .515 (17) 4.25 (1) 0.43 (18) NFL Season Simulations
These are based on 20,000 simulations of the remainder of the NFL season to predict outcomes like final records and playoff chances.
Projected Standings
First up is the projected won-loss records, points scored, and points allowed for each team. The rating column is the team’s overall rating, included as a measure of team strength.
AFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Buffalo Bills 11.77 5.20 0.03 .693 485.48 364.86 4.99
New England Patriots 11.90 5.07 0.03 .701 449.18 345.76 1.67
Miami Dolphins 5.26 11.71 0.03 .310 355.16 446.05 -6.32
New York Jets 4.25 12.71 0.04 .251 340.25 441.98 -7.14
AFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Pittsburgh Steelers 9.65 7.31 0.04 .569 425.31 411.68 0.12
Baltimore Ravens 8.45 8.51 0.04 .498 452.28 428.70 1.47
Cincinnati Bengals 5.33 11.64 0.03 .314 408.35 558.48 -8.61
Cleveland Browns 5.57 11.38 0.05 .329 280.11 371.04 -7.10
AFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Indianapolis Colts 12.06 4.92 0.03 .710 504.93 352.76 8.82
Houston Texans 8.77 8.18 0.05 .517 358.13 260.66 7.18
Jacksonville Jaguars 9.01 7.95 0.04 .531 362.98 389.22 -0.99
Tennessee Titans 3.13 13.84 0.03 .185 250.84 451.71 -9.17
AFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Denver Broncos 12.35 4.61 0.04 .728 404.68 292.39 5.93
Kansas City Chiefs 10.25 6.71 0.04 .604 420.04 295.39 7.43
Los Angeles Chargers 9.84 7.12 0.03 .580 387.28 369.99 1.11
Las Vegas Raiders 4.33 12.64 0.04 .256 266.36 432.19 -8.54
NFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Philadelphia Eagles 11.65 5.31 0.03 .687 452.64 383.41 4.88
Dallas Cowboys 6.32 9.65 1.03 .402 478.44 518.29 -2.87
Washington Commanders 5.96 11.01 0.03 .351 376.40 450.05 -3.74
New York Giants 5.29 11.68 0.03 .312 378.78 458.31 -4.32
NFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Detroit Lions 10.95 6.02 0.03 .645 498.83 380.09 7.20
Green Bay Packers 9.85 6.11 1.04 .610 414.88 361.16 2.81
Chicago Bears 8.76 8.20 0.04 .516 418.05 457.44 -2.54
Minnesota Vikings 8.18 8.79 0.04 .482 386.44 402.51 -0.50
NFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11.79 5.18 0.03 .694 422.94 353.27 4.07
Carolina Panthers 7.67 9.29 0.03 .452 299.02 385.17 -5.61
Atlanta Falcons 6.48 10.48 0.04 .382 293.75 369.20 -3.98
New Orleans Saints 4.09 12.87 0.04 .242 273.01 411.78 -8.44
NFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Seattle Seahawks 12.24 4.73 0.03 .721 469.80 318.64 9.58
Los Angeles Rams 12.07 4.90 0.04 .711 419.46 277.92 9.87
San Francisco 49ers 10.31 6.65 0.03 .608 370.27 350.90 1.76
Arizona Cardinals 6.90 10.05 0.04 .407 351.48 364.55 0.92 Playoff Chances
The next table shows each team’s chances of making the playoffs, winning their division, and having the best record in the conference. The mean playoff seed is an average that uses only the seasons when each team made the playoffs. Div% and Conf% are the probabilities of a team having the best record in their division and conference, respectively.
AFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Buffalo Bills 4.99 .693 95.23% 47.07% 19.09% 3.72
New England Patriots 1.67 .701 95.23% 52.93% 17.33% 3.65
Miami Dolphins -6.32 .310 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 6.91
New York Jets -7.14 .251 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 6.75
AFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Pittsburgh Steelers 0.12 .569 71.59% 65.23% 2.02% 3.86
Baltimore Ravens 1.47 .498 38.55% 33.30% 0.04% 4.29
Cincinnati Bengals -8.61 .314 0.94% 0.77% 0.00% 4.51
Cleveland Browns -7.10 .329 0.91% 0.69% 0.00% 4.65
AFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Indianapolis Colts 8.82 .710 96.86% 86.89% 31.07% 2.49
Houston Texans 7.18 .517 37.86% 6.81% 0.31% 5.76
Jacksonville Jaguars -0.99 .531 36.88% 6.30% 0.57% 5.76
Tennessee Titans -9.17 .185 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
AFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Denver Broncos 5.93 .728 97.19% 74.33% 25.32% 2.91
Kansas City Chiefs 7.43 .604 69.97% 16.96% 2.99% 5.22
Los Angeles Chargers 1.11 .580 58.67% 8.70% 1.25% 5.60
Las Vegas Raiders -8.54 .256 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 5.50
NFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Philadelphia Eagles 4.88 .687 98.56% 98.25% 20.09% 2.66
Dallas Cowboys -2.87 .402 3.12% 0.97% 0.00% 5.85
Washington Commanders -3.74 .351 1.14% 0.75% 0.00% 4.91
New York Giants -4.32 .312 0.27% 0.03% 0.00% 6.68
NFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Detroit Lions 7.20 .645 85.95% 55.70% 8.04% 3.96
Green Bay Packers 2.81 .610 75.17% 33.92% 3.17% 4.77
Chicago Bears -2.54 .516 28.25% 5.57% 0.26% 5.80
Minnesota Vikings -0.50 .482 19.19% 4.81% 0.07% 5.81
NFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4.07 .694 97.69% 96.38% 16.93% 2.82
Carolina Panthers -5.61 .452 11.59% 3.09% 0.03% 5.79
Atlanta Falcons -3.98 .382 2.10% 0.53% 0.01% 5.99
New Orleans Saints -8.44 .242 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 5.50
NFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Seattle Seahawks 9.58 .721 97.24% 48.48% 24.65% 3.59
Los Angeles Rams 9.87 .711 95.44% 43.00% 23.86% 3.76
San Francisco 49ers 1.76 .608 79.32% 8.46% 2.86% 5.59
Arizona Cardinals 0.92 .407 4.96% 0.06% 0.01% 6.51Possible Regular Season Outcomes
To give a range of how good or bad a team’s final record might be, several percentiles are shown for each team’s final winning percentage.
AFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Buffalo Bills .693 99.14% .588 .647 .706 .765 .794
New England Patriots .701 99.52% .588 .647 .706 .765 .824
Miami Dolphins .310 0.77% .235 .235 .294 .353 .412
New York Jets .251 0.09% .176 .176 .235 .294 .353
AFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Pittsburgh Steelers .569 78.89% .471 .529 .588 .647 .647
Baltimore Ravens .498 49.91% .412 .471 .500 .529 .588
Cincinnati Bengals .314 0.79% .235 .235 .294 .353 .412
Cleveland Browns .329 2.07% .235 .294 .353 .412 .412
AFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Indianapolis Colts .710 99.72% .588 .647 .706 .765 .824
Houston Texans .517 59.08% .412 .471 .529 .588 .588
Jacksonville Jaguars .531 64.22% .412 .471 .529 .588 .647
Tennessee Titans .185 0.00% .118 .118 .176 .235 .294
AFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Denver Broncos .728 99.84% .647 .706 .706 .765 .824
Kansas City Chiefs .604 91.12% .529 .529 .588 .647 .706
Los Angeles Chargers .580 84.53% .471 .529 .588 .647 .706
Las Vegas Raiders .256 0.08% .176 .176 .235 .294 .353
NFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Philadelphia Eagles .687 98.69% .588 .647 .706 .765 .765
Dallas Cowboys .402 5.56% .324 .324 .382 .441 .500
Washington Commanders .351 3.20% .235 .294 .353 .412 .471
New York Giants .312 0.76% .235 .235 .294 .353 .412
NFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Detroit Lions .645 95.98% .529 .588 .647 .706 .765
Green Bay Packers .610 83.64% .500 .559 .618 .676 .735
Chicago Bears .516 56.52% .412 .471 .529 .588 .647
Minnesota Vikings .482 40.79% .353 .412 .471 .529 .588
NFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .694 99.23% .588 .647 .706 .765 .765
Carolina Panthers .452 24.75% .353 .412 .471 .500 .529
Atlanta Falcons .382 6.71% .294 .353 .353 .412 .471
New Orleans Saints .242 0.04% .118 .176 .235 .294 .353
NFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Seattle Seahawks .721 99.67% .647 .647 .706 .765 .824
Los Angeles Rams .711 99.45% .588 .647 .706 .765 .824
San Francisco 49ers .608 92.03% .529 .529 .588 .647 .706
Arizona Cardinals .407 11.87% .294 .353 .412 .471 .529Postseason Projections
The final table shows each team’s probability of reaching the playoffs, the divisional round, the conference championship, winning their conference, and winning the Super Bowl.
AFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Buffalo Bills .693 95.23% 60.62% 31.05% 14.42% 6.38%
New England Patriots .701 95.23% 51.70% 22.07% 8.24% 2.83%
Miami Dolphins .310 0.06% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00%
New York Jets .251 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Pittsburgh Steelers .569 71.59% 32.77% 10.77% 3.89% 1.20%
Baltimore Ravens .498 38.55% 18.63% 6.44% 2.53% 0.83%
Cincinnati Bengals .314 0.94% 0.24% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00%
Cleveland Browns .329 0.91% 0.19% 0.04% 0.01% 0.01%
AFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Indianapolis Colts .710 96.86% 75.47% 50.02% 29.77% 16.12%
Houston Texans .517 37.86% 19.84% 9.98% 6.04% 2.94%
Jacksonville Jaguars .531 36.88% 11.39% 3.23% 1.09% 0.35%
Tennessee Titans .185 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Denver Broncos .728 97.19% 66.95% 38.09% 18.95% 9.03%
Kansas City Chiefs .604 69.97% 39.84% 20.61% 11.88% 5.84%
Los Angeles Chargers .580 58.67% 22.34% 7.65% 3.17% 1.04%
Las Vegas Raiders .256 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Philadelphia Eagles .687 98.56% 65.60% 32.16% 13.35% 6.19%
Dallas Cowboys .402 3.12% 0.94% 0.13% 0.01% 0.00%
Washington Commanders .351 1.14% 0.33% 0.08% 0.01% 0.01%
New York Giants .312 0.27% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Detroit Lions .645 85.95% 53.96% 28.38% 14.68% 7.79%
Green Bay Packers .610 75.17% 33.08% 12.51% 4.72% 2.04%
Chicago Bears .516 28.25% 7.46% 1.57% 0.36% 0.11%
Minnesota Vikings .482 19.19% 5.89% 1.50% 0.53% 0.16%
NFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .694 97.69% 60.95% 27.26% 10.98% 4.91%
Carolina Panthers .452 11.59% 2.23% 0.31% 0.08% 0.01%
Atlanta Falcons .382 2.10% 0.57% 0.08% 0.04% 0.01%
New Orleans Saints .242 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Seattle Seahawks .721 97.24% 69.63% 43.28% 25.71% 15.17%
Los Angeles Rams .711 95.44% 68.07% 42.55% 25.62% 15.60%
San Francisco 49ers .608 79.32% 29.64% 9.77% 3.73% 1.39%
Arizona Cardinals .407 4.96% 1.60% 0.41% 0.16% 0.05%Week 10 Game Predictions
The thresholds for close games, blowouts, and high and low scoring games are different in the NFL than in college football. That’s because NFL teams are balanced enough in talent to usually avoid truly lopsided scores and there’s just less scoring overall.
Games are ranked based on the projected quality. This factors in the overall strength of the two teams and the potential for a competitive game. Game quality ratings are not directly comparable between college football and the NFL for many of the same reasons I just mentioned. This is just for predicting which NFL games are most and least compelling each weekend.
Beside each team, there are two numbers in parentheses. One is the predicted margin of victory (positive) or defeat (negative), the other is the probability of winning. In the event that a margin is larger than what’s indicated by the predicted score, that’s because there’s nothing in the math that prevents a forecast of negative points with a sufficiently lopsided matchup. This isn’t even close to possible with the current NFL ratings, even with the weakest offense against the strongest defense, but it does occur once in awhile in college football. A negative score is impossible, of course, so the score would be set to zero in those instances. However, there’s no upper limit on how many points a team can be projected to score. But with more parity between NFL teams, even the highest scoring predictions aren’t going to be nearly as crazy as what is possible with the college football ratings.
#1: Los Angeles Rams (5.62, 66.01%) at San Francisco 49ers (-5.62, 33.57%), Tie (0.42%)
Estimated score: 22.44 - 16.79, Total: 39.23
Quality: 84.39%, Team quality: 80.59%, Competitiveness: 92.52%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 24.40%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 21.53%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 12.13%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 33.19%
#2: Philadelphia Eagles (-0.43, 48.50%) at Green Bay Packers (0.43, 51.04%), Tie (0.46%)
Estimated score: 22.33 - 22.73, Total: 45.05
Quality: 82.20%, Team quality: 74.54%, Competitiveness: 99.95%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 20.53%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 23.43%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 22.27%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 20.04%
#3: New England Patriots (-4.90, 35.53%) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4.90, 64.04%), Tie (0.43%)
Estimated score: 21.22 - 26.14, Total: 47.36
Quality: 74.20%, Team quality: 65.84%, Competitiveness: 94.25%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 23.49%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 21.97%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 27.35%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 15.85%
#4: Arizona Cardinals (-11.15, 20.13%) at Seattle Seahawks (11.15, 79.55%), Tie (0.32%)
Estimated score: 16.41 - 27.59, Total: 44.01
Quality: 69.83%, Team quality: 68.02%, Competitiveness: 73.59%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 34.94%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 16.76%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 20.16%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 22.15%
#5: Baltimore Ravens (-0.52, 48.22%) at Minnesota Vikings (0.52, 51.33%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 24.05 - 24.56, Total: 48.62
Quality: 65.72%, Team quality: 53.29%, Competitiveness: 99.93%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 20.55%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 23.42%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 30.34%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 13.82%
#6: Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.48, 39.55%) at Los Angeles Chargers (3.48, 60.01%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 21.01 - 24.50, Total: 45.51
Quality: 64.65%, Team quality: 52.77%, Competitiveness: 97.06%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 22.02%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 22.69%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 23.24%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 19.16%
#7: Jacksonville Jaguars (-10.67, 21.17%) at Houston Texans (10.67, 78.50%), Tie (0.33%)
Estimated score: 12.26 - 22.95, Total: 35.22
Quality: 62.58%, Team quality: 56.96%, Competitiveness: 75.54%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 33.80%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 17.25%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 7.37%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 43.86%
#8: Detroit Lions (8.45, 73.38%) at Washington Commanders (-8.45, 26.25%), Tie (0.37%)
Estimated score: 29.80 - 21.39, Total: 51.19
Quality: 61.91%, Team quality: 53.19%, Competitiveness: 83.86%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 29.09%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 19.33%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 36.86%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 10.25%
#9: Buffalo Bills (8.82, 74.26%) at Miami Dolphins (-8.82, 25.37%), Tie (0.37%)
Estimated score: 29.43 - 20.61, Total: 50.04
Quality: 48.94%, Team quality: 37.68%, Competitiveness: 82.56%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 29.81%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 19.01%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 33.89%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 11.75%
#10: Atlanta Falcons (-15.30, 12.59%) at Indianapolis Colts (15.30, 87.18%), Tie (0.24%)
Estimated score: 15.18 - 30.49, Total: 45.66
Quality: 46.29%, Team quality: 42.05%, Competitiveness: 56.11%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 45.76%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 12.47%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 23.56%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 18.87%
#11: New York Giants (-4.27, 37.30%) at Chicago Bears (4.27, 62.26%), Tie (0.43%)
Estimated score: 23.20 - 27.48, Total: 50.68
Quality: 40.57%, Team quality: 26.43%, Competitiveness: 95.61%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 22.78%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 22.32%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 35.55%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 10.89%
#12: Las Vegas Raiders (-16.97, 10.20%) at Denver Broncos (16.97, 89.60%), Tie (0.20%)
Estimated score: 9.52 - 26.47, Total: 35.99
Quality: 27.28%, Team quality: 20.33%, Competitiveness: 49.13%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 50.47%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 10.79%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 8.16%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 41.75%
#13: Cleveland Browns (-2.46, 42.50%) at New York Jets (2.46, 57.05%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 16.31 - 18.84, Total: 35.15
Quality: 22.66%, Team quality: 10.87%, Competitiveness: 98.52%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.27%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 23.06%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 7.30%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 44.06%
#14: New Orleans Saints (-5.32, 34.37%) at Carolina Panthers (5.32, 65.21%), Tie (0.42%)
Estimated score: 15.14 - 20.46, Total: 35.60
Quality: 21.66%, Team quality: 10.44%, Competitiveness: 93.26%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 24.01%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 21.72%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 7.75%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 42.81%I’ll be posting a couple more articles in the next few days including a look at the college football playoff rankings early next week, college basketball ratings, and hopefully getting back to the origin of The Linked Letters soon with baseball articles. Thanks for reading!
This article uses ratings that are based on data from Pro Football Reference.