Thanksgiving NFL Team Ratings and Game Predictions
Happy Thanksgiving! A quick update to the NFL computer ratings and predictions
Happy Thanksgiving! I’m a bit late getting this posted, and because it’s Thanksgiving, it’s just going to be a quick update to the computer ratings and game predictions for the NFL this week.
I didn’t expect I’d be using a photo related to the Carolina Panthers this season given their initial rating of last in the NFL, but they have a 6-6 record and are still in contention to win the NFC South. Although the Rams are heavy favorites according to my ratings, it’s intriguing just because the Panthers weren’t expected to be in contention to win their division.
Have a happy Thanksgiving, and let’s get to the ratings and predictions.
Predictive Ratings
These are forward looking ratings, meaning that they’re intended to evaluate how good a team is and predict its future success, but they don’t evaluate the quality of a team’s achievements earlier in the season. These ratings are based purely on points. They don’t factor in wins and losses, only the margin of victory. The ratings don’t explicitly calculate the strength of schedule, though I calculate this afterwards. However, because of how the ratings are calculated, the quality of opponents does influence the ratings.
The offense and defense columns refer to each team’s point scoring tendencies instead of the efficiency ratings that some other rating systems use. The overall rating is approximately the sum of a team’s offense and defense ratings. To predict the score of a game for the home team, take the home team’s offense rating, add half of the home advantage, subtract the visiting team’s defense rating, and add the mean score. Predicting the score is similar for the visiting team. Take the visiting team’s offense rating, subtract half of the home advantage, subtract the home team’s defense rating, and add the mean score. Predicting the margin of victory for a game is done by taking the home team’s rating, adding the home advantage, and subtracting the away team’s rating. For neutral site games, the home advantage is set to zero.
Predictive Ratings
Home advantage: 2.30 points
Mean score: 22.34 points
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
1 14.08 +1.22 Los Angeles Rams 5.69 8.39
2 10.77 -1.07 Seattle Seahawks 7.38 3.36
3 8.82 +0.09 Indianapolis Colts 8.33 0.52
4 7.96 +0.14 Kansas City Chiefs 1.88 6.11
5 7.55 -0.21 Houston Texans -0.36 7.94
6 6.42 -0.47 Detroit Lions 5.68 0.74
7 5.23 -0.50 Philadelphia Eagles 0.25 5.00
8 4.79 +0.04 Denver Broncos -0.41 5.19
9 3.93 -0.03 Buffalo Bills 5.62 -1.67
10 3.53 +0.10 San Francisco 49ers 1.67 1.88
11 3.37 +0.09 Jacksonville Jaguars 2.92 0.46
12 +2 2.59 +0.89 Green Bay Packers -0.91 3.47
13 -1 2.52 -0.52 New England Patriots 1.29 1.27
14 +1 2.19 +0.55 Baltimore Ravens 2.70 -0.53
15 -2 1.09 -1.62 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2.73 -1.62
16 -0.81 -0.06 Los Angeles Chargers -1.16 0.35
17 +2 -1.15 +0.63 Dallas Cowboys 5.98 -7.13
18 -1 -1.22 -0.43 Pittsburgh Steelers 0.09 -1.29
19 -1 -1.46 -0.20 Arizona Cardinals -0.24 -1.21
20 +2 -2.61 +0.70 Atlanta Falcons -3.08 0.49
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
21 -2.94 +0.19 Chicago Bears 0.73 -3.66
22 -2 -3.57 -0.55 Minnesota Vikings -3.27 -0.33
23 -4.26 +0.54 New York Giants -0.06 -4.18
24 -5.04 +0.02 Carolina Panthers -5.50 0.45
25 -5.07 +0.15 Washington Commanders -1.80 -3.31
26 -5.22 +0.03 Miami Dolphins -3.41 -1.80
27 +2 -7.02 +1.31 Cleveland Browns -7.17 0.14
28 +2 -7.80 +0.85 Tennessee Titans -5.05 -2.73
29 -1 -7.90 -0.21 New York Jets -4.57 -3.38
30 -3 -8.41 -1.11 New Orleans Saints -7.62 -0.81
31 -10.09 -1.26 Las Vegas Raiders -8.19 -1.92
32 -10.32 +0.55 Cincinnati Bengals -0.19 -10.14 Schedule Strength
The first column is the expected losing percentage (1 minus winning percentage) for a hypothetical average NFL team in each team’s games played to date. Larger numbers mean a tougher schedule. The second column is the same thing, just for future games instead of past games.
The third column is the average opponent rating, with an adjustment for the site of games, for previously played games. The fourth column is the average opponent rating for the future games that each team will play. These two columns are the same schedule strength metrics from my previous NFL articles.
In college football, the two approaches to schedule strength would differ more just because the approach used in the first two columns limits the influence of truly lopsided blowout games. In the NFL, there just aren’t that many blowouts, and the teams are more evenly balanced. Therefore, there’s just not too much of a difference in the two approaches to measuring schedule strength.
Schedule Strength for an Average Team
Home advantage: 2.30 points
Mean score: 22.34 points
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
1 Los Angeles Rams .573 (3) .546 (9) 2.51 (5) 1.87 (9)
2 Seattle Seahawks .511 (12) .567 (6) 0.59 (12) 2.54 (5)
3 Indianapolis Colts .463 (23) .664 (1) -1.14 (22) 6.02 (1)
4 Kansas City Chiefs .535 (10) .465 (23) 1.11 (11) -1.25 (23)
5 Houston Texans .567 (4) .562 (8) 2.65 (4) 2.21 (8)
6 Detroit Lions .469 (21) .522 (14) -1.08 (21) 1.30 (13)
7 Philadelphia Eagles .561 (6) .410 (28) 2.26 (6) -3.34 (28)
8 Denver Broncos .465 (22) .488 (20) -1.37 (24) -0.34 (20)
9 Buffalo Bills .460 (25) .420 (26) -1.40 (25) -3.12 (26)
10 San Francisco 49ers .563 (5) .494 (19) 2.69 (3) -0.10 (18)
11 Jacksonville Jaguars .552 (7) .496 (18) 1.95 (7) -0.18 (19)
12 Green Bay Packers .427 (30) .538 (11) -2.71 (30) 1.42 (11)
13 New England Patriots .361 (32) .424 (24) -5.05 (32) -2.71 (24)
14 Baltimore Ravens .508 (14) .421 (25) 0.36 (13) -2.99 (25)
15 Tampa Bay Buccaneers .598 (2) .348 (32) 3.82 (2) -5.40 (32)
16 Los Angeles Chargers .462 (24) .571 (5) -1.33 (23) 2.38 (6)
17 Dallas Cowboys .457 (26) .501 (17) -1.51 (26) 0.11 (17)
18 Pittsburgh Steelers .451 (29) .511 (16) -1.86 (29) 0.41 (16)
19 Arizona Cardinals .544 (9) .616 (2) 1.70 (9) 4.75 (2)
20 Atlanta Falcons .472 (20) .537 (12) -0.92 (20) 1.36 (12)
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
21 Chicago Bears .406 (31) .566 (7) -3.34 (31) 2.22 (7)
22 Minnesota Vikings .479 (18) .538 (10) -0.83 (18) 1.55 (10)
23 New York Giants .551 (8) .389 (31) 1.83 (8) -3.93 (30)
24 Carolina Panthers .481 (17) .586 (4) -0.73 (17) 3.26 (4)
25 Washington Commanders .509 (13) .529 (13) 0.27 (14) 1.04 (14)
26 Miami Dolphins .475 (19) .394 (29) -0.85 (19) -4.04 (31)
27 Cleveland Browns .451 (28) .411 (27) -1.83 (28) -3.24 (27)
28 Tennessee Titans .624 (1) .517 (15) 4.57 (1) 0.47 (15)
29 New York Jets .456 (27) .470 (22) -1.61 (27) -1.07 (22)
30 New Orleans Saints .533 (11) .394 (30) 1.57 (10) -3.81 (29)
31 Las Vegas Raiders .499 (15) .595 (3) 0.03 (15) 3.41 (3)
32 Cincinnati Bengals .484 (16) .476 (21) -0.59 (16) -0.90 (21)NFL Season Simulation Results
This season simulation is based on games and computer ratings through November 24, 2025. The season was simulated 20,000 times, and the results of the simulations have been aggregated to predict final records and playoff chances. Tiebreakers for making the postseason are simplified, and the simulations don’t factor in potential issues like injuries, but this is still useful for making an educated guess about the standings at the end of the regular season.
In some cases, playoff probabilities will show zero even though a team isn’t mathematically eliminated. That just means it’s unlikely enough of an event that it didn’t occur in the 20,000 simulations.
Projected Standings
First up is the projected won-loss records, points scored, and points allowed for each team. The rating column is the team’s overall rating, included as a measure of team strength.
AFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
New England Patriots 13.14 3.84 0.02 .774 448.75 331.23 2.52
Buffalo Bills 11.00 5.98 0.02 .648 487.30 386.16 3.93
Miami Dolphins 6.81 10.16 0.03 .401 356.17 406.24 -5.22
New York Jets 3.99 12.98 0.02 .235 329.07 441.27 -7.90
AFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Baltimore Ravens 9.77 7.21 0.02 .575 444.02 398.50 2.19
Pittsburgh Steelers 8.73 8.24 0.02 .514 412.44 411.48 -1.22
Cleveland Browns 5.41 11.56 0.03 .319 298.19 378.08 -7.02
Cincinnati Bengals 4.61 12.37 0.02 .272 386.72 555.46 -10.32
AFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Indianapolis Colts 11.43 5.55 0.03 .673 503.21 374.50 8.82
Jacksonville Jaguars 10.46 6.51 0.02 .616 421.25 383.62 3.37
Houston Texans 9.69 7.28 0.03 .571 370.93 280.82 7.55
Tennessee Titans 2.80 14.18 0.02 .165 264.46 448.50 -7.80
AFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Denver Broncos 12.78 4.19 0.03 .753 384.19 289.57 4.79
Kansas City Chiefs 10.33 6.63 0.03 .609 421.02 292.24 7.96
Los Angeles Chargers 9.49 7.49 0.03 .559 359.18 369.60 -0.81
Las Vegas Raiders 3.15 13.83 0.03 .186 235.94 422.96 -10.09
NFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Philadelphia Eagles 12.22 4.76 0.02 .720 403.95 324.78 5.23
Dallas Cowboys 7.80 8.17 1.02 .489 490.56 492.04 -1.15
New York Giants 4.47 12.51 0.02 .263 388.32 459.86 -4.26
Washington Commanders 5.05 11.93 0.02 .298 356.84 452.46 -5.07
NFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Detroit Lions 10.78 6.20 0.02 .635 494.78 381.35 6.42
Green Bay Packers 10.16 5.81 1.03 .628 392.06 324.70 2.59
Chicago Bears 10.21 6.76 0.02 .601 413.50 446.46 -2.94
Minnesota Vikings 6.23 10.74 0.03 .367 346.16 407.93 -3.57
NFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10.01 6.97 0.02 .589 414.33 400.95 1.09
Carolina Panthers 7.50 9.47 0.02 .442 295.65 388.57 -5.04
Atlanta Falcons 6.41 10.57 0.02 .378 330.94 384.39 -2.61
New Orleans Saints 4.27 12.70 0.03 .252 261.56 397.26 -8.41
NFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Los Angeles Rams 13.69 3.29 0.02 .806 469.43 271.37 14.08
Seattle Seahawks 12.17 4.81 0.02 .717 491.43 335.96 10.77
San Francisco 49ers 10.92 6.06 0.02 .643 404.71 367.45 3.53
Arizona Cardinals 5.14 11.84 0.02 .303 366.16 437.44 -1.46 Playoff Chances
The next table shows each team’s chances of making the playoffs, winning their division, and having the best record in the conference. The mean playoff seed is an average that uses only the seasons when each team made the playoffs. Div% and Conf% are the probabilities of a team having the best record in their division and conference, respectively.
AFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
New England Patriots 2.52 .774 99.56% 86.13% 47.67% 2.11
Buffalo Bills 3.93 .648 83.16% 13.87% 3.72% 5.08
Miami Dolphins -5.22 .401 0.10% 0.00% 0.00% 7.00
New York Jets -7.90 .235 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
AFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Baltimore Ravens 2.19 .575 72.21% 70.42% 0.18% 3.93
Pittsburgh Steelers -1.22 .514 34.29% 29.55% 0.05% 4.25
Cleveland Browns -7.02 .319 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 5.50
Cincinnati Bengals -10.32 .272 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 4.00
AFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Indianapolis Colts 8.82 .673 89.82% 62.86% 10.84% 3.48
Jacksonville Jaguars 3.37 .616 72.65% 22.93% 2.43% 4.98
Houston Texans 7.55 .571 53.53% 14.21% 0.24% 5.38
Tennessee Titans -7.80 .165 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
AFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Denver Broncos 4.79 .753 98.30% 86.38% 33.95% 2.33
Kansas City Chiefs 7.96 .609 63.62% 9.99% 0.66% 5.54
Los Angeles Chargers -0.81 .559 32.70% 3.63% 0.26% 5.90
Las Vegas Raiders -10.09 .186 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
NFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Philadelphia Eagles 5.23 .720 99.64% 99.31% 18.75% 2.13
Dallas Cowboys -1.15 .489 7.05% 0.69% 0.00% 6.41
New York Giants -4.26 .263 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
Washington Commanders -5.07 .298 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
NFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Detroit Lions 6.42 .635 80.71% 44.84% 1.75% 4.50
Green Bay Packers 2.59 .628 73.15% 37.41% 0.76% 4.61
Chicago Bears -2.94 .601 53.26% 17.72% 0.84% 5.29
Minnesota Vikings -3.57 .367 0.24% 0.03% 0.00% 6.50
NFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1.09 .589 88.31% 88.03% 0.03% 3.85
Carolina Panthers -5.04 .442 10.73% 10.49% 0.00% 4.05
Atlanta Falcons -2.61 .378 1.51% 1.46% 0.00% 4.10
New Orleans Saints -8.41 .252 0.03% 0.03% 0.00% 4.00
NFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Los Angeles Rams 14.08 .806 99.91% 77.27% 62.78% 2.09
Seattle Seahawks 10.77 .717 97.75% 21.85% 14.62% 4.53
San Francisco 49ers 3.53 .643 87.72% 0.89% 0.46% 5.90
Arizona Cardinals -1.46 .303 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--Possible Regular Season Outcomes
To give a range of how good or bad a team’s final record might be, several percentiles are shown for each team’s final winning percentage.
AFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
New England Patriots .774 100.00% .706 .706 .765 .824 .824
Buffalo Bills .648 98.81% .588 .588 .647 .706 .706
Miami Dolphins .401 6.65% .294 .353 .412 .471 .471
New York Jets .235 0.00% .176 .176 .235 .294 .294
AFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Baltimore Ravens .575 86.72% .471 .529 .588 .647 .647
Pittsburgh Steelers .514 57.16% .412 .471 .529 .588 .588
Cleveland Browns .319 0.38% .235 .294 .294 .353 .412
Cincinnati Bengals .272 0.04% .176 .235 .294 .294 .353
AFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Indianapolis Colts .673 99.46% .588 .647 .647 .706 .765
Jacksonville Jaguars .616 96.60% .529 .588 .618 .647 .706
Houston Texans .571 86.01% .471 .529 .588 .588 .647
Tennessee Titans .165 0.00% .118 .118 .176 .176 .235
AFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Denver Broncos .753 100.00% .647 .706 .765 .824 .824
Kansas City Chiefs .609 95.03% .529 .588 .588 .647 .706
Los Angeles Chargers .559 81.35% .471 .529 .529 .588 .647
Las Vegas Raiders .186 0.00% .118 .118 .176 .235 .235
NFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Philadelphia Eagles .720 99.97% .647 .706 .706 .765 .824
Dallas Cowboys .489 28.18% .382 .441 .500 .559 .559
New York Giants .263 0.00% .176 .235 .235 .294 .353
Washington Commanders .298 0.12% .235 .235 .294 .353 .412
NFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Detroit Lions .635 97.76% .529 .588 .647 .706 .706
Green Bay Packers .628 92.44% .559 .559 .618 .676 .735
Chicago Bears .601 94.69% .529 .529 .588 .647 .706
Minnesota Vikings .367 2.36% .294 .294 .353 .412 .471
NFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .589 89.88% .500 .529 .588 .647 .647
Carolina Panthers .442 15.07% .353 .412 .412 .471 .529
Atlanta Falcons .378 2.91% .294 .353 .353 .412 .471
New Orleans Saints .252 0.00% .176 .176 .235 .294 .353
NFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Los Angeles Rams .806 100.00% .706 .765 .824 .824 .882
Seattle Seahawks .717 99.97% .647 .676 .706 .765 .794
San Francisco 49ers .643 99.36% .588 .588 .647 .706 .706
Arizona Cardinals .303 0.04% .235 .235 .294 .353 .353Postseason Projections
The final table shows each team’s probability of reaching the playoffs, the divisional round, the conference championship, winning their conference, and winning the Super Bowl.
AFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
New England Patriots .774 99.56% 72.89% 34.75% 13.15% 3.97%
Buffalo Bills .648 83.16% 40.21% 17.95% 8.44% 2.79%
Miami Dolphins .401 0.10% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
New York Jets .235 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Baltimore Ravens .575 72.21% 35.49% 13.35% 5.70% 1.59%
Pittsburgh Steelers .514 34.29% 13.14% 4.03% 1.43% 0.34%
Cleveland Browns .319 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cincinnati Bengals .272 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Indianapolis Colts .673 89.82% 60.95% 38.63% 24.62% 11.35%
Jacksonville Jaguars .616 72.65% 33.24% 14.58% 6.79% 2.17%
Houston Texans .571 53.53% 29.22% 16.27% 9.72% 4.08%
Tennessee Titans .165 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Denver Broncos .753 98.30% 68.89% 36.89% 16.57% 5.76%
Kansas City Chiefs .609 63.62% 35.66% 19.96% 12.24% 5.61%
Los Angeles Chargers .559 32.70% 10.27% 3.60% 1.35% 0.27%
Las Vegas Raiders .186 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Philadelphia Eagles .720 99.64% 67.62% 36.20% 12.74% 6.42%
Dallas Cowboys .489 7.05% 2.10% 0.35% 0.10% 0.01%
New York Giants .263 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Washington Commanders .298 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Detroit Lions .635 80.71% 46.47% 19.89% 8.24% 4.44%
Green Bay Packers .628 73.15% 32.19% 10.84% 3.45% 1.54%
Chicago Bears .601 53.26% 14.96% 3.00% 0.61% 0.15%
Minnesota Vikings .367 0.24% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .589 88.31% 32.42% 9.88% 2.95% 1.26%
Carolina Panthers .442 10.73% 2.31% 0.41% 0.06% 0.01%
Atlanta Falcons .378 1.51% 0.43% 0.09% 0.03% 0.01%
New Orleans Saints .252 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Los Angeles Rams .806 99.91% 91.46% 68.22% 45.18% 32.20%
Seattle Seahawks .717 97.75% 70.75% 39.56% 22.33% 14.12%
San Francisco 49ers .643 87.72% 39.22% 11.56% 4.32% 1.89%
Arizona Cardinals .303 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Team Expected and Actual Records
This is similar to the strength of record data I use for college football. In that case, I predict how a hypothetical team with a predictive rating 1.5 standard deviations above the FBS mean would be expected to play against a team’s schedule, and I calculate an expected winning percentage. I subtract the expected winning percentage from the team’s actual winning percentage. The hypothetical team is a benchmark for how a good team would be expected to perform against a particular schedule. Teams with better records than the benchmark are typically very good teams, and they’re generally the teams that fans would subjectively consider most deserving of being in the college football playoff.
Instead of using a hypothetical team here, I substitute in each team’s actual predictive rating and calculate the expected winning percentage. Then I subtract that from the team’s actual winning percentage. For lack of a better term, I’ve been calling this team strength of record (TeamSOR), and that’s because it’s very similar to the other strength of record calculations I do in college football. When the number gets well above zero, and I would generally use at least above .100 as a threshold here, it’s an indication that a team’s record may have benefited from luck, and that the team might not be able to sustain their success. And when the number gets well below zero, probably at least below -.100, it implies a team might have been unlucky, and that they might be a good candidate to play better going forward. The Win% column is a team’s actual winning percentage, and Predictive is the team’s predictive rating.
Strength of Record for Each Team’s Rating
Rank TeamSOR Team Win% Predictive
1 .213 Chicago Bears .727 -2.94 (21)
2 .170 Denver Broncos .818 4.79 (8)
3 .145 Philadelphia Eagles .727 5.23 (7)
4 .141 San Francisco 49ers .667 3.53 (10)
5 .132 New England Patriots .833 2.52 (13)
6 .121 Los Angeles Chargers .636 -0.81 (16)
7 .117 Carolina Panthers .500 -5.04 (24)
8 .116 Tampa Bay Buccaneers .545 1.09 (15)
9 .102 Jacksonville Jaguars .636 3.37 (11)
10 .040 Green Bay Packers .682 2.59 (12)
11 .035 Los Angeles Rams .818 14.08 (1)
12 .028 Pittsburgh Steelers .545 -1.22 (18)
13 .024 Cincinnati Bengals .273 -10.32 (32)
14 -.002 Baltimore Ravens .545 2.19 (14)
15 -.008 Buffalo Bills .636 3.93 (9)
16 -.011 Indianapolis Colts .727 8.82 (3)
17 -.012 Dallas Cowboys .500 -1.15 (17)
18 -.021 Miami Dolphins .364 -5.22 (26)
19 -.025 Seattle Seahawks .727 10.77 (2)
20 -.056 Detroit Lions .636 6.42 (6)
Rank TeamSOR Team Win% Predictive
21 -.060 Minnesota Vikings .364 -3.57 (22)
22 -.074 Las Vegas Raiders .182 -10.09 (31)
23 -.078 New Orleans Saints .182 -8.41 (30)
24 -.082 Houston Texans .545 7.55 (5)
25 -.087 Washington Commanders .273 -5.07 (25)
26 -.091 Cleveland Browns .273 -7.02 (27)
27 -.094 Atlanta Falcons .364 -2.61 (20)
28 -.111 Tennessee Titans .091 -7.80 (28)
29 -.130 Kansas City Chiefs .545 7.96 (4)
30 -.146 Arizona Cardinals .273 -1.46 (19)
31 -.149 New York Jets .182 -7.90 (29)
32 -.168 New York Giants .167 -4.26 (23) Week 13 Game Predictions
The thresholds for close games, blowouts, and high and low scoring games are different in the NFL than in college football. That’s because NFL teams are balanced enough in talent to usually avoid truly lopsided scores and there’s just less scoring overall.
Games are ranked based on the projected quality. This factors in the overall strength of the two teams and the potential for a competitive game. Game quality ratings are not directly comparable between college football and the NFL for many of the same reasons I just mentioned. This is just for predicting which NFL games are most and least compelling each weekend.
Beside each team, there are two numbers in parentheses. One is the predicted margin of victory (positive) or defeat (negative), the other is the probability of winning. In the event that a margin is larger than what’s indicated by the predicted score, that’s because there’s nothing in the math that prevents a forecast of negative points with a sufficiently lopsided matchup. This isn’t even close to possible with the current NFL ratings, even with the weakest offense against the strongest defense, but it does occur once in awhile in college football. A negative score is impossible, of course, so the score would be set to zero in those instances. However, there’s no upper limit on how many points a team can be projected to score. But with more parity between NFL teams, even the highest scoring predictions aren’t going to be nearly as crazy as what is possible with the college football ratings.
#1: Houston Texans (-3.57, 39.32%) at Indianapolis Colts (3.57, 60.23%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 20.31 - 23.88, Total: 44.18
Quality: 91.90%, Team quality: 89.51%, Competitiveness: 96.86%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 22.61%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.02%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 21.26%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 22.52%
#2: Green Bay Packers (-6.14, 32.23%) at Detroit Lions (6.14, 67.35%), Tie (0.41%)
Estimated score: 19.54 - 25.69, Total: 45.24
Quality: 78.17%, Team quality: 72.45%, Competitiveness: 91.01%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 25.59%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 15.87%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 23.37%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 20.45%
#3: Kansas City Chiefs (6.80, 69.11%) at Dallas Cowboys (-6.80, 30.48%), Tie (0.40%)
Estimated score: 30.19 - 23.36, Total: 53.55
Quality: 72.71%, Team quality: 65.70%, Competitiveness: 89.07%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 26.61%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 15.50%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 43.42%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 8.42%
#4: Buffalo Bills (2.85, 58.15%) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.85, 41.40%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 28.09 - 25.24, Total: 53.34
Quality: 68.86%, Team quality: 57.73%, Competitiveness: 97.99%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 22.05%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.24%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 42.85%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 8.64%
#5: Arizona Cardinals (-4.86, 35.70%) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4.86, 63.87%), Tie (0.43%)
Estimated score: 22.57 - 27.43, Total: 49.99
Quality: 58.86%, Team quality: 46.51%, Competitiveness: 94.26%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 23.92%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 16.51%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 34.23%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 12.66%
#6: Denver Broncos (7.56, 71.07%) at Washington Commanders (-7.56, 28.54%), Tie (0.39%)
Estimated score: 24.08 - 16.50, Total: 40.58
Quality: 54.88%, Team quality: 43.66%, Competitiveness: 86.67%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 27.87%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 15.03%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 14.97%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 30.41%
#7: Chicago Bears (-10.47, 21.73%) at Philadelphia Eagles (10.47, 77.93%), Tie (0.34%)
Estimated score: 16.91 - 27.40, Total: 44.31
Quality: 54.82%, Team quality: 46.54%, Competitiveness: 76.05%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 33.70%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 12.99%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 21.51%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 22.26%
#8: Los Angeles Rams (16.82, 89.12%) at Carolina Panthers (-16.82, 10.67%), Tie (0.21%)
Estimated score: 26.43 - 9.60, Total: 36.02
Quality: 50.61%, Team quality: 51.15%, Competitiveness: 49.56%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 50.21%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 8.09%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 9.02%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 41.89%
#9: New York Giants (-9.08, 24.85%) at New England Patriots (9.08, 74.78%), Tie (0.36%)
Estimated score: 19.85 - 28.96, Total: 48.81
Quality: 48.40%, Team quality: 37.32%, Competitiveness: 81.37%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 30.74%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 14.01%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 31.35%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 14.36%
#10: Minnesota Vikings (-16.64, 10.91%) at Seattle Seahawks (16.64, 88.88%), Tie (0.21%)
Estimated score: 14.56 - 31.19, Total: 45.75
Quality: 47.88%, Team quality: 46.72%, Competitiveness: 50.30%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 49.70%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 8.22%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 24.45%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 19.49%
#11: San Francisco 49ers (8.25, 72.78%) at Cleveland Browns (-8.25, 26.84%), Tie (0.38%)
Estimated score: 22.71 - 14.44, Total: 37.15
Quality: 45.61%, Team quality: 33.54%, Competitiveness: 84.34%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 29.12%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 14.58%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 10.29%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 38.94%
#12: Jacksonville Jaguars (8.87, 74.28%) at Tennessee Titans (-8.87, 25.36%), Tie (0.37%)
Estimated score: 26.84 - 17.98, Total: 44.81
Quality: 42.19%, Team quality: 30.23%, Competitiveness: 82.15%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 30.31%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 14.16%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 22.51%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 21.27%
#13: Atlanta Falcons (2.99, 58.56%) at New York Jets (-2.99, 40.99%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 21.49 - 18.43, Total: 39.92
Quality: 33.43%, Team quality: 19.55%, Competitiveness: 97.79%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 22.15%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.20%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 13.96%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 31.99%
#14: New Orleans Saints (-5.50, 33.95%) at Miami Dolphins (5.50, 65.63%), Tie (0.42%)
Estimated score: 15.37 - 20.89, Total: 36.27
Quality: 24.62%, Team quality: 12.68%, Competitiveness: 92.72%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 24.71%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 16.21%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 9.28%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 41.25%
#15: Cincinnati Bengals (-14.81, 13.60%) at Baltimore Ravens (14.81, 86.15%), Tie (0.25%)
Estimated score: 21.53 - 36.32, Total: 57.85
Quality: 23.77%, Team quality: 15.22%, Competitiveness: 57.97%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 44.61%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 9.62%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 54.99%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 4.87%
#16: Las Vegas Raiders (-11.58, 19.41%) at Los Angeles Chargers (11.58, 80.28%), Tie (0.32%)
Estimated score: 12.65 - 24.24, Total: 36.89
Quality: 23.72%, Team quality: 13.65%, Competitiveness: 71.56%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 36.29%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 12.14%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 9.99%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 39.60%Happy Thanksgiving! Thanks for reading!
This article uses data from Pro Football Reference to calculate the ratings.