Projecting the College Football Playoff Rankings after Week 14
How will losses by Ohio State and Miami shake up the rankings?
Good morning. That’s an image of Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, the site of the SEC championship between Georgia and Texas next weekend. Last year, that game would probably decide a bid in the four-team playoff. This year, both teams will be in the playoff, but the game will determine a bye in the new 12-team playoff.
My computer has been crunching the numbers overnight and generating preliminary ratings after Saturday's college football games. These are preliminary ratings because my data source doesn't have division II and III scores posted just yet. Because my rating systems take a holistic view of college football and iterate over the results many times, it's possible that lower division results could cause small changes that propagate up to the FBS ratings. It's unlikely to have any significant impact, but I'll post the complete ratings in a couple of days.
We now know the matchups in next weekend’s conference championship games, including the rematch between Georgia and Texas in Atlanta for the SEC championship, and that Penn State and Oregon will play for the Big Ten title. But there are still a lot of questions about whether teams like Alabama that are currently outside the college football playoff can back their way in. They got some help with losses by Miami and Ohio State, but is that enough to keep their playoff hopes alive?
Preliminary Ratings
The predictive ratings (the "Predictive" column) are based purely on the score of the games and do not take into account wins and losses. Of the three ratings I include here, this is probably the best at predicting future performance. To estimate the margin of victory in a future game, take the home team's rating, subtract the visiting team's rating, and then add in the home field advantage if it's not a neutral site game.
Strength of record (the "Record" column) uses the predictive ratings as a measure of the quality of each team, estimates how certain benchmark teams like an average FBS or average college football team in any division would fare against the schedule, and compares it against the team's actual winning percentage. This is closer to what the college football playoff selection committee is intended to do, which is to evaluate which teams are most deserving of earning a playoff berth.
The overall rating (the "Rating" column) is the mean of the predictive and strength of record ratings, intended to account for both a team's quality and their wins during the season. Schedule strength is not directly included in any of the ratings, but the rating in the table (the "Schedule" column) is the mean of the predictive ratings for the team's opponents to date, adding in the home field advantage adjustment as appropriate. Here are the preliminary ratings:
Overall Ratings
Home advantage: 2.57 points
Rank Rating Team Predictive Record Schedule
1 70.41 Texas 70.92 (2) 69.90 (2) 47.92 (31)
2 69.25 Notre Dame 71.07 (1) 67.42 (4) 44.88 (53)
3 67.46 Oregon 63.22 (11) 71.70 (1) 44.46 (55)
4 66.73 Georgia 65.56 (7) 67.90 (3) 52.09 (4)
5 66.34 Ohio State 69.82 (3) 62.87 (12) 45.17 (48)
6 65.88 Alabama 68.78 (4) 62.98 (11) 51.20 (8)
7 65.48 Penn State 63.75 (9) 67.22 (5) 43.95 (59)
8 64.88 SMU 62.92 (12) 66.84 (6) 43.34 (61)
9 64.28 Tennessee 65.84 (6) 62.73 (13) 44.08 (58)
10 64.22 Indiana 65.43 (8) 63.01 (10) 39.07 (74)
11 63.29 Ole Miss 67.77 (5) 58.82 (20) 44.93 (52)
12 62.65 South Carolina 63.27 (10) 62.02 (14) 49.60 (17)
13 62.05 Miami 62.51 (13) 61.60 (15) 42.65 (65)
14 61.52 Arizona State 57.99 (19) 65.05 (7) 47.53 (34)
15 61.49 Iowa State 58.49 (17) 64.50 (9) 46.73 (39)
16 61.08 Colorado 61.05 (15) 61.12 (16) 48.44 (27)
17 60.95 BYU 57.40 (22) 64.51 (8) 46.92 (38)
18 59.20 Louisville 61.55 (14) 56.85 (25) 49.21 (19)
19 58.55 Clemson 58.92 (16) 58.17 (22) 44.86 (54)
20 58.33 LSU 57.57 (20) 59.09 (18) 51.88 (6)
Rank Rating Team Predictive Record Schedule
21 57.44 Boise State 54.22 (33) 60.67 (17) 36.45 (85)
22 57.32 Kansas State 57.50 (21) 57.15 (24) 49.57 (18)
23 56.98 Texas A&M 57.28 (23) 56.68 (26) 48.83 (22)
24 56.73 Missouri 54.59 (32) 58.87 (19) 45.05 (51)
25 56.16 Baylor 56.59 (26) 55.72 (30) 47.62 (33)
26 55.88 Florida 56.81 (25) 54.95 (31) 53.14 (1)
27 55.27 Tulane 58.11 (18) 52.44 (38) 37.51 (80)
28 55.02 Iowa 56.19 (27) 53.85 (34) 45.67 (45)
29 54.04 UNLV 51.87 (38) 56.21 (27) 35.95 (90)
30 53.95 Syracuse 49.29 (48) 58.60 (21) 45.17 (49)
31 53.57 Illinois 49.95 (46) 57.19 (23) 43.13 (63)
32 53.38 TCU 52.59 (35) 54.17 (33) 45.20 (47)
33 53.12 Michigan 53.17 (34) 53.08 (37) 51.03 (10)
34 52.80 USC 56.84 (24) 48.75 (47) 50.80 (11)
35 52.75 Minnesota 55.27 (31) 50.23 (41) 46.33 (42)
36 52.69 Oklahoma 55.38 (30) 50.01 (43) 52.58 (2)
37 52.68 Texas Tech 50.46 (42) 54.90 (32) 46.57 (40)
38 52.30 Army 48.66 (50) 55.94 (29) 31.04 (123)
39 51.54 Virginia Tech 55.79 (29) 47.29 (53) 48.81 (23)
40 51.32 Georgia Tech 51.47 (39) 51.17 (40) 47.43 (35)
Rank Rating Team Predictive Record Schedule
41 51.29 Duke 46.40 (56) 56.19 (28) 42.25 (66)
42 50.68 Kansas 56.06 (28) 45.30 (60) 51.95 (5)
43 49.96 Vanderbilt 52.07 (37) 47.85 (49) 48.81 (24)
44 49.90 Boston College 50.39 (43) 49.41 (45) 45.37 (46)
45 49.25 Pittsburgh 49.42 (47) 49.08 (46) 44.17 (56)
46 49.18 Memphis 44.80 (64) 53.56 (35) 32.89 (109)
47 48.91 Louisiana 44.66 (65) 53.16 (36) 31.78 (119)
48 48.53 Marshall 44.95 (63) 52.10 (39) 37.47 (81)
49 48.36 Arkansas 50.69 (41) 46.03 (55) 46.04 (43)
50 47.76 Navy 45.47 (59) 50.05 (42) 36.01 (89)
51 47.64 Nebraska 50.16 (44) 45.13 (61) 46.04 (44)
52 47.38 Rutgers 46.85 (55) 47.90 (48) 42.66 (64)
53 47.16 Washington 47.89 (53) 46.43 (54) 47.95 (30)
54 46.62 Auburn 52.29 (36) 40.95 (77) 46.35 (41)
55 46.40 West Virginia 45.47 (60) 47.32 (52) 48.19 (29)
56 46.11 Cincinnati 49.28 (49) 42.93 (65) 49.10 (20)
57 45.83 Utah 50.13 (45) 41.54 (75) 47.36 (36)
58 45.50 Georgia Southern 41.25 (75) 49.74 (44) 40.59 (69)
59 45.49 Wisconsin 48.28 (52) 42.69 (69) 49.07 (21)
60 45.40 UCLA 45.42 (61) 45.39 (57) 52.44 (3)
Rank Rating Team Predictive Record Schedule
61 45.18 California 47.66 (54) 42.70 (68) 43.29 (62)
62 44.55 James Madison 45.24 (62) 43.86 (62) 32.16 (115)
63 44.48 Washington State 43.25 (68) 45.70 (56) 35.13 (97)
64 44.20 UCF 51.05 (40) 37.35 (91) 47.90 (32)
65 44.11 North Carolina 46.17 (57) 42.06 (70) 42.17 (67)
66 43.85 Kentucky 48.45 (51) 39.25 (83) 50.10 (12)
67 43.47 Ohio 39.60 (77) 47.34 (51) 30.06 (126)
68 43.40 Miami (OH) 41.42 (73) 45.39 (58) 34.45 (102)
69 43.24 Virginia 43.55 (66) 42.92 (66) 49.65 (16)
70 42.95 NC State 42.76 (69) 43.15 (64) 43.77 (60)
71 42.92 Texas State 45.91 (58) 39.94 (80) 33.31 (106)
72 41.22 Houston 42.57 (70) 39.88 (81) 51.11 (9)
73 41.16 Sam Houston 34.48 (97) 47.83 (50) 31.69 (120)
74 40.79 UConn 38.73 (80) 42.86 (67) 31.02 (124)
75 40.11 Western Kentucky 36.99 (90) 43.23 (63) 31.64 (121)
76 40.08 Colorado State 34.84 (96) 45.32 (59) 34.15 (103)
77 40.05 Jacksonville State 38.33 (83) 41.77 (74) 29.59 (129)
78 39.75 Maryland 42.04 (71) 37.46 (89) 48.59 (26)
79 39.50 Bowling Green 38.95 (78) 40.05 (79) 32.65 (110)
80 39.40 Michigan State 38.38 (82) 40.43 (78) 45.11 (50)
Rank Rating Team Predictive Record Schedule
81 39.02 Northern Illinois 38.56 (81) 39.48 (82) 33.01 (107)
82 38.98 Old Dominion 41.40 (74) 36.57 (95) 41.58 (68)
83 38.48 San José State 35.96 (93) 40.99 (76) 34.73 (100)
84 38.26 South Alabama 40.61 (76) 35.91 (96) 32.64 (112)
85 38.02 Oklahoma State 41.62 (72) 34.41 (102) 49.96 (13)
86 37.93 Northwestern 38.95 (79) 36.90 (93) 47.30 (37)
87 37.70 Toledo 36.75 (91) 38.65 (84) 31.81 (118)
88 37.62 Arizona 37.68 (86) 37.56 (87) 48.29 (28)
89 37.27 Fresno State 37.81 (85) 36.73 (94) 35.25 (96)
90 37.26 South Florida 37.12 (89) 37.39 (90) 34.91 (99)
91 37.13 Liberty 32.44 (103) 41.82 (73) 25.00 (134)
92 36.74 Coastal Carolina 35.99 (92) 37.49 (88) 36.52 (84)
93 36.74 Mississippi State 43.29 (67) 30.19 (108) 51.59 (7)
94 36.45 East Carolina 34.91 (95) 37.98 (86) 30.17 (125)
95 36.30 Wake Forest 37.63 (87) 34.98 (99) 44.16 (57)
96 36.25 Buffalo 30.48 (109) 42.03 (71) 29.13 (130)
97 36.19 App State 34.37 (98) 38.01 (85) 40.50 (70)
98 36.07 North Texas 35.08 (94) 37.06 (92) 35.53 (94)
99 35.66 Stanford 37.97 (84) 33.34 (104) 48.74 (25)
100 35.05 Arkansas State 28.13 (117) 41.97 (72) 35.69 (92)
Rank Rating Team Predictive Record Schedule
101 34.68 UTSA 34.00 (100) 35.35 (98) 32.96 (108)
102 33.46 Florida State 37.38 (88) 29.54 (109) 49.86 (14)
103 33.33 Oregon State 32.34 (104) 34.31 (103) 38.25 (77)
104 33.00 UL Monroe 31.21 (105) 34.80 (100) 39.01 (75)
105 32.05 Western Michigan 29.40 (113) 34.71 (101) 31.37 (122)
106 32.01 Charlotte 28.56 (115) 35.47 (97) 39.73 (73)
107 31.27 Air Force 30.52 (108) 32.01 (105) 35.31 (95)
108 30.90 Rice 32.93 (102) 28.87 (110) 36.30 (87)
109 30.76 New Mexico 30.34 (110) 31.19 (106) 34.67 (101)
110 30.59 Troy 33.13 (101) 28.05 (113) 35.61 (93)
111 29.65 Nevada 34.34 (99) 24.96 (119) 39.91 (72)
112 29.61 Hawai'i 28.34 (116) 30.88 (107) 32.20 (114)
113 29.59 Utah State 30.71 (107) 28.46 (112) 36.30 (86)
114 28.38 Georgia State 30.16 (111) 26.60 (116) 40.49 (71)
115 27.91 Louisiana Tech 29.02 (114) 26.79 (115) 27.48 (133)
116 27.60 Wyoming 29.94 (112) 25.27 (117) 38.96 (76)
117 27.02 Eastern Michigan 26.44 (119) 27.60 (114) 28.69 (132)
118 26.90 Florida International 30.77 (106) 23.03 (124) 30.00 (128)
119 26.78 Akron 25.09 (124) 28.47 (111) 36.19 (88)
120 25.92 UAB 27.90 (118) 23.93 (122) 35.70 (91)
Rank Rating Team Predictive Record Schedule
121 25.36 Purdue 26.15 (121) 24.57 (121) 49.73 (15)
122 25.25 Central Michigan 25.28 (123) 25.21 (118) 32.42 (113)
123 24.12 San Diego State 26.21 (120) 22.04 (125) 34.10 (104)
124 23.34 Temple 21.91 (127) 24.77 (120) 37.81 (79)
125 23.18 Ball State 22.51 (125) 23.85 (123) 36.78 (82)
126 22.22 Florida Atlantic 25.31 (122) 19.13 (129) 30.01 (127)
127 20.40 UTEP 20.15 (128) 20.65 (127) 32.64 (111)
128 20.31 Massachusetts 22.08 (126) 18.54 (131) 34.99 (98)
129 19.12 Middle Tennessee 17.06 (131) 21.17 (126) 33.50 (105)
130 18.59 New Mexico State 17.24 (129) 19.94 (128) 31.99 (116)
131 16.03 Kennesaw State 17.10 (130) 14.97 (133) 31.92 (117)
132 15.70 Southern Miss 16.02 (132) 15.38 (132) 38.05 (78)
133 15.16 Tulsa 11.42 (133) 18.90 (130) 29.04 (131)
134 8.24 Kent State 6.44 (134) 10.03 (134) 36.63 (83) Predictive ratings don't respond to wins and losses in the same way as the strength of record. Ohio State only dropped two spots after losing to Michigan. Georgia moved down a spot after narrowly escaping a home loss against Georgia Tech. Miami went down five spots after losing to Syracuse. Alabama is ranked in the same spot, but their actual rating dropped over a point after the Iron Bowl. There are small shifts throughout the predictive ratings, but the strength of record ratings are what matters for the playoffs, and those can swing more dramatically.
The strength of record ratings are what I use to estimate a playoff bracket from the computer ratings. If we went by those ratings, here's what the playoff would be:
Playoff Seeds
#1 Oregon
#2 Texas
#3 SMU
#4 Arizona State
#5 Georgia
#6 Notre Dame
#7 Penn State
#8 BYU
#9 Iowa State
#10 Indiana
#11 Alabama
#12 Boise State
First Four Out
#13 Ohio State
#14 Tennessee
#15 South Carolina
#16 MiamiAlthough I agree with many of the computer's decisions, I believe Iowa State and Alabama are a bit overrated here, and that Ohio State and Tennessee would be better choices. It seems harsh to drop Ohio State all the way out of the playoff with a three loss SEC team ahead of them. I’ve already said plenty about why the Big 12 may be systematically underrated a bit by the playoff committee, so there’s no need to revisit those arguments yet again. But should Miami still get a playoff spot after losing two of the last three games, or should their spot go to another SEC team?
Projecting the Selection Committee's Rankings
Instead of debating the merits of the strength of record ratings, they can be used to make an educated guess about the selection committee's rankings in a couple of days. The starting point will be last week's rankings, then filling in the spots after #25 with the top teams in the AP poll that weren't included in the committee's rankings.
I'll start at the top of the selection committee's rankings and go down the list. For each team that lost this weekend, I'll look at how far they dropped in the strength of record ratings and move then down accordingly in my projected new rankings. Then I’ll move down the list to the next team that lost and repeat the process. The teams moving down are Ohio State (-7), Miami (-7), Clemson (-7), Tulane (-14), Texas A&M (-6), and Kansas State (-5). After making the adjustments, here are the projected new rankings:
Projected College Football Playoff Rankings
Rank Team
#1 Oregon
#2 Texas
#3 Penn State
#4 Notre Dame
#5 Georgia
#6 Tennessee
#7 SMU
#8 Ohio State
#9 Indiana
#10 Boise State
#11 Miami
#12 Alabama
#13 Ole Miss
#14 South Carolina
#15 Arizona State
#16 Iowa State
#17 Clemson
#18 BYU
#19 Missouri
#20 UNLV
Rank Team
#21 Illinois
#22 Colorado
#23 Army
#24 Texas A&M
#25 MemphisAlthough I said that teams like Ohio State and Miami would drop seven positions, they've only fallen six and five positions, respectively. This is because I started at the top of the rankings and initially dropped Ohio State seven spots, meaning that Miami was in front of them. Because Miami then also dropped seven spots, it allowed Ohio State to move back up a spot. Miami also had the benefit of a couple of teams losing and dropping several spots.
This is a feature, not a bug. With the exception of Colorado, the other teams that dropped in last week's rankings only fell five or six spots. These projected rankings are in line with how the committee updated their rankings last week. I didn't move up teams that won because there weren't that many quality wins that were decisive enough to justify increasing a team's rankings. Iowa State won against Kansas State, but there's probably not a strong case for moving the Cyclones ahead of Arizona State at this point. That particular debate will be decided on the field next weekend, anyway. South Carolina picked up a quality win over Clemson, but it was projected to be a close game, and it actually was a close game. Had South Carolina won by a wider margin, there would be a stronger argument for moving them ahead of Ole Miss and perhaps Alabama.
The biggest question is whether Miami deserves to hold on to their playoff spot, or if another SEC team will move ahead of them. Miami has played a considerably weaker schedule than Alabama, Ole Miss, and South Carolina. Their two losses are to Syracuse and Georgia Tech. Syracuse is actually #26 in my projections, though they're quite a bit lower in my predictive rankings. Georgia Tech almost beat Georgia in Athens and should not be considered a bad loss. Miami doesn't have the quality wins, but the committee seems to have scrutinized losses quite a bit, and I don't think their two losses will keep them out of the playoff for an SEC team with three losses.
I'll have complete updated ratings once the full week 14 results are in, and I have a few other articles planned for this week including picks for next weekend's conference championship games.
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