Preseason Forecast of the 2024 MLB Standings
Win-loss projections for every team, playoff chances, and key storylines from each division
This is the first in a series of seven articles projecting the 2024 MLB season. I'm beginning with the projected standings, then I'll go into more depth about each division over the upcoming days. The data used in these forecasts is current as of March 19, 2024. If you’re interested in reading more articles like this, please consider subscribing.
The basic approach to generating this forecast is similar to the playoff odds displayed on Fangraphs, but with a few key differences. I begin with predictions of the stats for individual players to estimate the number of runs each team will score and allow over the season. I'll go into more detail in an upcoming article about how I forecast the statistics for each player, but a caveat is that it currently requires that a player have accumulated some MLB stats. In there's no individual forecast for a player, I estimate the production at 90% of league average. Each team's defensive skill is projected with 60% based on its performance over the past three seasons, and the remaining 40% is the league average.
I simulate the season 10,000 times, using each team's expected runs scored and allowed to estimate what their winning percentage should be against average competition. In each of the simulations, the expected runs scored and allowed are varied. I use a normal distribution, with a larger spread if there's more uncertainty in the predictions for individual players. This generally means there is more uncertainty in these predictions compared to Fangraphs, often lowering the playoff chances for the best teams and raising them for the worst teams. This is version 1 of the system, and I'll improve and build upon it in the future. With that said, here are my projected standings for the 2024 season:
The most competitive divisions appear to be the NL Central, AL West, and AL East. I'll preview each division in more detail in the upcoming days, but here are some interesting storylines in each division.
The Yankees are favored to win the AL East after making major upgrades, especially the addition of Juan Soto in the outfield. Most of the improvement in this forecast is the result of a more potent offense, projected here to score 125 more runs than last season. A compelling storyline in this division is whether the Yankees will pull away or if the Rays and Orioles will keep pace. The full impact of the Rays' depth probably isn't being accounted for, and they may well outperform this forecast. The Orioles also greatly outperformed preseason forecasts in 2022 and 2023, and these projections are not factoring in the potential upside of Jackson Holliday. Acquiring Corbin Burnes was also a major upgrade to their pitching staff, and it would not be very surprising if the Orioles again significantly exceeded expectations. This is a particularly deep division, and the Blue Jays and Red Sox are certainly not bad teams.
The AL Central is a particularly weak division, though perhaps not to the same extent as in 2023. The Twins are strongly favored to win the division, and the Tigers and Guardians are expected to be a little better this season. However, the most interesting storyline might be the improvement of the Royals, one of three 100 loss AL teams last year. While the White Sox continue to unload players, having dealt Dylan Cease to the Padres this spring, the Royals seem committed to improving. Signing Bobby Witt Jr. to an 11-year contract valued at $288.7 million and spending over $100 million more in free agency during the winter was a surprising departure from the historical tendency of the franchise. Although the Royals will likely finish in fourth place, they have significant upside and could become a compelling story if they outperform the projections this season.
Although the A's should be markedly improved this season, the Angels lost Shohei Ohtani, and the AL West appears to be a three team race between the Astros, Mariners, and Rangers. This is another instance where the potential impact of a player without prior major league experience, Wyatt Langford, is not being completely factored into these projections. The Rangers may be better than we expect despite major concerns about their pitching. The Mariners' offseason was overshadowed by payroll limitations caused by continuing concerns about the future of regional sports networks, but they were still prolific in making trades to try to maximize the talent on the roster. The biggest move by the Astros was giving Jose Altuve a five-year contract valued at $125 million, but they also added Josh Hader to be the closer this season. Despite making few moves, the Astros should still be in a good position to make a run at a division title. This division could certainly send three teams to the playoffs, especially if any of the big three in the AL East falter.
The Braves are heavily favored to win the NL East, but the Mets, Marlins, and Phillies all have the potential to contend for a playoff spot. The Mets focused on acquiring pitching help during the winter, and adding Harrison Bader to play elite defense in center field should also help them give up fewer runs. The Marlins had a particularly quiet offseason, with Tim Anderson as the only major league free agent signing. Overall, the Marlins are expected to be a bit worse this year, though they could still contend for a spot in the postseason. The Phillies' biggest moves during the offseason were to keep Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler in their rotation for the next few years. Although the Phillies didn't make major upgrades, they are still in a position to contend for a playoff spot. Overall, the three team race for second place in the NL East is the most compelling story here.
The NL Central is wide open this year, with the Brewers trading staff ace Burnes to the Orioles and the Cubs doing little to upgrade. Despite losing Noelvi Marté to an 80-game suspension, the Reds have a strong core of young talent and are quite possibly the best team in the division. The Cardinals were surprisingly active in overhauling their pitching staff, but it's not clear how much this will translate to more wins. They were among the worst teams defensively last year, and by my estimate, the Cardinals might have won approximately seven more games if they just played league average defense. The bullpen should be improved, but they built the rotation around pitching lots of innings and loaded up on veteran starters who are late in their career. The problem is that the pitching last year was not as bad as it appeared from the runs allowed, and it's not clear how much of an upgrade this really is. The offense should be somewhat better, but despite an active offseason, have the Cardinals done enough to get back in the playoffs? Or are the Reds actually the team to beat in this division?
The Dodgers went on a major spending spree this winter, giving out over $1.2 billion in contracts to build a super team. They are unsurprisingly a heavy favorite to win the NL West. The more interesting story here is the next three teams in the projections and which ones can make the playoffs. The Padres certainly underperformed last year, and they appear weaker on paper by dealing Juan Soto to the Yankees and losing Blake Snell to the Giants. However, the pitching staff should still be strong this season after dealing for Dylan Cease. Jackson Merrill will play center field, but the Padres do not appear to expect him to make immediate contributions offensively, so this is unlikely to greatly impact the projections. The Giants made a number of significant moves during the offseason, including signing Snell, Jordan Hicks, and Matt Chapman. It's less certain whether they have done enough to get to the postseason. The Diamondbacks' offseason moves were generally viewed as upgrades, but they also appear to still be on the bubble for a playoff spot. Despite the Padres having notable subtractions, they may well still be the best of these three teams.
These are a few of the most interesting storylines, and I'll go into more depth about each division in the coming days along with player projections for every team.
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The data used in this work is sourced from Baseball Reference, Fangraphs, and Retrosheet.