NFL Week 6 Computer Ratings and Predictions
Can the Baltimore Ravens recover from their 1-4 start?
The Eagles visit the Giants this evening for Thursday Night Football, and that means it’s time to post updated NFL ratings and the game predictions for this week. The big story this season is that the Baltimore Ravens have dropped to 1-4, a very surprising result considering their preseason rating and probabilities of making the playoffs.
If I’m going to explain what’s up with the Ravens, I’ll need to begin with updated predictive ratings, schedule strength, and a new season simulation. The Ravens aren’t the only big story in these ratings, either. The Colts and Texans have made big moves up the ratings, and the Chargers have fallen several spots. The Jaguars are also in contention in the AFC South, and they could similarly move up in the ratings and be a topic of more discussion in coming weeks if they continue to play well. Let’s get to the ratings.
Updated Ratings
These are forward looking ratings, meaning that they’re intended to evaluate how good a team is and predict its future success, but they don’t evaluate the quality of a team’s achievements earlier in the season. These ratings are based purely on points. They don’t factor in wins and losses, only the margin of victory. The ratings don’t explicitly calculate the strength of schedule, though I calculate this afterwards. However, because of how the ratings are calculated, the quality of opponents does influence the ratings.
The offense and defense columns refer to each team’s point scoring tendencies instead of the efficiency ratings that some other rating systems use. The overall rating is approximately the sum of a team’s offense and defense ratings. To predict the score of a game for the home team, take the home team’s offense rating, add half of the home advantage, subtract the visiting team’s defense rating, and add the mean score. Predicting the score is similar for the visiting team. Take the visiting team’s offense rating, subtract half of the home advantage, subtract the home team’s defense rating, and add the mean score. Predicting the margin of victory for a game is done by taking the home team’s rating, adding the home advantage, and subtracting the away team’s rating. For neutral site games, the home advantage is set to zero.
A glitch last week resulted in games last season being weighted a bit more than they should have, but I believe it didn’t shift the ratings very much overall. This week’s ratings weight a game last season at 12% of a game this season, and preseason games are weighted at 24%. Yes, the weights are correct this time. Assuming a team played 17 games last season, three preseason games this summer, and five regular season games in 2025, last season accounts for approximately 26.29% of the team’s rating, the 2025 preseason for 9.28%, and the 2025 regular season for the remaining 64.43%. These are approximate numbers, but it means 2025 regular season games are easily the largest factor in a team’s ratings.
Predictive Ratings
Home advantage: 2.53 points
Mean score: 22.25 points
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
1 10.32 -0.51 Detroit Lions 9.17 1.14
2 +7 7.69 +3.61 Indianapolis Colts 5.72 1.98
3 +11 7.53 +5.32 Houston Texans -2.84 10.36
4 +1 6.92 +1.08 Denver Broncos 0.66 6.29
5 +2 6.03 +0.84 Green Bay Packers 1.99 4.05
6 -3 5.73 -0.65 Philadelphia Eagles 2.08 3.63
7 -3 5.17 -1.11 Seattle Seahawks 3.99 1.16
8 +2 3.68 +0.24 Los Angeles Rams 2.40 1.30
9 +4 3.54 +1.32 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5.23 -1.70
10 -4 3.10 -2.45 Buffalo Bills 4.09 -0.98
11 +1 3.00 -0.24 Minnesota Vikings 1.19 1.82
12 -4 2.98 -1.94 Kansas City Chiefs 1.33 1.70
13 +4 1.91 +2.16 Washington Commanders 3.41 -1.48
14 -12 1.57 -5.20 Baltimore Ravens 7.06 -5.47
15 0.37 -0.66 Pittsburgh Steelers -0.62 0.98
16 +4 0.31 +1.89 Jacksonville Jaguars 0.08 0.25
17 +2 0.07 +0.94 San Francisco 49ers -1.15 1.22
18 -7 -0.11 -3.44 Los Angeles Chargers -2.04 1.95
19 -1 -0.27 +0.05 Chicago Bears 0.00 -0.25
20 -4 -1.23 -1.55 Arizona Cardinals -3.28 2.03
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
21 -2.06 +1.12 New England Patriots -2.02 -0.06
22 +4 -2.43 +1.91 Dallas Cowboys 4.24 -6.65
23 +1 -2.93 +0.88 Atlanta Falcons -4.75 1.81
24 -2 -4.55 -1.31 Miami Dolphins -2.42 -2.15
25 -5.86 -1.78 New York Giants -5.70 -0.17
26 -3 -6.42 -2.81 New York Jets -2.38 -4.03
27 +4 -6.67 +2.96 Tennessee Titans -3.58 -3.10
28 +1 -6.75 +0.14 Cincinnati Bengals -0.79 -5.99
29 -1 -7.07 -0.51 Cleveland Browns -8.55 1.49
30 -7.32 +0.92 New Orleans Saints -4.04 -3.28
31 -4 -7.93 -2.70 Las Vegas Raiders -5.02 -2.88
32 -8.39 +1.56 Carolina Panthers -3.57 -4.83 Schedule Strength
I’ve moved strength of schedule to a new table and added another couple of columns. The first column is the expected losing percentage (1 minus winning percentage) for a hypothetical average NFL team in each team’s games played to date. Larger numbers mean a tougher schedule. The second column is the same thing, just for future games instead of past games.
The third column is the average opponent rating, with an adjustment for the site of games, for previously played games. The fourth column is the average opponent rating for the future games that each team will play. These two columns are the same schedule strength metrics from my previous NFL articles.
In college football, the two approaches to schedule strength would differ more just because the approach used in the first two columns limits the influence of truly lopsided blowout games. In the NFL, there just aren’t that many blowouts, and the teams are more evenly balanced. Therefore, there’s just not too much of a difference in the two approaches to measuring schedule strength.
Schedule Strength for an Average Team
Home advantage: 2.53 points
Mean score: 22.25 points
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
1 Detroit Lions .477 (21) .555 (5) -0.79 (22) 1.81 (5)
2 Indianapolis Colts .439 (28) .533 (9) -2.21 (28) 1.11 (8)
3 Houston Texans .533 (9) .532 (10) 0.99 (9) 1.08 (10)
4 Denver Broncos .515 (13) .466 (25) 0.48 (14) -1.17 (25)
5 Green Bay Packers .518 (11) .523 (14) 0.68 (12) 0.82 (12)
6 Philadelphia Eagles .573 (4) .523 (13) 2.43 (4) 0.74 (16)
7 Seattle Seahawks .461 (25) .535 (7) -1.42 (25) 1.14 (7)
8 Los Angeles Rams .569 (5) .526 (11) 2.36 (5) 0.84 (11)
9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers .567 (6) .437 (27) 2.32 (7) -2.08 (27)
10 Buffalo Bills .345 (32) .468 (23) -5.27 (32) -1.08 (23)
11 Minnesota Vikings .419 (29) .591 (1) -2.83 (29) 3.20 (1)
12 Kansas City Chiefs .526 (10) .536 (6) 0.83 (10) 1.19 (6)
13 Washington Commanders .455 (26) .560 (4) -1.66 (27) 2.03 (4)
14 Baltimore Ravens .588 (3) .450 (26) 2.87 (3) -1.70 (26)
15 Pittsburgh Steelers .498 (17) .488 (19) -0.08 (17) -0.37 (19)
16 Jacksonville Jaguars .463 (24) .522 (15) -1.42 (24) 0.81 (14)
17 San Francisco 49ers .516 (12) .488 (20) 0.63 (13) -0.40 (20)
18 Los Angeles Chargers .473 (23) .533 (8) -0.90 (23) 1.08 (9)
19 Chicago Bears .511 (15) .526 (12) 0.74 (11) 0.81 (13)
20 Arizona Cardinals .391 (30) .572 (2) -3.93 (30) 2.55 (2)
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
21 New England Patriots .389 (31) .389 (32) -3.99 (31) -3.82 (32)
22 Dallas Cowboys .511 (14) .518 (16) 0.35 (15) 0.77 (15)
23 Atlanta Falcons .501 (16) .476 (22) 0.02 (16) -0.89 (22)
24 Miami Dolphins .477 (22) .434 (29) -0.71 (21) -2.27 (29)
25 New York Giants .485 (19) .562 (3) -0.49 (19) 2.25 (3)
26 New York Jets .484 (20) .431 (30) -0.50 (20) -2.44 (31)
27 Tennessee Titans .657 (1) .486 (21) 5.43 (1) -0.46 (21)
28 Cincinnati Bengals .591 (2) .467 (24) 3.20 (2) -1.14 (24)
29 Cleveland Browns .565 (7) .428 (31) 2.33 (6) -2.43 (30)
30 New Orleans Saints .492 (18) .436 (28) -0.26 (18) -2.23 (28)
31 Las Vegas Raiders .554 (8) .515 (17) 1.94 (8) 0.52 (17)
32 Carolina Panthers .454 (27) .498 (18) -1.58 (26) -0.11 (18)NFL Season Simulations
These are based on 20,000 simulations of the NFL season using the results from the first three weeks of the season and these ratings to predict the remaining 13 weeks and the postseason. Tiebreakers for making the postseason are simplified, and the simulations don’t factor in potential issues like injuries, but this is still useful for making an educated guess about the standings at the end of the regular season.
Projected Standings
First up is the projected won-loss records, points scored, and points allowed for each team. The rating column is the team’s overall rating, included as a measure of team strength.
AFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Buffalo Bills 11.29 5.67 0.05 .665 465.81 375.97 3.10
New England Patriots 9.54 7.41 0.05 .563 396.01 352.33 -2.06
Miami Dolphins 6.20 10.74 0.05 .367 364.94 430.63 -4.55
New York Jets 4.74 12.21 0.05 .280 364.66 456.85 -6.42
AFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Pittsburgh Steelers 9.74 7.20 0.05 .575 394.15 386.75 0.37
Baltimore Ravens 8.04 8.92 0.04 .474 501.01 497.45 1.57
Cincinnati Bengals 6.26 10.70 0.05 .370 355.05 493.01 -6.75
Cleveland Browns 5.48 11.46 0.06 .324 262.95 366.23 -7.07
AFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Indianapolis Colts 11.96 4.99 0.05 .705 470.20 318.74 7.69
Houston Texans 9.88 7.04 0.09 .584 333.46 216.34 7.53
Jacksonville Jaguars 9.84 7.11 0.05 .580 383.03 361.20 0.31
Tennessee Titans 5.05 11.90 0.05 .299 287.38 428.92 -6.67
AFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Denver Broncos 11.39 5.55 0.05 .672 393.69 266.94 6.92
Los Angeles Chargers 8.61 8.33 0.06 .508 330.79 343.43 -0.11
Kansas City Chiefs 8.52 8.42 0.05 .503 401.50 361.65 2.98
Las Vegas Raiders 4.57 12.39 0.05 .270 274.19 426.34 -7.93
NFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Philadelphia Eagles 11.45 5.50 0.05 .675 419.89 346.42 5.73
Washington Commanders 8.95 8.00 0.05 .528 439.07 407.06 1.91
Dallas Cowboys 7.00 8.95 1.04 .443 461.48 503.16 -2.43
New York Giants 4.57 12.39 0.05 .270 279.43 413.02 -5.86
NFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Detroit Lions 12.55 4.41 0.04 .739 546.71 383.05 10.32
Green Bay Packers 10.15 5.80 1.05 .628 417.78 331.96 6.03
Minnesota Vikings 8.90 8.05 0.05 .525 401.36 378.54 3.00
Chicago Bears 8.10 8.85 0.05 .478 388.32 418.60 -0.27
NFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11.71 5.25 0.04 .690 477.16 407.20 3.54
Atlanta Falcons 7.78 9.15 0.06 .460 316.99 352.89 -2.93
Carolina Panthers 5.46 11.50 0.04 .322 340.17 454.78 -8.39
New Orleans Saints 5.40 11.55 0.05 .319 327.15 430.58 -7.32
NFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Seattle Seahawks 10.26 6.69 0.05 .605 446.41 357.89 5.17
San Francisco 49ers 10.13 6.82 0.06 .597 350.99 337.00 0.07
Los Angeles Rams 9.86 7.09 0.05 .581 421.13 371.34 3.68
Arizona Cardinals 6.80 10.14 0.06 .402 322.22 358.81 -1.23 Playoff Chances
The next table shows each team’s chances of making the playoffs, winning their division, and having the best record in the conference. The mean playoff seed is an average that uses only the seasons when each team made the playoffs. Div% and Conf% are the probabilities of a team having the best record in their division and conference, respectively.
AFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Buffalo Bills 3.10 .665 92.03% 73.90% 17.83% 3.06
New England Patriots -2.06 .563 60.97% 25.19% 2.50% 4.77
Miami Dolphins -4.55 .367 5.17% 0.85% 0.01% 5.99
New York Jets -6.42 .280 0.71% 0.06% 0.00% 6.37
AFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Pittsburgh Steelers 0.37 .575 76.28% 67.90% 5.76% 3.54
Baltimore Ravens 1.57 .474 36.00% 25.99% 0.23% 4.50
Cincinnati Bengals -6.75 .370 7.02% 4.23% 0.01% 4.94
Cleveland Browns -7.07 .324 3.10% 1.90% 0.01% 4.91
AFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Indianapolis Colts 7.69 .705 96.21% 68.95% 41.69% 2.71
Houston Texans 7.53 .584 76.33% 17.35% 6.88% 4.93
Jacksonville Jaguars 0.31 .580 68.27% 13.69% 4.48% 5.15
Tennessee Titans -6.67 .299 1.10% 0.01% 0.00% 6.48
AFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Denver Broncos 6.92 .672 93.31% 79.22% 17.85% 2.91
Los Angeles Chargers -0.11 .508 43.06% 9.95% 1.54% 5.32
Kansas City Chiefs 2.98 .503 40.06% 10.78% 1.22% 5.29
Las Vegas Raiders -7.93 .270 0.40% 0.06% 0.00% 6.28
NFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Philadelphia Eagles 5.73 .675 91.56% 81.07% 18.28% 2.91
Washington Commanders 1.91 .528 38.96% 15.66% 1.00% 5.00
Dallas Cowboys -2.43 .443 12.49% 3.19% 0.07% 5.67
New York Giants -5.86 .270 0.28% 0.08% 0.00% 5.84
NFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Detroit Lions 10.32 .739 96.56% 75.09% 41.87% 2.55
Green Bay Packers 6.03 .628 78.39% 19.17% 7.67% 4.75
Minnesota Vikings 3.00 .525 36.49% 4.61% 1.15% 5.61
Chicago Bears -0.27 .478 19.30% 1.14% 0.21% 5.95
NFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3.54 .690 96.42% 93.80% 18.05% 2.75
Atlanta Falcons -2.93 .460 19.35% 5.24% 0.17% 5.50
Carolina Panthers -8.39 .322 1.49% 0.49% 0.00% 5.63
New Orleans Saints -7.32 .319 1.04% 0.47% 0.00% 5.41
NFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Seattle Seahawks 5.17 .605 70.56% 38.19% 3.72% 4.36
San Francisco 49ers 0.07 .597 70.00% 33.30% 4.57% 4.48
Los Angeles Rams 3.68 .581 59.46% 27.16% 3.19% 4.65
Arizona Cardinals -1.23 .402 7.66% 1.34% 0.05% 5.86Possible Regular Season Outcomes
To give a range of how good or bad a team’s final record might be, several percentiles are shown for each team’s final winning percentage.
AFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Buffalo Bills .665 95.84% .529 .588 .647 .706 .765
New England Patriots .563 73.50% .412 .471 .588 .647 .706
Miami Dolphins .367 8.74% .235 .294 .353 .412 .471
New York Jets .280 1.08% .176 .235 .294 .353 .412
AFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Pittsburgh Steelers .575 76.85% .471 .529 .588 .647 .706
Baltimore Ravens .474 39.47% .353 .412 .471 .529 .588
Cincinnati Bengals .370 7.85% .235 .294 .353 .412 .471
Cleveland Browns .324 3.53% .176 .235 .294 .412 .471
AFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Indianapolis Colts .705 98.26% .588 .647 .706 .765 .824
Houston Texans .584 81.39% .471 .529 .588 .647 .706
Jacksonville Jaguars .580 79.88% .471 .529 .588 .647 .706
Tennessee Titans .299 1.65% .176 .235 .294 .353 .412
AFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Denver Broncos .672 96.95% .529 .588 .676 .706 .765
Los Angeles Chargers .508 52.34% .412 .441 .529 .588 .647
Kansas City Chiefs .503 50.38% .382 .412 .529 .588 .647
Las Vegas Raiders .270 0.53% .176 .235 .279 .353 .382
NFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Philadelphia Eagles .675 96.80% .529 .588 .676 .765 .765
Washington Commanders .528 60.54% .412 .471 .529 .588 .647
Dallas Cowboys .443 18.77% .324 .382 .441 .500 .559
New York Giants .270 0.73% .176 .235 .294 .353 .412
NFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Detroit Lions .739 99.41% .647 .706 .765 .824 .826
Green Bay Packers .628 85.32% .500 .559 .618 .676 .735
Minnesota Vikings .525 59.34% .412 .471 .529 .588 .647
Chicago Bears .478 40.17% .353 .412 .471 .529 .588
NFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .690 97.80% .588 .647 .706 .765 .824
Atlanta Falcons .460 33.75% .353 .412 .471 .529 .588
Carolina Panthers .322 2.90% .235 .235 .294 .382 .412
New Orleans Saints .319 2.83% .176 .235 .294 .382 .441
NFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Seattle Seahawks .605 85.04% .471 .529 .588 .647 .706
San Francisco 49ers .597 84.25% .471 .529 .588 .647 .706
Los Angeles Rams .581 79.40% .471 .529 .588 .647 .706
Arizona Cardinals .402 14.71% .294 .353 .412 .471 .529Postseason Projections
The final table shows each team’s probability of reaching the playoffs, the divisional round, the conference championship, winning their conference, and winning the Super Bowl.
AFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Buffalo Bills .665 92.03% 59.63% 29.31% 12.31% 4.96%
New England Patriots .563 60.97% 22.32% 6.65% 2.12% 0.57%
Miami Dolphins .367 5.17% 1.32% 0.29% 0.12% 0.03%
New York Jets .280 0.71% 0.12% 0.04% 0.02% 0.01%
AFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Pittsburgh Steelers .575 76.28% 39.26% 14.64% 5.41% 1.88%
Baltimore Ravens .474 36.00% 17.39% 6.12% 2.50% 0.92%
Cincinnati Bengals .370 7.02% 1.94% 0.33% 0.09% 0.03%
Cleveland Browns .324 3.10% 0.78% 0.13% 0.03% 0.00%
AFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Indianapolis Colts .705 96.21% 77.08% 50.51% 28.80% 15.41%
Houston Texans .584 76.33% 47.34% 26.09% 15.86% 8.43%
Jacksonville Jaguars .580 68.27% 28.25% 9.86% 3.67% 1.22%
Tennessee Titans .299 1.10% 0.23% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Denver Broncos .672 93.31% 68.48% 42.20% 23.21% 11.94%
Los Angeles Chargers .508 43.06% 17.04% 5.83% 2.37% 0.72%
Kansas City Chiefs .503 40.06% 18.74% 7.96% 3.52% 1.40%
Las Vegas Raiders .270 0.40% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Philadelphia Eagles .675 91.56% 63.91% 34.73% 16.20% 8.18%
Washington Commanders .528 38.96% 16.99% 6.30% 2.46% 1.02%
Dallas Cowboys .443 12.49% 3.60% 0.92% 0.31% 0.10%
New York Giants .270 0.28% 0.07% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00%
NFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Detroit Lions .739 96.56% 79.66% 56.53% 36.17% 22.36%
Green Bay Packers .628 78.39% 43.58% 21.16% 11.25% 5.85%
Minnesota Vikings .525 36.49% 15.15% 5.71% 2.76% 1.17%
Chicago Bears .478 19.30% 6.17% 1.68% 0.59% 0.21%
NFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .690 96.42% 62.83% 29.95% 12.00% 5.51%
Atlanta Falcons .460 19.35% 5.41% 1.23% 0.36% 0.08%
Carolina Panthers .322 1.49% 0.26% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00%
New Orleans Saints .319 1.04% 0.25% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Seattle Seahawks .605 70.56% 40.17% 18.49% 8.85% 4.21%
San Francisco 49ers .597 70.00% 29.16% 9.66% 3.14% 1.19%
Los Angeles Rams .581 59.46% 30.33% 12.91% 5.70% 2.50%
Arizona Cardinals .402 7.66% 2.45% 0.65% 0.21% 0.10%“Major Playoff Implications”
I’m going to discuss the biggest story in detail, which is poor start for the Ravens, then take a quick look at why the Texans, Colts, and Chargers also had big moves in the ratings this week. The Jaguars could also be a big story in coming weeks since the AFC South looks to be a three team race.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens dropped 12 spots, and I want to examine a few of the factors. Being 1-4 is a shocking turn of events given Baltimore’s preseason projections, but their rating hadn’t plummeted until this week. One factor is the changing weights as games played this season are influencing the ratings more, and there are more games this season now to influence the ratings. But the ratings are heavily influenced by point differential, and theirs dropped from -2 to -36 in the span of a week. The Ravens’ would have dropped quite a bit farther in the ratings were it not for the effects of a strong 2024 season and that they’ve played the third toughest schedule in the NFL to date this season. To get an idea of the relative influence of these factors, I also ran the ratings without any influence of games from 2024, though it still includes the 2025 preseason at its current weighting. Here are the ratings, where the change and move are relative to the ratings that include 2024 games.
Predictive Ratings - Only 2025 Games
Home advantage: 2.99 points
Mean score: 22.37 points
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
1 +1 12.46 +4.77 Indianapolis Colts 8.13 4.31
2 +1 10.72 +3.20 Houston Texans -4.20 14.93
3 +1 8.81 +1.89 Denver Broncos 1.49 7.31
4 -3 7.75 -2.57 Detroit Lions 7.76 -0.01
5 +3 6.56 +2.88 Los Angeles Rams 5.05 1.50
6 +1 5.69 +0.52 Seattle Seahawks 4.54 1.10
7 -1 4.68 -1.05 Philadelphia Eagles 0.78 3.89
8 -3 4.57 -1.45 Green Bay Packers -0.20 4.80
9 +7 3.53 +3.22 Jacksonville Jaguars 2.61 0.94
10 +2 2.98 -0.01 Kansas City Chiefs 1.09 1.89
11 -2 2.91 -0.63 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6.24 -3.35
12 +5 2.38 +2.31 San Francisco 49ers -1.26 3.65
13 -2 1.15 -1.85 Minnesota Vikings 0.52 0.62
14 +7 0.50 +2.56 New England Patriots 0.08 0.44
15 -2 0.39 -1.52 Washington Commanders 2.83 -2.47
16 -1 0.08 -0.28 Pittsburgh Steelers -0.19 0.29
17 +1 -0.59 -0.49 Los Angeles Chargers -2.62 2.03
18 -8 -0.78 -3.87 Buffalo Bills 1.01 -1.82
19 +1 -1.57 -0.34 Arizona Cardinals -3.97 2.41
20 +2 -1.72 +0.71 Dallas Cowboys 5.92 -7.69
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
21 -7 -2.03 -3.60 Baltimore Ravens 7.47 -9.52
22 -3 -2.05 -1.78 Chicago Bears 0.67 -2.75
23 -4.10 -1.17 Atlanta Falcons -7.03 2.91
24 +3 -4.86 +1.81 Tennessee Titans -2.28 -2.59
25 +7 -5.53 +2.85 Carolina Panthers -2.51 -3.00
26 -2 -5.61 -1.06 Miami Dolphins -2.59 -2.98
27 -2 -5.66 +0.20 New York Giants -5.34 -0.36
28 +1 -6.93 +0.14 Cleveland Browns -9.10 2.18
29 +2 -7.24 +0.69 Las Vegas Raiders -5.24 -2.01
30 -8.64 -1.32 New Orleans Saints -4.01 -4.65
31 -3 -8.83 -2.08 Cincinnati Bengals -2.43 -6.42
32 -6 -8.84 -2.42 New York Jets -3.23 -5.59 The Ravens drop seven spots when I leave out last season’s games and the rating drops 3.60 points, but that’s despite an increase in the offense rating of 0.39 points. Their offense is putting up plenty of points, but using only games from this season shows just how bad their defense has been. I tend to think this might be a better indication of the quality of the Ravens right now, and that the ratings including 2024 games might not be as representative of the Ravens’ quality at this point in 2025. Going back a quarter century, I only found two examples in my ratings of an offense roughly as potent as Baltimore’s and a defense that allows points at least as prolifically: the 2001 Indianapolis Colts and the 2000 St. Louis Rams.
Predictive Ratings - 2000 NFL Season
Home advantage: 3.09 points
Mean score: 20.44 points
Rank Rating Team Offense Defense
1 11.91 Baltimore Ravens 1.08 10.78
2 10.07 Oakland Raiders 7.47 2.64
3 8.78 Tennessee Titans 2.05 6.71
4 6.93 Indianapolis Colts 6.98 -0.06
5 5.89 Miami Dolphins -1.05 6.95
6 5.38 Pittsburgh Steelers 1.60 3.80
7 4.98 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1.92 3.04
8 4.51 Philadelphia Eagles 0.85 3.61
9 4.42 Denver Broncos 7.05 -2.60
10 4.07 New York Giants -0.17 4.22
11 2.95 St. Louis Rams 12.85 -9.91
12 2.50 New York Jets 0.81 1.69
13 1.88 Washington Redskins -2.14 4.01
14 1.86 Green Bay Packers 1.60 0.25
15 1.43 Jacksonville Jaguars 3.25 -1.87
16 0.56 Minnesota Vikings 3.46 -2.91
17 0.52 Detroit Lions -0.76 1.26
18 0.01 Kansas City Chiefs -0.26 0.31
19 -0.02 Buffalo Bills 0.71 -0.73
20 -0.25 New Orleans Saints -1.52 1.25
Rank Rating Team Offense Defense
21 -1.54 Carolina Panthers -3.62 2.05
22 -3.26 New England Patriots -2.91 -0.33
23 -3.90 Seattle Seahawks -1.23 -2.68
24 -3.99 San Francisco 49ers 1.65 -5.63
25 -4.51 Dallas Cowboys -1.64 -2.90
26 -7.08 Chicago Bears -6.88 -0.19
27 -7.91 San Diego Chargers -3.23 -4.67
28 -8.97 Atlanta Falcons -5.79 -3.17
29 -9.06 Cincinnati Bengals -7.07 -1.98
30 -13.55 Cleveland Browns -8.42 -5.18
31 -14.55 Arizona Cardinals -6.81 -7.75
Predictive Ratings - 2001 NFL Season
Home advantage: 2.51 points
Mean score: 19.65 points
Rank Rating Team Offense Defense
1 13.88 St. Louis Rams 10.75 3.11
2 9.88 Philadelphia Eagles 3.12 6.82
3 7.02 Pittsburgh Steelers 1.54 5.46
4 6.68 Chicago Bears 1.28 5.38
5 6.01 Green Bay Packers 4.07 1.91
6 5.78 San Francisco 49ers 3.22 2.53
7 5.65 New England Patriots 1.56 4.09
8 4.38 Oakland Raiders 4.06 0.31
9 3.70 Baltimore Ravens -0.76 4.44
10 2.97 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.00 2.98
11 1.76 Miami Dolphins -1.17 2.92
12 0.60 New York Jets -1.66 2.26
13 0.27 Jacksonville Jaguars -1.40 1.67
14 0.15 San Diego Chargers 0.72 -0.57
15 -0.43 Denver Broncos 0.60 -1.02
16 -0.85 Cleveland Browns -1.38 0.46
17 -1.30 Kansas City Chiefs -0.43 -0.84
18 -1.56 Seattle Seahawks -1.32 -0.20
19 -1.69 New York Giants -1.93 0.26
20 -2.45 Tennessee Titans 2.17 -4.65
Rank Rating Team Offense Defense
21 -3.36 Cincinnati Bengals -4.57 1.23
22 -3.45 Washington Redskins -4.17 0.69
23 -3.52 Arizona Cardinals -1.10 -2.43
24 -3.59 Indianapolis Colts 6.13 -9.71
25 -4.35 Atlanta Falcons -2.38 -1.93
26 -4.98 New Orleans Saints -0.12 -4.89
27 -5.39 Minnesota Vikings -1.35 -4.05
28 -5.61 Dallas Cowboys -4.66 -0.99
29 -7.80 Detroit Lions -2.40 -5.46
30 -8.99 Carolina Panthers -4.67 -4.24
31 -9.37 Buffalo Bills -3.84 -5.54 Those Colts and Rams teams both had explosive offenses, led by Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner, respectively. The 1999 Rams were almost as potent offensively as the 2000 team, but they had a solid defense to go along with the offensive firepower that season. Following the 2000 season, the Rams overhauled their defense, made it a strength again, and were dominant in the 2001 regular season. But the 2000 Rams barely made the playoffs at 10-6 and had serious defensive woes. The Colts weren’t quite as explosive on offense as the Greatest Show on Turf-era Rams, but they still managed to be one of most prolific offenses that period while having competent defenses in 1999 and 2000. Then their defense fell apart in 2001 despite still scoring plenty of points, and they missed the playoffs at 6-10.
These teams seem to be the best comparisons to the 2025 Ravens in the past quarter century, so the question is whether these Ravens are more similar to the 2000 Rams or the 2001 Colts. The Rams of that era didn’t just have a strong offense, it was a dominant offense with the top offense rating in the league each season from 1999-2001. The 1999 team had the lowest offense rating of the three seasons at 9.12, with a 3.36 defense rating. The Colts had one of the top offenses in the league, but there’s a clear statistical difference between their offense, which was good, but not quite on the level of the Rams’ offense of that era. Because the 2000 Rams had such a prolific offense, they were able to overcome the ineptness of their defense and make the playoffs despite their issues. The 2025 Ravens have a very good offense, among the top three or four offenses in the NFL, but it’s not dominant in the same way those Rams offenses were. Unfortunately for the 2025 Ravens, the 2001 Colts appear to be a closer comparison than the 2000 Rams.
The Ravens do have a much easier schedule the rest of the way, so I expect they’ll pick up at least a few more wins this season. The playoff predictions using just the 2025 data project an average final record of 7.05-9.95-0.05, which can be rounded to a 7-10 finish. With the effect of 2024 games included, the projections have the Ravens finishing around 8-9, which is plausible if the defense can improve a bit. I tend to favor the 7-10 record, however, at least based on how the Ravens look right now.
One detail I left out is that the 2000 Rams actually started the season 6-0, then lost Kurt Warner to an injury for a few games in a loss against the Chiefs. They had a very good backup in Trent Green, but the offense just wasn’t the same, and the Rams went 2-3 with Green at quarterback. That should sound a bit familiar about the 2025 Ravens in that if they’re going come back from their 1-4 start, they absolutely need Lamar Jackson to get healthy and play well the rest of the season.
Houston Texans
Prior to this past weekend, the Ravens had a fairly healthy point differential and were ranked #2 in the predictive ratings. Then the Texans won by 34 points over the Ravens, which was an unexpected result with the potential to shift the ratings. Although the Texans don’t score a lot of points, they have a somewhat dominant defense, and shutting down the Ravens looks impressive to the rating system. They’ve allowed the fewest points, which seems to be a combination of pace of play and also having a very strong defense, even if it’s not quite as elite as my ratings might suggest. While I wouldn’t be surprised to see some correction in the ratings after this big jump, it sure looks like the Texans are quite a bit better than their 2-3 record indicates. They now have a +47 point differential, which is third best in the NFL. That might be exaggerated a bit by the result of the game against the Ravens, but they do appear to have a good chance of making the playoffs and contending in the AFC South.
Indianapolis Colts
Unlike the Texans, who have played the ninth toughest schedule in the NFL to date according to my ratings, the Colts have only played the #28 schedule so far. They have a much tougher schedule going forward. But the weak strength of schedule to date partially balances out the Colts’ +74 point differential, which is the best in the NFL. Although the Colts won by 34 points, it was against the Raiders, who are ranked at #31. Still, the Colts’ move up in the ratings appears to be the result of their improving point differential on the season despite doing it against a weak schedule.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have two good wins to date, against the Chiefs and Broncos, but both were one score games. Although they won by 11 points visiting the Raiders, it’s not as impressive of a win considering that the Raiders are ranked #21 in the predictive ratings. Losing to the Giants wasn’t a good result, but the 17 point loss to the Commanders means the Chargers have a point differential of zero. They’ve played the #23 ranked schedule in the league, which is not doing much to offset their decline in point differential over the last two games. This decline is mostly about the point differential, but the Chargers play a tougher schedule the rest of the way, which can help their rating if their point differential improves.
Week 6 Game Predictions
The thresholds for close games, blowouts, and high and low scoring games are different in the NFL than in college football. That’s because NFL teams are balanced enough in talent to usually avoid truly lopsided scores and there’s just less scoring overall.
Games are ranked based on the projected quality. This factors in the overall strength of the two teams and the potential for a competitive game. Game quality ratings are not directly comparable between college football and the NFL for many of the same reasons I just mentioned. This is just for predicting which NFL games are most and least compelling each weekend.
#1: Detroit Lions (4.81, 64.34%) at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.81, 35.24%), Tie (0.42%)
Estimated score: 28.46 - 23.70, Total: 52.16
Quality: 89.35%, Team quality: 87.17%, Competitiveness: 93.89%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.73%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.19%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 42.01%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 8.65%
#2: Los Angeles Rams (-0.42, 48.49%) at Baltimore Ravens (0.42, 51.06%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 28.85 - 29.28, Total: 58.13
Quality: 78.28%, Team quality: 69.27%, Competitiveness: 99.95%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 18.73%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 18.40%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 58.81%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 3.69%
#3: Seattle Seahawks (2.33, 56.96%) at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.33, 42.60%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 24.73 - 22.43, Total: 47.16
Quality: 77.84%, Team quality: 69.18%, Competitiveness: 98.53%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 19.43%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 18.12%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 28.85%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 15.70%
#4: San Francisco 49ers (-6.00, 31.88%) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6.00, 67.72%), Tie (0.40%)
Estimated score: 21.54 - 27.52, Total: 49.06
Quality: 67.32%, Team quality: 58.02%, Competitiveness: 90.65%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 23.37%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 16.55%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 33.64%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 12.66%
#5: Chicago Bears (-4.71, 35.53%) at Washington Commanders (4.71, 64.05%), Tie (0.42%)
Estimated score: 22.47 - 27.18, Total: 49.64
Quality: 64.13%, Team quality: 52.93%, Competitiveness: 94.14%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.61%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.24%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 35.16%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 11.83%
#6: Buffalo Bills (3.50, 60.48%) at Atlanta Falcons (-3.50, 39.09%), Tie (0.43%)
Estimated score: 23.27 - 19.75, Total: 43.02
Quality: 61.37%, Team quality: 48.88%, Competitiveness: 96.72%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 20.32%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.76%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 19.71%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 23.81%
#7: Arizona Cardinals (-11.45, 18.57%) at Indianapolis Colts (11.45, 81.13%), Tie (0.30%)
Estimated score: 15.73 - 27.20, Total: 42.93
Quality: 59.62%, Team quality: 55.05%, Competitiveness: 69.94%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 34.69%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 12.50%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 19.53%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 24.00%
#8: Philadelphia Eagles (9.06, 75.74%) at New York Giants (-9.06, 23.91%), Tie (0.35%)
Estimated score: 23.24 - 14.19, Total: 37.43
Quality: 49.53%, Team quality: 38.99%, Competitiveness: 79.92%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 29.05%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 14.44%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 10.57%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 37.65%
#9: Los Angeles Chargers (1.91, 55.68%) at Miami Dolphins (-1.91, 43.88%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 21.09 - 19.15, Total: 40.24
Quality: 46.98%, Team quality: 32.37%, Competitiveness: 99.01%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 19.19%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 18.21%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 14.70%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 30.32%
#10: Denver Broncos (10.82, 79.79%) at New York Jets (-10.82, 19.90%), Tie (0.31%)
Estimated score: 25.68 - 14.85, Total: 40.52
Quality: 46.56%, Team quality: 37.27%, Competitiveness: 72.65%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 33.12%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 13.02%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 15.16%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 29.64%
#11: New England Patriots (2.74, 58.20%) at New Orleans Saints (-2.74, 41.36%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 22.25 - 19.53, Total: 41.79
Quality: 31.58%, Team quality: 17.93%, Competitiveness: 97.97%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 19.70%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 18.01%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 17.37%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 26.60%
#12: Cincinnati Bengals (-15.31, 11.63%) at Green Bay Packers (15.31, 88.15%), Tie (0.22%)
Estimated score: 16.15 - 31.50, Total: 47.65
Quality: 31.11%, Team quality: 23.89%, Competitiveness: 52.74%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 45.38%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 9.21%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 30.05%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 14.88%
#13: Cleveland Browns (-9.97, 21.80%) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9.97, 77.87%), Tie (0.33%)
Estimated score: 11.45 - 21.40, Total: 32.85
Quality: 29.68%, Team quality: 18.51%, Competitiveness: 76.27%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 31.07%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 13.72%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 5.76%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 50.44%
#14: Dallas Cowboys (3.43, 60.28%) at Carolina Panthers (-3.43, 39.29%), Tie (0.43%)
Estimated score: 30.05 - 26.60, Total: 56.65
Quality: 27.11%, Team quality: 14.35%, Competitiveness: 96.84%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 20.26%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.78%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 54.68%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 4.63%
#15: Tennessee Titans (-1.27, 45.87%) at Las Vegas Raiders (1.27, 53.69%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 20.29 - 21.59, Total: 41.88
Quality: 18.58%, Team quality: 8.03%, Competitiveness: 99.56%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 18.92%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 18.32%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 17.53%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 26.39%Beside each team, there are two numbers in parentheses. One is the predicted margin of victory (positive) or defeat (negative), the other is the probability of winning. In the event that a margin is larger than what’s indicated by the predicted score, that’s because there’s nothing in the math that prevents a forecast of negative points with a sufficiently lopsided matchup. This isn’t even close to possible with the current NFL ratings, even with the weakest offense against the strongest defense, but it does occur once in awhile in college football. A negative score is impossible, of course, so the score would be set to zero in those instances. However, there’s no upper limit on how many points a team can be projected to score. But with more parity between NFL teams, even the highest scoring predictions aren’t going to be nearly as crazy as what is possible with the college football ratings.
Thanks for reading!
The ratings in this article are based on standings and past game logs from Pro Football Reference.