NFL Week 18 Computer Ratings and Predictions
What do the computer ratings say about the AFC North and NFC South playoff races?
Happy new year! In the next few days, I’ll post about some of the new projects I’m working on this year related to sports, science, and some other topics of interest to me. For the moment, let’s talk about week 18 of the NFL season.
Last week, I discussed four races with teams still looking to clinch playoff bids. Two of those have been decided, and two will be determined by games played this weekend. Due to the simplified nature of the tiebreakers in my NFL simulator, the probabilities in those two races are not accurate this late in the season. Let’s go through both races, both of which are much simpler than my discussion last week.
For the Ravens, it’s easy. Win and you’re in. Anything else and the Steelers reach the playoffs while the Ravens go home. My predictions give the Ravens a 47.96% chance of winning, and that’s also their chance of reaching the playoffs. For the Steelers, they need a win or a tie, and they have a 52.04% chance of one of these results. If this game was in Baltimore, my prediction system would give the edge to the Ravens. But the Steelers are slight favorites to win the game and the AFC North.
The scenario in the NFC South is a bit more complicated, with the Buccaneers and Panthers competing to win the division and reach the playoffs. The Panthers can reach the playoffs with a win or a tie, and they have a 38.27% chance of this according to my system. However, if the Panthers lose, they can still reach the playoffs with a win by the Falcons over the Saints. The probability of a Buccaneers win is 61.73%, and the probability of a Falcons win is 63.22%. The combination of these two events should happen 39.03% of the time, assuming the outcome of the Panthers-Buccaneers game is independent of the Saints-Falcons game. Add this to the 38.27% chance of the Panthers winning their game and the division outright, and their overall playoff chance is 77.30%. That means the Buccaneers have a 22.70% chance of reaching the playoffs according to my ratings and projections.
Overachievers and Underachievers
A few weeks ago, I calculated each team’s expected winning percentage based on their rating and schedule, then I compared it to their actual winning percentage. It’s a lot like the strength of record ratings I use in college football, but I use each team’s actual rating as the benchmark instead of a hypothetical team with a rating 1.5 standard deviations above the FBS mean. Because it’s so similar to strength of record, the column name is TeamSOR.
This statistic shows which teams have overachieved or underachieved the most based on their rating and schedule. Because of how this is calculated, a team’s rating really needs to be well above or below zero for it to be significant. I suggest a threshold of around +.100 to consider a team as overachieving and -.100 to consider a team an underachiever. Subjectively, I view the Panthers as the biggest overachiever this season because they began last in the ratings, and my simulator gave them very little chance to make the playoffs. But that’s not where they rank in my table.
Strength of Record for Each Team's Rating
Rank TeamSOR Team Win% Predictive
1 .189 Denver Broncos .812 3.01 (11)
2 .135 San Francisco 49ers .750 5.59 (5)
3 .127 Chicago Bears .688 1.04 (16)
4 .116 Los Angeles Chargers .688 1.37 (15)
5 .106 Carolina Panthers .500 -3.63 (22)
6 .096 Jacksonville Jaguars .750 7.27 (4)
7 .084 Philadelphia Eagles .688 3.85 (10)
8 .084 New England Patriots .812 4.86 (6)
9 .048 Houston Texans .688 7.47 (3)
10 .041 Pittsburgh Steelers .562 0.50 (17)
11 .040 Buffalo Bills .688 4.17 (8)
12 .036 Seattle Seahawks .812 12.14 (1)
13 .026 Miami Dolphins .438 -5.44 (27)
14 .019 Green Bay Packers .594 1.73 (13)
15 .006 Dallas Cowboys .469 -3.03 (21)
16 .002 Minnesota Vikings .500 0.28 (18)
17 .001 Cincinnati Bengals .375 -4.40 (24)
18 .001 Atlanta Falcons .438 -2.16 (20)
19 -.001 Tampa Bay Buccaneers .438 -1.29 (19)
20 -.008 New Orleans Saints .375 -5.03 (26)
Rank TeamSOR Team Win% Predictive
21 -.048 Los Angeles Rams .688 11.96 (2)
22 -.049 New York Jets .188 -11.30 (31)
23 -.052 Baltimore Ravens .500 1.64 (14)
24 -.071 Tennessee Titans .188 -7.03 (29)
25 -.078 Cleveland Browns .250 -7.51 (30)
26 -.080 Washington Commanders .250 -6.53 (28)
27 -.082 Las Vegas Raiders .125 -11.32 (32)
28 -.084 Indianapolis Colts .500 4.45 (7)
29 -.115 Detroit Lions .500 4.05 (9)
30 -.123 Arizona Cardinals .188 -4.83 (25)
31 -.179 Kansas City Chiefs .375 2.46 (12)
32 -.187 New York Giants .188 -4.33 (23) The numbers in this table measure something a bit different than my subjective concept of underachieving and overachieving, instead estimating which teams have records that are better or worse than their current predictive ratings would suggest. And although the Panthers have overachieved, they’re not at the top. That title goes to the Broncos, and it’s not really that close with a 13-3 record despite being ranked #11 according to the predictive ratings. At the other end of the ratings are two major disappointments, the Lions and the Chiefs. The Lions looked like one of the best teams in the league at the start of the season, and they’re still ranked #9 in the predictive ratings. But the Chiefs are perhaps more interesting, having overachieved the past two seasons with outstanding records and mediocre point differentials. I wrote in the preseason that I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chiefs missed the playoffs, but then they actually had a good point differential for most of the season. Even now, it’s +36 despite their 6-10 record. It’s a complete reversal from the previous two seasons.
The Colts have also underachieved, having a +62 point differential against one of the toughest schedules in the league, but going just 8-8 through the first 17 weeks of the season. At one point earlier in the season, the Colts and Texans had the two highest predictive ratings in the NFL, and the Texans looked like one of the most underachieving teams with a good point differential and lackluster record. At the time, I wondered if the Texans were for real, but I expected the Colts to win their division. Instead, the Texans went on an eight game winning streak and continued to play outstanding defense while the Colts lost six straight and collapsed.
Anyway, let’s get to the predictive and schedule strength ratings.
Predictive Ratings
These are forward looking ratings, meaning that they’re intended to evaluate how good a team is and predict its future success, but they don’t evaluate the quality of a team’s achievements earlier in the season. These ratings are based purely on points. They don’t factor in wins and losses, only the margin of victory. The ratings don’t explicitly calculate the strength of schedule, though I calculate this afterwards. However, because of how the ratings are calculated, the quality of opponents does influence the ratings.
The offense and defense columns refer to each team’s point scoring tendencies instead of the efficiency ratings that some other rating systems use. The overall rating is approximately the sum of a team’s offense and defense ratings. To predict the score of a game for the home team, take the home team’s offense rating, add half of the home advantage, subtract the visiting team’s defense rating, and add the mean score. Predicting the score is similar for the visiting team. Take the visiting team’s offense rating, subtract half of the home advantage, subtract the home team’s defense rating, and add the mean score. Predicting the margin of victory for a game is done by taking the home team’s rating, adding the home advantage, and subtracting the away team’s rating. For neutral site games, the home advantage is set to zero.
Predictive Ratings
Home advantage: 1.76 points
Mean score: 22.49 points
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
1 +1 12.14 -0.28 Seattle Seahawks 6.62 5.51
2 -1 11.96 -1.24 Los Angeles Rams 7.63 4.32
3 7.47 -0.54 Houston Texans 0.02 7.44
4 7.27 -0.05 Jacksonville Jaguars 4.25 3.00
5 5.59 -0.26 San Francisco 49ers 4.38 1.20
6 +4 4.86 +1.33 New England Patriots 3.11 1.74
7 -1 4.45 -0.57 Indianapolis Colts 4.72 -0.27
8 4.17 +0.19 Buffalo Bills 4.69 -0.54
9 -2 4.05 -0.75 Detroit Lions 5.56 -1.48
10 -1 3.85 +0.13 Philadelphia Eagles -1.60 5.44
11 +2 3.01 +0.33 Denver Broncos 0.31 2.74
12 -1 2.46 -0.38 Kansas City Chiefs -1.36 3.79
13 -1 1.73 -0.97 Green Bay Packers 0.16 1.57
14 +3 1.64 +1.38 Baltimore Ravens 1.63 0.00
15 -1 1.37 -0.07 Los Angeles Chargers -0.17 1.56
16 1.04 +0.26 Chicago Bears 2.88 -1.80
17 -2 0.50 -0.33 Pittsburgh Steelers -0.25 0.73
18 0.28 +1.10 Minnesota Vikings -3.14 3.42
19 -1.29 -0.35 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.27 -1.57
20 -2.16 +0.90 Atlanta Falcons -1.94 -0.24
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
21 +2 -3.03 +0.24 Dallas Cowboys 4.95 -7.95
22 -3.63 -0.40 Carolina Panthers -4.79 1.15
23 +2 -4.33 +1.35 New York Giants -1.20 -3.12
24 +2 -4.40 +1.52 Cincinnati Bengals 1.73 -6.13
25 -4 -4.83 -1.77 Arizona Cardinals -1.77 -3.09
26 -2 -5.03 +0.49 New Orleans Saints -5.35 0.32
27 -5.44 +0.63 Miami Dolphins -3.45 -2.04
28 +1 -6.53 -0.16 Washington Commanders -2.80 -3.74
29 -1 -7.03 -0.72 Tennessee Titans -3.74 -3.27
30 -7.51 +0.93 Cleveland Browns -7.83 0.30
31 +1 -11.30 -0.67 New York Jets -5.25 -6.02
32 -1 -11.32 -1.37 Las Vegas Raiders -8.27 -3.07 Schedule Strength
The first column is the expected losing percentage (1 minus winning percentage) for a hypothetical average NFL team in each team’s games played to date. Larger numbers mean a tougher schedule. The second column is the same thing, just for future games instead of past games.
The third column is the average opponent rating, with an adjustment for the site of games, for previously played games. The fourth column is the average opponent rating for the future games that each team will play. These two columns are the same schedule strength metrics from my previous NFL articles.
In college football, the two approaches to schedule strength would differ more just because the approach used in the first two columns limits the influence of truly lopsided blowout games. In the NFL, there just aren’t that many blowouts, and the teams are more evenly balanced. Therefore, there’s just not too much of a difference in the two approaches to measuring schedule strength.
Schedule Strength for an Average Team
Home advantage: 1.76 points
Mean score: 22.49 points
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
1 Seattle Seahawks .520 (10) .707 (5) 0.88 (9) 7.34 (5)
2 Los Angeles Rams .573 (1) .313 (25) 2.73 (1) -6.58 (25)
3 Houston Texans .550 (4) .579 (11) 1.86 (4) 2.69 (11)
4 Jacksonville Jaguars .532 (5) .258 (29) 1.11 (7) -8.79 (29)
5 San Francisco 49ers .526 (8) .779 (2) 1.20 (5) 10.38 (2)
6 New England Patriots .391 (32) .297 (27) -4.02 (32) -7.20 (27)
7 Indianapolis Colts .529 (6) .753 (3) 1.11 (8) 9.22 (3)
8 Buffalo Bills .463 (28) .168 (32) -1.29 (27) -13.06 (32)
9 Detroit Lions .495 (19) .582 (10) -0.10 (18) 2.80 (10)
10 Philadelphia Eagles .501 (17) .270 (28) -0.02 (17) -8.28 (28)
11 Denver Broncos .454 (30) .489 (19) -1.76 (30) -0.39 (19)
12 Kansas City Chiefs .513 (11) .239 (31) 0.37 (13) -9.57 (31)
13 Green Bay Packers .474 (23) .560 (14) -0.92 (23) 2.03 (14)
14 Baltimore Ravens .493 (20) .567 (13) -0.35 (22) 2.26 (13)
15 Los Angeles Chargers .466 (27) .638 (9) -1.30 (28) 4.76 (9)
16 Chicago Bears .467 (26) .568 (12) -1.19 (26) 2.29 (12)
17 Pittsburgh Steelers .492 (21) .497 (18) -0.30 (20) -0.11 (18)
18 Minnesota Vikings .510 (13) .499 (17) 0.44 (12) -0.02 (17)
19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers .528 (7) .345 (24) 1.12 (6) -5.39 (24)
20 Atlanta Falcons .506 (16) .307 (26) 0.25 (14) -6.79 (26)
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
21 Dallas Cowboys .454 (29) .424 (21) -1.68 (29) -2.57 (21)
22 Carolina Panthers .511 (12) .514 (16) 0.47 (11) 0.46 (16)
23 New York Giants .507 (14) .361 (23) 0.20 (15) -4.78 (23)
24 Cincinnati Bengals .506 (15) .246 (30) 0.10 (16) -9.27 (30)
25 Arizona Cardinals .569 (3) .844 (1) 2.61 (2) 13.72 (1)
26 New Orleans Saints .487 (22) .488 (20) -0.32 (21) -0.41 (20)
27 Miami Dolphins .440 (31) .688 (6) -2.22 (31) 6.62 (6)
28 Washington Commanders .495 (18) .661 (8) -0.23 (19) 5.61 (8)
29 Tennessee Titans .570 (2) .748 (4) 2.52 (3) 9.03 (4)
30 Cleveland Browns .472 (25) .422 (22) -1.06 (25) -2.64 (22)
31 New York Jets .473 (24) .670 (7) -0.95 (24) 5.92 (7)
32 Las Vegas Raiders .522 (9) .521 (15) 0.73 (10) 0.70 (15) Simulating the NFL Season
I debated whether to include the simulation results in this article because the simplified tiebreakers mean that the playoff chances for the remaining races aren’t especially accurate. Still, the predicted final records and the predictions for the postseason have enough value to justify posting the simulation results. However, if you want to know which teams are likely to reach the playoffs in the remaining two races, look to the first section of this article instead of the simulation results.
This season simulation is based on games and computer ratings through December 29, 2025. The season was simulated 20,000 times, and the results of the simulations have been aggregated to predict final records and playoff chances. Tiebreakers for making the postseason are simplified, and the simulations don’t factor in potential issues like injuries, but this is still useful for making an educated guess about the standings at the end of the regular season.
Projected Standings
First up is the projected won-loss records, points scored, and points allowed for each team. The rating column is the team’s overall rating, included as a measure of team strength.
AFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
New England Patriots 13.80 3.20 0.00 .812 480.57 326.55 4.86
Buffalo Bills 11.88 5.12 0.00 .699 480.11 374.23 4.17
Miami Dolphins 7.20 9.80 0.00 .423 353.55 414.57 -5.44
New York Jets 3.12 13.88 0.00 .183 309.23 502.11 -11.30
AFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Pittsburgh Steelers 9.52 7.48 0.00 .560 394.16 385.49 0.50
Baltimore Ravens 8.48 8.52 0.00 .499 422.49 395.16 1.64
Cincinnati Bengals 6.63 10.36 0.00 .390 420.86 491.94 -4.40
Cleveland Browns 4.36 12.63 0.00 .257 278.94 385.86 -7.51
AFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Houston Texans 11.63 5.36 0.00 .684 389.81 283.99 7.47
Jacksonville Jaguars 12.87 4.13 0.00 .757 464.06 344.24 7.27
Indianapolis Colts 8.36 8.63 0.00 .492 454.99 397.81 4.45
Tennessee Titans 3.13 13.87 0.00 .184 292.24 468.06 -7.03
AFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Denver Broncos 13.60 3.40 0.00 .800 404.22 326.80 3.01
Los Angeles Chargers 11.40 5.60 0.00 .671 383.80 343.22 1.37
Kansas City Chiefs 6.80 10.20 0.01 .400 373.34 325.98 2.46
Las Vegas Raiders 2.20 14.80 0.01 .129 238.98 443.34 -11.32
NFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Philadelphia Eagles 11.80 5.20 0.00 .694 387.53 314.88 3.85
Dallas Cowboys 7.49 8.50 1.00 .470 483.77 507.00 -3.03
New York Giants 3.50 13.49 0.00 .206 377.00 451.77 -4.33
Washington Commanders 4.20 12.80 0.00 .247 345.88 459.53 -6.53
NFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Green Bay Packers 9.49 6.50 1.01 .588 406.62 362.82 1.73
Chicago Bears 11.46 5.53 0.00 .674 452.71 424.93 1.04
Detroit Lions 8.53 8.46 0.00 .502 490.93 424.71 4.05
Minnesota Vikings 8.50 8.49 0.01 .500 346.82 348.62 0.28
NFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7.61 9.38 0.01 .448 386.59 415.52 -1.29
Carolina Panthers 8.38 8.61 0.01 .493 315.52 386.59 -3.63
Atlanta Falcons 7.62 9.38 0.01 .448 355.09 400.72 -2.16
New Orleans Saints 6.38 10.62 0.01 .375 305.72 385.09 -5.03
NFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Seattle Seahawks 13.63 3.37 0.00 .802 497.09 311.31 12.14
Los Angeles Rams 11.90 5.10 0.00 .700 515.06 341.81 11.96
San Francisco 49ers 12.37 4.63 0.00 .728 456.31 385.09 5.59
Arizona Cardinals 3.10 13.90 0.00 .182 350.81 485.06 -4.83 Playoff Chances
The next table shows each team’s chances of making the playoffs, winning their division, and having the best record in the conference. The mean playoff seed is an average that uses only the seasons when each team made the playoffs. Div% and Conf% are the probabilities of a team having the best record in their division and conference, respectively. For the remaining playoff races, the simplified tiebreakers make the probabilities unreliable.
AFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
New England Patriots 4.86 .812 100.00% 100.00% 81.31% 1.29
Buffalo Bills 4.17 .699 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.72
Miami Dolphins -5.44 .423 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
New York Jets -11.30 .183 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
AFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Pittsburgh Steelers 0.50 .560 65.30% 65.30% 0.00% 4.00
Baltimore Ravens 1.64 .499 34.71% 34.71% 0.00% 4.00
Cincinnati Bengals -4.40 .390 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
Cleveland Browns -7.51 .257 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
AFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Houston Texans 7.47 .684 100.00% 8.33% 0.00% 5.31
Jacksonville Jaguars 7.27 .757 100.00% 91.67% 7.07% 2.65
Indianapolis Colts 4.45 .492 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
Tennessee Titans -7.03 .184 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
AFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Denver Broncos 3.01 .800 100.00% 100.00% 11.62% 2.23
Los Angeles Chargers 1.37 .671 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.80
Kansas City Chiefs 2.46 .400 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
Las Vegas Raiders -11.32 .129 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
NFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Philadelphia Eagles 3.85 .694 100.00% 100.00% 0.00% 2.57
Dallas Cowboys -3.03 .470 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
New York Giants -4.33 .206 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
Washington Commanders -6.53 .247 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
NFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Green Bay Packers 1.73 .588 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.00
Chicago Bears 1.04 .674 100.00% 100.00% 0.00% 2.43
Detroit Lions 4.05 .502 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
Minnesota Vikings 0.28 .500 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
NFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.29 .448 53.14% 53.14% 0.00% 4.00
Carolina Panthers -3.63 .493 46.86% 46.86% 0.00% 4.00
Atlanta Falcons -2.16 .448 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
New Orleans Saints -5.03 .375 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
NFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Seattle Seahawks 12.14 .802 100.00% 63.24% 63.24% 2.47
Los Angeles Rams 11.96 .700 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.43
San Francisco 49ers 5.59 .728 100.00% 36.76% 36.76% 4.09
Arizona Cardinals -4.83 .182 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--Possible Regular Season Outcomes
To give a range of how good or bad a team’s final record might be, several percentiles are shown for each team’s final winning percentage.
AFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
New England Patriots .812 100.00% .765 .824 .824 .824 .824
Buffalo Bills .699 100.00% .647 .706 .706 .706 .706
Miami Dolphins .423 0.00% .412 .412 .412 .412 .471
New York Jets .183 0.00% .176 .176 .176 .176 .235
AFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Pittsburgh Steelers .560 100.00% .529 .529 .588 .588 .588
Baltimore Ravens .499 47.55% .471 .471 .471 .529 .529
Cincinnati Bengals .390 0.00% .353 .353 .412 .412 .412
Cleveland Browns .257 0.00% .235 .235 .235 .294 .294
AFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Houston Texans .684 100.00% .647 .647 .706 .706 .706
Jacksonville Jaguars .757 100.00% .706 .765 .765 .765 .765
Indianapolis Colts .492 36.38% .471 .471 .471 .529 .529
Tennessee Titans .184 0.00% .176 .176 .176 .176 .235
AFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Denver Broncos .800 100.00% .765 .765 .824 .824 .824
Los Angeles Chargers .671 100.00% .647 .647 .647 .706 .706
Kansas City Chiefs .400 0.00% .353 .412 .412 .412 .412
Las Vegas Raiders .129 0.00% .118 .118 .118 .118 .176
NFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Philadelphia Eagles .694 100.00% .647 .706 .706 .706 .706
Dallas Cowboys .470 0.00% .441 .441 .441 .500 .500
New York Giants .206 0.00% .176 .176 .235 .235 .235
Washington Commanders .247 0.00% .235 .235 .235 .235 .294
NFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Green Bay Packers .588 100.00% .559 .559 .559 .618 .618
Chicago Bears .674 100.00% .647 .647 .647 .706 .706
Detroit Lions .502 53.35% .471 .471 .529 .529 .529
Minnesota Vikings .500 50.23% .471 .471 .529 .529 .529
NFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .448 0.00% .412 .412 .471 .471 .471
Carolina Panthers .493 38.30% .471 .471 .471 .529 .529
Atlanta Falcons .448 0.00% .412 .412 .471 .471 .471
New Orleans Saints .375 0.00% .353 .353 .353 .412 .412
NFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Seattle Seahawks .802 100.00% .765 .765 .824 .824 .824
Los Angeles Rams .700 100.00% .706 .706 .706 .706 .706
San Francisco 49ers .728 100.00% .706 .706 .706 .765 .765
Arizona Cardinals .182 0.00% .176 .176 .176 .176 .176Postseason Projections
The final table shows each team’s probability of reaching the playoffs, the divisional round, the conference championship, winning their conference, and winning the Super Bowl.
AFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
New England Patriots .812 100.00% 91.86% 52.59% 23.65% 9.09%
Buffalo Bills .699 100.00% 45.11% 19.65% 9.84% 3.36%
Miami Dolphins .423 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
New York Jets .183 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Pittsburgh Steelers .560 65.30% 25.50% 8.74% 3.46% 0.94%
Baltimore Ravens .499 34.71% 14.88% 5.63% 2.50% 0.73%
Cincinnati Bengals .390 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cleveland Browns .257 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Houston Texans .684 100.00% 57.76% 31.11% 18.81% 8.46%
Jacksonville Jaguars .757 100.00% 65.29% 39.98% 23.10% 10.05%
Indianapolis Colts .492 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Tennessee Titans .184 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Denver Broncos .800 100.00% 61.82% 28.39% 12.55% 4.23%
Los Angeles Chargers .671 100.00% 37.79% 13.91% 6.08% 1.81%
Kansas City Chiefs .400 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Las Vegas Raiders .129 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Philadelphia Eagles .694 100.00% 50.32% 24.32% 8.52% 3.92%
Dallas Cowboys .470 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
New York Giants .206 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Washington Commanders .247 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Green Bay Packers .588 100.00% 43.64% 11.41% 3.69% 1.54%
Chicago Bears .674 100.00% 45.59% 17.72% 4.72% 1.84%
Detroit Lions .502 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Minnesota Vikings .500 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .448 53.14% 11.94% 3.56% 0.95% 0.28%
Carolina Panthers .493 46.86% 8.27% 1.84% 0.40% 0.12%
Atlanta Falcons .448 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
New Orleans Saints .375 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Seattle Seahawks .802 100.00% 92.87% 64.83% 40.19% 27.48%
Los Angeles Rams .700 100.00% 76.14% 46.02% 29.14% 19.98%
San Francisco 49ers .728 100.00% 71.23% 30.29% 12.38% 6.17%
Arizona Cardinals .182 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Week 18 Game Predictions
And here are the predictions for the final weekend of the NFL regular season.
The thresholds for close games, blowouts, and high and low scoring games are different in the NFL than in college football. That’s because NFL teams are balanced enough in talent to usually avoid truly lopsided scores and there’s just less scoring overall.
Games are ranked based on the projected quality. This factors in the overall strength of the two teams and the potential for a competitive game. Game quality ratings are not directly comparable between college football and the NFL for many of the same reasons I just mentioned. This is just for predicting which NFL games are most and least compelling each weekend.
Beside each team, there are two numbers in parentheses. One is the predicted margin of victory (positive) or defeat (negative), the other is the probability of winning. In the event that a margin is larger than what’s indicated by the predicted score, that’s because there’s nothing in the math that prevents a forecast of negative points with a sufficiently lopsided matchup. This isn’t even close to possible with the current NFL ratings, even with the weakest offense against the strongest defense, but it does occur once in awhile in college football. A negative score is impossible, of course, so the score would be set to zero in those instances. However, there’s no upper limit on how many points a team can be projected to score. But with more parity between NFL teams, even the highest scoring predictions aren’t going to be nearly as crazy as what is possible with the college football ratings.
#1: Seattle Seahawks (4.79, 63.69%) at San Francisco 49ers (-4.79, 35.89%), Tie (0.42%)
Estimated score: 27.03 - 22.23, Total: 49.26
Quality: 92.62%, Team quality: 91.76%, Competitiveness: 94.38%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 23.95%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 16.53%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 31.80%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 12.68%
#2: Indianapolis Colts (-4.78, 35.94%) at Houston Texans (4.78, 63.64%), Tie (0.42%)
Estimated score: 18.89 - 23.66, Total: 42.55
Quality: 85.97%, Team quality: 82.03%, Competitiveness: 94.42%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 23.93%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 16.53%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 17.24%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 25.13%
#3: Detroit Lions (1.25, 53.47%) at Chicago Bears (-1.25, 46.09%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 28.96 - 27.72, Total: 56.68
Quality: 76.18%, Team quality: 66.62%, Competitiveness: 99.61%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.36%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.55%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 51.91%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 4.82%
#4: Los Angeles Chargers (-3.40, 39.83%) at Denver Broncos (3.40, 59.74%), Tie (0.43%)
Estimated score: 18.70 - 22.12, Total: 40.82
Quality: 72.87%, Team quality: 63.11%, Competitiveness: 97.14%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 22.57%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.07%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 14.33%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 29.13%
#5: Baltimore Ravens (-0.61, 47.96%) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0.61, 51.60%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 22.51 - 23.11, Total: 45.62
Quality: 68.90%, Team quality: 57.22%, Competitiveness: 99.91%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.21%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.61%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 23.31%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 18.77%
#6: Green Bay Packers (-0.30, 48.89%) at Minnesota Vikings (0.30, 50.66%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 18.34 - 18.66, Total: 37.00
Quality: 68.59%, Team quality: 56.81%, Competitiveness: 99.98%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.18%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.63%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 9.11%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 38.94%
#7: Carolina Panthers (-4.09, 37.84%) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4.09, 61.73%), Tie (0.43%)
Estimated score: 18.39 - 22.48, Total: 40.87
Quality: 46.37%, Team quality: 32.25%, Competitiveness: 95.87%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 23.21%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 16.82%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 14.41%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 29.01%
#8: Miami Dolphins (-12.06, 18.50%) at New England Patriots (12.06, 81.20%), Tie (0.30%)
Estimated score: 16.41 - 28.51, Total: 44.93
Quality: 43.35%, Team quality: 34.24%, Competitiveness: 69.49%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 37.51%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 11.74%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 21.84%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 20.11%
#9: Dallas Cowboys (-0.46, 48.43%) at New York Giants (0.46, 51.13%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 29.68 - 30.12, Total: 59.80
Quality: 41.23%, Team quality: 26.48%, Competitiveness: 99.95%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.19%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.62%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 60.52%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 2.99%
#10: Arizona Cardinals (-18.55, 8.61%) at Los Angeles Rams (18.55, 91.22%), Tie (0.17%)
Estimated score: 15.52 - 34.08, Total: 49.60
Quality: 41.05%, Team quality: 40.31%, Competitiveness: 42.59%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 55.16%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 6.84%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 32.66%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 12.18%
#11: New Orleans Saints (-4.63, 36.36%) at Atlanta Falcons (4.63, 63.22%), Tie (0.42%)
Estimated score: 16.50 - 21.11, Total: 37.61
Quality: 39.40%, Team quality: 25.40%, Competitiveness: 94.76%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 23.76%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 16.60%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 9.83%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 37.31%
#12: Washington Commanders (-12.14, 18.35%) at Philadelphia Eagles (12.14, 81.35%), Tie (0.30%)
Estimated score: 13.37 - 25.51, Total: 38.87
Quality: 38.31%, Team quality: 28.51%, Competitiveness: 69.17%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 37.70%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 11.68%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 11.46%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 34.00%
#13: Tennessee Titans (-16.06, 11.77%) at Jacksonville Jaguars (16.06, 88.02%), Tie (0.22%)
Estimated score: 14.87 - 30.89, Total: 45.76
Quality: 34.93%, Team quality: 28.46%, Competitiveness: 52.61%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 48.12%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 8.63%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 23.60%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 18.52%
#14: Cleveland Browns (-4.87, 35.67%) at Cincinnati Bengals (4.87, 63.91%), Tie (0.42%)
Estimated score: 19.90 - 24.80, Total: 44.70
Quality: 26.95%, Team quality: 14.41%, Competitiveness: 94.21%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 24.04%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 16.49%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 21.38%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 20.56%
#15: Kansas City Chiefs (12.03, 81.14%) at Las Vegas Raiders (-12.03, 18.57%), Tie (0.30%)
Estimated score: 23.32 - 11.30, Total: 34.62
Quality: 25.03%, Team quality: 15.01%, Competitiveness: 69.63%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 37.43%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 11.77%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 6.67%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 45.46%
#16: New York Jets (-17.22, 10.20%) at Buffalo Bills (17.22, 89.61%), Tie (0.19%)
Estimated score: 16.90 - 34.07, Total: 50.98
Quality: 19.31%, Team quality: 12.27%, Competitiveness: 47.82%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 51.40%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 7.77%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 36.21%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 10.34%Happy new year! Thanks for reading!
The ratings in this article are based on data from Pro Football Reference.