NFL Team Ratings, Week 3 Game Predictions, and Playoff Chances
Now that 2025 regular season games account for roughly a third of each team's rating, how does that impact where the teams are ranked?
Here are the updated NFL ratings after the week 2 games as well an updated simulation of the 2025 season and the playoffs. Each game last season is weighted at 18% of the impact of a 2025 regular season game. Preseason games in 2025 are weighted at 36% each. This is slowly being decreased each week until eventually the ratings will be based only on 2025 regular season games. For a team that played 17 games last season and three preseason games, it means that the two games this season account for approximately 32.57% of a team's rating, the preseason for 17.59%, and last season for approximately 49.84% of the rating. This varies a bit depending on other factors applied to the weighting of each game, but it shows that last season is the biggest factor in these ratings, but the 2025 regular season still accounts for roughly a third of a team's rating at this point.
The Ratings
Here are the updated ratings following week 2 games. The strength of schedule column is an average of a team's opponents' ratings in games they have already played, with a small adjustment for the site of the game to account for home field advantage. The future strength of schedule is the same, just that it's only for games a team hasn't yet played. Offense and defense are not efficiencies, meaning that they don't account for pace of play. They are used to estimate whether a team has a tendency to score or allow a lot of points in games and are used to predict the actual scores of games.
Overall Ratings
Home advantage: 1.53 points
Mean score: 22.05 points
Rank Rating Team Offense Defense SOS Future SOS
1 11.90 Baltimore Ravens 10.24 1.67 1.04 (13) -0.47 (22)
2 8.06 Detroit Lions 7.74 0.34 2.43 (8) 1.16 (7)
3 7.91 Green Bay Packers 2.76 5.12 2.70 (7) 0.08 (16)
4 7.53 Buffalo Bills 7.51 0.02 3.84 (4) -2.66 (32)
5 5.53 Denver Broncos 1.55 3.94 -1.40 (24) -0.06 (18)
6 5.42 Philadelphia Eagles 1.78 3.64 -1.00 (20) 1.62 (4)
7 4.87 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3.31 1.52 2.20 (9) -1.90 (30)
8 4.17 Los Angeles Chargers 1.13 3.06 -1.81 (25) -0.45 (21)
9 3.95 Indianapolis Colts 3.37 0.55 -1.11 (22) -0.91 (23)
10 2.95 Seattle Seahawks 0.01 2.89 -0.35 (17) -1.02 (25)
11 2.48 Los Angeles Rams 0.98 1.51 -2.39 (28) 1.09 (8)
12 1.96 Houston Texans -3.36 5.35 3.68 (5) 0.74 (11)
13 0.98 Kansas City Chiefs 0.49 0.51 4.79 (2) 1.34 (5)
14 0.39 Washington Commanders 1.27 -0.91 2.18 (10) 0.72 (12)
15 0.06 San Francisco 49ers 0.68 -0.63 0.00 (16) -1.40 (27)
16 -0.55 Cincinnati Bengals 3.40 -3.94 -5.15 (30) 1.66 (3)
17 -0.62 Arizona Cardinals -1.66 1.02 -9.32 (32) 1.03 (9)
18 -0.62 Atlanta Falcons -2.03 1.42 2.01 (11) -1.94 (31)
19 -0.75 Pittsburgh Steelers 0.27 -1.00 -0.63 (18) 1.82 (2)
20 -0.86 Minnesota Vikings -1.99 1.21 -1.84 (27) 2.80 (1)
Rank Rating Team Offense Defense SOS Future SOS
21 -2.98 Dallas Cowboys 1.88 -4.85 0.94 (14) 0.32 (13)
22 -3.05 Chicago Bears -0.39 -2.63 3.60 (6) 1.23 (6)
23 -3.55 New York Giants -2.49 -1.08 0.23 (15) 0.86 (10)
24 -4.21 New York Jets -2.01 -2.19 1.86 (12) -1.54 (28)
25 -4.60 Las Vegas Raiders -5.08 0.46 -0.92 (19) 0.05 (17)
26 -4.70 Miami Dolphins -3.41 -1.29 -1.02 (21) -0.37 (20)
27 -4.85 Jacksonville Jaguars -3.20 -1.65 -6.59 (31) 0.24 (14)
28 -5.46 Cleveland Browns -5.94 0.50 5.67 (1) 0.11 (15)
29 -6.00 New Orleans Saints -4.36 -1.66 -1.81 (26) -1.83 (29)
30 -6.00 New England Patriots -2.68 -3.32 -4.65 (29) -1.28 (26)
31 -6.75 Tennessee Titans -3.95 -2.79 4.01 (3) -0.93 (24)
32 -12.64 Carolina Panthers -5.84 -6.79 -1.21 (23) -0.13 (19)Week 3 Game Predictions
#1: Detroit Lions (-5.36, 33.49%) at Baltimore Ravens (5.36, 66.11%), Tie (0.41%)
Estimated score: 27.36 - 32.72, Total: 60.09
Quality: 94.31%, Team quality: 95.38%, Competitiveness: 92.21%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 22.38%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 22.57%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 64.48%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 2.40%
#2: Denver Broncos (-0.16, 49.27%) at Los Angeles Chargers (0.16, 50.29%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 19.77 - 20.02, Total: 39.79
Quality: 87.71%, Team quality: 82.15%, Competitiveness: 99.99%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 18.64%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 24.65%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 13.34%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 31.01%
#3: Los Angeles Rams (-4.47, 36.08%) at Philadelphia Eagles (4.47, 63.50%), Tie (0.42%)
Estimated score: 18.64 - 23.08, Total: 41.72
Quality: 80.54%, Team quality: 74.34%, Competitiveness: 94.53%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.25%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 23.19%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 16.61%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 26.22%
#4: Arizona Cardinals (-2.21, 42.89%) at San Francisco 49ers (2.21, 56.67%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 20.26 - 22.48, Total: 42.74
Quality: 60.35%, Team quality: 47.20%, Competitiveness: 98.63%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 19.28%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 24.29%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 18.53%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 23.86%
#5: Cincinnati Bengals (-1.22, 45.95%) at Minnesota Vikings (1.22, 53.61%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 23.48 - 24.77, Total: 48.25
Quality: 58.20%, Team quality: 44.49%, Competitiveness: 99.58%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 18.84%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 24.54%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 31.12%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 13.27%
#6: Kansas City Chiefs (3.00, 59.10%) at New York Giants (-3.00, 40.47%), Tie (0.43%)
Estimated score: 22.86 - 19.81, Total: 42.67
Quality: 53.18%, Team quality: 39.28%, Competitiveness: 97.49%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 19.82%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 23.98%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 18.40%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 24.00%
#7: Houston Texans (5.28, 65.88%) at Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.28, 33.72%), Tie (0.41%)
Estimated score: 19.58 - 14.27, Total: 33.85
Quality: 49.25%, Team quality: 35.95%, Competitiveness: 92.43%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 22.27%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 22.63%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 6.13%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 47.53%
#8: Green Bay Packers (11.84, 82.12%) at Cleveland Browns (-11.84, 17.60%), Tie (0.29%)
Estimated score: 23.54 - 11.76, Total: 35.30
Quality: 48.57%, Team quality: 41.25%, Competitiveness: 67.34%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 35.66%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 16.06%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 7.52%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 43.32%
#9: New York Jets (-10.61, 20.18%) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10.61, 79.51%), Tie (0.31%)
Estimated score: 17.76 - 28.32, Total: 46.08
Quality: 47.58%, Team quality: 38.46%, Competitiveness: 72.81%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 32.54%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 17.47%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 25.74%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 16.98%
#10: Miami Dolphins (-13.76, 14.03%) at Buffalo Bills (13.76, 85.72%), Tie (0.24%)
Estimated score: 17.86 - 31.61, Total: 49.47
Quality: 43.54%, Team quality: 37.53%, Competitiveness: 58.61%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 40.93%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 13.85%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 34.33%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 11.45%
#11: Las Vegas Raiders (-6.52, 30.27%) at Washington Commanders (6.52, 69.34%), Tie (0.39%)
Estimated score: 17.11 - 23.63, Total: 40.74
Quality: 43.14%, Team quality: 30.08%, Competitiveness: 88.72%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 24.11%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 21.64%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 14.90%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 28.59%
#12: Dallas Cowboys (-1.46, 45.21%) at Chicago Bears (1.46, 54.34%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 25.79 - 27.28, Total: 53.07
Quality: 42.87%, Team quality: 28.15%, Competitiveness: 99.40%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 18.92%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 24.49%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 44.40%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 7.14%
#13: Indianapolis Colts (9.17, 76.21%) at Tennessee Titans (-9.17, 23.45%), Tie (0.34%)
Estimated score: 27.46 - 18.32, Total: 45.78
Quality: 41.85%, Team quality: 30.49%, Competitiveness: 78.87%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 29.22%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 19.04%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 25.04%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 17.54%
#14: Pittsburgh Steelers (3.72, 61.28%) at New England Patriots (-3.72, 38.30%), Tie (0.43%)
Estimated score: 24.88 - 21.14, Total: 46.02
Quality: 39.04%, Team quality: 24.87%, Competitiveness: 96.18%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 20.45%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 23.63%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 25.60%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 17.09%
#15: New Orleans Saints (-10.47, 20.47%) at Seattle Seahawks (10.47, 79.22%), Tie (0.31%)
Estimated score: 14.04 - 24.49, Total: 38.53
Quality: 38.14%, Team quality: 27.49%, Competitiveness: 73.38%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 32.22%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 17.62%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 11.45%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 34.33%
#16: Atlanta Falcons (10.49, 79.25%) at Carolina Panthers (-10.49, 20.44%), Tie (0.31%)
Estimated score: 26.06 - 15.56, Total: 41.62
Quality: 15.18%, Team quality: 6.91%, Competitiveness: 73.33%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 32.25%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 17.60%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 16.43%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 26.45%The thresholds for close games, blowouts, and high and low scoring games are different in the NFL than in college football. That's because NFL teams are balanced enough in talent to usually avoid truly lopsided scores and there's just less scoring overall.
Games are ranked based on the projected quality. This factors in the overall strength of the two teams and the potential for a competitive game. Game quality ratings are not directly comparable between college football and the NFL for many of the same reasons I just mentioned. This is just for predicting which NFL games are most and least compelling each weekend.
Beside each team, there are two numbers in parentheses. One is the predicted margin of victory (positive) or defeat (negative), the other is the probability of winning. In the event that a margin is larger than what's indicated by the predicted score, that's because there's nothing in the math that prevents a forecast of negative points with a sufficiently lopsided matchup. This isn't even close to possible with the current NFL ratings, even with the weakest offense against the strongest defense, but it does occur once in awhile in college football. A negative score is impossible, of course, so the score would be set to zero in those instances. However, there's no upper limit on how many points a team can be projected to score. But with more parity between NFL teams, even the highest scoring predictions aren’t going to be nearly as crazy as what is possible with the college football ratings.
Season Simulations
The tables are based on 20,000 simulations of the NFL season using the results from the first two weeks of the season, then simulating the remainder of the season using the team ratings. The postseason is also simulated to estimate each team's chances of advancing through each round of the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.
First up is the projected won-loss records, points scored, and points allowed for each team. The rating column is the team's overall rating, included as a measure of team strength.
AFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Buffalo Bills 13.38 3.57 0.05 .788 527.00 354.49 7.53
New England Patriots 6.69 10.26 0.06 .395 355.50 427.60 -6.00
New York Jets 6.51 10.43 0.06 .385 362.03 423.36 -4.21
Miami Dolphins 5.76 11.18 0.06 .340 330.77 425.76 -4.70
AFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Baltimore Ravens 13.07 3.89 0.04 .770 571.60 364.03 11.90
Cincinnati Bengals 8.63 8.31 0.06 .509 426.83 455.31 -0.55
Pittsburgh Steelers 7.47 9.47 0.06 .441 387.63 438.53 -0.75
Cleveland Browns 5.28 11.66 0.06 .312 288.07 394.61 -5.46
AFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Indianapolis Colts 11.45 5.49 0.06 .675 431.81 334.66 3.95
Houston Texans 7.97 8.95 0.08 .471 305.68 294.72 1.96
Jacksonville Jaguars 6.38 10.55 0.07 .377 322.06 384.23 -4.85
Tennessee Titans 5.09 11.85 0.06 .301 294.34 401.53 -6.75
AFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Los Angeles Chargers 11.40 5.54 0.06 .672 389.70 304.86 4.17
Denver Broncos 10.71 6.22 0.06 .632 395.75 307.45 5.53
Kansas City Chiefs 7.36 9.58 0.06 .435 369.71 383.61 0.98
Las Vegas Raiders 6.61 10.32 0.07 .391 279.96 350.99 -4.60
NFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Philadelphia Eagles 11.04 5.90 0.06 .651 395.70 332.09 5.42
Washington Commanders 8.34 8.60 0.06 .492 382.68 381.23 0.39
Dallas Cowboys 7.11 9.84 0.05 .420 413.65 464.21 -2.98
New York Giants 5.67 11.27 0.06 .335 331.07 415.01 -3.55
NFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Green Bay Packers 12.48 4.47 0.05 .735 433.79 296.20 7.91
Detroit Lions 11.19 5.76 0.05 .660 508.34 389.26 8.06
Minnesota Vikings 7.02 9.92 0.06 .415 326.74 392.17 -0.86
Chicago Bears 5.80 11.15 0.06 .343 365.52 463.56 -3.05
NFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12.02 4.92 0.05 .709 437.59 334.22 4.87
Atlanta Falcons 8.96 7.97 0.06 .529 360.05 328.13 -0.62
New Orleans Saints 5.84 11.10 0.06 .345 315.93 388.59 -6.00
Carolina Panthers 2.93 14.03 0.04 .173 279.66 484.45 -12.64
NFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
San Francisco 49ers 10.04 6.90 0.06 .592 383.58 352.55 0.06
Seattle Seahawks 10.05 6.88 0.07 .593 374.31 307.26 2.95
Los Angeles Rams 10.04 6.90 0.06 .592 387.03 347.35 2.48
Arizona Cardinals 8.76 8.18 0.07 .517 345.62 357.71 -0.62 The next table shows each team's chances of making the playoffs, winning their division, and having the best record in the conference. The mean playoff seed is an average that uses only the seasons when each team made the playoffs. Div% and Conf% are the probabilities of a team having the best record in their division and conference, respectively.
AFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Buffalo Bills 7.53 .788 99.73% 99.00% 49.11% 1.88
New England Patriots -6.00 .395 13.64% 0.58% 0.01% 6.26
New York Jets -4.21 .385 12.08% 0.22% 0.01% 6.25
Miami Dolphins -4.70 .340 6.05% 0.19% 0.01% 6.34
AFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Baltimore Ravens 11.90 .770 99.67% 95.52% 28.81% 2.27
Cincinnati Bengals -0.55 .509 53.40% 3.36% 0.44% 5.81
Pittsburgh Steelers -0.75 .441 30.29% 1.09% 0.07% 6.06
Cleveland Browns -5.46 .312 4.13% 0.04% 0.00% 6.50
AFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Indianapolis Colts 3.95 .675 95.25% 85.75% 9.21% 3.33
Houston Texans 1.96 .471 43.86% 11.33% 0.21% 5.52
Jacksonville Jaguars -4.85 .377 11.78% 2.34% 0.01% 5.84
Tennessee Titans -6.75 .301 3.81% 0.59% 0.00% 6.06
AFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Los Angeles Chargers 4.17 .672 93.86% 56.36% 8.56% 3.83
Denver Broncos 5.53 .632 89.28% 40.19% 3.48% 4.43
Kansas City Chiefs 0.98 .435 28.82% 2.73% 0.07% 5.95
Las Vegas Raiders -4.60 .391 14.34% 0.71% 0.01% 6.19
NFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Philadelphia Eagles 5.42 .651 87.08% 78.86% 11.57% 3.19
Washington Commanders 0.39 .492 32.10% 15.12% 0.46% 4.96
Dallas Cowboys -2.98 .420 12.22% 4.79% 0.06% 5.32
New York Giants -3.55 .335 2.96% 1.23% 0.01% 5.42
NFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Green Bay Packers 7.91 .735 96.67% 72.10% 38.53% 2.68
Detroit Lions 8.06 .660 86.50% 26.93% 12.35% 4.40
Minnesota Vikings -0.86 .415 9.59% 0.85% 0.09% 6.03
Chicago Bears -3.05 .343 2.33% 0.11% 0.00% 6.34
NFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4.87 .709 95.36% 88.17% 22.63% 2.68
Atlanta Falcons -0.62 .529 43.38% 11.20% 1.14% 5.31
New Orleans Saints -6.00 .345 2.60% 0.62% 0.00% 5.89
Carolina Panthers -12.64 .173 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 6.40
NFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
San Francisco 49ers 0.06 .592 64.55% 29.02% 3.84% 4.59
Seattle Seahawks 2.95 .593 64.09% 28.89% 3.80% 4.60
Los Angeles Rams 2.48 .592 63.57% 30.30% 4.31% 4.49
Arizona Cardinals -0.62 .517 36.98% 11.79% 1.21% 5.18To give a range of how good or bad a team's final record might be, several percentiles are shown for each team's final winning percentage.
AFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Buffalo Bills .788 99.76% .647 .706 .794 .882 .882
New England Patriots .395 15.06% .235 .324 .412 .471 .529
New York Jets .385 13.58% .235 .294 .412 .471 .529
Miami Dolphins .340 6.61% .206 .294 .353 .412 .471
AFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Baltimore Ravens .770 99.73% .647 .706 .765 .824 .882
Cincinnati Bengals .509 52.36% .353 .412 .529 .588 .647
Pittsburgh Steelers .441 28.11% .294 .353 .441 .529 .588
Cleveland Browns .312 3.66% .176 .235 .294 .382 .471
AFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Indianapolis Colts .675 94.55% .529 .588 .676 .765 .824
Houston Texans .471 38.91% .353 .412 .471 .529 .588
Jacksonville Jaguars .377 12.31% .235 .294 .353 .471 .529
Tennessee Titans .301 3.06% .176 .235 .294 .353 .412
AFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Los Angeles Chargers .672 93.88% .529 .588 .647 .765 .824
Denver Broncos .632 89.07% .471 .588 .647 .706 .765
Kansas City Chiefs .435 27.19% .294 .353 .412 .529 .588
Las Vegas Raiders .391 14.52% .235 .294 .412 .471 .529
NFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Philadelphia Eagles .651 91.90% .529 .588 .647 .706 .765
Washington Commanders .492 46.62% .353 .412 .471 .588 .647
Dallas Cowboys .420 22.25% .294 .353 .412 .471 .559
New York Giants .335 6.09% .176 .235 .353 .412 .471
NFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Green Bay Packers .735 98.73% .588 .647 .765 .824 .882
Detroit Lions .660 93.56% .529 .588 .647 .706 .765
Minnesota Vikings .415 20.67% .294 .353 .412 .471 .529
Chicago Bears .343 6.61% .235 .294 .353 .412 .471
NFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .709 97.95% .588 .647 .706 .765 .824
Atlanta Falcons .529 60.06% .412 .471 .529 .588 .647
New Orleans Saints .345 6.80% .235 .294 .353 .412 .471
Carolina Panthers .173 0.04% .059 .118 .176 .235 .294
NFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
San Francisco 49ers .592 79.94% .471 .529 .588 .647 .706
Seattle Seahawks .593 80.21% .471 .529 .588 .647 .706
Los Angeles Rams .592 79.72% .471 .529 .588 .647 .706
Arizona Cardinals .517 55.01% .353 .441 .529 .588 .647The final table shows each team's probability of reaching the playoffs, the divisional round, the conference championship, winning their conference, and winning the Super Bowl.
AFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Buffalo Bills .788 99.73% 85.69% 53.45% 24.80% 13.56%
New England Patriots .395 13.64% 2.44% 0.35% 0.06% 0.01%
New York Jets .385 12.08% 2.34% 0.36% 0.10% 0.02%
Miami Dolphins .340 6.05% 1.13% 0.18% 0.03% 0.01%
AFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Baltimore Ravens .770 99.67% 86.74% 62.94% 42.20% 28.10%
Cincinnati Bengals .509 53.40% 15.03% 3.62% 1.08% 0.29%
Pittsburgh Steelers .441 30.29% 8.25% 2.07% 0.67% 0.24%
Cleveland Browns .312 4.13% 0.61% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00%
AFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Indianapolis Colts .675 95.25% 60.17% 24.00% 9.38% 4.01%
Houston Texans .471 43.86% 16.68% 5.05% 1.95% 0.73%
Jacksonville Jaguars .377 11.78% 2.65% 0.41% 0.07% 0.03%
Tennessee Titans .301 3.81% 0.69% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
AFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Los Angeles Chargers .672 93.86% 54.68% 22.60% 8.89% 3.98%
Denver Broncos .632 89.28% 50.95% 21.70% 9.66% 4.81%
Kansas City Chiefs .435 28.82% 9.23% 2.69% 0.97% 0.34%
Las Vegas Raiders .391 14.34% 2.71% 0.46% 0.11% 0.02%
NFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Philadelphia Eagles .651 87.08% 56.83% 30.28% 15.23% 6.42%
Washington Commanders .492 32.10% 12.95% 4.50% 1.66% 0.51%
Dallas Cowboys .420 12.22% 3.37% 0.91% 0.24% 0.06%
New York Giants .335 2.96% 0.78% 0.17% 0.03% 0.01%
NFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Green Bay Packers .735 96.67% 76.19% 48.41% 27.70% 14.00%
Detroit Lions .660 86.50% 57.09% 33.70% 20.84% 10.21%
Minnesota Vikings .415 9.59% 3.21% 0.98% 0.34% 0.09%
Chicago Bears .343 2.33% 0.66% 0.14% 0.04% 0.02%
NFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .709 95.36% 65.98% 34.82% 16.08% 6.59%
Atlanta Falcons .529 43.38% 15.72% 4.93% 1.60% 0.43%
New Orleans Saints .345 2.60% 0.60% 0.13% 0.02% 0.00%
Carolina Panthers .173 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
San Francisco 49ers .592 64.55% 27.27% 9.58% 3.36% 1.09%
Seattle Seahawks .593 64.09% 33.01% 13.63% 5.83% 2.18%
Los Angeles Rams .592 63.57% 32.22% 13.22% 5.59% 1.80%
Arizona Cardinals .517 36.98% 14.10% 4.58% 1.43% 0.44%I’ll update these predictions each week as the season progresses, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty this early in the season. Every team but one is given a nonzero probability of winning the Super Bowl due to it being early in the season and more uncertainty about the actual strength of the teams with only one regular season game per team at this point.
Thanks for reading!
These ratings and predictions are based on data from Pro Football Reference.