NFL Team Ratings and Week 5 Game Predictions
Picks for all the NFL games this weekend starting with tonight's 49ers-Rams game.
Week 5 of the NFL season starts this evening when the 49ers visit the Rams. Will the scene in that photo be a preview of what to expect this evening? An NBC Sports article earlier this week made it sound like SoFi Stadium tends to be overrun with visiting fans at times, especially when the 49ers visit Los Angeles. Although I try to mostly stick to data-driven analysis in my articles, and I am fully aware that tonight’s game is in Los Angeles, the photo at the top of this article seems like a bit of appropriate trolling for the situation. I’m sure Sean McVay hopes that SoFi Stadium won’t look like the scene in that photo for this evening’s game. Yes, my ratings project the Rams to win by a touchdown, that is unless you reverse the home field advantage around. But enough with the trolling about that article, let’s take a look at the actual data like the updated ratings, and then I’ll post predictions for all 14 games this weekend. I’ll also include an updated simulation of the NFL season after last weekend’s games.
Updated Ratings
Unlike experiment with my college football ratings, there’s just a single set of NFL ratings. Preseason games are worth 28% of a regular season game in my ratings, and each game last season is worth 14%. Assuming four games this season, three preseason games, and 17 games last season, the 2025 regular season should account for 55.40% of a team’s rating, the preseason for 11.63%, and last season for 32.96%. These are estimates, and the actual numbers can vary a bit from team to team for a few reasons. Yes, I’m aware that the three numbers don’t quite add up to 100%. That’s the effect of rounding at two decimal places. Preseason games still matter in the ratings, but it’s mainly a split now between the 2025 regular season and the 2024 regular season. I’ll continue to phase out the 2024 games and the 2025 preseason over the next several weeks.
The Move column indicates how much a team’s rank has risen or fallen since last week. The Change column is the change in the team’s predictive rating. Going forward, I’ll describe these as predictive ratings to distinguish them from some of my other college football ratings like strength of record.
Predictive Ratings
Home advantage: 2.97 points
Mean score: 22.17 points
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
1 11.09 +0.43 Detroit Lions 9.47 1.55
2 6.99 -2.68 Baltimore Ravens 8.69 -1.75
3 +5 6.47 +1.48 Philadelphia Eagles 3.26 3.25
4 +1 6.13 +0.05 Seattle Seahawks 3.06 3.05
5 -1 5.85 -1.14 Buffalo Bills 6.32 -0.44
6 5.74 +0.60 Denver Broncos 0.28 5.41
7 -4 5.40 -1.59 Green Bay Packers 1.87 3.52
8 +4 4.88 +2.73 Kansas City Chiefs 1.59 3.26
9 -2 3.77 -1.33 Indianapolis Colts 4.14 -0.30
10 3.45 -0.61 Minnesota Vikings 1.17 2.24
11 -2 3.37 -0.70 Los Angeles Chargers 0.69 2.69
12 +1 3.30 +1.18 Los Angeles Rams 1.82 1.54
13 -2 2.35 -0.47 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3.09 -0.73
14 +1 2.17 +1.43 Houston Texans -4.98 7.14
15 +3 1.00 +0.81 Pittsburgh Steelers -0.09 1.05
16 0.36 -0.14 Arizona Cardinals -2.21 2.51
17 -3 -0.10 -0.85 Washington Commanders 3.04 -3.17
18 -1 -0.33 -0.62 Chicago Bears 0.03 -0.32
19 -0.86 -0.89 San Francisco 49ers -1.16 0.29
20 +1 -1.82 +1.36 Jacksonville Jaguars -1.81 0.02
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
21 +1 -3.17 +0.51 Miami Dolphins -2.33 -0.86
22 +7 -3.42 +3.01 New England Patriots -2.23 -1.19
23 -3 -3.58 -0.59 New York Jets -0.81 -2.72
24 -3.76 +1.07 Atlanta Falcons -4.39 0.67
25 +2 -4.30 +1.58 New York Giants -4.77 0.46
26 +2 -4.55 +1.37 Dallas Cowboys 2.71 -7.23
27 -1 -5.40 +0.47 Las Vegas Raiders -3.64 -1.74
28 -3 -6.50 -1.52 Cincinnati Bengals -0.52 -6.02
29 -6 -6.59 -1.86 Cleveland Browns -7.98 1.39
30 +2 -8.06 +0.48 New Orleans Saints -4.39 -3.68
31 -1 -9.57 -1.49 Tennessee Titans -5.17 -4.41
32 -1 -10.12 -1.99 Carolina Panthers -4.65 -5.47 The big surprise is that Baltimore was a heavy favorite in the preseason rankings, but they opened the season 1-3. Their point differential isn’t that bad for a 1-3 team, just -2, and their rating is boosted by the influence of last season’s games. The Lions have surged to the top of the ratings, and the Chiefs are recovering from starting the season farther down in the ratings and have a fairly good point differential of +21 despite being 2-2.
Schedule Strength
I’ve moved strength of schedule to a new table and added another couple of columns. The first column is the expected losing percentage (1 minus winning percentage) for a hypothetical average NFL team in each team’s games played to date. Larger numbers mean a tougher schedule. The second column is the same thing, just for future games instead of past games.
The third column is the average opponent rating, with an adjustment for the site of games, for previously played games. The fourth column is the average opponent rating for the future games that each team will play. These two columns are the same schedule strength metrics from my previous NFL articles.
In college football, the two approaches to schedule strength would differ more just because the approach used in the first two columns limits the influence of truly lopsided blowout games. In the NFL, there just aren’t that many blowouts, and the teams are more evenly balanced. Therefore, there’s just not too much of a difference in the two approaches to measuring schedule strength.
Schedule Strength for an Average Team
Home advantage: 2.97 points
Mean score: 22.17 points
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
1 Detroit Lions .538 (10) .540 (6) 1.37 (10) 1.34 (7)
2 Baltimore Ravens .614 (2) .460 (26) 3.81 (2) -1.29 (25)
3 Philadelphia Eagles .545 (9) .542 (5) 1.49 (9) 1.44 (6)
4 Seattle Seahawks .450 (25) .490 (19) -1.89 (25) -0.35 (19)
5 Buffalo Bills .402 (30) .453 (28) -3.44 (30) -1.60 (28)
6 Denver Broncos .445 (26) .498 (18) -2.23 (27) -0.07 (18)
7 Green Bay Packers .495 (19) .547 (3) -0.04 (18) 1.53 (4)
8 Kansas City Chiefs .596 (4) .517 (14) 3.13 (4) 0.61 (13)
9 Indianapolis Colts .473 (21) .488 (20) -0.92 (22) -0.47 (20)
10 Minnesota Vikings .432 (28) .594 (1) -2.40 (28) 3.31 (1)
11 Los Angeles Chargers .507 (17) .499 (17) 0.23 (17) -0.01 (17)
12 Los Angeles Rams .518 (14) .525 (11) 0.71 (13) 0.84 (11)
13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers .511 (16) .457 (27) 0.32 (16) -1.37 (27)
14 Houston Texans .467 (23) .545 (4) -1.44 (24) 1.56 (3)
15 Pittsburgh Steelers .520 (13) .522 (12) 0.64 (15) 0.83 (12)
16 Arizona Cardinals .414 (29) .507 (16) -3.23 (29) 0.18 (16)
17 Washington Commanders .439 (27) .577 (2) -2.02 (26) 2.59 (2)
18 Chicago Bears .520 (12) .538 (7) 1.15 (11) 1.26 (8)
19 San Francisco 49ers .469 (22) .483 (21) -0.85 (21) -0.79 (23)
20 Jacksonville Jaguars .395 (31) .509 (15) -3.83 (31) 0.18 (15)
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
21 Miami Dolphins .517 (15) .443 (29) 0.65 (14) -1.97 (30)
22 New England Patriots .333 (32) .440 (30) -5.91 (32) -1.93 (29)
23 New York Jets .546 (8) .419 (31) 1.51 (8) -2.75 (31)
24 Atlanta Falcons .466 (24) .477 (24) -1.11 (23) -0.96 (24)
25 New York Giants .528 (11) .538 (8) 0.90 (12) 1.45 (5)
26 Dallas Cowboys .553 (6) .529 (9) 1.81 (6) 1.13 (9)
27 Las Vegas Raiders .496 (18) .520 (13) -0.12 (19) 0.55 (14)
28 Cincinnati Bengals .547 (7) .527 (10) 1.68 (7) 0.97 (10)
29 Cleveland Browns .614 (1) .462 (25) 4.25 (1) -1.35 (26)
30 New Orleans Saints .580 (5) .408 (32) 2.87 (5) -3.17 (32)
31 Tennessee Titans .612 (3) .478 (23) 3.75 (3) -0.79 (22)
32 Carolina Panthers .481 (20) .479 (22) -0.67 (20) -0.74 (21)NFL Season Simulations
These are based on 20,000 simulations of the NFL season using the results from the first three weeks of the season and these ratings to predict the remaining 14 weeks and the postseason. Tiebreakers for making the postseason are simplified, and the simulations don’t factor in potential issues like injuries, but this is still useful for making an educated guess about the standings at the end of the regular season.
Projected Standings
First up is the projected won-loss records, points scored, and points allowed for each team. The rating column is the team’s overall rating, included as a measure of team strength.
AFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Buffalo Bills 12.98 3.98 0.04 .765 503.30 364.26 5.85
New England Patriots 8.03 8.92 0.05 .474 381.80 379.92 -3.42
Miami Dolphins 7.03 9.91 0.06 .415 362.30 413.13 -3.17
New York Jets 6.26 10.69 0.05 .370 389.95 430.57 -3.58
AFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Baltimore Ravens 10.21 6.75 0.04 .602 532.78 429.02 6.99
Pittsburgh Steelers 9.55 7.40 0.05 .563 392.47 392.50 1.00
Cincinnati Bengals 6.08 10.88 0.04 .359 345.78 500.07 -6.50
Cleveland Browns 5.64 11.30 0.07 .334 260.41 372.18 -6.59
AFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Indianapolis Colts 10.85 6.10 0.05 .640 444.73 350.96 3.77
Jacksonville Jaguars 8.76 8.18 0.06 .517 352.03 353.00 -1.82
Houston Texans 7.66 9.25 0.09 .453 284.34 264.21 2.17
Tennessee Titans 3.55 13.40 0.05 .210 263.33 443.69 -9.57
AFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Los Angeles Chargers 10.65 6.29 0.06 .628 382.72 322.60 3.37
Denver Broncos 10.40 6.54 0.06 .613 383.71 282.16 5.74
Kansas City Chiefs 9.93 7.02 0.05 .585 404.55 329.62 4.88
Las Vegas Raiders 5.56 11.38 0.05 .329 302.53 399.28 -5.40
NFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Philadelphia Eagles 12.12 4.84 0.05 .714 436.43 353.03 6.47
Washington Commanders 7.55 9.40 0.05 .446 424.88 442.74 -0.10
Dallas Cowboys 5.57 10.38 1.05 .359 430.71 522.28 -4.55
New York Giants 5.60 11.34 0.05 .331 298.96 399.42 -4.30
NFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Detroit Lions 12.62 4.34 0.04 .743 547.54 372.85 11.09
Green Bay Packers 9.71 6.24 1.05 .602 410.96 341.53 5.40
Minnesota Vikings 8.53 8.42 0.05 .503 396.12 373.03 3.45
Chicago Bears 7.93 9.02 0.05 .468 386.27 422.98 -0.33
NFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10.72 6.24 0.04 .632 435.37 387.30 2.35
Atlanta Falcons 7.49 9.46 0.06 .442 319.32 364.55 -3.76
New Orleans Saints 4.82 12.12 0.05 .285 316.12 434.08 -8.06
Carolina Panthers 4.43 12.53 0.04 .262 317.28 457.39 -10.12
NFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Seattle Seahawks 11.73 5.22 0.05 .692 436.27 309.63 6.13
Los Angeles Rams 10.31 6.64 0.05 .608 408.59 357.65 3.30
San Francisco 49ers 9.39 7.56 0.06 .554 346.19 342.49 -0.86
Arizona Cardinals 8.52 8.42 0.06 .503 343.30 332.88 0.36 Playoff Chances
The next table shows each team’s chances of making the playoffs, winning their division, and having the best record in the conference. The mean playoff seed is an average that uses only the seasons when each team made the playoffs. Div% and Conf% are the probabilities of a team having the best record in their division and conference, respectively.
AFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Buffalo Bills 5.85 .765 99.12% 96.56% 58.90% 1.72
New England Patriots -3.42 .474 24.16% 2.63% 0.32% 5.88
Miami Dolphins -3.17 .415 11.27% 0.65% 0.04% 6.10
New York Jets -3.58 .370 5.09% 0.15% 0.01% 6.36
AFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Baltimore Ravens 6.99 .602 82.91% 62.58% 3.31% 3.85
Pittsburgh Steelers 1.00 .563 67.72% 35.42% 3.63% 4.47
Cincinnati Bengals -6.50 .359 4.43% 1.32% 0.01% 5.69
Cleveland Browns -6.59 .334 2.77% 0.68% 0.01% 5.84
AFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Indianapolis Colts 3.77 .640 88.92% 73.34% 11.80% 3.29
Jacksonville Jaguars -1.82 .517 43.60% 18.27% 0.98% 4.94
Houston Texans 2.17 .453 26.83% 8.38% 0.43% 5.34
Tennessee Titans -9.57 .210 0.09% 0.01% 0.00% 6.44
AFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Los Angeles Chargers 3.37 .628 84.72% 39.31% 9.41% 4.14
Denver Broncos 5.74 .613 81.56% 35.32% 5.57% 4.39
Kansas City Chiefs 4.88 .585 74.19% 25.21% 5.56% 4.67
Las Vegas Raiders -5.40 .329 2.62% 0.15% 0.00% 6.32
NFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Philadelphia Eagles 6.47 .714 97.10% 94.61% 27.53% 2.39
Washington Commanders -0.10 .446 15.90% 4.42% 0.18% 5.50
Dallas Cowboys -4.55 .359 3.36% 0.61% 0.01% 5.97
New York Giants -4.30 .331 1.98% 0.36% 0.00% 6.05
NFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Detroit Lions 11.09 .743 97.43% 81.17% 38.26% 2.46
Green Bay Packers 5.40 .602 71.47% 14.16% 3.85% 5.09
Minnesota Vikings 3.45 .503 32.51% 3.66% 0.73% 5.75
Chicago Bears -0.33 .468 18.22% 1.00% 0.12% 6.08
NFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2.35 .632 92.77% 90.29% 4.93% 3.46
Atlanta Falcons -3.76 .442 18.48% 8.57% 0.07% 5.14
New Orleans Saints -8.06 .285 0.97% 0.73% 0.00% 4.67
Carolina Panthers -10.12 .262 0.69% 0.42% 0.00% 4.96
NFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Seattle Seahawks 6.13 .692 91.88% 60.75% 17.54% 3.39
Los Angeles Rams 3.30 .608 71.14% 23.77% 4.58% 4.75
San Francisco 49ers -0.86 .554 52.96% 11.06% 1.78% 5.36
Arizona Cardinals 0.36 .503 33.13% 4.42% 0.39% 5.75Possible Regular Season Outcomes
To give a range of how good or bad a team’s final record might be, several percentiles are shown for each team’s final winning percentage.
AFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Buffalo Bills .765 99.59% .647 .706 .765 .824 .882
New England Patriots .474 38.84% .353 .412 .471 .529 .588
Miami Dolphins .415 19.71% .294 .353 .412 .471 .529
New York Jets .370 9.07% .235 .294 .353 .412 .471
AFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Baltimore Ravens .602 86.00% .471 .529 .588 .647 .706
Pittsburgh Steelers .563 73.42% .412 .471 .588 .647 .706
Cincinnati Bengals .359 6.44% .235 .294 .353 .412 .471
Cleveland Browns .334 4.67% .235 .265 .353 .412 .471
AFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Indianapolis Colts .640 92.18% .529 .588 .647 .706 .765
Jacksonville Jaguars .517 55.53% .412 .471 .529 .588 .647
Houston Texans .453 31.28% .324 .412 .471 .529 .588
Tennessee Titans .210 0.11% .118 .147 .206 .294 .353
AFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Los Angeles Chargers .628 89.74% .500 .588 .647 .706 .765
Denver Broncos .613 87.62% .471 .529 .588 .706 .735
Kansas City Chiefs .585 80.09% .471 .529 .588 .647 .706
Las Vegas Raiders .329 3.48% .235 .265 .353 .412 .471
NFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Philadelphia Eagles .714 98.39% .588 .647 .706 .765 .824
Washington Commanders .446 28.98% .294 .353 .471 .529 .588
Dallas Cowboys .359 4.58% .235 .265 .382 .441 .500
New York Giants .331 4.15% .235 .265 .353 .412 .471
NFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Detroit Lions .743 99.37% .647 .706 .765 .824 .882
Green Bay Packers .602 77.53% .500 .559 .618 .676 .735
Minnesota Vikings .503 50.74% .353 .412 .529 .588 .647
Chicago Bears .468 35.99% .353 .412 .471 .529 .588
NFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .632 91.75% .529 .588 .647 .706 .765
Atlanta Falcons .442 27.05% .294 .353 .441 .529 .588
New Orleans Saints .285 1.41% .176 .235 .294 .353 .412
Carolina Panthers .262 0.65% .176 .176 .235 .294 .353
NFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Seattle Seahawks .692 97.08% .588 .647 .706 .765 .824
Los Angeles Rams .608 85.84% .471 .529 .588 .676 .735
San Francisco 49ers .554 69.78% .412 .471 .529 .647 .706
Arizona Cardinals .503 50.46% .353 .412 .529 .588 .647Postseason Projections
The final table shows each team’s probability of reaching the playoffs, the divisional round, the conference championship, winning their conference, and winning the Super Bowl.
AFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Buffalo Bills .765 99.12% 85.94% 53.70% 26.26% 12.38%
New England Patriots .474 24.16% 5.91% 1.36% 0.33% 0.08%
Miami Dolphins .415 11.27% 2.79% 0.61% 0.22% 0.04%
New York Jets .370 5.09% 1.16% 0.25% 0.09% 0.02%
AFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Baltimore Ravens .602 82.91% 55.38% 30.73% 18.64% 9.04%
Pittsburgh Steelers .563 67.72% 30.06% 11.37% 4.57% 1.52%
Cincinnati Bengals .359 4.43% 0.83% 0.15% 0.03% 0.01%
Cleveland Browns .334 2.77% 0.48% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00%
AFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Indianapolis Colts .640 88.92% 56.24% 27.09% 12.80% 5.24%
Jacksonville Jaguars .517 43.60% 15.44% 4.55% 1.64% 0.39%
Houston Texans .453 26.83% 11.47% 4.35% 2.05% 0.68%
Tennessee Titans .210 0.09% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Los Angeles Chargers .628 84.72% 45.98% 21.62% 9.88% 3.98%
Denver Broncos .613 81.56% 47.16% 24.27% 13.18% 5.90%
Kansas City Chiefs .585 74.19% 40.64% 19.80% 10.29% 4.25%
Las Vegas Raiders .329 2.62% 0.54% 0.09% 0.02% 0.00%
NFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Philadelphia Eagles .714 97.10% 74.22% 42.23% 19.71% 10.55%
Washington Commanders .446 15.90% 5.41% 1.49% 0.52% 0.19%
Dallas Cowboys .359 3.36% 0.70% 0.16% 0.07% 0.01%
New York Giants .331 1.98% 0.36% 0.07% 0.03% 0.01%
NFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Detroit Lions .743 97.43% 82.57% 59.81% 38.40% 25.99%
Green Bay Packers .602 71.47% 35.54% 15.75% 7.67% 3.77%
Minnesota Vikings .503 32.51% 13.14% 4.59% 2.10% 1.00%
Chicago Bears .468 18.22% 5.12% 1.22% 0.45% 0.17%
NFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .632 92.77% 53.41% 19.45% 7.19% 2.97%
Atlanta Falcons .442 18.48% 5.03% 0.86% 0.22% 0.07%
New Orleans Saints .285 0.97% 0.27% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00%
Carolina Panthers .262 0.69% 0.13% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Seattle Seahawks .692 91.88% 62.51% 33.16% 15.19% 8.21%
Los Angeles Rams .608 71.14% 33.92% 13.38% 5.80% 2.67%
San Francisco 49ers .554 52.96% 16.96% 4.56% 1.48% 0.50%
Arizona Cardinals .503 33.13% 10.70% 3.21% 1.18% 0.38%At this point, there’s still a lot of uncertainty with 14 weeks left. However, I believe these projections are still useful because they take into account how the difficulty of each team’s remaining schedule can affect their final record. In particular, it provides some guidance about what to expect from teams like Baltimore with unexpected starts, where their rating doesn’t match their 1-3 record to open the season. They were heavy favorites to win the AFC and the Super Bowl in the preseason, but that’s changed quite a bit while Detroit’s chances have risen quite a bit. My preseason projections gave Baltimore around a 98% chance of making the playoffs, and that’s dropped considerably at this point despite them still being fairly likely to make the postseason. If anything, Detroit’s chances of making the playoffs look fairly similar to the numbers for Baltimore before the season. I’ll continue running these simulations each week, and the uncertainty will decrease considerably over the course of the season.
Week 5 Game Predictions
The thresholds for close games, blowouts, and high and low scoring games are different in the NFL than in college football. That’s because NFL teams are balanced enough in talent to usually avoid truly lopsided scores and there’s just less scoring overall.
Games are ranked based on the projected quality. This factors in the overall strength of the two teams and the potential for a competitive game. Game quality ratings are not directly comparable between college football and the NFL for many of the same reasons I just mentioned. This is just for predicting which NFL games are most and least compelling each weekend.
#1: Denver Broncos (-3.70, 38.22%) at Philadelphia Eagles (3.70, 61.34%), Tie (0.43%)
Estimated score: 17.72 - 21.51, Total: 39.23
Quality: 89.14%, Team quality: 85.82%, Competitiveness: 96.18%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 19.56%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 23.90%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 12.87%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 32.73%
#2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.76, 29.37%) at Seattle Seahawks (6.76, 70.23%), Tie (0.39%)
Estimated score: 20.74 - 27.45, Total: 48.18
Quality: 77.09%, Team quality: 72.22%, Competitiveness: 87.82%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 23.77%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 21.68%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 31.22%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 13.78%
#3: Houston Texans (-7.79, 26.61%) at Baltimore Ravens (7.79, 73.01%), Tie (0.37%)
Estimated score: 17.45 - 25.21, Total: 42.66
Quality: 75.94%, Team quality: 72.15%, Competitiveness: 84.14%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 25.69%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 20.71%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 18.79%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 24.38%
#4: Kansas City Chiefs (3.72, 61.40%) at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.72, 38.17%), Tie (0.43%)
Estimated score: 22.26 - 18.58, Total: 40.84
Quality: 69.60%, Team quality: 59.22%, Competitiveness: 96.14%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 19.58%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 23.89%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 15.46%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 28.67%
#5: Washington Commanders (-6.44, 30.25%) at Los Angeles Chargers (6.44, 69.35%), Tie (0.40%)
Estimated score: 21.04 - 27.52, Total: 48.56
Quality: 65.29%, Team quality: 55.96%, Competitiveness: 88.88%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 23.23%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 21.96%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 32.19%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 13.19%
#6: San Francisco 49ers (-7.14, 28.35%) at Los Angeles Rams (7.14, 71.26%), Tie (0.39%)
Estimated score: 17.99 - 25.19, Total: 43.17
Quality: 61.45%, Team quality: 51.79%, Competitiveness: 86.52%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 24.45%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 21.34%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 19.79%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 23.25%
#7: New England Patriots (-12.24, 16.41%) at Buffalo Bills (12.24, 83.31%), Tie (0.28%)
Estimated score: 18.90 - 31.17, Total: 50.06
Quality: 47.29%, Team quality: 40.25%, Competitiveness: 65.29%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 36.30%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 15.78%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 36.15%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 11.02%
#8: Minnesota Vikings (7.07, 71.06%) at Cleveland Browns (-7.07, 28.55%), Tie (0.39%)
Estimated score: 20.46 - 13.44, Total: 33.91
Quality: 45.38%, Team quality: 32.82%, Competitiveness: 86.78%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 24.31%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 21.40%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 6.49%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 47.41%
#9: Detroit Lions (14.62, 87.60%) at Cincinnati Bengals (-14.62, 12.17%), Tie (0.23%)
Estimated score: 36.18 - 21.59, Total: 57.77
Quality: 44.84%, Team quality: 40.70%, Competitiveness: 54.44%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 43.11%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 12.99%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 57.88%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 3.76%
#10: Las Vegas Raiders (-12.14, 16.60%) at Indianapolis Colts (12.14, 83.11%), Tie (0.28%)
Estimated score: 17.35 - 29.55, Total: 46.90
Quality: 37.63%, Team quality: 28.47%, Competitiveness: 65.75%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 36.03%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 15.90%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 28.03%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 15.92%
#11: Dallas Cowboys (-3.94, 37.50%) at New York Jets (3.94, 62.06%), Tie (0.43%)
Estimated score: 26.12 - 30.08, Total: 56.19
Quality: 34.76%, Team quality: 20.95%, Competitiveness: 95.68%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 19.81%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 23.77%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 53.42%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 4.79%
#12: New York Giants (0.78, 52.25%) at New Orleans Saints (-0.78, 47.29%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 19.60 - 18.81, Total: 38.41
Quality: 24.45%, Team quality: 12.10%, Competitiveness: 99.83%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 17.79%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 24.87%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 11.67%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 34.90%
#13: Miami Dolphins (3.98, 62.18%) at Carolina Panthers (-3.98, 37.39%), Tie (0.43%)
Estimated score: 23.83 - 19.86, Total: 43.69
Quality: 21.03%, Team quality: 9.86%, Competitiveness: 95.60%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 19.85%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 23.75%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 20.84%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 22.13%
#14: Tennessee Titans (-12.90, 15.14%) at Arizona Cardinals (12.90, 84.59%), Tie (0.27%)
Estimated score: 13.01 - 25.85, Total: 38.87
Quality: 19.36%, Team quality: 10.79%, Competitiveness: 62.28%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 38.13%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 15.00%
High scoring probability (total >= 55.0 pts): 12.33%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 33.68%Beside each team, there are two numbers in parentheses. One is the predicted margin of victory (positive) or defeat (negative), the other is the probability of winning. In the event that a margin is larger than what’s indicated by the predicted score, that’s because there’s nothing in the math that prevents a forecast of negative points with a sufficiently lopsided matchup. This isn’t even close to possible with the current NFL ratings, even with the weakest offense against the strongest defense, but it does occur once in awhile in college football. A negative score is impossible, of course, so the score would be set to zero in those instances. However, there’s no upper limit on how many points a team can be projected to score. But with more parity between NFL teams, even the highest scoring predictions aren’t going to be nearly as crazy as what is possible with the college football ratings.
Thanks for reading!
The ratings in this article are based on standings and past game logs from Pro Football Reference.