NFL Ratings, Week 2 Predictions, and Updated Season Simulations
How have the Ravens' rating and postseason chances changed after a close loss at Buffalo last weekend?
Week 2 of the NFL season starts tonight when the Commanders visit Green Bay. The computer ratings weren't kind to Washington early this season, but a strong performance tonight by the Commanders could very well raise them back up the ratings. The Packers moved up in the ratings after a decisive win over the Lions, giving them the best rating in the NFC.
For a team that played 17 games last season and three preseason games, last season is responsible for 60.71% of the ratings, the preseason for 21.43%, and game 1 of this season for the remaining 17.86%. The percentages will be a bit different for teams with an extra preseason game or that made the playoffs last year. Over the next 10 weeks, I'll adjust the impact of last season and the preseason downward until the ratings are entirely based on this season's games.
The Ratings
The first strength of schedule column is based on regular season games that have already been played. The second schedule strength column is for future games. In both cases, it's just an average of the opponents' ratings.
Overall Ratings
Home advantage: 2.32 points
Mean score: 21.94 points
Rank Rating Team Offense Defense SOS Future SOS
1 11.14 Baltimore Ravens 8.85 2.29 8.02 (4) 0.04 (18)
2 7.42 Green Bay Packers 3.10 4.31 2.93 (9) 1.07 (10)
3 6.07 Denver Broncos 1.15 4.88 -7.38 (31) 0.31 (16)
4 5.70 Buffalo Bills 8.50 -2.79 8.82 (2) -2.34 (30)
5 5.25 Detroit Lions 5.06 0.23 9.74 (1) 1.77 (5)
6 5.24 Philadelphia Eagles 3.14 2.04 -6.29 (29) 1.73 (6)
7 4.36 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2.87 1.43 -2.51 (22) -2.36 (31)
8 3.86 Indianapolis Colts 3.02 0.87 -5.07 (27) -0.71 (20)
9 3.20 Los Angeles Chargers 1.77 1.41 -1.23 (18) 0.07 (17)
10 3.05 Minnesota Vikings 1.84 1.23 2.57 (10) 1.98 (1)
11 2.37 Pittsburgh Steelers 1.47 0.90 0.44 (15) 1.79 (4)
12 1.91 Houston Texans -2.95 4.89 3.50 (8) 0.65 (12)
13 1.17 Los Angeles Rams -0.25 1.39 -0.41 (17) -0.03 (19)
14 1.09 Kansas City Chiefs 1.26 -0.21 5.52 (7) 1.13 (9)
15 0.91 Arizona Cardinals -1.04 1.94 -3.97 (25) -0.87 (22)
16 0.50 Cincinnati Bengals 3.69 -3.18 -2.17 (21) 1.87 (2)
17 0.25 Chicago Bears -0.43 0.69 0.73 (14) 1.84 (3)
18 0.19 Washington Commanders 2.38 -2.20 -5.59 (28) 1.14 (8)
19 -0.05 Seattle Seahawks -1.49 1.44 -3.02 (24) -0.71 (21)
20 -0.70 San Francisco 49ers 0.36 -1.01 2.27 (12) -1.78 (28)
Rank Rating Team Offense Defense SOS Future SOS
21 -1.88 New York Jets 0.64 -2.54 0.05 (16) -1.54 (27)
22 -2.75 Miami Dolphins -3.24 0.52 6.18 (6) -1.18 (25)
23 -3.27 New York Giants -4.46 1.21 2.51 (11) 0.67 (11)
24 -3.97 Dallas Cowboys -0.74 -3.26 7.56 (5) 0.38 (14)
25 -4.32 Las Vegas Raiders -3.41 -0.90 -4.66 (26) 0.36 (15)
26 -4.49 Cleveland Browns -5.80 1.34 -1.82 (20) 1.72 (7)
27 -4.83 Atlanta Falcons -2.43 -2.40 2.04 (13) -1.82 (29)
28 -4.97 Jacksonville Jaguars -3.60 -1.34 -16.39 (32) 0.46 (13)
29 -5.06 Tennessee Titans -3.77 -1.31 8.39 (3) -1.22 (26)
30 -6.29 New Orleans Saints -4.55 -1.71 -1.41 (19) -2.38 (32)
31 -6.98 New England Patriots -4.53 -2.45 -6.64 (30) -1.09 (24)
32 -14.07 Carolina Panthers -6.48 -7.60 -2.65 (23) -0.92 (23)I wrote quite a bit about Kansas City last week, and I'm not surprised by the Chargers winning against the Chiefs on Sunday. At the top of the ratings, Baltimore has dropped slightly after losing by a point at Buffalo. It was expected that Green Bay would rise after winning by two touchdowns over Detroit, and it makes sense that Denver dropped slightly after a relatively narrow home win over Tennessee. It's a bit more surprising to see the Chargers fall after their win over the Chiefs and that the Lions actually rose in the ratings. Most likely, that's because some of the more surprising results in week 1 have also shifted how last season's games are evaluated by the rating system.
Week 2 Game Predictions
#1: Denver Broncos (-0.11, 49.44%) at Indianapolis Colts (0.11, 50.12%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 21.06 - 21.24, Total: 42.30
Quality: 88.92%, Team quality: 83.85%, Competitiveness: 100.00%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 17.54%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 25.02%
High scoring probability (total >= 54.0 pts): 19.70%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 24.91%
#2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0.13, 50.18%) at Houston Texans (-0.13, 49.38%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 18.76 - 18.73, Total: 37.48
Quality: 81.34%, Team quality: 73.36%, Competitiveness: 100.00%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 17.54%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 25.02%
High scoring probability (total >= 54.0 pts): 11.44%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 37.20%
#3: Philadelphia Eagles (1.83, 55.58%) at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.83, 43.98%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 24.12 - 22.32, Total: 46.45
Quality: 80.80%, Team quality: 72.98%, Competitiveness: 99.05%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 17.99%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 24.76%
High scoring probability (total >= 54.0 pts): 29.11%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 16.37%
#4: Buffalo Bills (5.26, 66.06%) at New York Jets (-5.26, 33.54%), Tie (0.40%)
Estimated score: 31.82 - 26.53, Total: 58.35
Quality: 69.40%, Team quality: 60.15%, Competitiveness: 92.38%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.27%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 22.98%
High scoring probability (total >= 54.0 pts): 62.44%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 3.24%
#5: Chicago Bears (-7.32, 27.78%) at Detroit Lions (7.32, 71.84%), Tie (0.37%)
Estimated score: 20.12 - 27.47, Total: 47.59
Quality: 69.09%, Team quality: 62.01%, Competitiveness: 85.77%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 24.65%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 21.22%
High scoring probability (total >= 54.0 pts): 32.02%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 14.40%
#6: Washington Commanders (-9.55, 22.16%) at Green Bay Packers (9.55, 77.51%), Tie (0.33%)
Estimated score: 18.85 - 28.40, Total: 47.24
Quality: 67.79%, Team quality: 63.61%, Competitiveness: 77.01%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 29.35%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 18.90%
High scoring probability (total >= 54.0 pts): 31.13%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 14.97%
#7: Seattle Seahawks (-4.74, 35.08%) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4.74, 64.51%), Tie (0.41%)
Estimated score: 18.38 - 23.12, Total: 41.50
Quality: 66.04%, Team quality: 55.42%, Competitiveness: 93.78%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 20.57%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 23.35%
High scoring probability (total >= 54.0 pts): 18.13%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 26.79%
#8: Los Angeles Chargers (5.20, 65.89%) at Las Vegas Raiders (-5.20, 33.71%), Tie (0.40%)
Estimated score: 23.46 - 18.28, Total: 41.74
Quality: 54.38%, Team quality: 41.68%, Competitiveness: 92.54%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.19%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 23.02%
High scoring probability (total >= 54.0 pts): 18.58%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 26.23%
#9: Los Angeles Rams (3.91, 62.03%) at Tennessee Titans (-3.91, 37.55%), Tie (0.42%)
Estimated score: 21.83 - 17.93, Total: 39.76
Quality: 47.16%, Team quality: 33.10%, Competitiveness: 95.71%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 19.62%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 23.87%
High scoring probability (total >= 54.0 pts): 14.99%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 31.11%
#10: Atlanta Falcons (-10.21, 20.63%) at Minnesota Vikings (10.21, 79.05%), Tie (0.32%)
Estimated score: 17.12 - 27.34, Total: 44.46
Quality: 41.00%, Team quality: 30.47%, Competitiveness: 74.20%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 30.92%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 18.16%
High scoring probability (total >= 54.0 pts): 24.36%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 20.19%
#11: Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.80, 26.53%) at Cincinnati Bengals (7.80, 73.11%), Tie (0.36%)
Estimated score: 20.36 - 28.13, Total: 48.49
Quality: 38.85%, Team quality: 26.42%, Competitiveness: 84.02%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 25.57%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 20.75%
High scoring probability (total >= 54.0 pts): 34.40%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 12.96%
#12: New York Giants (-1.63, 44.63%) at Dallas Cowboys (1.63, 54.94%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 19.57 - 21.15, Total: 40.72
Quality: 37.78%, Team quality: 23.31%, Competitiveness: 99.25%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 17.90%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 24.81%
High scoring probability (total >= 54.0 pts): 16.68%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 28.69%
#13: San Francisco 49ers (3.27, 60.07%) at New Orleans Saints (-3.27, 39.50%), Tie (0.43%)
Estimated score: 22.84 - 19.55, Total: 42.40
Quality: 37.54%, Team quality: 23.36%, Competitiveness: 96.99%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 18.99%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 24.21%
High scoring probability (total >= 54.0 pts): 19.90%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 24.68%
#14: Cleveland Browns (-17.95, 7.55%) at Baltimore Ravens (17.95, 92.30%), Tie (0.16%)
Estimated score: 12.70 - 30.62, Total: 43.31
Quality: 37.15%, Team quality: 35.94%, Competitiveness: 39.71%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 53.28%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 9.30%
High scoring probability (total >= 54.0 pts): 21.82%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 22.63%
#15: New England Patriots (-6.54, 29.91%) at Miami Dolphins (6.54, 69.71%), Tie (0.38%)
Estimated score: 15.73 - 22.30, Total: 38.03
Quality: 25.93%, Team quality: 14.04%, Competitiveness: 88.47%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 23.25%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 21.94%
High scoring probability (total >= 54.0 pts): 12.24%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 35.70%
#16: Carolina Panthers (-17.30, 8.31%) at Arizona Cardinals (17.30, 91.52%), Tie (0.17%)
Estimated score: 12.36 - 29.66, Total: 42.02
Quality: 6.97%, Team quality: 2.83%, Competitiveness: 42.41%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 51.26%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 9.98%
High scoring probability (total >= 54.0 pts): 19.13%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 25.57%The thresholds for close games, blowouts, and high and low scoring games are different in the NFL than in college football. That's because NFL teams are balanced enough in talent to usually avoid truly lopsided scores and there's just less scoring overall.
Games are ranked based on the projected quality. This factors in the overall strength of the two teams and the potential for a competitive game. Game quality ratings are not directly comparable between college football and the NFL for many of the same reasons I just mentioned. This is just for predicting which NFL games are most and least compelling each weekend.
Beside each team, there are two numbers in parentheses. One is the predicted margin of victory (positive) or defeat (negative), the other is the probability of winning. In the event that a margin is larger than what's indicated by the predicted score, that's because there's nothing in the math that prevents a forecast of negative points with a sufficiently lopsided matchup. This isn't even close to possible with the current NFL ratings, even with the weakest offense against the strongest defense, but it does occur once in awhile in college football. A negative score is impossible, of course, so the score would be set to zero in those instances. However, there's no upper limit on how many points a team can be projected to score. But with more parity between NFL teams, even the highest scoring predictions aren’t going to be nearly as crazy as what is possible with the college football ratings.
NFL Season Simulations
I've also run my simulations of the NFL season following last weekend's games. There was a small bug in my code that probably affected the predictions slightly, but it was quite unlikely to significantly change the results over the course of a full season. That bug has been fixed for these simulations.
The tables are based on 20,000 simulations of the NFL season using the results from week 1 and then simulating the remainder of the season using the team ratings. I've also added in a simulation of the postseason with each team's chances of advancing through each round of the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.
First up is the projected won-loss records, points scored, and points allowed for each team. The rating column is the team's overall rating, included as a measure of team strength.
AFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Buffalo Bills 12.31 4.64 0.05 .726 542.23 412.79 5.70
New York Jets 7.85 9.10 0.05 .463 413.16 420.98 -1.88
Miami Dolphins 7.31 9.63 0.06 .432 336.26 386.32 -2.75
New England Patriots 5.59 11.36 0.06 .330 312.52 412.67 -6.98
AFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Baltimore Ravens 12.38 4.58 0.05 .729 528.63 354.59 11.14
Pittsburgh Steelers 9.23 7.71 0.06 .545 405.36 395.08 2.37
Cincinnati Bengals 8.41 8.53 0.06 .497 416.89 437.50 0.50
Cleveland Browns 5.40 11.54 0.07 .319 279.08 376.43 -4.49
AFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Indianapolis Colts 10.91 6.03 0.06 .644 420.46 323.82 3.86
Houston Texans 8.54 8.38 0.08 .505 312.77 298.27 1.91
Jacksonville Jaguars 6.64 10.29 0.06 .393 310.40 378.85 -4.97
Tennessee Titans 6.29 10.64 0.07 .372 297.82 365.44 -5.06
AFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Denver Broncos 11.40 5.54 0.07 .672 389.33 291.86 6.07
Los Angeles Chargers 10.35 6.59 0.07 .611 395.67 340.93 3.20
Kansas City Chiefs 7.95 8.99 0.07 .469 385.62 393.01 1.09
Las Vegas Raiders 6.98 9.95 0.07 .412 306.54 372.94 -4.32
NFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Philadelphia Eagles 10.47 6.47 0.06 .618 417.57 359.14 5.24
Washington Commanders 8.56 8.38 0.06 .506 398.32 398.06 0.19
New York Giants 6.30 10.63 0.07 .373 286.99 362.57 -3.27
Dallas Cowboys 6.10 10.84 0.06 .361 357.38 429.85 -3.97
NFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Green Bay Packers 11.52 5.42 0.06 .679 423.31 310.37 7.42
Detroit Lions 9.47 7.47 0.06 .559 435.18 393.91 5.25
Minnesota Vikings 9.44 7.50 0.06 .557 398.67 378.86 3.05
Chicago Bears 7.29 9.64 0.06 .431 361.33 389.80 0.25
NFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11.60 5.34 0.06 .684 438.10 330.40 4.36
Atlanta Falcons 6.69 10.26 0.06 .395 352.42 402.41 -4.83
New Orleans Saints 6.31 10.63 0.06 .373 312.69 381.58 -6.29
Carolina Panthers 2.97 13.98 0.04 .176 269.99 492.25 -14.07
NFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Arizona Cardinals 9.68 7.25 0.07 .571 359.34 324.63 0.91
Los Angeles Rams 9.47 7.46 0.06 .559 362.30 339.11 1.17
San Francisco 49ers 9.39 7.55 0.06 .554 370.94 349.00 -0.70
Seattle Seahawks 8.22 8.71 0.07 .485 340.79 334.62 -0.05 The next table shows each team's chances of making the playoffs, winning their division, and having the best record in the conference. The mean playoff seed is an average that uses only the seasons when each team made the playoffs. Div% and Conf% are the probabilities of a team having the best record in their division and conference, respectively.
AFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Buffalo Bills 5.70 .726 96.67% 91.49% 33.15% 2.38
New York Jets -1.88 .463 24.91% 4.81% 0.25% 5.65
Miami Dolphins -2.75 .432 17.50% 3.25% 0.17% 5.69
New England Patriots -6.98 .330 3.19% 0.46% 0.01% 6.06
AFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Baltimore Ravens 11.14 .729 97.42% 84.52% 29.37% 2.58
Pittsburgh Steelers 2.37 .545 57.09% 10.35% 2.34% 5.27
Cincinnati Bengals 0.50 .497 38.25% 4.96% 0.89% 5.63
Cleveland Browns -4.49 .319 3.28% 0.17% 0.01% 6.26
AFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Indianapolis Colts 3.86 .644 86.61% 74.33% 10.50% 3.38
Houston Texans 1.91 .505 44.99% 19.39% 1.11% 4.93
Jacksonville Jaguars -4.97 .393 11.43% 3.62% 0.05% 5.51
Tennessee Titans -5.06 .372 8.54% 2.65% 0.03% 5.58
AFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Denver Broncos 6.07 .672 90.48% 60.72% 15.03% 3.49
Los Angeles Chargers 3.20 .611 76.13% 32.05% 6.42% 4.39
Kansas City Chiefs 1.09 .469 29.84% 5.42% 0.59% 5.58
Las Vegas Raiders -4.32 .412 13.69% 1.81% 0.07% 5.88
NFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Philadelphia Eagles 5.24 .618 82.62% 71.03% 13.02% 3.22
Washington Commanders 0.19 .506 43.23% 22.71% 1.74% 4.57
New York Giants -3.27 .373 8.53% 3.29% 0.07% 5.25
Dallas Cowboys -3.97 .361 7.47% 2.97% 0.07% 5.27
NFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Green Bay Packers 7.42 .679 91.66% 65.11% 28.97% 2.99
Detroit Lions 5.25 .559 59.88% 15.52% 5.18% 4.89
Minnesota Vikings 3.05 .557 58.50% 16.77% 4.92% 4.83
Chicago Bears 0.25 .431 17.19% 2.60% 0.36% 5.64
NFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4.36 .684 96.44% 94.59% 28.61% 2.43
Atlanta Falcons -4.83 .395 11.89% 2.96% 0.17% 5.53
New Orleans Saints -6.29 .373 7.65% 2.45% 0.04% 5.48
Carolina Panthers -14.07 .176 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 6.11
NFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Arizona Cardinals 0.91 .571 64.20% 32.63% 6.21% 4.28
Los Angeles Rams 1.17 .559 59.36% 29.29% 4.82% 4.38
San Francisco 49ers -0.70 .554 57.17% 26.31% 4.34% 4.50
Seattle Seahawks -0.05 .485 34.17% 11.77% 1.49% 5.02To give a range of how good or bad a team's final record might be, several percentiles are shown for each team's final winning percentage.
AFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Buffalo Bills .726 98.12% .588 .647 .706 .824 .882
New York Jets .463 36.25% .353 .412 .471 .529 .588
Miami Dolphins .432 26.48% .294 .353 .412 .529 .588
New England Patriots .330 5.18% .176 .235 .353 .412 .471
AFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Baltimore Ravens .729 98.62% .588 .647 .706 .824 .824
Pittsburgh Steelers .545 64.90% .412 .471 .529 .647 .706
Cincinnati Bengals .497 48.02% .353 .412 .471 .588 .647
Cleveland Browns .319 4.74% .176 .235 .294 .412 .471
AFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Indianapolis Colts .644 89.48% .500 .588 .647 .706 .765
Houston Texans .505 51.17% .353 .412 .529 .588 .647
Jacksonville Jaguars .393 16.13% .235 .294 .412 .471 .529
Tennessee Titans .372 12.43% .235 .294 .353 .471 .529
AFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Denver Broncos .672 93.95% .529 .588 .676 .765 .824
Los Angeles Chargers .611 82.79% .471 .529 .588 .706 .765
Kansas City Chiefs .469 38.88% .324 .412 .471 .529 .588
Las Vegas Raiders .412 20.46% .294 .353 .412 .471 .529
NFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Philadelphia Eagles .618 85.06% .471 .529 .618 .706 .765
Washington Commanders .506 51.01% .353 .412 .529 .588 .647
New York Giants .373 12.44% .235 .294 .353 .471 .529
Dallas Cowboys .361 10.47% .235 .294 .353 .412 .529
NFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Green Bay Packers .679 95.08% .529 .588 .706 .765 .824
Detroit Lions .559 69.96% .412 .471 .588 .647 .706
Minnesota Vikings .557 69.03% .412 .471 .559 .647 .706
Chicago Bears .431 25.91% .294 .353 .412 .529 .588
NFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .684 95.65% .529 .618 .706 .765 .824
Atlanta Falcons .395 16.68% .235 .294 .412 .471 .529
New Orleans Saints .373 11.70% .235 .294 .353 .471 .529
Carolina Panthers .176 0.06% .059 .118 .176 .235 .294
NFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Arizona Cardinals .571 73.57% .412 .471 .588 .647 .706
Los Angeles Rams .559 69.86% .412 .471 .559 .647 .706
San Francisco 49ers .554 67.97% .412 .471 .529 .647 .706
Seattle Seahawks .485 44.60% .353 .412 .471 .588 .647The final table shows each team's probability of reaching the playoffs, the divisional round, the conference championship, winning their conference, and winning the Super Bowl.
AFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Buffalo Bills .726 96.67% 74.76% 41.15% 17.93% 9.39%
New York Jets .463 24.91% 6.94% 1.69% 0.52% 0.16%
Miami Dolphins .432 17.50% 4.59% 1.14% 0.31% 0.09%
New England Patriots .330 3.19% 0.60% 0.13% 0.02% 0.01%
AFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Baltimore Ravens .729 97.42% 82.56% 59.60% 40.20% 27.32%
Pittsburgh Steelers .545 57.09% 23.23% 8.44% 3.38% 1.50%
Cincinnati Bengals .497 38.25% 12.98% 4.17% 1.55% 0.53%
Cleveland Browns .319 3.28% 0.66% 0.12% 0.01% 0.01%
AFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Indianapolis Colts .644 86.61% 54.77% 24.13% 10.02% 4.79%
Houston Texans .505 44.99% 19.50% 6.68% 2.58% 1.19%
Jacksonville Jaguars .393 11.43% 2.62% 0.49% 0.10% 0.03%
Tennessee Titans .372 8.54% 1.95% 0.32% 0.07% 0.03%
AFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Denver Broncos .672 90.48% 61.59% 31.69% 15.24% 8.21%
Los Angeles Chargers .611 76.13% 39.26% 16.28% 6.68% 3.00%
Kansas City Chiefs .469 29.84% 10.81% 3.38% 1.28% 0.51%
Las Vegas Raiders .412 13.69% 3.17% 0.60% 0.13% 0.06%
NFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Philadelphia Eagles .618 82.62% 56.80% 31.55% 16.80% 7.53%
Washington Commanders .506 43.23% 19.51% 7.37% 3.03% 1.04%
New York Giants .373 8.53% 2.79% 0.64% 0.18% 0.04%
Dallas Cowboys .361 7.47% 2.40% 0.61% 0.20% 0.05%
NFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Green Bay Packers .679 91.66% 70.64% 46.71% 28.01% 14.06%
Detroit Lions .559 59.88% 33.88% 17.27% 9.45% 4.35%
Minnesota Vikings .557 58.50% 29.55% 13.21% 6.40% 2.64%
Chicago Bears .431 17.19% 6.71% 2.23% 0.92% 0.34%
NFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .684 96.44% 71.34% 40.18% 19.31% 8.03%
Atlanta Falcons .395 11.89% 3.26% 0.78% 0.21% 0.07%
New Orleans Saints .373 7.65% 1.70% 0.39% 0.10% 0.01%
Carolina Panthers .176 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Arizona Cardinals .571 64.20% 32.23% 13.13% 5.42% 1.80%
Los Angeles Rams .559 59.36% 29.60% 11.85% 4.67% 1.50%
San Francisco 49ers .554 57.17% 25.17% 9.04% 3.35% 1.04%
Seattle Seahawks .485 34.17% 14.39% 5.03% 1.98% 0.66%My first observation is that despite a significantly lower rating, the Bills are predicted to finish with almost the same record as the Ravens. This is probably because of the strength of schedule, where the Ravens play a moderately tough schedule while Baltimore's remaining schedule strength is among the weakest in the league. Along with the week 1 result, this is enough to give them nearly identical projected final records. These are also the two teams with the best chances to reach the conference championship game, but that's where Baltimore's better rating makes a difference and gives them about a two in five chance to win the AFC. However, Buffalo's week 1 win gives them an edge over Baltimore in the seeding.
There's precedent for a team being as dominant as Baltimore in the final ratings, but it's not especially common in prior seasons. The 2014 Patriots finished at 12.92 with the Seahawks second in the ratings at 9.10. The 2019 Ravens finished at 14.15, ahead of the 49ers at 11.10. The 2013 Seahawks finished at 14.18, over the 49ers at 10.98. The 2007 Patriots dominated the ratings at 18.72, well ahead of the second place Colts at 11.37. The other similar example of dominance atop the ratings this century was the 2001 Rams at 13.88 with the second place Eagles exactly four points lower at 9.88. Based on this, there's probably around a one in five chance each season of a team being as dominant at the top of the ratings as Baltimore is right now, so I suspect the top of the ratings will probably get a bit closer as more games are played this season. I believe they’re the best team in the AFC, but I'm just not convinced that Baltimore's chances of winning the AFC and the Super Bowl are quite as high as in the simulations.
The NFC doesn't have as clear of a favorite, though the Packers moved up with a quality win over the Lions while the Eagles struggled against the Cowboys. The Buccaneers' chances of advancing in the playoffs are bolstered by a very high chance of making the postseason due to being the best team in an otherwise very weak division. In my opinion, the three biggest questions that might shake up the NFC are whether the Commanders are actually better than their current rating, how good the Lions really are, and if a favorite will emerge from the NFC West. On that last point, the west division is an enigma with four teams that are fairly close in the rating, no clearly better team, and no obvious teams that are particularly weak. It's a balanced division, but it's also not especially strong.
I said plenty about the Chiefs last week, but I'll also point out that they have just a 1.28% chance of returning to the Super Bowl according to these simulations. I think that's actually a pretty reasonable estimate based on their current rating, unimpressive point differential the past couple of seasons, and that their future schedule strength is rated #9.
I’ll update these predictions each week as the season progresses, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty this early in the season. Every team but one is given a nonzero probability of winning the Super Bowl due to it being early in the season and more uncertainty about the actual strength of the teams with only one regular season game per team at this point.
Thanks for reading!
These ratings and predictions are based on data from Football Reference.