NFL Computer Ratings and Week 12 Game Predictions
Predictions for the Steelers-Bears game and all the other matchups this weekend that have significant playoff implications
From a playoff standpoint, there’s much more uncertainty in the AFC than in the NFC, so my summary this week will focus on AFC races. But I am intrigued by the matchup between two division leaders when the Buccaneers visit the Rams, and whether this game can help to narrow the playoff race in the NFC South. And the Steelers-Bears game is as close of a matchup as it gets, and the outcome also has serious playoff implications. But let’s begin in the AFC.
Tonight’s game when the Bills play at the Texans is a game that will have a significant impact on the playoff chances for both teams. My ratings favor the Texans, who have improved to 5-5 and have an impressive predictive rating due to their +57 point differential. I’ve asked the question of whether the Texans are for real ever since they surged to near the top of the predictive ratings despite a mediocre record. They’ve won two straight games, and my predictive ratings favor them to win against the Bills. A win tonight would be another step toward showing that the predictive rating is right about the Texans and that they have a strong chance of reaching the playoffs. My season simulator effectively makes the Texans’ playoff chances a toss-up, and a win tonight would certainly shift the probabilities in favor of the Texans. The Bills are currently a strong favorite to get one of the AFC wild card spots, but this outcome could make that much less certain.
The results of simulating the season indicate that the AFC North will probably only get its division winner in the playoffs, with the Steelers and Ravens only having low probabilities of getting a wild card spot. The Patriots and Broncos are clear favorites to win their respective divisions. The Colts are the favorite to win the AFC South with an estimated 73.64% chance of winning the division. This means that more likely than not, the Jaguars and Texans will be seeking wild card bids. The main contenders for the three wild card spots in the AFC appear to be the Bills, Jaguars, Texans, Chiefs, and Chargers. The Bills have a high probability of picking up one of the wild card spots, leaving two spots for the other four teams.
The Jaguars-Cardinals game is also very intriguing and has significant playoff implications. The Cardinals have just a 3-7 record, but their strength of schedule and point differential boost them to the #18 predictive rating. The Jaguars have actually played a tougher schedule and have a +14 point differential with a 6-4 record. But the 2.37 point home advantage makes the prediction closer when the Jaguars play at the Cardinals this weekend. If the Texans can win tonight against Buffalo and then the Cardinals win against the Jaguars on Sunday, that would certainly improve the Jaguars’ chances of reaching the playoffs. However, if the opposite occurs, that would help to solidify the Jaguars as likely being the second playoff team from the AFC South. If both the Texans and Jaguars win, that would help both of their chances against the possibility of three AFC West teams reaching the playoffs. The combination of these two games, both of which are very competitive, may very well help to decide the wild card teams from this division.
As for the AFC West, my ratings favor the Chiefs to finish in second ahead of the Chargers. Although the Chargers are off this weekend, the Chiefs are slight favorites when they host the Colts on Sunday. The Chiefs have a better predictive rating than the Chargers, and some of this is due to having played the #13 schedule to date while the Chargers have faced the #22 schedule. The Chargers have a better record at 7-4, but they have only a +8 point differential. The Chiefs have a mediocre 5-5 record but a +74 point differential. Another factor in the playoff probabilities is that the Chiefs have the #17 future schedule but the Chargers will face the #4 toughest schedule over the remainder of the season. If the Chiefs win at home against the Colts, a prediction that tips in the Chiefs’ favor due to the 2.37 point home advantage, that will help to tighten the AFC West race. However, a Colts win would give the Chargers a full two game advantage over the Chiefs. And the Chargers won 27-21 against the Chiefs in Los Angeles in the opening week of the season giving them an early edge in the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Colts-Chiefs game this week is another game that can significantly tip the playoff chances of multiple teams and help clarify the AFC playoff scenario.
If there’s one more game that’s likely to significantly tip playoff chances for two teams, it’s the Steelers visiting the Bears. The Bears are currently atop the NFC North at 7-3 but have just the #21 predictive rating due to a -6 point differential. The Bears have won a lot of one score games while also getting blown out 52-21 when they visited the Lions earlier in the season. Although neither the Steelers nor the Bears have impressive predictive ratings, the Steelers-Bears game is as close to a toss-up as it gets. If the Bears win, this will keep them on top of the NFC North and increase their playoff chances at the expense of the Lions, Packers, and 49ers. The Bears have a 48.79% chance of reaching the playoffs, but this would improve by winning against the Steelers. But this game also has implications for the AFC North and whether the Steelers can remain ahead of the Ravens. The Jets visit the Ravens this weekend, but Baltimore is heavily favored in that game and likely to extend their winning streak to five games. The Steelers-Bears game is almost completely even in terms of the probability of which team wins, but this game has significant implications for two playoff races.
Finally, in a game between two NFC teams, the Buccaneers are heavy underdogs when they visit the Rams this weekend, but outside of the Steelers-Bears game, this matchup seems to have the best chances of changing the playoff scenarios in the NFC. It actually seems surprising to see the Buccaneers given a 91.65% chance of winning the NFC South despite having a 6-4 record, while the Panthers have a 7.88% chance of a division title with a 6-5 record. The Panthers and Buccaneers have yet to play each other, so the head-to-head tiebreaker remains undetermined. The Panthers are given just a 20.81% probability of winning at San Francisco on Monday night. While both NFC West teams are strongly favored against their respective NFC South opponents, the playoff probabilities could become closer in the NFC South if the Panthers and Rams win.
Predictive Ratings
These ratings are updated through games played on November 17, 2025 and are now determined solely by 2025 regular season games.
These are forward looking ratings, meaning that they’re intended to evaluate how good a team is and predict its future success, but they don’t evaluate the quality of a team’s achievements earlier in the season. These ratings are based purely on points. They don’t factor in wins and losses, only the margin of victory. The ratings don’t explicitly calculate the strength of schedule, though I calculate this afterwards. However, because of how the ratings are calculated, the quality of opponents does influence the ratings.
The offense and defense columns refer to each team’s point scoring tendencies instead of the efficiency ratings that some other rating systems use. The overall rating is approximately the sum of a team’s offense and defense ratings. To predict the score of a game for the home team, take the home team’s offense rating, add half of the home advantage, subtract the visiting team’s defense rating, and add the mean score. Predicting the score is similar for the visiting team. Take the visiting team’s offense rating, subtract half of the home advantage, subtract the home team’s defense rating, and add the mean score. Predicting the margin of victory for a game is done by taking the home team’s rating, adding the home advantage, and subtracting the away team’s rating. For neutral site games, the home advantage is set to zero.
Predictive Ratings
Home advantage: 2.37 points
Mean score: 22.36 points
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
1 12.86 +1.57 Los Angeles Rams 5.13 7.75
2 11.84 +1.26 Seattle Seahawks 7.59 4.24
3 8.73 +0.15 Indianapolis Colts 8.79 -0.08
4 +1 7.81 -0.00 Kansas City Chiefs 2.19 5.63
5 +1 7.76 +0.63 Houston Texans -0.24 8.00
6 -2 6.89 -1.22 Detroit Lions 5.27 1.64
7 5.73 +0.84 Philadelphia Eagles 0.77 4.94
8 4.75 -0.04 Denver Broncos -0.65 5.41
9 3.96 +0.68 Buffalo Bills 5.44 -1.46
10 +5 3.43 +2.37 San Francisco 49ers 2.22 1.20
11 +5 3.28 +3.41 Jacksonville Jaguars 2.38 0.88
12 -1 3.04 +0.20 New England Patriots 1.93 1.13
13 -3 2.71 -0.46 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3.69 -0.98
14 1.69 -0.11 Green Bay Packers -0.99 2.68
15 -3 1.64 -0.67 Baltimore Ravens 3.23 -1.59
16 -3 -0.75 -2.67 Los Angeles Chargers -1.12 0.36
17 +1 -0.79 +0.20 Pittsburgh Steelers -0.51 -0.30
18 -1 -1.27 -1.10 Arizona Cardinals -0.59 -0.74
19 +2 -1.78 +1.31 Dallas Cowboys 5.86 -7.67
20 -1 -3.02 -1.27 Minnesota Vikings -2.51 -0.49
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
21 -1 -3.13 -0.56 Chicago Bears 0.04 -3.18
22 -3.31 -0.14 Atlanta Falcons -3.75 0.41
23 -4.80 -0.48 New York Giants -0.94 -3.90
24 +2 -5.05 +1.12 Carolina Panthers -5.12 0.03
25 -1 -5.22 -0.56 Washington Commanders -1.84 -3.37
26 -1 -5.25 -0.48 Miami Dolphins -3.71 -1.54
27 +2 -7.30 +0.03 New Orleans Saints -7.06 -0.24
28 -1 -7.68 -0.61 New York Jets -3.69 -3.98
29 +1 -8.33 -0.66 Cleveland Browns -8.16 -0.16
30 +1 -8.66 +0.49 Tennessee Titans -6.01 -2.66
31 -3 -8.83 -1.59 Las Vegas Raiders -7.71 -1.15
32 -10.87 -1.66 Cincinnati Bengals 0.02 -10.88 Schedule Strength
The first column is the expected losing percentage (1 minus winning percentage) for a hypothetical average NFL team in each team’s games played to date. Larger numbers mean a tougher schedule. The second column is the same thing, just for future games instead of past games.
The third column is the average opponent rating, with an adjustment for the site of games, for previously played games. The fourth column is the average opponent rating for the future games that each team will play. These two columns are the same schedule strength metrics from my previous NFL articles.
In college football, the two approaches to schedule strength would differ more just because the approach used in the first two columns limits the influence of truly lopsided blowout games. In the NFL, there just aren’t that many blowouts, and the teams are more evenly balanced. Therefore, there’s just not too much of a difference in the two approaches to measuring schedule strength.
Schedule Strength for an Average Team
Home advantage: 2.37 points
Mean score: 22.36 points
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
1 Los Angeles Rams .586 (3) .545 (8) 2.99 (3) 1.84 (6)
2 Seattle Seahawks .536 (10) .527 (12) 1.42 (10) 1.05 (12)
3 Indianapolis Colts .428 (30) .683 (1) -2.46 (29) 6.79 (1)
4 Kansas City Chiefs .522 (13) .496 (17) 0.66 (14) -0.16 (17)
5 Houston Texans .567 (5) .563 (5) 2.65 (5) 2.29 (5)
6 Detroit Lions .483 (17) .485 (21) -0.62 (17) -0.19 (18)
7 Philadelphia Eagles .561 (6) .427 (26) 2.23 (7) -2.66 (27)
8 Denver Broncos .463 (21) .487 (20) -1.43 (23) -0.34 (21)
9 Buffalo Bills .434 (28) .471 (23) -2.34 (28) -1.25 (23)
10 San Francisco 49ers .591 (2) .454 (25) 3.68 (2) -1.56 (25)
11 Jacksonville Jaguars .557 (7) .495 (18) 2.12 (8) -0.24 (20)
12 New England Patriots .372 (32) .393 (29) -4.63 (32) -3.83 (29)
13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers .577 (4) .423 (27) 2.91 (4) -2.39 (26)
14 Green Bay Packers .432 (29) .511 (15) -2.55 (30) 0.48 (15)
15 Baltimore Ravens .530 (12) .392 (31) 1.12 (12) -4.09 (32)
16 Los Angeles Chargers .462 (22) .575 (4) -1.31 (21) 2.57 (4)
17 Pittsburgh Steelers .445 (25) .498 (16) -2.09 (26) -0.03 (16)
18 Arizona Cardinals .546 (9) .600 (3) 1.82 (9) 3.95 (3)
19 Dallas Cowboys .444 (26) .515 (14) -1.91 (25) 0.61 (14)
20 Minnesota Vikings .457 (24) .545 (7) -1.60 (24) 1.81 (7)
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
21 Chicago Bears .410 (31) .535 (10) -3.16 (31) 1.14 (10)
22 Atlanta Falcons .494 (16) .523 (13) -0.17 (16) 0.89 (13)
23 New York Giants .534 (11) .456 (24) 1.21 (11) -1.49 (24)
24 Carolina Panthers .461 (23) .620 (2) -1.41 (22) 4.38 (2)
25 Washington Commanders .507 (15) .530 (11) 0.25 (15) 1.10 (11)
26 Miami Dolphins .470 (19) .410 (28) -1.03 (19) -3.48 (28)
27 New Orleans Saints .556 (8) .387 (32) 2.36 (6) -4.02 (31)
28 New York Jets .439 (27) .494 (19) -2.23 (27) -0.22 (19)
29 Cleveland Browns .467 (20) .393 (30) -1.27 (20) -3.89 (30)
30 Tennessee Titans .617 (1) .548 (6) 4.28 (1) 1.66 (8)
31 Las Vegas Raiders .521 (14) .541 (9) 0.81 (13) 1.40 (9)
32 Cincinnati Bengals .481 (18) .474 (22) -0.71 (18) -0.99 (22)NFL Season Simulation
This season simulation is based on games and computer ratings through November 10, 2025. The season was simulated 20,000 times, and the results of the simulations have been aggregated to predict final records and playoff chances. Tiebreakers for making the postseason are simplified, and the simulations don’t factor in potential issues like injuries, but this is still useful for making an educated guess about the standings at the end of the regular season.
Projected Standings
First up is the projected won-loss records, points scored, and points allowed for each team. The rating column is the team’s overall rating, included as a measure of team strength.
AFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
New England Patriots 13.04 3.94 0.02 .768 461.38 334.43 3.04
Buffalo Bills 11.32 5.65 0.02 .667 486.88 387.97 3.96
Miami Dolphins 6.72 10.26 0.02 .396 353.81 407.54 -5.25
New York Jets 4.20 12.77 0.03 .248 342.19 452.35 -7.68
AFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Baltimore Ravens 9.46 7.52 0.03 .557 454.80 414.18 1.64
Pittsburgh Steelers 9.37 7.60 0.03 .552 406.32 397.37 -0.79
Cincinnati Bengals 4.85 12.13 0.02 .286 392.51 566.40 -10.87
Cleveland Browns 4.67 12.29 0.04 .276 282.69 384.96 -8.33
AFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Indianapolis Colts 11.84 5.13 0.03 .697 509.25 380.80 8.73
Jacksonville Jaguars 10.05 6.92 0.03 .592 416.85 378.96 3.28
Houston Texans 9.37 7.59 0.04 .552 374.35 281.59 7.76
Tennessee Titans 2.81 14.16 0.03 .166 248.99 448.94 -8.66
AFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Denver Broncos 12.77 4.20 0.03 .752 383.03 288.70 4.75
Kansas City Chiefs 9.86 7.11 0.03 .581 425.05 298.46 7.81
Los Angeles Chargers 9.46 7.52 0.03 .557 359.34 371.08 -0.75
Las Vegas Raiders 3.83 13.13 0.04 .226 244.00 408.70 -8.83
NFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Philadelphia Eagles 12.92 4.06 0.03 .761 414.97 325.11 5.73
Dallas Cowboys 7.07 8.91 1.03 .446 490.01 503.88 -1.78
New York Giants 4.51 12.47 0.02 .266 376.01 458.72 -4.80
Washington Commanders 5.02 11.95 0.03 .296 356.94 454.03 -5.22
NFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Detroit Lions 10.72 6.26 0.02 .631 491.41 366.85 6.89
Green Bay Packers 9.72 6.25 1.03 .602 391.06 338.65 1.69
Chicago Bears 9.72 7.25 0.03 .573 403.92 439.16 -3.13
Minnesota Vikings 6.68 10.29 0.03 .394 360.73 407.44 -3.02
NFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10.42 6.55 0.03 .614 430.16 393.01 2.71
Carolina Panthers 7.62 9.35 0.02 .449 301.76 398.49 -5.05
Atlanta Falcons 5.78 11.19 0.03 .341 320.05 393.00 -3.31
New Orleans Saints 4.90 12.06 0.04 .289 271.42 388.13 -7.30
NFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Los Angeles Rams 13.31 3.66 0.02 .784 459.77 285.05 12.86
Seattle Seahawks 12.25 4.72 0.02 .721 496.46 321.61 11.84
San Francisco 49ers 10.69 6.29 0.02 .630 412.54 375.27 3.43
Arizona Cardinals 5.61 11.36 0.02 .331 363.88 431.71 -1.27 Playoff Chances
The next table shows each team’s chances of making the playoffs, winning their division, and having the best record in the conference. The mean playoff seed is an average that uses only the seasons when each team made the playoffs. Div% and Conf% are the probabilities of a team having the best record in their division and conference, respectively.
AFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
New England Patriots 3.04 .768 99.37% 80.28% 41.55% 2.38
Buffalo Bills 3.96 .667 89.42% 19.72% 6.78% 4.75
Miami Dolphins -5.25 .396 0.17% 0.00% 0.00% 6.82
New York Jets -7.68 .248 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
AFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Baltimore Ravens 1.64 .557 58.65% 54.14% 0.11% 4.09
Pittsburgh Steelers -0.79 .552 53.37% 45.79% 0.43% 4.17
Cincinnati Bengals -10.87 .286 0.09% 0.06% 0.00% 5.00
Cleveland Browns -8.33 .276 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 4.00
AFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Indianapolis Colts 8.73 .697 94.36% 73.64% 19.25% 3.05
Jacksonville Jaguars 3.28 .592 66.81% 15.90% 1.46% 5.33
Houston Texans 7.76 .552 49.41% 10.46% 0.18% 5.55
Tennessee Titans -8.66 .166 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
AFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Denver Broncos 4.75 .752 98.56% 89.24% 29.58% 2.36
Kansas City Chiefs 7.81 .581 52.45% 6.84% 0.48% 5.75
Los Angeles Chargers -0.75 .557 37.34% 3.91% 0.18% 5.96
Las Vegas Raiders -8.83 .226 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
NFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Philadelphia Eagles 5.73 .761 99.90% 99.84% 44.16% 1.71
Dallas Cowboys -1.78 .446 4.24% 0.15% 0.00% 6.64
New York Giants -4.80 .266 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
Washington Commanders -5.22 .296 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
NFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Detroit Lions 6.89 .631 85.10% 53.08% 1.16% 4.35
Green Bay Packers 1.69 .602 70.03% 32.03% 0.43% 4.99
Chicago Bears -3.13 .573 48.79% 14.49% 0.42% 5.54
Minnesota Vikings -3.02 .394 2.01% 0.41% 0.00% 6.19
NFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2.71 .614 92.73% 91.65% 0.58% 3.73
Carolina Panthers -5.05 .449 10.71% 7.88% 0.00% 4.68
Atlanta Falcons -3.31 .341 0.46% 0.38% 0.00% 4.50
New Orleans Saints -7.30 .289 0.09% 0.09% 0.00% 4.00
NFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Los Angeles Rams 12.86 .784 99.78% 68.42% 39.34% 2.63
Seattle Seahawks 11.84 .721 98.73% 30.06% 13.46% 4.25
San Francisco 49ers 3.43 .630 87.37% 1.51% 0.43% 5.92
Arizona Cardinals -1.27 .331 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 6.90Possible Regular Season Outcomes
To give a range of how good or bad a team’s final record might be, several percentiles are shown for each team’s final winning percentage.
AFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
New England Patriots .768 100.00% .706 .706 .765 .824 .824
Buffalo Bills .667 99.36% .588 .647 .647 .706 .765
Miami Dolphins .396 5.72% .294 .353 .412 .441 .471
New York Jets .248 0.01% .176 .176 .235 .294 .353
AFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Baltimore Ravens .557 78.78% .471 .529 .559 .588 .647
Pittsburgh Steelers .552 75.35% .471 .529 .529 .588 .647
Cincinnati Bengals .286 0.14% .176 .235 .294 .353 .353
Cleveland Browns .276 0.12% .176 .235 .294 .324 .353
AFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Indianapolis Colts .697 99.72% .588 .647 .706 .765 .765
Jacksonville Jaguars .592 90.76% .529 .529 .588 .647 .706
Houston Texans .552 76.92% .471 .529 .529 .588 .647
Tennessee Titans .166 0.00% .088 .118 .176 .235 .235
AFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Denver Broncos .752 100.00% .647 .706 .765 .824 .824
Kansas City Chiefs .581 87.12% .471 .529 .588 .647 .647
Los Angeles Chargers .557 79.83% .471 .529 .529 .588 .647
Las Vegas Raiders .226 0.00% .147 .176 .235 .294 .294
NFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Philadelphia Eagles .761 100.00% .647 .706 .765 .824 .824
Dallas Cowboys .446 13.32% .353 .382 .441 .500 .559
New York Giants .266 0.00% .176 .235 .265 .294 .353
Washington Commanders .296 0.07% .235 .235 .294 .353 .382
NFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Detroit Lions .631 96.91% .529 .588 .647 .706 .706
Green Bay Packers .602 83.62% .500 .559 .618 .676 .676
Chicago Bears .573 84.28% .471 .529 .588 .647 .647
Minnesota Vikings .394 6.91% .294 .353 .412 .441 .471
NFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .614 94.55% .529 .588 .588 .647 .706
Carolina Panthers .449 19.18% .353 .412 .471 .471 .529
Atlanta Falcons .341 1.22% .235 .294 .353 .412 .412
New Orleans Saints .289 0.11% .176 .235 .294 .353 .382
NFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Los Angeles Rams .784 99.99% .706 .765 .765 .824 .882
Seattle Seahawks .721 99.91% .647 .706 .706 .765 .824
San Francisco 49ers .630 97.84% .529 .588 .647 .647 .706
Arizona Cardinals .331 0.76% .235 .294 .353 .353 .412Postseason Projections
The final table shows each team’s probability of reaching the playoffs, the divisional round, the conference championship, winning their conference, and winning the Super Bowl.
AFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
New England Patriots .768 99.37% 70.83% 35.30% 13.88% 4.72%
Buffalo Bills .667 89.42% 46.71% 21.11% 9.68% 3.40%
Miami Dolphins .396 0.17% 0.03% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01%
New York Jets .248 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Baltimore Ravens .557 58.65% 28.16% 9.74% 4.22% 1.25%
Pittsburgh Steelers .552 53.37% 21.89% 6.73% 2.41% 0.59%
Cincinnati Bengals .286 0.09% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
Cleveland Browns .276 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Indianapolis Colts .697 94.36% 67.99% 44.23% 26.99% 12.75%
Jacksonville Jaguars .592 66.81% 28.98% 12.34% 6.00% 2.00%
Houston Texans .552 49.41% 27.30% 14.75% 8.84% 3.91%
Tennessee Titans .166 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Denver Broncos .752 98.56% 67.81% 36.46% 16.96% 6.38%
Kansas City Chiefs .581 52.45% 28.70% 15.75% 9.65% 4.45%
Los Angeles Chargers .557 37.34% 11.57% 3.58% 1.38% 0.29%
Las Vegas Raiders .226 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Philadelphia Eagles .761 99.90% 79.21% 42.87% 15.05% 7.29%
Dallas Cowboys .446 4.24% 1.10% 0.20% 0.03% 0.01%
New York Giants .266 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Washington Commanders .296 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Detroit Lions .631 85.10% 48.69% 20.35% 9.28% 5.17%
Green Bay Packers .602 70.03% 26.13% 7.56% 2.67% 1.01%
Chicago Bears .573 48.79% 11.86% 2.30% 0.58% 0.17%
Minnesota Vikings .394 2.01% 0.45% 0.08% 0.02% 0.01%
NFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .614 92.73% 38.51% 13.15% 4.50% 1.94%
Carolina Panthers .449 10.71% 2.27% 0.34% 0.07% 0.01%
Atlanta Falcons .341 0.46% 0.13% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00%
New Orleans Saints .289 0.09% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Los Angeles Rams .784 99.78% 84.08% 58.37% 37.03% 25.24%
Seattle Seahawks .721 98.73% 71.75% 43.64% 26.62% 17.52%
San Francisco 49ers .630 87.37% 35.79% 11.12% 4.14% 1.88%
Arizona Cardinals .331 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Week 12 Game Predictions
The thresholds for close games, blowouts, and high and low scoring games are different in the NFL than in college football. That’s because NFL teams are balanced enough in talent to usually avoid truly lopsided scores and there’s just less scoring overall.
Games are ranked based on the projected quality. This factors in the overall strength of the two teams and the potential for a competitive game. Game quality ratings are not directly comparable between college football and the NFL for many of the same reasons I just mentioned. This is just for predicting which NFL games are most and least compelling each weekend.
Beside each team, there are two numbers in parentheses. One is the predicted margin of victory (positive) or defeat (negative), the other is the probability of winning. In the event that a margin is larger than what’s indicated by the predicted score, that’s because there’s nothing in the math that prevents a forecast of negative points with a sufficiently lopsided matchup. This isn’t even close to possible with the current NFL ratings, even with the weakest offense against the strongest defense, but it does occur once in awhile in college football. A negative score is impossible, of course, so the score would be set to zero in those instances. However, there’s no upper limit on how many points a team can be projected to score. But with more parity between NFL teams, even the highest scoring predictions aren’t going to be nearly as crazy as what is possible with the college football ratings.
#1: Indianapolis Colts (-1.45, 45.48%) at Kansas City Chiefs (1.45, 54.06%), Tie (0.46%)
Estimated score: 24.34 - 25.82, Total: 50.16
Quality: 93.38%, Team quality: 90.47%, Competitiveness: 99.49%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 20.86%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.56%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 34.62%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 12.47%
#2: Buffalo Bills (-6.17, 32.11%) at Houston Texans (6.17, 67.47%), Tie (0.41%)
Estimated score: 18.62 - 24.76, Total: 43.38
Quality: 82.63%, Team quality: 78.70%, Competitiveness: 91.08%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 25.25%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 15.93%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 19.74%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 24.17%
#3: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-12.51, 17.44%) at Los Angeles Rams (12.51, 82.26%), Tie (0.30%)
Estimated score: 17.12 - 29.66, Total: 46.77
Quality: 73.72%, Team quality: 76.73%, Competitiveness: 68.04%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 38.33%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 11.53%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 26.65%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 17.67%
#4: Philadelphia Eagles (5.14, 64.69%) at Dallas Cowboys (-5.14, 34.89%), Tie (0.43%)
Estimated score: 29.62 - 24.47, Total: 54.09
Quality: 69.22%, Team quality: 59.49%, Competitiveness: 93.71%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 23.86%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 16.44%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 44.85%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 7.93%
#5: Jacksonville Jaguars (2.18, 56.22%) at Arizona Cardinals (-2.18, 43.33%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 24.30 - 22.08, Total: 46.37
Quality: 67.55%, Team quality: 55.85%, Competitiveness: 98.84%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.19%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.43%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 25.77%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 18.37%
#6: Minnesota Vikings (-7.08, 29.71%) at Green Bay Packers (7.08, 69.89%), Tie (0.40%)
Estimated score: 15.98 - 23.03, Total: 39.02
Quality: 53.15%, Team quality: 41.21%, Competitiveness: 88.40%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 26.69%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 15.41%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 12.71%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 34.19%
#7: Pittsburgh Steelers (-0.03, 49.69%) at Chicago Bears (0.03, 49.85%), Tie (0.46%)
Estimated score: 23.85 - 23.88, Total: 47.73
Quality: 52.20%, Team quality: 37.71%, Competitiveness: 100.00%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 20.59%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.66%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 28.80%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 16.08%
#8: New York Giants (-14.06, 14.65%) at Detroit Lions (14.06, 85.09%), Tie (0.27%)
Estimated score: 18.60 - 32.72, Total: 51.31
Quality: 45.47%, Team quality: 39.10%, Competitiveness: 61.50%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 42.38%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 10.31%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 37.55%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 10.97%
#9: Carolina Panthers (-10.85, 20.81%) at San Francisco 49ers (10.85, 78.85%), Tie (0.33%)
Estimated score: 14.85 - 25.73, Total: 40.58
Quality: 45.15%, Team quality: 35.07%, Competitiveness: 74.88%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 34.27%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 12.82%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 14.99%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 30.40%
#10: Seattle Seahawks (18.13, 91.04%) at Tennessee Titans (-18.13, 8.78%), Tie (0.19%)
Estimated score: 31.43 - 13.29, Total: 44.72
Quality: 36.74%, Team quality: 33.38%, Competitiveness: 44.53%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 53.79%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 7.22%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 22.32%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 21.46%
#11: Atlanta Falcons (1.63, 54.60%) at New Orleans Saints (-1.63, 44.94%), Tie (0.46%)
Estimated score: 17.66 - 16.07, Total: 33.73
Quality: 33.81%, Team quality: 19.73%, Competitiveness: 99.35%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 20.93%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.53%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 6.86%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 48.02%
#12: New York Jets (-11.69, 19.07%) at Baltimore Ravens (11.69, 80.61%), Tie (0.32%)
Estimated score: 19.08 - 30.75, Total: 49.83
Quality: 33.58%, Team quality: 23.01%, Competitiveness: 71.48%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 36.27%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 12.18%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 33.82%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 12.91%
#13: New England Patriots (11.54, 80.31%) at Cincinnati Bengals (-11.54, 19.37%), Tie (0.32%)
Estimated score: 33.99 - 22.44, Total: 56.43
Quality: 30.08%, Team quality: 19.43%, Competitiveness: 72.07%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 35.92%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 12.29%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 51.18%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 5.92%
#14: Cleveland Browns (-1.87, 44.25%) at Las Vegas Raiders (1.87, 55.29%), Tie (0.46%)
Estimated score: 14.16 - 15.99, Total: 30.15
Quality: 19.23%, Team quality: 8.47%, Competitiveness: 99.15%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.03%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.50%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 4.31%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 57.65%I’ll be posting my critique of this week’s college football playoff rankings soon, much of which will involve the statistical case that BYU should have a playoff spot. But until then, thanks for reading!
These ratings are based on data from Pro Football Reference.