NFL Computer Ratings and Predictions for Week 18
The final computer ratings and forecasts before it's time to talk about the playoffs
Happy new year! It's time for the week 18 ratings and predictions for this week's games, which start this afternoon.
As a reminder, the best predictor of a team's performance should be the advanced (Adv.) ratings, which accounts for margin of victory and the quality of a team's opponents. The MOV+ and MOV take into account margin of victory but do not factor in the strength of a team's schedule, so they should be a bit less accurate. Finally, the Win% ratings only take into account a team's whether a team won or lost their games, so this should be the least accurate predictor of a team's future performance. The advanced rating for NFL teams is mostly the same as my predictive rating for college football teams. I could calculate a strength of record rating and combine them together like I do with my college football ratings, but schedule strengths are similar enough in the NFL that it's better to just look at the standings.
Team Ratings
Here are the ratings:
To calculate a the expected margin of victory for the home team, take the home team's rating, add the home advantage, and subtract the visiting team's rating. For a game played at a neutral site, just repeat the process but skip the step of adding the home advantage.
Schedule Strength
Unlike in college football, I'm calculating schedule strength for the entire schedule instead of just games that have already been played. The first column, "Rating" is a team's rating according to the advanced rating system. The second column, "Opp. Win%" is the average winning percentage of each team's opponents. The next column, "Opp. MOV+ Rtg." is the average of the team's opponents' ratings according to the MOV+ system, which is probably a bit less accurate than the advanced system. The "Opp. Adv. Rtg." is like the previous column, but averages the ratings of each team's opponents according to the advanced system, and should be more accurate. The differences are mostly small between the columns, but they are present.
The "Adv. SOS" column is the expected percentage of games that a team is expected to lose based on their advanced rating and the advanced rating of their opponents. This attempts to answer the question of how difficult a team's schedule is for that team. The "Exp. Wins" uses the "Adv. SOS" column to estimate the number of games each team would be expected to win over the course of the season. As an example, the average opponent advanced rating of 0.86 for the Detroit Lions is a relatively difficult schedule for an average NFL team, but because the Lions are at the top of the rankings, they would only be expected to lose 25.1% of their games against a schedule of this difficulty.
Game Predictions
As always, the advanced ratings should be the most accurate predictor of future performance, but the other options are mainly here for comparison and later verification of the predictions.
Cleveland Browns (CLE) at Baltimore Ravens (BAL)
Winning percentage (Win%) forecast: CLE (-26.28, 9.86%) | BAL (26.28, 89.99%) | Tie (0.15%)
Unadjusted margin of victory (MOV) forecast: CLE (-19.31, 14.85%) | BAL (19.31, 85.00%) | Tie (0.15%)
Adjusted margin of victory (MOV+) forecast: CLE (-19.13, 15.02%) | BAL (19.13, 84.83%) | Tie (0.15%)
Advanced (Adv.) forecast: CLE (-19.35, 10.07%) | BAL (19.35, 89.81%) | Tie (0.12%)
Probability of competitive game: 16.27% | Competitive quality: 30.30% | Quality of teams: 22.02% | Game quality: 24.49%
Cincinnati Bengals (CIN) at Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT)
Winning percentage (Win%) forecast: CIN (-7.57, 31.71%) | PIT (7.57, 67.71%) | Tie (0.58%)
Unadjusted margin of victory (MOV) forecast: CIN (-1.50, 45.98%) | PIT (1.50, 53.60%) | Tie (0.41%)
Adjusted margin of victory (MOV+) forecast: CIN (-1.69, 45.50%) | PIT (1.69, 54.10%) | Tie (0.40%)
Advanced (Adv.) forecast: CIN (-2.34, 41.86%) | PIT (2.34, 57.64%) | Tie (0.51%)
Probability of competitive game: 52.66% | Competitive quality: 98.07% | Quality of teams: 64.05% | Game quality: 73.83%
Buffalo Bills (BUF) at New England Patriots (NE)
Winning percentage (Win%) forecast: BUF (27.99, 90.88%) | NE (-27.99, 8.99%) | Tie (0.14%)
Unadjusted margin of victory (MOV) forecast: BUF (17.13, 82.79%) | NE (-17.13, 17.03%) | Tie (0.18%)
Adjusted margin of victory (MOV+) forecast: BUF (16.01, 81.52%) | NE (-16.01, 18.29%) | Tie (0.19%)
Advanced (Adv.) forecast: BUF (16.23, 87.04%) | NE (-16.23, 12.80%) | Tie (0.16%)
Probability of competitive game: 22.05% | Competitive quality: 41.07% | Quality of teams: 27.43% | Game quality: 31.38%
Carolina Panthers (CAR) at Atlanta Falcons (ATL)
Winning percentage (Win%) forecast: CAR (-16.03, 18.20%) | ATL (16.03, 81.47%) | Tie (0.33%)
Unadjusted margin of victory (MOV) forecast: CAR (-12.25, 23.39%) | ATL (12.25, 76.35%) | Tie (0.25%)
Adjusted margin of victory (MOV+) forecast: CAR (-11.55, 24.51%) | ATL (11.55, 75.23%) | Tie (0.26%)
Advanced (Adv.) forecast: CAR (-11.16, 19.57%) | ATL (11.16, 80.17%) | Tie (0.26%)
Probability of competitive game: 34.45% | Competitive quality: 64.16% | Quality of teams: 13.32% | Game quality: 22.49%
Chicago Bears (CHI) at Green Bay Packers (GB)
Winning percentage (Win%) forecast: CHI (-22.94, 11.90%) | GB (22.94, 87.90%) | Tie (0.20%)
Unadjusted margin of victory (MOV) forecast: CHI (-13.19, 21.99%) | GB (13.19, 77.77%) | Tie (0.24%)
Adjusted margin of victory (MOV+) forecast: CHI (-13.04, 22.21%) | GB (13.04, 77.56%) | Tie (0.23%)
Advanced (Adv.) forecast: CHI (-12.90, 16.84%) | GB (12.90, 82.94%) | Tie (0.22%)
Probability of competitive game: 29.89% | Competitive quality: 55.66% | Quality of teams: 45.70% | Game quality: 48.80%
Houston Texans (HOU) at Tennessee Titans (TEN)
Winning percentage (Win%) forecast: HOU (18.90, 84.56%) | TEN (-18.90, 15.18%) | Tie (0.27%)
Unadjusted margin of victory (MOV) forecast: HOU (6.63, 65.82%) | TEN (-6.63, 33.83%) | Tie (0.36%)
Adjusted margin of victory (MOV+) forecast: HOU (6.10, 64.67%) | TEN (-6.10, 34.98%) | Tie (0.35%)
Advanced (Adv.) forecast: HOU (6.41, 69.83%) | TEN (-6.41, 29.76%) | Tie (0.40%)
Probability of competitive game: 46.36% | Competitive quality: 86.33% | Quality of teams: 20.66% | Game quality: 33.27%
Jacksonville Jaguars (JAX) at Indianapolis Colts (IND)
Winning percentage (Win%) forecast: JAX (-11.21, 24.97%) | IND (11.21, 74.57%) | Tie (0.47%)
Unadjusted margin of victory (MOV) forecast: JAX (-5.25, 36.89%) | IND (5.25, 62.74%) | Tie (0.38%)
Adjusted margin of victory (MOV+) forecast: JAX (-3.95, 39.94%) | IND (3.95, 59.69%) | Tie (0.38%)
Advanced (Adv.) forecast: JAX (-3.60, 37.82%) | IND (3.60, 61.70%) | Tie (0.48%)
Probability of competitive game: 51.27% | Competitive quality: 95.49% | Quality of teams: 22.32% | Game quality: 36.23%
New Orleans Saints (NO) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB)
Winning percentage (Win%) forecast: NO (-14.33, 20.32%) | TB (14.33, 79.31%) | Tie (0.38%)
Unadjusted margin of victory (MOV) forecast: NO (-11.62, 24.38%) | TB (11.62, 75.35%) | Tie (0.27%)
Adjusted margin of victory (MOV+) forecast: NO (-11.59, 24.44%) | TB (11.59, 75.31%) | Tie (0.26%)
Advanced (Adv.) forecast: NO (-12.22, 17.84%) | TB (12.22, 81.92%) | Tie (0.24%)
Probability of competitive game: 31.64% | Competitive quality: 58.92% | Quality of teams: 42.52% | Game quality: 47.40%
New York Giants (NYG) at Philadelphia Eagles (PHI)
Winning percentage (Win%) forecast: NYG (-27.99, 8.99%) | PHI (27.99, 90.88%) | Tie (0.14%)
Unadjusted margin of victory (MOV) forecast: NYG (-19.56, 14.62%) | PHI (19.56, 85.23%) | Tie (0.15%)
Adjusted margin of victory (MOV+) forecast: NYG (-19.07, 15.08%) | PHI (19.07, 84.78%) | Tie (0.15%)
Advanced (Adv.) forecast: NYG (-19.01, 10.33%) | PHI (19.01, 89.55%) | Tie (0.12%)
Probability of competitive game: 16.82% | Competitive quality: 31.33% | Quality of teams: 22.79% | Game quality: 25.34%
Washington Commanders (WAS) at Dallas Cowboys (DAL)
Winning percentage (Win%) forecast: WAS (12.80, 77.11%) | DAL (-12.80, 22.47%) | Tie (0.42%)
Unadjusted margin of victory (MOV) forecast: WAS (11.19, 74.63%) | DAL (-11.19, 25.10%) | Tie (0.27%)
Adjusted margin of victory (MOV+) forecast: WAS (9.29, 71.25%) | DAL (-9.29, 28.45%) | Tie (0.30%)
Advanced (Adv.) forecast: WAS (6.59, 70.31%) | DAL (-6.59, 29.29%) | Tie (0.40%)
Probability of competitive game: 45.96% | Competitive quality: 85.60% | Quality of teams: 40.65% | Game quality: 52.10%
Kansas City Chiefs (KC) at Denver Broncos (DEN)
Winning percentage (Win%) forecast: KC (21.86, 87.10%) | DEN (-21.86, 12.68%) | Tie (0.21%)
Unadjusted margin of victory (MOV) forecast: KC (-0.25, 49.15%) | DEN (0.25, 50.43%) | Tie (0.42%)
Adjusted margin of victory (MOV+) forecast: KC (-0.38, 48.84%) | DEN (0.38, 50.76%) | Tie (0.40%)
Advanced (Adv.) forecast: KC (0.72, 52.21%) | DEN (-0.72, 47.27%) | Tie (0.52%)
Probability of competitive game: 53.60% | Competitive quality: 99.81% | Quality of teams: 79.37% | Game quality: 85.67%
Miami Dolphins (MIA) at New York Jets (NYJ)
Winning percentage (Win%) forecast: MIA (10.99, 74.19%) | NYJ (-10.99, 25.33%) | Tie (0.48%)
Unadjusted margin of victory (MOV) forecast: MIA (2.88, 57.05%) | NYJ (-2.88, 42.55%) | Tie (0.40%)
Adjusted margin of victory (MOV+) forecast: MIA (2.65, 56.49%) | NYJ (-2.65, 43.12%) | Tie (0.39%)
Advanced (Adv.) forecast: MIA (1.76, 55.70%) | NYJ (-1.76, 43.79%) | Tie (0.51%)
Probability of competitive game: 53.11% | Competitive quality: 98.91% | Quality of teams: 26.92% | Game quality: 41.54%
Los Angeles Chargers (LAC) at Las Vegas Raiders (LV)
Winning percentage (Win%) forecast: LAC (16.59, 82.13%) | LV (-16.59, 17.55%) | Tie (0.32%)
Unadjusted margin of victory (MOV) forecast: LAC (10.81, 73.99%) | LV (-10.81, 25.73%) | Tie (0.28%)
Adjusted margin of victory (MOV+) forecast: LAC (10.21, 72.94%) | LV (-10.21, 26.78%) | Tie (0.28%)
Advanced (Adv.) forecast: LAC (9.60, 77.25%) | LV (-9.60, 22.44%) | Tie (0.31%)
Probability of competitive game: 38.60% | Competitive quality: 71.88% | Quality of teams: 37.33% | Game quality: 46.44%
Seattle Seahawks (SEA) at Los Angeles Rams (LAR)
Winning percentage (Win%) forecast: SEA (-4.68, 38.06%) | LAR (4.68, 61.28%) | Tie (0.66%)
Unadjusted margin of victory (MOV) forecast: SEA (-0.56, 48.36%) | LAR (0.56, 51.22%) | Tie (0.42%)
Adjusted margin of victory (MOV+) forecast: SEA (-0.91, 47.48%) | LAR (0.91, 52.12%) | Tie (0.40%)
Advanced (Adv.) forecast: SEA (-1.52, 44.58%) | LAR (1.52, 54.90%) | Tie (0.52%)
Probability of competitive game: 53.26% | Competitive quality: 99.18% | Quality of teams: 54.83% | Game quality: 66.81%
San Francisco 49ers (SF) at Arizona Cardinals (ARI)
Winning percentage (Win%) forecast: SF (-5.08, 37.14%) | ARI (5.08, 62.21%) | Tie (0.65%)
Unadjusted margin of victory (MOV) forecast: SF (-2.94, 42.40%) | ARI (2.94, 57.20%) | Tie (0.40%)
Adjusted margin of victory (MOV+) forecast: SF (-3.06, 42.11%) | ARI (3.06, 57.51%) | Tie (0.39%)
Advanced (Adv.) forecast: SF (-2.85, 40.19%) | ARI (2.85, 59.32%) | Tie (0.50%)
Probability of competitive game: 52.16% | Competitive quality: 97.15% | Quality of teams: 51.39% | Game quality: 63.54%
Minnesota Vikings (MIN) at Detroit Lions (DET)
Winning percentage (Win%) forecast: MIN (-5.90, 35.28%) | DET (5.90, 64.09%) | Tie (0.63%)
Unadjusted margin of victory (MOV) forecast: MIN (-6.44, 34.23%) | DET (6.44, 65.41%) | Tie (0.36%)
Adjusted margin of victory (MOV+) forecast: MIN (-4.41, 38.84%) | DET (4.41, 60.79%) | Tie (0.37%)
Advanced (Adv.) forecast: MIN (-5.85, 31.23%) | DET (5.85, 68.35%) | Tie (0.42%)
Probability of competitive game: 47.50% | Competitive quality: 88.46% | Quality of teams: 88.45% | Game quality: 88.45%
This article uses data from Football Reference to generate these predictions. If you’d like to read more content like this, please click the subscribe button below. You can also support The Linked Letters by sharing this article on social media.