NFL Computer Ratings and Predictions for Week 11
A detailed look at three teams that are challenging for the predictive ratings to rank and forecast
The Bears are what we thought they were. They’re what we thought they were. If you’re familiar with press conferences conducted by NFL head coaches, you probably know where this commentary leads.
At this point in the season, we know what to expect from most of the teams in the NFL, so I’m going to discuss three teams that are a bit more uncertain. Some of this is going to seem familiar from previous articles, with a detailed look at Houston and Baltimore. There’s a third team that I also believe is a bit of an enigma based on how their record compares to their predictive rating. Read on to find out which other team I find so intriguing. And I’m also going to talk about playoffs, at least for the purpose of discussing the extent to which the Ravens have revived their playoff chances. Earlier in the season, the Ravens’ chances of reaching the postseason were quite low, but has a three game winning streak put them back in contention?
There’s not that much movement in this week’s ratings, at least not compared to the bigger shifts earlier in the season. The weight of last season’s games and the preseason has been diminished to almost zero. That means even though the Chiefs lost by two points to the Bears in the third game of the preseason, it’s not doing a lot to lower the Chiefs’ rating now. After 10 weeks of football, the predictive ratings should have a good handle on the quality of teams this season. Each game played last season gets only a 2% weight this week, and each preseason game only gets a 4% weight. So these ratings are now almost entirely based on games played in the 2025 regular season.
No, I couldn’t resist putting in a clip of Dennis Green’s legendary rant. Thanks, coach.
And with that, let’s look at the ratings this week.
Predictive Ratings
These are forward looking ratings, meaning that they’re intended to evaluate how good a team is and predict its future success, but they don’t evaluate the quality of a team’s achievements earlier in the season. These ratings are based purely on points. They don’t factor in wins and losses, only the margin of victory. The ratings don’t explicitly calculate the strength of schedule, though I calculate this afterwards. However, because of how the ratings are calculated, the quality of opponents does influence the ratings.
The offense and defense columns refer to each team’s point scoring tendencies instead of the efficiency ratings that some other rating systems use. The overall rating is approximately the sum of a team’s offense and defense ratings. To predict the score of a game for the home team, take the home team’s offense rating, add half of the home advantage, subtract the visiting team’s defense rating, and add the mean score. Predicting the score is similar for the visiting team. Take the visiting team’s offense rating, subtract half of the home advantage, subtract the home team’s defense rating, and add the mean score. Predicting the margin of victory for a game is done by taking the home team’s rating, adding the home advantage, and subtracting the away team’s rating. For neutral site games, the home advantage is set to zero.
Predictive Ratings
Home advantage: 2.22 points
Mean score: 22.37 points
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
1 11.29 +1.41 Los Angeles Rams 4.52 6.72
2 10.57 +1.00 Seattle Seahawks 7.19 3.40
3 8.58 -0.24 Indianapolis Colts 8.27 0.23
4 +1 8.11 +0.90 Detroit Lions 7.06 1.03
5 -1 7.81 +0.39 Kansas City Chiefs 1.83 6.01
6 7.13 -0.05 Houston Texans -0.08 7.19
7 +2 4.89 +0.01 Philadelphia Eagles 1.91 2.91
8 -1 4.79 -1.14 Denver Broncos -0.89 5.75
9 -1 3.28 -1.71 Buffalo Bills 3.82 -0.54
10 3.17 -0.90 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2.51 0.70
11 +2 2.84 +1.17 New England Patriots 2.02 0.85
12 +2 2.31 +0.84 Baltimore Ravens 3.41 -1.08
13 +2 1.93 +0.82 Los Angeles Chargers 0.36 1.59
14 -3 1.81 -1.00 Green Bay Packers -1.21 3.07
15 -3 1.06 -0.71 San Francisco 49ers 0.42 0.66
16 +3 -0.13 +0.86 Jacksonville Jaguars 0.79 -0.89
17 -1 -0.17 -1.09 Arizona Cardinals -0.82 0.65
18 -1 -0.99 -1.12 Pittsburgh Steelers -0.36 -0.65
19 -1 -1.75 -1.25 Minnesota Vikings -1.66 -0.10
20 -2.57 -0.03 Chicago Bears 0.37 -2.96
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
21 -3.09 -0.21 Dallas Cowboys 4.94 -8.01
22 +1 -3.16 +0.82 Atlanta Falcons -4.24 1.12
23 +1 -4.32 -0.00 New York Giants -1.21 -3.11
24 -2 -4.66 -0.92 Washington Commanders -0.78 -3.85
25 +1 -4.76 +1.55 Miami Dolphins -2.52 -2.26
26 -1 -6.17 -0.56 Carolina Panthers -6.29 0.08
27 +1 -7.08 +0.06 New York Jets -2.98 -4.09
28 +2 -7.24 +1.30 Las Vegas Raiders -6.71 -0.53
29 -7.34 +1.10 New Orleans Saints -6.59 -0.76
30 -3 -7.67 -0.57 Cleveland Browns -7.86 0.18
31 +1 -9.15 +0.02 Tennessee Titans -5.99 -3.16
32 -1 -9.20 -0.59 Cincinnati Bengals 0.84 -10.04 Schedule Strength
The first column is the expected losing percentage (1 minus winning percentage) for a hypothetical average NFL team in each team’s games played to date. Larger numbers mean a tougher schedule. The second column is the same thing, just for future games instead of past games.
The third column is the average opponent rating, with an adjustment for the site of games, for previously played games. The fourth column is the average opponent rating for the future games that each team will play. These two columns are the same schedule strength metrics from my previous NFL articles.
In college football, the two approaches to schedule strength would differ more just because the approach used in the first two columns limits the influence of truly lopsided blowout games. In the NFL, there just aren’t that many blowouts, and the teams are more evenly balanced. Therefore, there’s just not too much of a difference in the two approaches to measuring schedule strength.
Schedule Strength for an Average Team
Home advantage: 2.22 points
Mean score: 22.37 points
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
1 Los Angeles Rams .536 (9) .576 (3) 1.18 (11) 2.84 (3)
2 Seattle Seahawks .488 (19) .552 (6) -0.48 (19) 2.05 (6)
3 Indianapolis Colts .439 (27) .637 (1) -2.11 (27) 5.10 (1)
4 Detroit Lions .473 (22) .512 (16) -0.95 (22) 0.66 (15)
5 Kansas City Chiefs .508 (15) .528 (9) 0.22 (15) 0.97 (8)
6 Houston Texans .563 (3) .546 (7) 2.40 (3) 1.70 (7)
7 Philadelphia Eagles .554 (7) .470 (25) 1.96 (7) -1.11 (25)
8 Denver Broncos .452 (25) .518 (14) -1.76 (25) 0.73 (14)
9 Buffalo Bills .429 (29) .479 (22) -2.50 (29) -0.86 (22)
10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers .555 (6) .449 (27) 2.14 (5) -1.65 (27)
11 New England Patriots .388 (32) .383 (32) -4.00 (32) -4.15 (32)
12 Baltimore Ravens .558 (5) .396 (30) 2.07 (6) -3.81 (30)
13 Los Angeles Chargers .453 (24) .567 (5) -1.61 (24) 2.34 (5)
14 Green Bay Packers .437 (28) .521 (13) -2.35 (28) 0.84 (13)
15 San Francisco 49ers .583 (2) .464 (26) 3.28 (2) -1.26 (26)
16 Jacksonville Jaguars .562 (4) .496 (19) 2.24 (4) -0.21 (19)
17 Arizona Cardinals .525 (13) .568 (4) 1.01 (12) 2.68 (4)
18 Pittsburgh Steelers .494 (16) .472 (23) -0.24 (17) -1.02 (24)
19 Minnesota Vikings .488 (18) .523 (12) -0.46 (18) 0.96 (9)
20 Chicago Bears .420 (30) .528 (8) -2.77 (30) 0.91 (10)
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
21 Dallas Cowboys .463 (23) .514 (15) -1.25 (23) 0.60 (16)
22 Atlanta Falcons .511 (14) .489 (21) 0.42 (14) -0.38 (21)
23 New York Giants .534 (11) .472 (24) 1.21 (10) -0.89 (23)
24 Washington Commanders .527 (12) .511 (17) 0.99 (13) 0.41 (17)
25 Miami Dolphins .493 (17) .402 (29) -0.19 (16) -3.64 (29)
26 Carolina Panthers .451 (26) .584 (2) -1.78 (26) 3.00 (2)
27 New York Jets .415 (31) .502 (18) -3.03 (31) 0.04 (18)
28 Las Vegas Raiders .535 (10) .526 (10) 1.30 (9) 0.88 (11)
29 New Orleans Saints .546 (8) .387 (31) 1.90 (8) -4.01 (31)
30 Cleveland Browns .480 (20) .406 (28) -0.72 (20) -3.37 (28)
31 Tennessee Titans .622 (1) .526 (11) 4.44 (1) 0.86 (12)
32 Cincinnati Bengals .476 (21) .492 (20) -0.86 (21) -0.36 (20)NFL Season Simulation Results
This season simulation is based on games and computer ratings through November 10, 2025. The season was simulated 20,000 times, and the results of the simulations have been aggregated to predict final records and playoff chances. Tiebreakers for making the postseason are simplified, and the simulations don’t factor in potential issues like injuries, but this is still useful for making an educated guess about the standings at the end of the regular season.
Projected Standings
First up is the projected won-loss records, points scored, and points allowed for each team. The rating column is the team’s overall rating, included as a measure of team strength.
AFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
New England Patriots 12.75 4.22 0.03 .751 462.51 340.53 2.84
Buffalo Bills 10.77 6.20 0.03 .634 460.60 377.50 3.28
Miami Dolphins 6.30 10.67 0.03 .371 368.87 422.63 -4.76
New York Jets 4.54 12.43 0.03 .268 351.48 454.26 -7.08
AFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Baltimore Ravens 9.23 7.74 0.03 .544 456.82 414.11 2.31
Pittsburgh Steelers 8.98 7.98 0.03 .530 405.32 413.29 -0.99
Cincinnati Bengals 5.22 11.76 0.03 .308 406.20 560.69 -9.20
Cleveland Browns 5.08 11.88 0.04 .300 284.85 383.15 -7.67
AFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Indianapolis Colts 12.11 4.86 0.03 .713 511.93 372.88 8.58
Houston Texans 9.00 7.96 0.04 .530 378.20 283.56 7.13
Jacksonville Jaguars 9.00 7.96 0.03 .531 392.75 406.74 -0.13
Tennessee Titans 3.06 13.90 0.03 .181 251.32 455.93 -9.15
AFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Denver Broncos 12.22 4.74 0.04 .720 375.50 286.48 4.79
Los Angeles Chargers 10.38 6.58 0.03 .612 386.39 352.24 1.93
Kansas City Chiefs 10.36 6.60 0.04 .611 420.48 291.64 7.81
Las Vegas Raiders 4.44 12.52 0.04 .263 258.65 400.48 -7.24
NFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Philadelphia Eagles 12.18 4.79 0.03 .717 430.03 357.29 4.89
Dallas Cowboys 6.24 9.73 1.03 .397 477.85 521.13 -3.09
Washington Commanders 5.57 11.40 0.03 .329 375.77 467.44 -4.66
New York Giants 4.89 12.08 0.03 .289 374.39 454.35 -4.32
NFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Detroit Lions 11.45 5.52 0.03 .675 520.62 378.96 8.11
Green Bay Packers 9.21 6.75 1.04 .572 383.99 339.15 1.81
Chicago Bears 9.24 7.72 0.03 .545 411.54 447.35 -2.57
Minnesota Vikings 7.46 9.51 0.03 .440 374.96 407.97 -1.75
NFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10.97 6.00 0.03 .646 414.28 362.62 3.17
Carolina Panthers 6.89 10.08 0.03 .406 278.83 386.09 -6.17
Atlanta Falcons 6.44 10.52 0.04 .380 308.77 371.48 -3.16
New Orleans Saints 4.89 12.07 0.04 .289 272.91 389.97 -7.34
NFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Seattle Seahawks 12.61 4.36 0.03 .743 497.49 327.48 10.57
Los Angeles Rams 12.65 4.31 0.03 .745 455.81 292.46 11.29
San Francisco 49ers 9.90 7.08 0.03 .583 382.69 377.14 1.06
Arizona Cardinals 6.43 10.54 0.03 .379 363.44 398.26 -0.17 Playoff Chances
The next table shows each team’s chances of making the playoffs, winning their division, and having the best record in the conference. The mean playoff seed is an average that uses only the seasons when each team made the playoffs. Div% and Conf% are the probabilities of a team having the best record in their division and conference, respectively.
AFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
New England Patriots 2.84 .751 98.73% 82.45% 36.73% 2.45
Buffalo Bills 3.28 .634 81.97% 17.54% 4.50% 5.00
Miami Dolphins -4.76 .371 0.22% 0.01% 0.00% 6.78
New York Jets -7.08 .268 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 7.00
AFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Baltimore Ravens 2.31 .544 60.04% 56.99% 0.15% 4.02
Pittsburgh Steelers -0.99 .530 48.70% 42.09% 0.36% 4.19
Cincinnati Bengals -9.20 .308 0.77% 0.69% 0.00% 4.26
Cleveland Browns -7.67 .300 0.27% 0.22% 0.00% 4.48
AFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Indianapolis Colts 8.58 .713 96.78% 86.33% 30.62% 2.45
Houston Texans 7.13 .530 41.77% 7.84% 0.28% 5.66
Jacksonville Jaguars -0.13 .531 32.37% 5.83% 0.45% 5.70
Tennessee Titans -9.15 .181 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
AFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Denver Broncos 4.79 .720 96.20% 66.36% 20.66% 3.19
Los Angeles Chargers 1.93 .612 72.48% 14.74% 2.50% 5.25
Kansas City Chiefs 7.81 .611 69.65% 18.89% 3.74% 5.04
Las Vegas Raiders -7.24 .263 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 6.50
NFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Philadelphia Eagles 4.89 .717 99.59% 99.47% 25.45% 2.30
Dallas Cowboys -3.09 .397 2.86% 0.39% 0.00% 6.37
Washington Commanders -4.66 .329 0.27% 0.15% 0.00% 5.19
New York Giants -4.32 .289 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 7.00
NFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Detroit Lions 8.11 .675 95.31% 75.39% 11.00% 3.34
Green Bay Packers 1.81 .572 64.59% 16.32% 0.43% 5.59
Chicago Bears -2.57 .545 45.89% 6.62% 0.32% 5.96
Minnesota Vikings -1.75 .440 11.00% 1.67% 0.01% 6.20
NFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3.17 .646 97.00% 96.23% 3.50% 3.49
Carolina Panthers -6.17 .406 5.32% 2.59% 0.01% 5.39
Atlanta Falcons -3.16 .380 2.40% 1.12% 0.00% 5.46
New Orleans Saints -7.34 .289 0.06% 0.05% 0.00% 4.27
NFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Seattle Seahawks 10.57 .743 99.33% 47.49% 27.96% 3.48
Los Angeles Rams 11.29 .745 99.20% 51.23% 31.00% 3.30
San Francisco 49ers 1.06 .583 74.61% 1.26% 0.34% 6.16
Arizona Cardinals -0.17 .379 2.55% 0.01% 0.00% 6.71Possible Regular Season Outcomes
To give a range of how good or bad a team’s final record might be, several percentiles are shown for each team’s final winning percentage.
AFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
New England Patriots .751 99.97% .647 .706 .765 .824 .824
Buffalo Bills .634 95.75% .529 .588 .647 .706 .706
Miami Dolphins .371 3.75% .294 .294 .353 .412 .471
New York Jets .268 0.15% .176 .235 .265 .294 .353
AFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Baltimore Ravens .544 71.97% .471 .471 .529 .588 .647
Pittsburgh Steelers .530 64.18% .412 .471 .529 .588 .647
Cincinnati Bengals .308 0.66% .235 .235 .294 .353 .412
Cleveland Browns .300 0.66% .176 .235 .294 .353 .412
AFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Indianapolis Colts .713 99.85% .647 .647 .706 .765 .824
Houston Texans .530 65.50% .412 .471 .529 .588 .647
Jacksonville Jaguars .531 64.90% .412 .471 .529 .588 .647
Tennessee Titans .181 0.00% .118 .118 .176 .235 .294
AFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Denver Broncos .720 99.89% .647 .647 .706 .765 .824
Los Angeles Chargers .612 93.52% .529 .588 .588 .647 .706
Kansas City Chiefs .611 91.97% .529 .588 .588 .647 .706
Las Vegas Raiders .263 0.07% .176 .235 .235 .294 .353
NFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Philadelphia Eagles .717 99.76% .647 .647 .706 .765 .824
Dallas Cowboys .397 4.79% .324 .324 .382 .441 .500
Washington Commanders .329 1.17% .235 .294 .353 .353 .412
New York Giants .289 0.15% .176 .235 .294 .353 .382
NFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Detroit Lions .675 99.00% .588 .647 .676 .706 .765
Green Bay Packers .572 70.94% .471 .500 .559 .618 .676
Chicago Bears .545 70.57% .471 .471 .529 .588 .647
Minnesota Vikings .440 21.59% .353 .412 .412 .471 .529
NFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .646 97.12% .529 .588 .647 .706 .765
Carolina Panthers .406 8.21% .324 .353 .412 .471 .471
Atlanta Falcons .380 5.75% .294 .353 .353 .412 .471
New Orleans Saints .289 0.15% .176 .235 .294 .353 .412
NFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Seattle Seahawks .743 99.91% .647 .706 .765 .765 .824
Los Angeles Rams .745 99.95% .647 .706 .765 .824 .824
San Francisco 49ers .583 87.76% .471 .529 .588 .647 .647
Arizona Cardinals .379 5.38% .294 .353 .353 .412 .471Postseason Projections
The final table shows each team’s probability of reaching the playoffs, the divisional round, the conference championship, winning their conference, and winning the Super Bowl.
AFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
New England Patriots .751 98.73% 67.79% 33.86% 13.31% 4.83%
Buffalo Bills .634 81.97% 39.85% 17.38% 7.92% 2.71%
Miami Dolphins .371 0.22% 0.03% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01%
New York Jets .268 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Baltimore Ravens .544 60.04% 30.13% 11.24% 4.90% 1.73%
Pittsburgh Steelers .530 48.70% 20.02% 6.29% 2.10% 0.50%
Cincinnati Bengals .308 0.77% 0.19% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00%
Cleveland Browns .300 0.27% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Indianapolis Colts .713 96.78% 74.53% 48.59% 29.37% 14.72%
Houston Texans .530 41.77% 22.86% 12.04% 7.04% 3.35%
Jacksonville Jaguars .531 32.37% 11.04% 3.74% 1.47% 0.46%
Tennessee Titans .181 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Denver Broncos .720 96.20% 60.85% 31.70% 14.64% 6.06%
Los Angeles Chargers .612 72.48% 31.30% 12.07% 5.22% 1.65%
Kansas City Chiefs .611 69.65% 41.31% 23.06% 14.01% 6.52%
Las Vegas Raiders .263 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Philadelphia Eagles .717 99.59% 70.71% 34.47% 12.85% 6.04%
Dallas Cowboys .397 2.86% 0.70% 0.10% 0.03% 0.01%
Washington Commanders .329 0.27% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
New York Giants .289 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Detroit Lions .675 95.31% 66.41% 35.91% 17.76% 10.07%
Green Bay Packers .572 64.59% 23.00% 7.08% 2.44% 1.00%
Chicago Bears .545 45.89% 11.18% 2.10% 0.60% 0.17%
Minnesota Vikings .440 11.00% 2.73% 0.61% 0.18% 0.08%
NFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .646 97.00% 47.14% 17.73% 6.98% 2.97%
Carolina Panthers .406 5.32% 0.91% 0.11% 0.01% 0.01%
Atlanta Falcons .380 2.40% 0.56% 0.06% 0.03% 0.01%
New Orleans Saints .289 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Seattle Seahawks .743 99.33% 74.30% 45.49% 26.25% 16.63%
Los Angeles Rams .745 99.20% 77.53% 49.95% 30.55% 19.65%
San Francisco 49ers .583 74.61% 24.10% 6.21% 2.30% 0.85%
Arizona Cardinals .379 2.55% 0.69% 0.17% 0.05% 0.01%Let’s Talk About Playoffs
Yes, playoffs. Let’s talk about playoffs. You kiddin’ me?
Do the Ravens have a good chance of making the playoffs now that they’ve won three straight games? Or do they just hope to win a game, another game? Let’s find out, then look at two other teams with interesting profiles.
In my college football articles, I post a lot about strength of record in the context of which teams I believe are deserving of playoff bids. In that context, I take a team’s actual winning percentage, then I subtract the expected winning percentage against the same schedule for a hypothetical team with a predictive rating 1.5 standard deviations above the FBS mean. In effect, I’m asking the question of how a good team, one that I expect would be on the playoff bubble, should perform against a team’s schedule. If the actual team outperforms the hypothetical team, it’s a sign they have a good case to be in the playoffs. It’s difficult to directly compare won-loss records in college football because of the huge difference in schedule strength across the FBS. Strength of record is an objective way to compare how good each team’s record is despite the large variations in schedule strength.
This isn’t particularly useful for the NFL because there’s much less variability in schedule strength. And playoff bids are determined by the standings instead of a committee. But instead of using a hypothetical team with a predictive rating 1.5 standard deviations above the mean, I can use a team’s actual predictive rating and do the same calculations. In doing so, I’m comparing a team’s actual winning percentage to what would be expected based on their predictive rating. For teams that have a better record than what’s expected, where this number is well above zero, that could be an indication the team is getting lucky or perhaps that they’re underrated. And where this is well below zero, it’s an indicator that the team is either overrated or they’ve just been very unlucky.
Strength of Record for Each Team’s Rating
Rank TeamSOR Team Win% Predictive
1 .199 Philadelphia Eagles .778 4.89 (7)
2 .156 San Francisco 49ers .600 1.06 (15)
3 .155 Chicago Bears .667 -2.57 (20)
4 .139 Denver Broncos .800 4.79 (8)
5 .139 Tampa Bay Buccaneers .667 3.17 (10)
6 .121 Jacksonville Jaguars .556 -0.13 (16)
7 .120 Carolina Panthers .500 -6.17 (26)
8 .116 New England Patriots .800 2.84 (11)
9 .100 Los Angeles Chargers .700 1.93 (13)
10 .076 Pittsburgh Steelers .556 -0.99 (18)
11 .051 Cincinnati Bengals .333 -9.20 (32)
12 .040 Indianapolis Colts .800 8.58 (3)
13 .023 Los Angeles Rams .778 11.29 (1)
14 .007 Buffalo Bills .667 3.28 (9)
15 -.000 Green Bay Packers .611 1.81 (14)
16 -.007 Seattle Seahawks .778 10.57 (2)
17 -.020 Minnesota Vikings .444 -1.75 (19)
18 -.052 Washington Commanders .300 -4.66 (24)
19 -.059 Baltimore Ravens .444 2.31 (12)
20 -.061 Tennessee Titans .111 -9.15 (31)
Rank TeamSOR Team Win% Predictive
21 -.062 Dallas Cowboys .389 -3.09 (21)
22 -.064 Detroit Lions .667 8.11 (4)
23 -.065 Las Vegas Raiders .222 -7.24 (28)
24 -.070 Atlanta Falcons .333 -3.16 (22)
25 -.070 New Orleans Saints .200 -7.34 (29)
26 -.077 Miami Dolphins .300 -4.76 (25)
27 -.099 Cleveland Browns .222 -7.67 (30)
28 -.137 Arizona Cardinals .333 -0.17 (17)
29 -.144 Kansas City Chiefs .556 7.81 (5)
30 -.147 New York Giants .200 -4.32 (23)
31 -.168 New York Jets .222 -7.08 (27)
32 -.177 Houston Texans .444 7.13 (6) The TeamSOR column in the table is the strength of record given each team’s predictive rating as the hypothetical team. Teams at the top of the list have outperformed expectations given their rating. And teams at the bottom have underperformed compared to what is expected with their rating and schedule.
Baltimore Ravens
In the case of the Baltimore Ravens, they’re not all that interesting from a strength of record standpoint. They’ve underperformed their predictive rating by -.059, which isn’t all that much. They’ve played nine games, so this would have to be -.111 to be underperforming their rating by a full game. I’m more interested in how the Ravens have recovered both in terms of their record but also their predictive rating. They’ve played the #5 ranked schedule so far and have a point differential of -6. But their average opponent rating is +2.07, meaning that over nine games, that is worth an estimated +18.63 points. By these numbers, their point differential against a neutral schedule is an estimated +12.63 points. A few weeks ago, their point differential was decidedly negative, but that’s recovered quickly, and they’ve won three straight games.
Their only real competition for winning the division is the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have a -8 point differential in nine games but one more win on the season. But the Steelers have played a weaker schedule, with an average opponent rating of -0.24. That’s close to a neutral schedule, and it’s worth only about -2.16 points over their nine games. Against a neutral schedule, that means the Steelers would be expected to have a point differential of -10.16, which places them a bit behind the Ravens. Going forward, the Ravens play the #30 schedule while the Steelers play the #23 schedule. However, the Ravens still need to either make up one game on the Steelers and win the tiebreakers, or they need to make up two games and win the division outright.
My season simulator gives the Ravens a 60.04% chance of reaching the playoffs and a 56.99% chance of winning the division. That’s just a 3.05% chance of a wild card spot if they won’t win the division. The wild card chances are only slightly better for the Steelers at 6.61%. It means that there’s likely to be just one team in the playoffs from the AFC North, and the division is leaning slightly toward the Ravens right now despite them having a worse record right now.
Houston Texans
The Texans are at the bottom of the list for how teams have performed compared to their predictive ratings. So are the Texans overrated or just unlucky? They have a 26 point win over Tennessee, which is #31 in the predictive ratings. But they also have a 34 point win over Baltimore, a win that’s looking better as the season goes on, a nine point win over San Francisco, and a seven point win over Jacksonville. Their largest margin of defeat was eight points, a game played at Seattle. They also have a five point loss in a road game against the Rams, a one point loss to Tampa Bay, a seven point loss at Jacksonville, and a three point loss at Denver. With the exception of Jacksonville, who is ranked #16 in the predictive ratings, the other four losses are to teams currently ranked in the top 10 of my predictive ratings. To date, the Texans have played the #3 toughest schedule in the league, and they’re 1-5 in games decided by a one score (eight points or less).
The Texans look like a team that’s genuinely better than their record indicates. The biggest problem facing them making the playoffs is that they still have the #7 ranked future schedule. The most likely scenario seems to be that the Texans finish 9-8 and very much on the playoff bubble. The Colts look like the clear favorites to win the division, and the 0-3 start for the Texans amid a difficult schedule has left them a toss-up for making the playoffs despite appearing to be one of the strongest teams in the AFC.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are in the opposite position as the Texans, having just a +26 point differential with a 7-2 record. That places them at the top of the list for teams that have outperformed their predictive rating. The rest of the NFC East is weak enough that the Eagles are effectively a lock for reaching the playoffs. But are they as good as their record indicates?
To date, the Eagles have played the #7 ranked schedule in the league, so that suggests they’re better than their point differential indicates. Over nine games, their average opponent rating has been 1.96 points, or an overall 17.64 points above a neutral schedule. Therefore, their estimated point differential against a neutral schedule is 43.64 points. The problem is that they’re 7-1 in one score games, something that’s probably isn’t sustainable in the long term. Going forward, the Eagles play the #25 ranked schedule, so that should help to boost their record. Still, the most likely record for the Eagles based on the simulations appears to be 12-5, meaning that they would go 5-3 the rest of the way. It’s a bit less likely that they finish 13-4, which would require a 6-2 record in the final eight games. They’re both plausible scenarios based on the weakness of their schedule over the remainder of the season, and the Eagles are virtually a lock for reaching the playoffs.
However, this doesn’t bode particularly well for the Eagles in the playoffs. Despite their impressive record and the virtual certainty of them winning the NFC East, my simulator only estimates an approximately one-in-eight chance of them returning to the Super Bowl. That’s only fourth in the NFC behind the Rams, Seahawks, and Lions. The Eagles’ weak point differential isn’t the result of being skewed by one or two blowout losses and several quality wins, but what seems like an unsustainable record in close games. They’ll almost certainly win their division, so the real question in my opinion is whether this will catch up to them in the playoffs. Last season, the Chiefs had an unimpressive point differential but made it all the way to the Super Bowl before losing to a much stronger Eagles team. This season, the Eagles are in a similar situation as that Chiefs team, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they end up getting eliminated by the Rams or Seahawks before reaching the Super Bowl.
Week 11 Game Predictions
The thresholds for close games, blowouts, and high and low scoring games are different in the NFL than in college football. That’s because NFL teams are balanced enough in talent to usually avoid truly lopsided scores and there’s just less scoring overall.
Games are ranked based on the projected quality. This factors in the overall strength of the two teams and the potential for a competitive game. Game quality ratings are not directly comparable between college football and the NFL for many of the same reasons I just mentioned. This is just for predicting which NFL games are most and least compelling each weekend.
Beside each team, there are two numbers in parentheses. One is the predicted margin of victory (positive) or defeat (negative), the other is the probability of winning. In the event that a margin is larger than what’s indicated by the predicted score, that’s because there’s nothing in the math that prevents a forecast of negative points with a sufficiently lopsided matchup. This isn’t even close to possible with the current NFL ratings, even with the weakest offense against the strongest defense, but it does occur once in awhile in college football. A negative score is impossible, of course, so the score would be set to zero in those instances. However, there’s no upper limit on how many points a team can be projected to score. But with more parity between NFL teams, even the highest scoring predictions aren’t going to be nearly as crazy as what is possible with the college football ratings.
#1: Seattle Seahawks (-2.93, 41.16%) at Los Angeles Rams (2.93, 58.40%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 21.73 - 24.61, Total: 46.34
Quality: 96.96%, Team quality: 96.49%, Competitiveness: 97.92%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.74%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 22.83%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 25.36%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 18.06%
#2: Detroit Lions (1.00, 52.73%) at Philadelphia Eagles (-1.00, 46.82%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 25.41 - 24.37, Total: 49.78
Quality: 90.75%, Team quality: 86.55%, Competitiveness: 99.76%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 20.80%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 23.30%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 33.45%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 12.59%
#3: Kansas City Chiefs (0.81, 52.16%) at Denver Broncos (-0.81, 47.39%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 17.34 - 16.58, Total: 33.92
Quality: 90.28%, Team quality: 85.85%, Competitiveness: 99.84%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 20.75%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 23.32%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 6.69%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 47.47%
#4: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.33, 42.91%) at Buffalo Bills (2.33, 56.64%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 24.31 - 26.60, Total: 50.91
Quality: 78.67%, Team quality: 70.24%, Competitiveness: 98.68%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.35%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 23.02%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 36.32%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 11.09%
#5: Los Angeles Chargers (-0.17, 49.28%) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0.17, 50.27%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 22.51 - 22.68, Total: 45.20
Quality: 68.00%, Team quality: 56.08%, Competitiveness: 99.99%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 20.68%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 23.36%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 22.94%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 20.16%
#6: San Francisco 49ers (-1.00, 46.82%) at Arizona Cardinals (1.00, 52.73%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 21.02 - 22.00, Total: 43.02
Quality: 65.34%, Team quality: 52.88%, Competitiveness: 99.76%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 20.80%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 23.30%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 18.70%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 24.58%
#7: Green Bay Packers (3.91, 61.20%) at New York Giants (-3.91, 38.36%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 23.16 - 19.20, Total: 42.36
Quality: 53.55%, Team quality: 39.93%, Competitiveness: 96.33%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 22.57%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 22.42%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 17.53%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 26.02%
#8: Chicago Bears (-3.04, 40.85%) at Minnesota Vikings (3.04, 58.71%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 21.73 - 24.78, Total: 46.51
Quality: 49.05%, Team quality: 34.74%, Competitiveness: 97.76%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.82%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 22.79%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 25.74%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 17.75%
#9: Baltimore Ravens (7.76, 71.59%) at Cleveland Browns (-7.76, 28.03%), Tie (0.38%)
Estimated score: 24.50 - 16.71, Total: 41.20
Quality: 40.33%, Team quality: 27.57%, Competitiveness: 86.28%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 27.92%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 19.88%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 15.58%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 28.66%
#10: Houston Texans (14.06, 85.05%) at Tennessee Titans (-14.06, 14.69%), Tie (0.26%)
Estimated score: 24.34 - 10.30, Total: 34.63
Quality: 35.35%, Team quality: 26.78%, Competitiveness: 61.59%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 42.41%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 13.76%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 7.33%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 45.52%
#11: Washington Commanders (-2.12, 43.53%) at Miami Dolphins (2.12, 56.02%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 22.74 - 24.81, Total: 47.55
Quality: 34.91%, Team quality: 20.74%, Competitiveness: 98.91%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.23%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 23.08%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 28.09%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 15.97%
#12: New York Jets (-12.14, 18.22%) at New England Patriots (12.14, 81.48%), Tie (0.30%)
Estimated score: 17.43 - 29.59, Total: 47.02
Quality: 34.82%, Team quality: 24.61%, Competitiveness: 69.70%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 37.42%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 15.75%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 26.89%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 16.86%
#13: Carolina Panthers (-5.23, 34.67%) at Atlanta Falcons (5.23, 64.91%), Tie (0.42%)
Estimated score: 13.86 - 19.16, Total: 33.02
Quality: 33.04%, Team quality: 19.64%, Competitiveness: 93.52%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 24.04%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 21.71%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 5.95%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 49.95%
#14: Dallas Cowboys (1.93, 55.48%) at Las Vegas Raiders (-1.93, 44.07%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 26.74 - 24.78, Total: 51.51
Quality: 32.55%, Team quality: 18.65%, Competitiveness: 99.09%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.14%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 23.13%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 37.89%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 10.35%
#15: Cincinnati Bengals (-10.43, 21.76%) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10.43, 77.90%), Tie (0.34%)
Estimated score: 22.75 - 33.17, Total: 55.92
Quality: 24.73%, Team quality: 14.05%, Competitiveness: 76.60%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 33.36%
Close game probability (margin <= 4.0 pts): 17.46%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 49.78%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 6.00%Thursday Night Football starts soon. Enjoy the game, and thanks for reading!
This article uses ratings that are derived from data obtained from Pro Football Reference.