NFL Computer Ratings and Predictions for Week 15
Yes, the Carolina Panthers are serious playoff contenders after being ranked at the bottom of the preseason rankings.
The Carolina Panthers are increasingly looking like a serious playoff contender now that they’re tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers atop the NFC South. Here’s a quick update to the computer ratings and the NFL seasonal projections prior to tonight’s game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Buccaneers. The Bucs need a win to avoid giving the Panthers the edge in the division, something that is a huge surprise after the Panthers opened the season last in the computer ratings.
Predictive Ratings
These are forward looking ratings, meaning that they’re intended to evaluate how good a team is and predict its future success, but they don’t evaluate the quality of a team’s achievements earlier in the season. These ratings are based purely on points. They don’t factor in wins and losses, only the margin of victory. The ratings don’t explicitly calculate the strength of schedule, though I calculate this afterwards. However, because of how the ratings are calculated, the quality of opponents does influence the ratings.
The offense and defense columns refer to each team’s point scoring tendencies instead of the efficiency ratings that some other rating systems use. The overall rating is approximately the sum of a team’s offense and defense ratings. To predict the score of a game for the home team, take the home team’s offense rating, add half of the home advantage, subtract the visiting team’s defense rating, and add the mean score. Predicting the score is similar for the visiting team. Take the visiting team’s offense rating, subtract half of the home advantage, subtract the home team’s defense rating, and add the mean score. Predicting the margin of victory for a game is done by taking the home team’s rating, adding the home advantage, and subtracting the away team’s rating. For neutral site games, the home advantage is set to zero.
Predictive Ratings
Home advantage: 1.78 points
Mean score: 22.38 points
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
1 14.01 +1.37 Los Angeles Rams 7.42 6.56
2 13.27 +1.59 Seattle Seahawks 8.00 5.27
3 9.36 +1.00 Houston Texans 0.06 9.28
4 6.86 -0.99 Indianapolis Colts 6.81 0.06
5 +4 6.50 +1.65 Jacksonville Jaguars 3.63 2.84
6 -1 5.54 -1.11 Kansas City Chiefs 0.71 4.83
7 5.43 +0.14 Detroit Lions 5.92 -0.53
8 5.05 +0.19 San Francisco 49ers 2.04 3.04
9 -3 4.47 -1.06 Buffalo Bills 5.57 -1.10
10 3.44 -0.59 Denver Broncos -0.41 3.85
11 3.31 -0.11 Green Bay Packers -0.23 3.54
12 3.20 -0.14 New England Patriots 1.41 1.79
13 2.40 -0.59 Philadelphia Eagles -1.74 4.12
14 0.13 -0.93 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1.58 -1.47
15 +3 -0.13 +0.70 Los Angeles Chargers -0.27 0.11
16 +1 -0.82 -0.45 Baltimore Ravens 0.60 -1.39
17 -2 -1.12 -0.84 Arizona Cardinals -0.12 -1.01
18 +2 -1.19 +0.88 Pittsburgh Steelers -0.71 -0.48
19 -3 -1.39 -1.10 Dallas Cowboys 6.31 -7.70
20 -1 -1.89 +0.03 Chicago Bears 1.34 -3.22
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
21 +3 -2.55 +2.26 Minnesota Vikings -4.12 1.60
22 -3.15 -0.05 Carolina Panthers -3.90 0.73
23 -2 -4.04 -1.33 Atlanta Falcons -3.23 -0.81
24 +2 -4.32 +0.75 Miami Dolphins -3.02 -1.30
25 -5.33 -0.34 New York Giants -0.77 -4.55
26 +2 -6.64 +1.04 New Orleans Saints -6.67 0.01
27 -4 -6.70 -2.00 Washington Commanders -2.76 -3.92
28 +2 -7.49 +1.11 Cincinnati Bengals 1.31 -8.81
29 +2 -7.97 +0.79 Tennessee Titans -4.90 -3.07
30 -1 -8.61 -0.05 Cleveland Browns -7.03 -1.58
31 -4 -9.03 -1.74 New York Jets -4.79 -4.26
32 -10.50 +0.10 Las Vegas Raiders -8.08 -2.42 Schedule Strength
The first column is the expected losing percentage (1 minus winning percentage) for a hypothetical average NFL team in each team’s games played to date. Larger numbers mean a tougher schedule. The second column is the same thing, just for future games instead of past games.
The third column is the average opponent rating, with an adjustment for the site of games, for previously played games. The fourth column is the average opponent rating for the future games that each team will play. These two columns are the same schedule strength metrics from my previous NFL articles.
In college football, the two approaches to schedule strength would differ more just because the approach used in the first two columns limits the influence of truly lopsided blowout games. In the NFL, there just aren’t that many blowouts, and the teams are more evenly balanced. Therefore, there’s just not too much of a difference in the two approaches to measuring schedule strength.
Schedule Strength for an Average Team
Home advantage: 1.78 points
Mean score: 22.38 points
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
1 Los Angeles Rams .565 (4) .579 (7) 2.36 (7) 3.38 (5)
2 Seattle Seahawks .506 (15) .652 (2) 0.42 (13) 5.69 (2)
3 Houston Texans .600 (2) .449 (22) 3.91 (1) -2.11 (23)
4 Indianapolis Colts .497 (17) .721 (1) -0.01 (17) 8.55 (1)
5 Jacksonville Jaguars .562 (5) .460 (20) 2.41 (6) -1.67 (21)
6 Kansas City Chiefs .528 (11) .395 (27) 0.91 (11) -3.79 (28)
7 Detroit Lions .453 (23) .565 (10) -1.68 (23) 2.99 (7)
8 San Francisco 49ers .556 (7) .542 (11) 2.51 (4) 1.68 (12)
9 Buffalo Bills .446 (24) .421 (25) -1.89 (24) -3.01 (25)
10 Denver Broncos .431 (31) .582 (5) -2.55 (31) 2.91 (8)
11 Green Bay Packers .440 (25) .512 (16) -2.15 (25) 0.44 (15)
12 New England Patriots .363 (32) .433 (24) -5.03 (32) -2.43 (24)
13 Philadelphia Eagles .531 (10) .372 (30) 1.20 (10) -4.86 (30)
14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers .558 (6) .395 (26) 2.42 (5) -3.66 (26)
15 Los Angeles Chargers .438 (27) .644 (3) -2.28 (29) 5.13 (3)
16 Baltimore Ravens .478 (21) .510 (17) -0.79 (21) 0.35 (17)
17 Arizona Cardinals .592 (3) .585 (4) 3.58 (3) 3.85 (4)
18 Pittsburgh Steelers .482 (20) .440 (23) -0.67 (20) -2.08 (22)
19 Dallas Cowboys .472 (22) .394 (28) -1.03 (22) -3.68 (27)
20 Chicago Bears .438 (28) .516 (14) -2.21 (26) 0.40 (16)
Rank Team SOS Future OppRtg Future
21 Minnesota Vikings .482 (19) .515 (15) -0.51 (19) 0.50 (14)
22 Carolina Panthers .514 (12) .542 (12) 0.59 (12) 1.72 (11)
23 Atlanta Falcons .496 (18) .539 (13) -0.06 (18) 1.59 (13)
24 Miami Dolphins .435 (30) .465 (19) -2.38 (30) -1.34 (19)
25 New York Giants .542 (8) .328 (32) 1.49 (9) -6.18 (32)
26 New Orleans Saints .538 (9) .333 (31) 1.71 (8) -6.04 (31)
27 Washington Commanders .506 (14) .486 (18) 0.20 (15) -0.48 (18)
28 Cincinnati Bengals .508 (13) .373 (29) 0.22 (14) -4.61 (29)
29 Tennessee Titans .604 (1) .574 (9) 3.90 (2) 2.61 (10)
30 Cleveland Browns .439 (26) .457 (21) -2.27 (28) -1.52 (20)
31 New York Jets .437 (29) .576 (8) -2.26 (27) 2.77 (9)
32 Las Vegas Raiders .502 (16) .580 (6) 0.03 (16) 2.99 (6) Simulating the Rest of the Season
These results are based on games and computer ratings through December 1, 2025. The season was simulated 20,000 times, and the results of the simulations have been aggregated to predict final records and playoff chances. Tiebreakers for making the postseason are simplified, and the simulations don’t factor in potential issues like injuries, but this is still useful for making an educated guess about the standings at the end of the regular season.
Projected Standings
First up is the projected won-loss records, points scored, and points allowed for each team. The rating column is the team’s overall rating, included as a measure of team strength.
AFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
New England Patriots 13.57 3.42 0.02 .799 454.58 322.36 3.20
Buffalo Bills 11.71 5.28 0.01 .689 487.82 375.41 4.47
Miami Dolphins 7.69 9.29 0.02 .453 367.79 394.21 -4.32
New York Jets 3.89 13.10 0.01 .229 322.02 461.54 -9.03
AFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Pittsburgh Steelers 9.09 7.89 0.02 .535 399.67 399.42 -1.19
Baltimore Ravens 7.87 9.12 0.02 .463 405.45 419.03 -0.82
Cincinnati Bengals 5.69 11.29 0.02 .335 416.09 526.43 -7.49
Cleveland Browns 4.27 12.71 0.02 .252 298.69 404.54 -8.61
AFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Jacksonville Jaguars 11.71 5.28 0.01 .689 435.45 347.84 6.50
Houston Texans 11.03 5.96 0.02 .649 378.03 260.72 9.36
Indianapolis Colts 9.83 7.16 0.01 .579 472.62 388.15 6.86
Tennessee Titans 3.01 13.97 0.02 .178 261.61 458.55 -7.97
AFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Denver Broncos 13.05 3.93 0.02 .768 386.71 311.53 3.44
Los Angeles Chargers 10.45 6.53 0.02 .615 376.36 368.39 -0.13
Kansas City Chiefs 8.91 8.07 0.02 .525 408.90 310.30 5.54
Las Vegas Raiders 2.80 14.18 0.02 .165 244.11 429.61 -10.50
NFC East
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Philadelphia Eagles 10.69 6.29 0.02 .629 383.28 337.67 2.40
Dallas Cowboys 8.24 7.75 1.02 .514 502.32 498.08 -1.39
New York Giants 4.09 12.89 0.02 .241 379.73 464.38 -5.33
Washington Commanders 4.34 12.64 0.02 .256 344.90 461.45 -6.70
NFC North
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Green Bay Packers 11.30 4.68 1.02 .695 408.36 322.07 3.31
Chicago Bears 10.75 6.23 0.02 .633 426.60 436.24 -1.89
Detroit Lions 10.24 6.74 0.02 .603 500.86 401.71 5.43
Minnesota Vikings 6.66 10.32 0.02 .392 337.63 375.53 -2.55
NFC South
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9.38 7.60 0.02 .552 395.32 406.82 0.13
Carolina Panthers 8.52 8.46 0.02 .502 319.55 388.50 -3.15
Atlanta Falcons 5.47 11.51 0.02 .322 325.59 408.12 -4.04
New Orleans Saints 4.92 12.06 0.02 .290 277.01 388.39 -6.64
NFC West
W L T Win% PF PA Rating
Seattle Seahawks 12.75 4.24 0.01 .750 498.43 307.44 13.27
Los Angeles Rams 12.96 4.03 0.01 .763 495.50 301.96 14.01
San Francisco 49ers 11.29 5.69 0.01 .665 407.52 356.51 5.05
Arizona Cardinals 4.56 12.42 0.02 .269 364.00 449.58 -1.12 Playoff Chances
The next table shows each team’s chances of making the playoffs, winning their division, and having the best record in the conference. The mean playoff seed is an average that uses only the seasons when each team made the playoffs. Div% and Conf% are the probabilities of a team having the best record in their division and conference, respectively.
AFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
New England Patriots 3.20 .799 99.96% 84.23% 57.38% 1.97
Buffalo Bills 4.47 .689 95.47% 15.77% 5.66% 4.99
Miami Dolphins -4.32 .453 0.18% 0.00% 0.00% 6.89
New York Jets -9.03 .229 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
AFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Pittsburgh Steelers -1.19 .535 76.02% 75.83% 0.00% 3.99
Baltimore Ravens -0.82 .463 24.07% 24.02% 0.00% 4.01
Cincinnati Bengals -7.49 .335 0.15% 0.15% 0.00% 4.00
Cleveland Browns -8.61 .252 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
AFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Jacksonville Jaguars 6.50 .689 97.91% 63.30% 7.27% 3.65
Houston Texans 9.36 .649 88.68% 30.63% 0.33% 4.92
Indianapolis Colts 6.86 .579 44.66% 6.08% 0.03% 6.01
Tennessee Titans -7.97 .178 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
AFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Denver Broncos 3.44 .768 99.65% 91.54% 28.69% 2.22
Los Angeles Chargers -0.13 .615 58.99% 8.46% 0.65% 5.81
Kansas City Chiefs 5.54 .525 14.27% 0.00% 0.00% 6.91
Las Vegas Raiders -10.50 .165 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
NFC East
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Philadelphia Eagles 2.40 .629 94.16% 93.58% 0.30% 3.00
Dallas Cowboys -1.39 .514 8.61% 6.42% 0.00% 4.25
New York Giants -5.33 .241 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
Washington Commanders -6.70 .256 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
NFC North
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Green Bay Packers 3.31 .695 94.17% 70.33% 7.18% 3.13
Chicago Bears -1.89 .633 58.29% 20.36% 1.74% 4.99
Detroit Lions 5.43 .603 53.61% 9.30% 0.29% 5.99
Minnesota Vikings -2.55 .392 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 7.00
NFC South
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.13 .552 69.72% 69.58% 0.00% 3.88
Carolina Panthers -3.15 .502 30.61% 30.40% 0.00% 3.89
Atlanta Falcons -4.04 .322 0.02% 0.02% 0.00% 4.00
New Orleans Saints -6.64 .290 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--
NFC West
Rating Win% Playoff% Div% Conf% MeanSeed
Seattle Seahawks 13.27 .750 99.52% 43.41% 39.97% 3.53
Los Angeles Rams 14.01 .763 99.22% 54.24% 48.55% 2.96
San Francisco 49ers 5.05 .665 92.03% 2.34% 1.98% 5.86
Arizona Cardinals -1.12 .269 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -.--Possible Regular Season Outcomes
To give a range of how good or bad a team’s final record might be, several percentiles are shown for each team’s final winning percentage.
AFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
New England Patriots .799 100.00% .706 .765 .824 .824 .882
Buffalo Bills .689 100.00% .647 .647 .706 .706 .765
Miami Dolphins .453 19.30% .412 .412 .471 .471 .529
New York Jets .229 0.00% .176 .176 .235 .235 .294
AFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Pittsburgh Steelers .535 73.44% .471 .471 .529 .588 .588
Baltimore Ravens .463 25.57% .412 .412 .471 .529 .529
Cincinnati Bengals .335 0.00% .265 .294 .353 .353 .412
Cleveland Browns .252 0.00% .176 .235 .235 .294 .294
AFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Jacksonville Jaguars .689 100.00% .647 .647 .706 .706 .765
Houston Texans .649 99.83% .588 .647 .647 .706 .706
Indianapolis Colts .579 92.45% .529 .529 .588 .588 .647
Tennessee Titans .178 0.00% .118 .118 .176 .235 .235
AFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Denver Broncos .768 100.00% .706 .706 .765 .824 .824
Los Angeles Chargers .615 100.00% .529 .588 .588 .647 .706
Kansas City Chiefs .525 70.38% .471 .471 .529 .588 .588
Las Vegas Raiders .165 0.00% .118 .118 .176 .176 .235
NFC East
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Philadelphia Eagles .629 99.26% .588 .588 .647 .647 .706
Dallas Cowboys .514 41.06% .441 .500 .500 .559 .559
New York Giants .241 0.00% .176 .176 .235 .294 .294
Washington Commanders .256 0.00% .176 .235 .235 .294 .353
NFC North
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Green Bay Packers .695 100.00% .618 .676 .676 .735 .794
Chicago Bears .633 100.00% .588 .588 .647 .647 .706
Detroit Lions .603 97.38% .529 .588 .588 .647 .647
Minnesota Vikings .392 2.83% .294 .353 .412 .412 .471
NFC South
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .552 82.25% .471 .529 .529 .588 .647
Carolina Panthers .502 49.66% .412 .471 .500 .529 .588
Atlanta Falcons .322 0.00% .235 .294 .294 .353 .412
New Orleans Saints .290 0.00% .235 .235 .294 .353 .353
NFC West
Win% >.500% 10%ile 25%ile 50%ile 75%ile 90%ile
Seattle Seahawks .750 100.00% .706 .706 .765 .765 .824
Los Angeles Rams .763 100.00% .706 .706 .765 .824 .824
San Francisco 49ers .665 100.00% .588 .647 .647 .706 .706
Arizona Cardinals .269 0.00% .235 .235 .294 .294 .353Postseason Projections
The final table shows each team’s probability of reaching the playoffs, the divisional round, the conference championship, winning their conference, and winning the Super Bowl.
AFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
New England Patriots .799 99.96% 79.48% 38.32% 15.46% 4.71%
Buffalo Bills .689 95.47% 52.02% 24.89% 12.04% 4.08%
Miami Dolphins .453 0.18% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
New York Jets .229 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Pittsburgh Steelers .535 76.02% 28.86% 9.16% 3.09% 0.64%
Baltimore Ravens .463 24.07% 9.36% 3.12% 1.24% 0.24%
Cincinnati Bengals .335 0.15% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
Cleveland Browns .252 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Jacksonville Jaguars .689 97.91% 57.77% 32.86% 18.15% 7.08%
Houston Texans .649 88.68% 56.78% 36.09% 23.59% 10.32%
Indianapolis Colts .579 44.66% 23.55% 13.21% 7.87% 3.01%
Tennessee Titans .178 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Denver Broncos .768 99.65% 64.50% 31.34% 14.01% 4.30%
Los Angeles Chargers .615 58.99% 20.85% 7.67% 2.85% 0.65%
Kansas City Chiefs .525 14.27% 6.75% 3.33% 1.69% 0.56%
Las Vegas Raiders .165 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC East
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Philadelphia Eagles .629 94.16% 43.00% 17.26% 4.70% 2.01%
Dallas Cowboys .514 8.61% 2.71% 0.64% 0.10% 0.02%
New York Giants .241 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Washington Commanders .256 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC North
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Green Bay Packers .695 94.17% 53.19% 22.70% 6.40% 2.81%
Chicago Bears .633 58.29% 20.84% 4.83% 0.98% 0.33%
Detroit Lions .603 53.61% 28.39% 9.46% 3.86% 1.83%
Minnesota Vikings .392 0.04% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC South
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .552 69.72% 19.75% 6.46% 1.50% 0.50%
Carolina Panthers .502 30.61% 6.91% 1.68% 0.26% 0.07%
Atlanta Falcons .322 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
New Orleans Saints .290 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NFC West
Win% Playoff% MkDivRd% WinDivRd% WinConf% WinSB%
Seattle Seahawks .750 99.52% 86.02% 57.98% 35.47% 24.83%
Los Angeles Rams .763 99.22% 88.58% 62.48% 40.52% 29.00%
San Francisco 49ers .665 92.03% 50.61% 16.52% 6.21% 3.01%
Arizona Cardinals .269 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Week 15 Game Predictions
The thresholds for close games, blowouts, and high and low scoring games are different in the NFL than in college football. That’s because NFL teams are balanced enough in talent to usually avoid truly lopsided scores and there’s just less scoring overall.
Games are ranked based on the projected quality. This factors in the overall strength of the two teams and the potential for a competitive game. Game quality ratings are not directly comparable between college football and the NFL for many of the same reasons I just mentioned. This is just for predicting which NFL games are most and least compelling each weekend.
Beside each team, there are two numbers in parentheses. One is the predicted margin of victory (positive) or defeat (negative), the other is the probability of winning. In the event that a margin is larger than what’s indicated by the predicted score, that’s because there’s nothing in the math that prevents a forecast of negative points with a sufficiently lopsided matchup. This isn’t even close to possible with the current NFL ratings, even with the weakest offense against the strongest defense, but it does occur once in awhile in college football. A negative score is impossible, of course, so the score would be set to zero in those instances. However, there’s no upper limit on how many points a team can be projected to score. But with more parity between NFL teams, even the highest scoring predictions aren’t going to be nearly as crazy as what is possible with the college football ratings.
#1: Indianapolis Colts (-8.20, 27.27%) at Seattle Seahawks (8.20, 72.35%), Tie (0.38%)
Estimated score: 23.02 - 31.21, Total: 54.23
Quality: 88.56%, Team quality: 90.53%, Competitiveness: 84.77%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 29.61%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 14.46%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 45.15%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 7.19%
#2: Detroit Lions (-10.36, 22.32%) at Los Angeles Rams (10.36, 77.34%), Tie (0.34%)
Estimated score: 20.85 - 31.22, Total: 52.06
Quality: 83.53%, Team quality: 87.10%, Competitiveness: 76.83%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 33.96%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 12.96%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 39.32%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 9.47%
#3: Buffalo Bills (-0.51, 48.30%) at New England Patriots (0.51, 51.25%), Tie (0.46%)
Estimated score: 25.27 - 25.77, Total: 51.05
Quality: 80.99%, Team quality: 72.91%, Competitiveness: 99.94%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 21.88%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.38%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 36.65%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 10.70%
#4: Green Bay Packers (-1.92, 44.19%) at Denver Broncos (1.92, 55.36%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 17.41 - 19.32, Total: 36.73
Quality: 78.65%, Team quality: 70.07%, Competitiveness: 99.10%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 22.29%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.22%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 9.23%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 39.88%
#5: Los Angeles Chargers (-7.45, 29.10%) at Kansas City Chiefs (7.45, 70.50%), Tie (0.39%)
Estimated score: 16.38 - 23.87, Total: 40.25
Quality: 68.52%, Team quality: 60.73%, Competitiveness: 87.23%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 28.31%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 14.93%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 13.92%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 30.87%
#6: Arizona Cardinals (-12.26, 18.45%) at Houston Texans (12.26, 81.25%), Tie (0.30%)
Estimated score: 12.09 - 24.34, Total: 36.43
Quality: 62.61%, Team quality: 59.56%, Competitiveness: 69.19%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 38.35%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 11.54%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 8.89%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 40.67%
#7: Minnesota Vikings (-2.95, 41.24%) at Dallas Cowboys (2.95, 58.32%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 25.07 - 27.98, Total: 53.04
Quality: 51.11%, Team quality: 36.94%, Competitiveness: 97.88%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 22.88%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 16.98%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 41.93%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 8.38%
#8: Atlanta Falcons (-5.95, 32.96%) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5.95, 66.63%), Tie (0.41%)
Estimated score: 19.73 - 25.65, Total: 45.38
Quality: 48.15%, Team quality: 34.90%, Competitiveness: 91.65%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 26.02%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 15.78%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 23.23%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 19.70%
#9: Miami Dolphins (-4.91, 35.75%) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4.91, 63.83%), Tie (0.43%)
Estimated score: 18.95 - 23.86, Total: 42.81
Quality: 45.12%, Team quality: 31.23%, Competitiveness: 94.23%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 24.71%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 16.28%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 18.19%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 24.98%
#10: Baltimore Ravens (4.89, 63.77%) at Cincinnati Bengals (-4.89, 35.80%), Tie (0.43%)
Estimated score: 30.90 - 25.97, Total: 56.87
Quality: 37.79%, Team quality: 23.92%, Competitiveness: 94.27%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 24.68%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 16.29%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 52.38%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 5.02%
#11: Carolina Panthers (1.72, 54.78%) at New Orleans Saints (-1.72, 44.77%), Tie (0.45%)
Estimated score: 17.58 - 15.86, Total: 33.44
Quality: 35.88%, Team quality: 21.57%, Competitiveness: 99.27%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 22.20%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 17.25%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 6.02%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 48.80%
#12: Tennessee Titans (-14.80, 14.01%) at San Francisco 49ers (14.80, 85.74%), Tie (0.25%)
Estimated score: 13.55 - 28.38, Total: 41.93
Quality: 33.68%, Team quality: 25.54%, Competitiveness: 58.58%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 44.85%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 9.60%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 16.63%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 26.93%
#13: Washington Commanders (-3.15, 40.65%) at New York Giants (3.15, 58.90%), Tie (0.44%)
Estimated score: 23.27 - 26.42, Total: 49.70
Quality: 29.74%, Team quality: 16.42%, Competitiveness: 97.58%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 23.03%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 16.93%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 33.22%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 12.51%
#14: New York Jets (-17.31, 10.42%) at Jacksonville Jaguars (17.31, 89.38%), Tie (0.20%)
Estimated score: 13.85 - 31.15, Total: 45.00
Quality: 28.89%, Team quality: 22.35%, Competitiveness: 48.26%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 51.72%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 7.75%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 22.45%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 20.43%
#15: Cleveland Browns (-8.50, 26.54%) at Chicago Bears (8.50, 73.08%), Tie (0.37%)
Estimated score: 17.67 - 26.18, Total: 43.85
Quality: 28.72%, Team quality: 16.82%, Competitiveness: 83.72%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 30.17%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 14.26%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 20.15%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 22.75%
#16: Las Vegas Raiders (-14.68, 14.19%) at Philadelphia Eagles (14.68, 85.56%), Tie (0.25%)
Estimated score: 9.28 - 23.94, Total: 33.22
Quality: 24.25%, Team quality: 15.54%, Competitiveness: 59.06%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 44.55%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 9.68%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 5.84%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 49.39%Although the Buccaneers are still favored to win the NFC South, the Panthers are serious playoff contenders, and my simulator now gives them just over a 30% chance of reaching the playoffs. That appeared very unlikely at the start of the season, but the Panthers are very much in contention and are favored this weekend against the New Orleans Saints. The NFC South is becoming a surprisingly interesting race, and there are still two games left between the Buccaneers and Panthers, games that will almost certainly decide who actually wins the division. There are lots of other interesting races in the NFL, but I’m just particularly interested in this division because of how unlikely it seemed at the start of the season that the Panthers would be in contention entering week 15. Thanks for reading!
The ratings in this article are based on data from Pro Football Reference.