NFL Computer Ratings and a Super Bowl LX Prediction
The Seahawks are the favorite, but how likely is a Patriots win?
There’s one more football game to be played this winter: it’s Super Bowl LX, and it’s at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. Let’s look at the ratings and make a prediction.
Some are describing the Seahawks and Patriots as an unexpected matchup, but that requires some context. The Lions and Ravens might have been considered the favorites at the start of the season, but both missed the playoffs. The NFC North looked like the best division in the conference, and it’s not surprising that the Packers were a playoff team. But the Bears weren’t expected to win the division and actually appeared to be the weakest team in the division. The Bears turned out to be much better than expected, winning the division and nearly knocking the Rams out of the playoffs. Instead of the expected NFC North dominance, the NFC West was the strongest division, with the Seahawks, Rams, and 49ers all reaching the playoffs. As the season went along, my ratings moved the Rams and Seahawks to the top of the ratings, and they appeared to be the most likely candidates to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl at the end of the regular season. The Seahawks weren’t the most likely candidate at the start of the season to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, but they were at the top of the ratings when the playoffs started.
In October, I wrote about the Patriots and their chances of winning the AFC East. The Bills looked like the preseason favorite to win the division while the ratings placed the Patriots toward the bottom of the NFL. But the Patriots kept winning, and although they never moved to the top of the ratings, their computer rating improved over the course of the season. The most likely Super Bowl teams from the AFC at the end of the regular season appeared to be the AFC South duo of the Jaguars and Texans. As I wrote just a few weeks ago, however, the Patriots had improved during the season, and their rating doesn’t necessarily reflect the strength of the Patriots right now. No, the Patriots weren’t the favorite to reach the Super Bowl when the regular season ended, but this also isn’t as unlikely as it might seem. The real surprise in the AFC is the Ravens, who opened the season as my favorite to win the Super Bowl but missed the playoffs.
With that said, let’s take a look at the computer ratings.
Predictive Ratings
Home advantage: 2.02 points
Mean score: 22.42 points
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
1 13.76 -0.12 Seattle Seahawks 6.87 6.87
2 11.28 -0.01 Los Angeles Rams 7.88 3.42
3 8.02 -0.07 Houston Texans 1.13 6.89
4 7.72 +0.02 Jacksonville Jaguars 4.64 3.07
5 6.74 +0.16 New England Patriots 2.83 3.93
6 4.90 +0.01 Buffalo Bills 5.39 -0.51
7 4.78 +0.02 San Francisco 49ers 3.18 1.59
8 4.18 +0.01 Indianapolis Colts 5.40 -1.22
9 4.04 -0.02 Detroit Lions 5.16 -1.11
10 3.51 -0.11 Denver Broncos -0.15 3.68
11 2.53 +0.04 Philadelphia Eagles -2.00 4.54
12 1.67 -0.06 Kansas City Chiefs -1.85 3.53
13 1.49 +0.04 Baltimore Ravens 1.88 -0.41
14 1.17 +0.01 Chicago Bears 2.32 -1.13
15 1.17 +0.03 Green Bay Packers -0.17 1.34
16 0.93 +0.01 Minnesota Vikings -3.09 4.03
17 0.33 -0.05 Los Angeles Chargers -1.76 2.08
18 -0.30 +0.01 Pittsburgh Steelers -0.33 0.04
19 -1.16 -0.04 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.19 -1.32
20 -2.16 +0.05 Atlanta Falcons -1.83 -0.34
Rank Move Rating Change Team Offense Defense
21 -3.05 +0.06 Carolina Panthers -4.06 1.04
22 -3.56 -0.01 New York Giants -0.61 -2.94
23 -3.90 -0.03 Dallas Cowboys 4.65 -8.58
24 -4.65 +0.01 New Orleans Saints -5.00 0.36
25 -4.72 +0.01 Cincinnati Bengals 1.71 -6.40
26 -4.77 -0.04 Arizona Cardinals -1.44 -3.31
27 -5.88 -0.02 Washington Commanders -2.10 -3.76
28 -6.40 -0.00 Miami Dolphins -3.70 -2.67
29 -7.51 +0.01 Cleveland Browns -7.81 0.28
30 -7.87 -0.00 Tennessee Titans -3.92 -3.95
31 -10.70 -0.01 Las Vegas Raiders -7.90 -2.81
32 -11.78 -0.03 New York Jets -5.49 -6.29 And here’s the prediction for Super Bowl LX based on these ratings.
#1: Seattle Seahawks (7.02, 69.87%) vs. New England Patriots (-7.02, 30.13%)
Estimated score: 25.36 - 18.38, Total: 43.74
Quality: 91.26%, Team quality: 92.75%, Competitiveness: 88.35%
Blowout probability (margin >= 17.0 pts): 27.01%
Close game probability (margin <= 3.0 pts): 15.36%
High scoring probability (total >= 56.0 pts): 19.58%
Low scoring probability (total <= 33.0 pts): 22.66%I agree with the consensus that the Seahawks are the favorite, but there a couple of reasons why the Patriots might have better than a 30% chance of winning. First is that these ratings are based on the assumption that margins of victory are normally distributed. I’ve suggested that this might not be the best distribution, and that I might switch to a logistic distribution in the future. That would increase the Patriots’ win probability a bit.
Both the Patriots and Seahawks have improved significantly during the season, but the Patriots have improved a bit more by my calculations. I calculated this by using a team’s current rating as a baseline and then determining of the team underperformed or outperformed their prediction each week. I standardized the x-axis so that it doesn’t depend on how many games each team has played. then I did a linear regression and used the slope of the best fit line as my measure of improvement. Here are the updated numbers through the conference championship games for the overall, offense, and defense ratings.
Overall Trend
Rank Trend Team Rating
1 +5.10 New England Patriots 6.74 (5)
2 +5.02 Cincinnati Bengals -4.72 (25)
3 +4.19 Jacksonville Jaguars 7.72 (4)
4 +4.17 Chicago Bears 1.17 (14)
5 +3.96 Seattle Seahawks 13.76 (1)
6 +3.66 New York Giants -3.56 (22)
7 +3.26 New Orleans Saints -4.65 (24)
8 +2.96 Minnesota Vikings 0.93 (16)
9 +2.19 Baltimore Ravens 1.49 (13)
10 +1.59 Carolina Panthers -3.05 (21)
11 +1.55 Cleveland Browns -7.51 (29)
12 +1.41 Atlanta Falcons -2.16 (20)
13 +1.11 Buffalo Bills 4.90 (6)
14 +0.92 Tennessee Titans -7.87 (30)
15 +0.57 Los Angeles Chargers 0.33 (17)
16 +0.36 Denver Broncos 3.51 (10)
17 -0.67 Miami Dolphins -6.40 (28)
18 -0.71 Houston Texans 8.02 (3)
19 -0.82 San Francisco 49ers 4.78 (7)
20 -0.98 Los Angeles Rams 11.28 (2)
Rank Trend Team Rating
21 -1.33 Philadelphia Eagles 2.53 (11)
22 -1.69 Pittsburgh Steelers -0.30 (18)
23 -1.87 Las Vegas Raiders -10.70 (31)
24 -2.47 Washington Commanders -5.88 (27)
25 -2.57 Dallas Cowboys -3.90 (23)
26 -2.69 Green Bay Packers 1.17 (15)
27 -3.88 Detroit Lions 4.04 (9)
28 -3.97 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.16 (19)
29 -5.15 New York Jets -11.78 (32)
30 -5.31 Indianapolis Colts 4.18 (8)
31 -5.92 Arizona Cardinals -4.77 (26)
32 -6.35 Kansas City Chiefs 1.67 (12)
Offense Trend
Rank Trend Team Offense
1 +2.64 Jacksonville Jaguars 4.64 (7)
2 +2.58 Tennessee Titans -3.92 (27)
3 +2.37 Los Angeles Rams 7.88 (1)
4 +2.27 Houston Texans 1.13 (13)
5 +2.09 Atlanta Falcons -1.83 (21)
6 +1.98 Cincinnati Bengals 1.71 (12)
7 +1.69 New Orleans Saints -5.00 (29)
8 +1.62 New York Giants -0.61 (18)
9 +1.52 San Francisco 49ers 3.18 (8)
10 +1.21 Carolina Panthers -4.06 (28)
11 +1.12 New England Patriots 2.83 (9)
12 +1.01 Seattle Seahawks 6.87 (2)
13 +0.89 Chicago Bears 2.32 (10)
14 +0.27 Denver Broncos -0.15 (15)
15 +0.06 Buffalo Bills 5.39 (4)
16 +0.04 Cleveland Browns -7.81 (31)
17 -0.42 Green Bay Packers -0.17 (16)
18 -1.02 Las Vegas Raiders -7.90 (32)
19 -1.23 Arizona Cardinals -1.44 (19)
20 -1.26 Miami Dolphins -3.70 (26)
Rank Trend Team Offense
21 -1.48 Washington Commanders -2.10 (24)
22 -1.68 Baltimore Ravens 1.88 (11)
23 -2.00 Minnesota Vikings -3.09 (25)
24 -2.13 Los Angeles Chargers -1.76 (20)
25 -2.26 Indianapolis Colts 5.40 (3)
26 -2.30 Dallas Cowboys 4.65 (6)
27 -2.54 Philadelphia Eagles -2.00 (23)
28 -2.82 Pittsburgh Steelers -0.33 (17)
29 -2.83 New York Jets -5.49 (30)
30 -3.11 Detroit Lions 5.16 (5)
31 -3.53 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.19 (14)
32 -5.24 Kansas City Chiefs -1.85 (22)
Defense Trend
Rank Trend Team Defense
1 +4.96 Minnesota Vikings 4.03 (4)
2 +3.98 New England Patriots 3.93 (5)
3 +3.87 Baltimore Ravens -0.41 (18)
4 +3.28 Chicago Bears -1.13 (21)
5 +3.04 Cincinnati Bengals -6.40 (31)
6 +2.95 Seattle Seahawks 6.87 (2)
7 +2.69 Los Angeles Chargers 2.08 (10)
8 +2.04 New York Giants -2.94 (26)
9 +1.57 New Orleans Saints 0.36 (14)
10 +1.55 Jacksonville Jaguars 3.07 (9)
11 +1.51 Cleveland Browns 0.28 (15)
12 +1.21 Philadelphia Eagles 4.54 (3)
13 +1.12 Pittsburgh Steelers 0.04 (16)
14 +1.06 Buffalo Bills -0.51 (19)
15 +0.60 Miami Dolphins -2.67 (24)
16 +0.38 Carolina Panthers 1.04 (13)
17 +0.09 Denver Broncos 3.68 (6)
18 -0.27 Dallas Cowboys -8.58 (32)
19 -0.43 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.32 (23)
20 -0.69 Atlanta Falcons -0.34 (17)
Rank Trend Team Defense
21 -0.76 Detroit Lions -1.11 (20)
22 -0.86 Las Vegas Raiders -2.81 (25)
23 -0.99 Washington Commanders -3.76 (28)
24 -1.11 Kansas City Chiefs 3.53 (7)
25 -1.66 Tennessee Titans -3.95 (29)
26 -2.27 Green Bay Packers 1.34 (12)
27 -2.33 New York Jets -6.29 (30)
28 -2.34 San Francisco 49ers 1.59 (11)
29 -2.98 Houston Texans 6.89 (1)
30 -3.05 Indianapolis Colts -1.22 (22)
31 -3.35 Los Angeles Rams 3.42 (8)
32 -4.69 Arizona Cardinals -3.31 (27)What does it all mean? My ratings have the Seahawks as favored by roughly a touchdown and with around a 70% chance of winning. Accounting for the relative improvement of the Patriots and Seahawks during the season would lower that spread to a bit under six points. Then using a logistic distribution for the range of outcomes would move it even closer to an even matchup. Although I haven’t done the exact math, my intuition is that the Seahawks have somewhere around a 60-65% chance of winning. The Seahawks are favored, but Super Bowl LX is a closer matchup than it initially appears.
Somewhere amid the commercials and the long halftime show, there’s a football game to be played today. And it’s an intriguing game that’s more even and less unexpected than many of the pundits are saying. I’m still picking the Seahawks, but I can’t help but think back 24 years ago to Super Bowl XXXVI. That season, the Saint Louis Rams appeared dominant against a New England team that finished in last place one year prior and appeared to be a clear underdog. But those Patriots had improved considerably over the 2001 season, second only to Washington by my calculations, and they upset the Rams to start a dynasty. Accounting for how those two teams trended during the season, it was probably more even than Super Bowl LX. But it’s a cautionary tale that although the Seahawks are the favorite, don’t count the Patriots out.
Thanks for reading!
This article uses ratings based on data acquired from Pro Football Reference.