Computer Ratings and Predictions for the College Football Playoff Quarterfinal
Which of the eight remaining teams have the best chance to advance in the college football playoff?
Good afternoon, and happy new year! I've updated my college football ratings based on the Army-Navy game and the first round of the college football playoff. The ratings also include postseason games from lower divisions. They do not, however, include FBS and FCS bowl games outside of the college football playoff. My rationale is that with players opting out of bowl games and entering the transfer portal prior to many bowl games, some bowl games may not be representative of a team's quality during the rest of the season, and it could adversely affect the ratings. This is just a quick article, but I plan to have some more detailed statistical analysis from this season in upcoming articles. If you haven’t seen these ratings before, I recommend reading my description of how these ratings are created.
The predictive ratings here are based purely on points. I also include a team's strength of record, which is combined with the predictive rating to calculate the overall rating. Schedule strength is based on the average of a team's opponents' predictive rating. Here are the ratings for all 134 FBS teams:
Overall Ratings
Home advantage: 2.53 points
Rank Rating Team Predictive Record Schedule
1 69.91 Notre Dame 71.46 (1) 68.36 (3) 45.58 (56)
2 69.43 Texas 70.93 (2) 67.94 (4) 50.08 (19)
3 68.97 Oregon 64.29 (10) 73.66 (1) 46.41 (46)
4 68.84 Georgia 67.06 (6) 70.63 (2) 54.26 (1)
5 67.22 Ohio State 70.61 (3) 63.84 (9) 45.91 (49)
6 66.47 Alabama 69.26 (4) 63.69 (12) 51.67 (8)
7 65.19 Tennessee 66.67 (7) 63.70 (11) 44.88 (59)
8 65.15 Indiana 66.59 (8) 63.71 (10) 39.48 (76)
9 64.33 Ole Miss 68.80 (5) 59.85 (20) 45.89 (50)
10 64.07 SMU 63.54 (11) 64.59 (8) 45.10 (57)
11 64.03 Penn State 62.89 (13) 65.17 (7) 46.02 (47)
12 63.80 Arizona State 60.41 (16) 67.18 (5) 48.80 (30)
13 63.76 South Carolina 64.45 (9) 63.07 (13) 50.52 (14)
14 62.71 Miami 62.90 (12) 62.51 (15) 43.36 (64)
15 61.73 BYU 58.04 (20) 65.43 (6) 47.64 (38)
16 61.60 Colorado 61.31 (15) 61.90 (17) 48.98 (28)
17 60.59 Clemson 59.95 (17) 61.23 (18) 47.04 (42)
18 60.32 Louisville 62.74 (14) 57.90 (24) 50.14 (18)
19 59.59 Iowa State 56.76 (27) 62.43 (16) 48.22 (34)
20 59.21 Boise State 55.63 (32) 62.78 (14) 38.18 (82)
Rank Rating Team Predictive Record Schedule
21 59.12 LSU 58.27 (19) 59.98 (19) 52.60 (5)
22 57.96 Texas A&M 58.42 (18) 57.50 (26) 49.45 (24)
23 57.64 Kansas State 57.61 (22) 57.67 (25) 49.77 (20)
24 57.38 Missouri 54.97 (33) 59.78 (21) 45.79 (52)
25 56.83 Florida 57.77 (21) 55.89 (29) 53.96 (2)
26 56.79 Baylor 57.19 (24) 56.39 (28) 48.07 (36)
27 55.52 Iowa 56.80 (26) 54.25 (35) 45.78 (54)
28 54.78 Syracuse 49.93 (47) 59.62 (22) 46.02 (48)
29 54.27 Illinois 50.62 (45) 57.92 (23) 43.59 (63)
30 53.74 TCU 52.55 (38) 54.93 (32) 45.78 (53)
31 53.61 Michigan 53.43 (34) 53.78 (37) 51.57 (9)
32 53.47 Minnesota 56.02 (29) 50.91 (41) 46.91 (43)
33 53.46 UNLV 52.27 (39) 54.66 (33) 38.14 (83)
34 53.40 Texas Tech 51.12 (42) 55.68 (30) 47.19 (40)
35 53.30 Tulane 55.97 (30) 50.64 (43) 38.97 (78)
36 53.29 USC 57.31 (23) 49.28 (48) 51.14 (12)
37 53.23 Oklahoma 55.91 (31) 50.55 (44) 52.91 (4)
38 52.56 Virginia Tech 56.86 (25) 48.27 (52) 49.74 (21)
39 52.49 Georgia Tech 52.98 (36) 52.00 (39) 48.14 (35)
40 52.46 Army 49.39 (51) 55.52 (31) 34.50 (105)
Rank Rating Team Predictive Record Schedule
41 51.98 Duke 46.90 (58) 57.06 (27) 42.97 (66)
42 51.14 Marshall 47.63 (56) 54.65 (34) 38.93 (79)
43 51.12 Kansas 56.50 (28) 45.74 (60) 52.19 (7)
44 50.85 Vanderbilt 52.96 (37) 48.74 (49) 49.60 (23)
45 50.38 Boston College 50.76 (44) 50.00 (45) 45.79 (51)
46 50.14 Navy 47.56 (57) 52.72 (38) 37.39 (86)
47 49.88 Memphis 45.55 (64) 54.20 (36) 33.32 (109)
48 49.86 Pittsburgh 49.85 (49) 49.86 (46) 44.89 (58)
49 49.07 Arkansas 51.33 (41) 46.80 (55) 46.68 (45)
50 48.23 Nebraska 50.61 (46) 45.86 (59) 46.71 (44)
51 48.15 Rutgers 47.72 (55) 48.57 (50) 43.24 (65)
52 47.56 Washington 48.00 (53) 47.12 (54) 48.52 (31)
53 47.38 Auburn 53.07 (35) 41.69 (77) 47.07 (41)
54 46.96 Louisiana 43.11 (69) 50.80 (42) 33.04 (115)
55 46.87 West Virginia 45.99 (62) 47.74 (53) 48.37 (33)
56 46.79 Georgia Southern 42.67 (72) 50.92 (40) 41.75 (69)
57 46.61 Cincinnati 49.92 (48) 43.30 (69) 49.31 (27)
58 46.60 Utah 51.04 (43) 42.17 (74) 48.00 (37)
59 46.27 Ohio 42.95 (70) 49.59 (47) 31.38 (125)
60 46.12 Wisconsin 48.91 (52) 43.33 (68) 49.62 (22)
Rank Rating Team Predictive Record Schedule
61 45.90 UCLA 45.78 (63) 46.03 (57) 52.96 (3)
62 45.61 California 47.85 (54) 43.37 (67) 43.88 (62)
63 45.59 James Madison 46.33 (61) 44.85 (61) 33.13 (114)
64 45.23 Washington State 44.04 (67) 46.41 (56) 35.77 (98)
65 45.04 Kentucky 49.82 (50) 40.27 (81) 51.17 (11)
66 44.79 North Carolina 46.83 (59) 42.75 (71) 42.80 (67)
67 44.77 UCF 51.58 (40) 37.97 (90) 48.48 (32)
68 43.82 Virginia 44.06 (66) 43.58 (65) 50.24 (17)
69 43.53 NC State 43.21 (68) 43.85 (62) 44.43 (61)
70 43.49 Texas State 46.39 (60) 40.60 (79) 33.90 (107)
71 42.62 Jacksonville State 41.41 (77) 43.84 (63) 30.20 (129)
72 41.98 Sam Houston 35.53 (95) 48.43 (51) 32.09 (123)
73 41.81 Miami (OH) 39.83 (79) 43.78 (64) 35.80 (97)
74 41.68 UConn 39.87 (78) 43.48 (66) 31.55 (124)
75 41.46 Houston 42.68 (71) 40.25 (82) 51.36 (10)
76 40.62 Colorado State 35.26 (97) 45.99 (58) 34.66 (104)
77 40.10 Old Dominion 42.64 (73) 37.55 (92) 42.62 (68)
78 40.08 Maryland 41.98 (75) 38.19 (88) 49.33 (26)
79 40.07 Michigan State 39.01 (82) 41.13 (78) 45.76 (55)
80 39.86 Bowling Green 39.19 (81) 40.54 (80) 33.00 (117)
Rank Rating Team Predictive Record Schedule
81 39.28 Northern Illinois 38.64 (83) 39.92 (83) 33.31 (110)
82 39.18 San José State 36.64 (92) 41.71 (76) 35.40 (101)
83 39.01 South Alabama 41.42 (76) 36.60 (96) 33.25 (112)
84 38.85 Oklahoma State 42.53 (74) 35.17 (102) 50.75 (13)
85 38.38 Western Kentucky 34.90 (99) 41.85 (75) 33.26 (111)
86 38.33 Northwestern 39.36 (80) 37.30 (95) 47.61 (39)
87 38.18 Arizona 38.22 (85) 38.13 (89) 48.80 (29)
88 38.10 Toledo 37.08 (90) 39.12 (84) 32.19 (122)
89 37.86 South Florida 37.78 (89) 37.94 (91) 35.39 (102)
90 37.83 Liberty 33.19 (103) 42.48 (72) 25.52 (134)
91 37.63 Coastal Carolina 36.79 (91) 38.48 (87) 37.53 (85)
92 37.61 Fresno State 37.83 (88) 37.38 (94) 35.88 (95)
93 37.55 Mississippi State 44.16 (65) 30.95 (108) 52.49 (6)
94 37.33 East Carolina 35.85 (93) 38.81 (86) 31.00 (126)
95 37.19 Buffalo 31.46 (107) 42.92 (70) 30.00 (130)
96 37.12 App State 35.32 (96) 38.91 (85) 41.42 (71)
97 36.65 Wake Forest 37.84 (87) 35.46 (100) 44.62 (60)
98 36.60 North Texas 35.67 (94) 37.53 (93) 35.93 (94)
99 36.17 Stanford 38.41 (84) 33.93 (104) 49.34 (25)
100 35.38 Arkansas State 28.42 (117) 42.34 (73) 35.86 (96)
Rank Rating Team Predictive Record Schedule
101 35.00 UTSA 34.05 (100) 35.95 (98) 33.47 (108)
102 34.14 Oregon State 33.24 (102) 35.05 (103) 39.04 (77)
103 34.07 Florida State 37.97 (86) 30.16 (109) 50.48 (15)
104 33.39 UL Monroe 31.36 (108) 35.43 (101) 39.59 (75)
105 32.83 Western Michigan 30.17 (113) 35.49 (99) 32.23 (121)
106 32.50 Charlotte 28.91 (116) 36.08 (97) 40.32 (73)
107 32.18 Air Force 31.67 (105) 32.69 (105) 36.01 (93)
108 31.41 New Mexico 30.89 (111) 31.93 (106) 35.45 (100)
109 31.14 Troy 33.77 (101) 28.50 (113) 36.04 (92)
110 31.10 Rice 32.84 (104) 29.36 (110) 36.72 (90)
111 30.36 Nevada 35.10 (98) 25.61 (119) 40.68 (72)
112 30.33 Hawai'i 29.16 (115) 31.50 (107) 32.90 (118)
113 30.09 Utah State 31.09 (110) 29.09 (112) 37.01 (89)
114 29.56 Georgia State 31.56 (106) 27.56 (115) 41.59 (70)
115 28.52 Louisiana Tech 29.77 (114) 27.27 (116) 27.92 (133)
116 28.23 Wyoming 30.53 (112) 25.93 (117) 39.75 (74)
117 27.91 Eastern Michigan 27.48 (119) 28.33 (114) 29.43 (132)
118 27.47 Florida International 31.19 (109) 23.76 (124) 30.82 (127)
119 27.42 Akron 25.57 (124) 29.26 (111) 37.06 (88)
120 26.31 UAB 28.25 (118) 24.37 (123) 36.16 (91)
Rank Rating Team Predictive Record Schedule
121 26.17 Purdue 27.26 (120) 25.07 (121) 50.28 (16)
122 25.75 Central Michigan 25.76 (123) 25.74 (118) 33.02 (116)
123 24.61 San Diego State 26.63 (121) 22.59 (125) 34.73 (103)
124 23.91 Ball State 23.32 (125) 24.51 (122) 37.56 (84)
125 23.78 Temple 22.26 (127) 25.30 (120) 38.40 (81)
126 22.98 Florida Atlantic 26.32 (122) 19.63 (129) 30.61 (128)
127 20.71 Massachusetts 22.47 (126) 18.95 (131) 35.53 (99)
128 20.66 UTEP 20.26 (128) 21.05 (127) 33.16 (113)
129 19.69 Middle Tennessee 17.77 (129) 21.61 (126) 33.95 (106)
130 18.89 New Mexico State 17.39 (130) 20.40 (128) 32.51 (119)
131 16.25 Southern Miss 16.46 (132) 16.05 (132) 38.89 (80)
132 16.09 Kennesaw State 16.98 (131) 15.19 (133) 32.23 (120)
133 15.85 Tulsa 12.33 (133) 19.38 (130) 29.57 (131)
134 8.90 Kent State 7.37 (134) 10.43 (134) 37.13 (87) Here are the predictions for the four college football playoff quarterfinal games. They use the predictive ratings. Because these are all neutral site games, the home advantage doesn't apply here. The margin of victory in these predictions is just the result of subtracting the predictive rating for both teams.
Game rank #1: Notre Dame (4.40, 62.55%) vs. Georgia (-4.40, 37.45%)
Competitive quality: 97.52%, Team quality: 98.61%
Overall game quality: 98.25%
Game rank #2: Ohio State (6.32, 67.45%) vs. Oregon (-6.32, 32.55%)
Competitive quality: 94.86%, Team quality: 98.37%
Overall game quality: 97.19%
Game rank #3: Penn State (7.26, 69.65%) vs. Boise State (-7.26, 30.35%)
Competitive quality: 93.21%, Team quality: 96.96%
Overall game quality: 95.69%
Game rank #4: Texas (10.51, 76.32%) vs. Arizona State (-10.51, 23.68%)
Competitive quality: 85.64%, Team quality: 98.04%
Overall game quality: 93.72%Enjoy the quarterfinal games, and have a safe and happy new year! I’ve got more statistical analysis coming soon.
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