College Football Computer Ratings and Bowl Game Projections
Projections for today's Army-Navy game and 39 FBS bowl games, including the first round of the college football playoff
If you're new to my football ratings, I encourage you read my previous article describing how they work. The ratings in this article are based on games through December 7, 2024.
I intend these to be nearly final ratings, though I might release a small update in a couple of weeks including the result of today's Army-Navy game and the first round of the college football playoff. I'm not planning to include other bows in the final ratings, though. Because many players who are planning to enter the NFL opt out of bowl games, the quality of teams playing bowl games is not necessarily the same as during the regular season. Instead of trying to adjust for this or subjectively exclude games affected heavily by players opting out, I'm excluding all bowl games except the playoff.
It also means that bowl game predictions will probably be less accurate. I can envision ways to try to adjust for players opting out like using the percentage of a team's regular season production that's available for the bowl. But that's really beyond the scope of what I'm trying to do with these ratings.
Team Ratings
Here's a quick explanation on what these ratings mean. Predictive ratings (the "Predictive" column) are based purely on the score of the games and do not take into account wins and losses. Of the three ratings I include here, this is probably the best at predicting future performance. To estimate the margin of victory in a future game, take the home team's rating, subtract the visiting team's rating, and then add in the home field advantage if it's not a neutral site game.
Strength of record (the "Record" column) uses the predictive ratings as a measure of the quality of each team, estimates how certain benchmark teams like an average FBS or average college football team in any division would fare against the schedule, and compares it against the team's actual winning percentage. This is closer to what the college football playoff selection committee is intended to do, which is to evaluate which teams are most deserving of earning a playoff berth.
The overall rating (the "Rating" column) is the mean of the predictive and strength of record ratings, intended to account for both a team's quality and their wins during the season. Schedule strength is not directly included in any of the ratings, but the rating in the table (the "Schedule" column) is the mean of the predictive ratings for the team's opponents to date, adding in the home field advantage adjustment as appropriate. Here are the ratings:
Overall Ratings
Home advantage: 2.55 points
Rank Rating Team Predictive Record Schedule
1 69.76 Notre Dame 71.44 (1) 68.08 (3) 45.30 (56)
2 69.53 Texas 71.22 (2) 67.83 (4) 50.00 (18)
3 69.00 Oregon 64.40 (10) 73.59 (1) 46.38 (46)
4 68.70 Georgia 67.00 (6) 70.40 (2) 54.07 (1)
5 66.86 Ohio State 70.04 (3) 63.69 (9) 45.82 (47)
6 66.22 Alabama 69.04 (4) 63.40 (12) 51.36 (9)
7 65.04 Indiana 66.62 (7) 63.46 (11) 39.19 (76)
8 64.96 Tennessee 66.38 (8) 63.55 (10) 44.78 (58)
9 64.34 Ole Miss 69.03 (5) 59.65 (20) 45.67 (51)
10 64.18 Penn State 63.40 (12) 64.96 (7) 45.80 (48)
11 63.96 SMU 63.41 (11) 64.50 (8) 45.08 (57)
12 63.62 South Carolina 64.42 (9) 62.82 (13) 50.25 (14)
13 63.53 Arizona State 60.00 (16) 67.06 (5) 48.71 (28)
14 62.43 Miami 62.66 (14) 62.19 (16) 43.03 (64)
15 61.75 BYU 58.25 (19) 65.25 (6) 47.44 (39)
16 61.23 Colorado 60.84 (15) 61.63 (17) 48.70 (29)
17 60.45 Clemson 59.87 (17) 61.03 (18) 46.83 (42)
18 60.20 Louisville 62.74 (13) 57.66 (25) 49.91 (19)
19 59.47 Iowa State 56.65 (25) 62.30 (15) 48.12 (34)
20 59.12 Boise State 55.56 (30) 62.68 (14) 38.12 (82)
Rank Rating Team Predictive Record Schedule
21 58.82 LSU 57.89 (20) 59.75 (19) 52.40 (5)
22 58.06 Texas A&M 58.72 (18) 57.40 (27) 49.44 (22)
23 57.64 Kansas State 57.79 (21) 57.49 (26) 49.61 (20)
24 56.91 Missouri 54.22 (33) 59.61 (21) 45.62 (53)
25 56.68 Florida 57.60 (22) 55.76 (30) 53.88 (2)
26 56.61 Baylor 57.02 (23) 56.20 (29) 47.88 (37)
27 55.42 Iowa 56.83 (24) 54.00 (35) 45.49 (54)
28 54.55 Syracuse 49.81 (49) 59.30 (22) 45.66 (52)
29 54.48 Army 50.55 (44) 58.42 (23) 33.19 (108)
30 54.10 Illinois 50.49 (45) 57.71 (24) 43.42 (63)
31 53.83 TCU 52.84 (37) 54.81 (32) 45.71 (49)
32 53.49 Michigan 53.39 (34) 53.59 (37) 51.41 (8)
33 53.15 Texas Tech 50.82 (42) 55.48 (31) 46.99 (40)
34 53.14 UNLV 51.74 (40) 54.54 (33) 38.04 (83)
35 53.14 Minnesota 55.56 (31) 50.73 (39) 46.74 (43)
36 53.06 Tulane 55.83 (29) 50.29 (43) 38.57 (79)
37 52.87 Oklahoma 55.34 (32) 50.40 (42) 52.82 (4)
38 52.77 USC 56.41 (26) 49.13 (48) 51.01 (12)
39 52.18 Virginia Tech 56.29 (27) 48.08 (52) 49.55 (21)
40 51.86 Duke 47.00 (57) 56.72 (28) 42.60 (66)
Rank Rating Team Predictive Record Schedule
41 51.83 Georgia Tech 51.87 (38) 51.78 (38) 47.93 (35)
42 50.87 Marshall 47.32 (55) 54.42 (34) 38.67 (78)
43 50.82 Kansas 56.05 (28) 45.60 (60) 52.07 (7)
44 50.78 Vanderbilt 53.08 (35) 48.48 (49) 49.35 (24)
45 50.15 Boston College 50.62 (43) 49.69 (45) 45.42 (55)
46 49.62 Memphis 45.54 (62) 53.71 (36) 32.71 (117)
47 49.58 Pittsburgh 49.55 (50) 49.61 (46) 44.62 (59)
48 48.97 Arkansas 51.36 (41) 46.59 (55) 46.49 (44)
49 48.04 Navy 45.79 (60) 50.28 (44) 35.95 (90)
50 48.00 Nebraska 50.36 (46) 45.64 (59) 46.47 (45)
51 47.86 Rutgers 47.45 (54) 48.27 (51) 42.85 (65)
52 47.49 Washington 48.03 (53) 46.96 (54) 48.42 (31)
53 47.19 Auburn 52.91 (36) 41.47 (77) 46.86 (41)
54 46.81 Louisiana 42.98 (69) 50.63 (41) 32.91 (113)
55 46.62 Georgia Southern 42.60 (72) 50.65 (40) 41.49 (69)
56 46.55 West Virginia 45.47 (64) 47.63 (53) 48.30 (32)
57 46.53 Cincinnati 49.87 (48) 43.19 (68) 49.23 (25)
58 46.19 Utah 50.30 (47) 42.08 (74) 47.93 (36)
59 45.97 Ohio 42.67 (70) 49.27 (47) 31.00 (125)
60 45.94 Wisconsin 48.77 (52) 43.12 (69) 49.42 (23)
Rank Rating Team Predictive Record Schedule
61 45.67 UCLA 45.47 (63) 45.86 (58) 52.82 (3)
62 45.31 Washington State 44.31 (65) 46.32 (56) 35.71 (96)
63 45.21 California 47.19 (56) 43.24 (67) 43.76 (62)
64 45.10 James Madison 45.60 (61) 44.60 (61) 32.85 (115)
65 44.80 UCF 51.83 (39) 37.77 (90) 48.29 (33)
66 44.77 Kentucky 49.41 (51) 40.13 (81) 51.06 (11)
67 44.40 North Carolina 46.44 (58) 42.36 (71) 42.35 (68)
68 43.63 Virginia 43.89 (67) 43.37 (65) 50.02 (17)
69 43.40 Texas State 46.44 (59) 40.36 (80) 33.65 (106)
70 43.12 NC State 42.66 (71) 43.58 (63) 44.13 (61)
71 42.21 Jacksonville State 40.78 (76) 43.63 (62) 30.03 (129)
72 41.80 Sam Houston 35.25 (95) 48.35 (50) 32.09 (120)
73 41.58 Miami (OH) 39.62 (79) 43.54 (64) 35.55 (98)
74 41.55 Houston 43.03 (68) 40.06 (82) 51.18 (10)
75 41.50 UConn 39.75 (78) 43.24 (66) 31.30 (124)
76 40.47 Colorado State 35.06 (97) 45.88 (57) 34.60 (104)
77 39.96 Maryland 41.93 (75) 37.99 (88) 49.17 (26)
78 39.91 Bowling Green 39.44 (80) 40.37 (79) 32.90 (114)
79 39.86 Old Dominion 42.30 (73) 37.42 (93) 42.51 (67)
80 39.85 Michigan State 38.70 (83) 41.01 (78) 45.68 (50)
Rank Rating Team Predictive Record Schedule
81 39.04 San José State 36.39 (92) 41.69 (75) 35.47 (99)
82 38.97 Northern Illinois 38.23 (84) 39.71 (83) 33.09 (111)
83 38.51 South Alabama 40.57 (77) 36.45 (96) 33.17 (109)
84 38.46 Oklahoma State 42.05 (74) 34.87 (103) 50.42 (13)
85 38.07 Arizona 38.16 (85) 37.99 (89) 48.68 (30)
86 38.06 Northwestern 38.93 (81) 37.20 (95) 47.52 (38)
87 38.01 Western Kentucky 34.38 (99) 41.64 (76) 33.11 (110)
88 37.71 Toledo 36.56 (90) 38.86 (84) 31.86 (123)
89 37.59 Liberty 32.88 (103) 42.29 (72) 25.37 (134)
90 37.51 Mississippi State 44.29 (66) 30.73 (108) 52.28 (6)
91 37.47 Fresno State 37.67 (86) 37.28 (94) 35.82 (95)
92 37.38 South Florida 37.22 (89) 37.54 (91) 34.90 (102)
93 37.36 Coastal Carolina 36.51 (91) 38.20 (87) 37.25 (85)
94 37.24 East Carolina 35.94 (93) 38.55 (86) 30.75 (127)
95 36.96 App State 35.27 (94) 38.66 (85) 41.16 (71)
96 36.87 Buffalo 31.12 (108) 42.61 (70) 29.64 (130)
97 36.44 Wake Forest 37.58 (87) 35.29 (99) 44.47 (60)
98 36.35 North Texas 35.21 (96) 37.50 (92) 35.92 (92)
99 36.25 Stanford 38.77 (82) 33.72 (104) 49.15 (27)
100 35.55 Arkansas State 29.00 (116) 42.10 (73) 35.59 (97)
Rank Rating Team Predictive Record Schedule
101 35.05 UTSA 34.15 (100) 35.95 (97) 33.60 (107)
102 34.09 Oregon State 33.30 (101) 34.88 (102) 38.88 (77)
103 33.75 Florida State 37.58 (88) 29.91 (109) 50.22 (15)
104 33.21 UL Monroe 31.27 (107) 35.15 (101) 39.30 (75)
105 32.90 Western Michigan 30.54 (113) 35.25 (100) 31.94 (122)
106 32.15 Air Force 31.77 (105) 32.54 (105) 35.89 (94)
107 31.85 Charlotte 27.99 (117) 35.72 (98) 39.93 (73)
108 31.24 New Mexico 30.66 (112) 31.82 (106) 35.37 (100)
109 30.86 Rice 32.63 (104) 29.09 (110) 36.39 (89)
110 30.77 Troy 33.16 (102) 28.38 (113) 35.94 (91)
111 30.28 Hawai'i 29.23 (115) 31.32 (107) 32.67 (118)
112 30.24 Nevada 35.02 (98) 25.45 (119) 40.51 (72)
113 29.92 Utah State 30.95 (110) 28.89 (112) 36.82 (87)
114 29.35 Georgia State 31.33 (106) 27.37 (115) 41.40 (70)
115 28.42 Louisiana Tech 29.74 (114) 27.10 (116) 27.82 (133)
116 28.33 Wyoming 30.79 (111) 25.87 (117) 39.72 (74)
117 27.53 Eastern Michigan 26.97 (120) 28.09 (114) 29.19 (132)
118 27.35 Florida International 31.03 (109) 23.67 (124) 30.82 (126)
119 27.01 Akron 24.96 (124) 29.06 (111) 36.82 (88)
120 26.02 Purdue 27.10 (118) 24.93 (121) 50.15 (16)
Rank Rating Team Predictive Record Schedule
121 25.60 Central Michigan 25.63 (123) 25.56 (118) 32.84 (116)
122 25.59 UAB 27.06 (119) 24.13 (123) 35.90 (93)
123 24.50 San Diego State 26.52 (121) 22.49 (125) 34.65 (103)
124 23.69 Ball State 23.06 (125) 24.33 (122) 37.38 (84)
125 23.57 Temple 22.02 (126) 25.12 (120) 38.19 (81)
126 22.97 Florida Atlantic 26.45 (122) 19.48 (129) 30.43 (128)
127 20.83 UTEP 20.76 (128) 20.90 (127) 33.05 (112)
128 20.28 Massachusetts 21.89 (127) 18.68 (131) 35.24 (101)
129 19.51 Middle Tennessee 17.52 (131) 21.50 (126) 33.94 (105)
130 18.99 New Mexico State 17.78 (129) 20.19 (128) 32.31 (119)
131 16.34 Kennesaw State 17.65 (130) 15.03 (133) 32.08 (121)
132 15.93 Southern Miss 16.11 (132) 15.74 (132) 38.54 (80)
133 15.55 Tulsa 11.82 (133) 19.29 (130) 29.56 (131)
134 8.83 Kent State 7.37 (134) 10.29 (134) 36.99 (86) Game Predictions
Here are the game predictions for the Army-Navy game and bowl games, not including later rounds of the playoff, ranked by my estimate of overall game quality. This takes into account the quality of the teams and the probability that the score of the game will be competitive. The team qualities are generally higher than for my NFL ratings because the quality of all college football teams are ranked, not just those at the FBS level. My goal is to try to rank the games according to which matchups are most compelling. For each team, I list their expected margin of victory and their probability of winning. The margin of victory is positive if the computer ratings predict that a team will win, but it's negative if they're expected to lose.
Here's the prediction for the one regular season college football game left, which will be played this afternoon:
Game rank #1: Jackson State (-7.03, 30.86%) vs. South Carolina State (7.03, 69.14%)
Competitive quality: 93.63%, Team quality: 76.44%
Overall game quality: 81.79%There's only one regular season game, so it automatically gets ranked #1 by my system. Although Army is favored, it's a fairly competitive game with both teams near the top of their conference.
Here are the predictions for all 39 FBS bowl games with matchups that have been set, plus the Celebration Bowl. I'll post predictions for later rounds of the playoff after the conclusion of the opening round.
Game rank #1: SMU (-2.54, 42.61%) @ Penn State (2.54, 57.39%)
Competitive quality: 99.18%, Team quality: 97.87%
Overall game quality: 98.31%
Game rank #2: BYU (-2.59, 42.46%) vs. Colorado (2.59, 57.54%)
Competitive quality: 99.15%, Team quality: 97.16%
Overall game quality: 97.82%
Game rank #3: Baylor (-0.87, 47.46%) vs. LSU (0.87, 52.54%)
Competitive quality: 99.91%, Team quality: 96.71%
Overall game quality: 97.76%
Game rank #4: Texas A&M (2.31, 56.75%) vs. USC (-2.31, 43.25%)
Competitive quality: 99.32%, Team quality: 96.72%
Overall game quality: 97.58%
Game rank #5: Tulane (-1.76, 44.84%) vs. Florida (1.76, 55.16%)
Competitive quality: 99.61%, Team quality: 96.52%
Overall game quality: 97.54%
Game rank #6: Minnesota (-0.73, 47.85%) vs. Virginia Tech (0.73, 52.15%)
Competitive quality: 99.93%, Team quality: 96.33%
Overall game quality: 97.51%
Game rank #7: Tennessee (-6.21, 32.83%) @ Ohio State (6.21, 67.17%)
Competitive quality: 95.05%, Team quality: 98.51%
Overall game quality: 97.34%
Game rank #8: Iowa (2.62, 57.62%) vs. Missouri (-2.62, 42.38%)
Competitive quality: 99.13%, Team quality: 96.21%
Overall game quality: 97.17%
Game rank #9: Georgia Tech (-1.21, 46.45%) vs. Vanderbilt (1.21, 53.55%)
Competitive quality: 99.81%, Team quality: 95.35%
Overall game quality: 96.81%
Game rank #10: Indiana (-7.37, 30.08%) @ Notre Dame (7.37, 69.92%)
Competitive quality: 92.99%, Team quality: 98.59%
Overall game quality: 96.69%
Game rank #11: Texas Tech (-0.54, 48.42%) vs. Arkansas (0.54, 51.58%)
Competitive quality: 99.96%, Team quality: 94.90%
Overall game quality: 96.56%
Game rank #12: Iowa State (-6.01, 33.31%) vs. Miami (6.01, 66.69%)
Competitive quality: 95.36%, Team quality: 97.13%
Overall game quality: 96.54%
Game rank #13: Boston College (0.27, 50.78%) vs. Nebraska (-0.27, 49.22%)
Competitive quality: 99.99%, Team quality: 94.70%
Overall game quality: 96.43%
Game rank #14: Marshall (-3.22, 40.67%) vs. Army (3.22, 59.33%)
Competitive quality: 98.68%, Team quality: 94.11%
Overall game quality: 95.61%
Game rank #15: California (-4.56, 37.03%) vs. UNLV (4.56, 62.97%)
Competitive quality: 97.35%, Team quality: 94.28%
Overall game quality: 95.29%
Game rank #16: Memphis (0.07, 50.20%) vs. West Virginia (-0.07, 49.80%)
Competitive quality: 100.00%, Team quality: 92.74%
Overall game quality: 95.10%
Game rank #17: Syracuse (5.50, 65.41%) vs. Washington State (-5.50, 34.59%)
Competitive quality: 96.13%, Team quality: 93.32%
Overall game quality: 94.25%
Game rank #18: Ohio (1.89, 55.53%) vs. Jacksonville State (-1.89, 44.47%)
Competitive quality: 99.55%, Team quality: 90.91%
Overall game quality: 93.70%
Game rank #19: UConn (-6.68, 31.69%) vs. North Carolina (6.68, 68.31%)
Competitive quality: 94.26%, Team quality: 91.48%
Overall game quality: 92.39%
Game rank #20: Northern Illinois (0.56, 51.65%) vs. Fresno State (-0.56, 48.35%)
Competitive quality: 99.96%, Team quality: 88.77%
Overall game quality: 92.35%
Game rank #21: Oklahoma (9.55, 74.51%) vs. Navy (-9.55, 25.49%)
Competitive quality: 88.17%, Team quality: 94.51%
Overall game quality: 92.35%
Game rank #22: Rutgers (-10.34, 23.99%) vs. Kansas State (10.34, 76.01%)
Competitive quality: 86.11%, Team quality: 95.16%
Overall game quality: 92.04%
Game rank #23: South Florida (0.82, 52.42%) vs. San José State (-0.82, 47.58%)
Competitive quality: 99.91%, Team quality: 88.06%
Overall game quality: 91.84%
Game rank #24: Louisiana (-9.86, 24.89%) vs. TCU (9.86, 75.11%)
Competitive quality: 87.39%, Team quality: 93.49%
Overall game quality: 91.41%
Game rank #25: Miami (OH) (4.56, 62.97%) vs. Colorado State (-4.56, 37.03%)
Competitive quality: 97.34%, Team quality: 88.33%
Overall game quality: 91.24%
Game rank #26: Coastal Carolina (-0.18, 49.46%) @ UTSA (0.18, 50.54%)
Competitive quality: 100.00%, Team quality: 87.09%
Overall game quality: 91.20%
Game rank #27: East Carolina (-6.72, 31.59%) vs. NC State (6.72, 68.41%)
Competitive quality: 94.18%, Team quality: 89.43%
Overall game quality: 90.98%
Game rank #28: Georgia Southern (7.34, 69.85%) vs. Sam Houston (-7.34, 30.15%)
Competitive quality: 93.05%, Team quality: 89.18%
Overall game quality: 90.45%
Game rank #29: Clemson (-13.90, 18.33%) @ Texas (13.90, 81.67%)
Competitive quality: 75.06%, Team quality: 97.97%
Overall game quality: 89.65%
Game rank #30: Buffalo (-1.76, 44.85%) vs. Liberty (1.76, 55.15%)
Competitive quality: 99.61%, Team quality: 84.70%
Overall game quality: 89.40%
Game rank #31: South Carolina (13.92, 81.71%) vs. Illinois (-13.92, 18.29%)
Competitive quality: 74.97%, Team quality: 96.36%
Overall game quality: 88.62%
Game rank #32: North Texas (-11.23, 22.42%) vs. Texas State (11.23, 77.58%)
Competitive quality: 83.62%, Team quality: 90.02%
Overall game quality: 87.84%
Game rank #33: Western Kentucky (-11.22, 22.42%) vs. James Madison (11.22, 77.58%)
Competitive quality: 83.63%, Team quality: 89.55%
Overall game quality: 87.53%
Game rank #34: Louisville (14.72, 82.75%) vs. Washington (-14.72, 17.25%)
Competitive quality: 72.17%, Team quality: 95.76%
Overall game quality: 87.15%
Game rank #35: South Alabama (10.03, 75.43%) vs. Western Michigan (-10.03, 24.57%)
Competitive quality: 86.95%, Team quality: 86.87%
Overall game quality: 86.90%
Game rank #36: Alabama (15.65, 83.89%) vs. Michigan (-15.65, 16.11%)
Competitive quality: 68.78%, Team quality: 97.12%
Overall game quality: 86.57%
Game rank #37: Pittsburgh (13.00, 80.39%) vs. Toledo (-13.00, 19.61%)
Competitive quality: 78.11%, Team quality: 91.08%
Overall game quality: 86.53%
Game rank #38: Arkansas State (-10.44, 23.81%) vs. Bowling Green (10.44, 76.19%)
Competitive quality: 85.85%, Team quality: 85.92%
Overall game quality: 85.89%
Game rank #39: Jackson State (-7.03, 30.86%) vs. South Carolina State (7.03, 69.14%)
Competitive quality: 93.63%, Team quality: 76.44%
Overall game quality: 81.79%
Game rank #40: Duke (-22.03, 10.39%) vs. Ole Miss (22.03, 89.61%)
Competitive quality: 45.22%, Team quality: 95.97%
Overall game quality: 74.68%If you're interested in more content like this, please click the "Subscribe" button below and share this article on social media. I develop my own code to generate these ratings and predictions, of course relying on data from others and open source libraries, but none of my content is or will ever be created with generative AI. Your help in supporting more quality content like this is greatly appreciated. This article relies on data from CollegeFootballData.com, which contains a wealth of information about college football, makes it freely available, and shares it in formats that are easily accessible.