College Football Computer Ratings and Conference Championship Predictions
Which conference championship games are projected to be most competitive, and who does the computer rankings predict will win each of the nine games?
If you're new to my football ratings, I encourage you read my previous article describing how they work. The ratings in this article are based on games through November 30, 2024. This is a small update to the previous ratings, then game predictions for this weekend. The photograph for this article’s headline is of Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, the site of this year’s Big Ten championship game, which the computer ratings predict will be the best of the nine FBS games this weekend.
I'll have another article late tonight or early Saturday about the playoff rankings and a closer look at whether Alabama ought to be ranked ahead of Miami. If you've read my articles or some of the recent content on ESPN.com about the playoff rankings, you're probably familiar with the concept of strength of record. I'm going to introduce a similar concept that I'm calling strength of result, which also considers the margin of victory.
Alabama has three losses, but their loss to Tennessee is not a bad loss by any reasonable standard. Using strength of result, Miami's loss to Georgia Tech is slightly worse than Alabama losing to Vanderbilt, but it's fairly close. Miami's loss to Syracuse is a bit worse than either of these, but it's nowhere close to Alabama's three touchdown loss at Oklahoma. The problem isn't that Alabama lost to Oklahoma, which is actually #28 in the predictive ratings. If it had been a close game, it wouldn't be as bad as Miami losing at Syracuse. But it wasn't a close game at all. Collectively, Alabama's losses to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma are worse than Miami losing to Georgia Tech and Syracuse. The problem here isn't that Alabama has three losses, but that their two worst losses are collectively somewhat worse than Miami’s two losses. I don't believe Alabama belongs in the playoff over Miami, and I'll include the strength of result data in that article to make an objective case that the committee got this decision wrong.
Team Ratings
I posted preliminary ratings Sunday morning, but these are updated with a few of the scores from lower division games. As expected, there are a few changes to the ratings. Those changes are small, but it does change the ratings a small amount. As a reminder, predictive ratings (the "Predictive" column) are based purely on the score of the games and do not take into account wins and losses. Of the three ratings I include here, this is probably the best at predicting future performance. To estimate the margin of victory in a future game, take the home team's rating, subtract the visiting team's rating, and then add in the home field advantage if it's not a neutral site game.
Strength of record (the "Record" column) uses the predictive ratings as a measure of the quality of each team, estimates how certain benchmark teams like an average FBS or average college football team in any division would fare against the schedule, and compares it against the team's actual winning percentage. This is closer to what the college football playoff selection committee is intended to do, which is to evaluate which teams are most deserving of earning a playoff berth.
The overall rating (the "Rating" column) is the mean of the predictive and strength of record ratings, intended to account for both a team's quality and their wins during the season. Schedule strength is not directly included in any of the ratings, but the rating in the table (the "Schedule" column) is the mean of the predictive ratings for the team's opponents to date, adding in the home field advantage adjustment as appropriate. Here are the ratings:
Overall Ratings
Home advantage: 2.57 points
Rank Rating Team Predictive Record Schedule
1 70.97 Texas 71.43 (1) 70.50 (2) 48.52 (29)
2 69.50 Notre Dame 71.03 (2) 67.96 (4) 45.43 (53)
3 68.06 Oregon 64.01 (10) 72.11 (1) 44.80 (55)
4 67.52 Georgia 66.56 (7) 68.47 (3) 52.65 (4)
5 66.47 Ohio State 69.77 (3) 63.16 (13) 45.40 (54)
6 66.33 Alabama 69.03 (4) 63.62 (10) 51.91 (8)
7 65.68 Penn State 63.71 (12) 67.65 (5) 44.32 (59)
8 65.57 SMU 63.85 (11) 67.29 (6) 43.78 (61)
9 65.21 Tennessee 67.14 (6) 63.28 (12) 44.65 (57)
10 64.80 Indiana 66.31 (8) 63.29 (11) 39.26 (75)
11 63.84 Ole Miss 68.24 (5) 59.44 (20) 45.59 (50)
12 63.41 South Carolina 64.23 (9) 62.60 (14) 50.20 (15)
13 62.62 Miami 63.11 (13) 62.13 (15) 43.22 (64)
14 62.03 Arizona State 58.51 (18) 65.56 (7) 48.01 (33)
15 61.75 Iowa State 58.60 (17) 64.91 (9) 47.08 (39)
16 61.43 Colorado 61.33 (15) 61.52 (16) 48.79 (27)
17 61.35 BYU 57.72 (23) 64.98 (8) 47.36 (38)
18 60.02 Louisville 62.66 (14) 57.38 (25) 49.72 (19)
19 59.09 Clemson 59.48 (16) 58.70 (22) 45.43 (52)
20 59.08 LSU 58.51 (19) 59.65 (18) 52.43 (5)
Rank Rating Team Predictive Record Schedule
21 57.84 Boise State 54.52 (33) 61.17 (17) 36.95 (84)
22 57.80 Kansas State 58.02 (22) 57.59 (23) 49.97 (18)
23 57.73 Texas A&M 58.17 (21) 57.29 (26) 49.47 (20)
24 57.19 Missouri 54.86 (32) 59.52 (19) 45.74 (46)
25 56.61 Florida 57.66 (24) 55.57 (31) 53.84 (1)
26 56.32 Baylor 56.52 (27) 56.11 (30) 47.96 (34)
27 55.59 Tulane 58.27 (20) 52.90 (38) 37.98 (80)
28 55.47 Iowa 56.89 (26) 54.05 (34) 45.76 (45)
29 54.55 UNLV 52.64 (36) 56.45 (28) 36.06 (91)
30 54.17 Syracuse 49.22 (50) 59.11 (21) 45.66 (49)
31 53.97 Illinois 50.55 (45) 57.39 (24) 43.22 (63)
32 53.56 TCU 52.45 (38) 54.68 (33) 45.69 (47)
33 53.31 Oklahoma 56.14 (28) 50.49 (42) 53.02 (2)
34 53.22 Texas Tech 51.07 (43) 55.36 (32) 47.02 (40)
35 53.17 Michigan 52.94 (35) 53.40 (37) 51.29 (10)
36 53.12 USC 57.22 (25) 49.03 (47) 50.97 (11)
37 52.92 Minnesota 55.18 (31) 50.67 (41) 46.77 (42)
38 52.82 Army 49.27 (49) 56.36 (29) 31.40 (123)
39 51.97 Georgia Tech 52.36 (39) 51.59 (40) 47.80 (35)
40 51.95 Duke 47.30 (55) 56.59 (27) 42.61 (66)
Rank Rating Team Predictive Record Schedule
41 51.88 Virginia Tech 55.86 (29) 47.90 (51) 49.46 (21)
42 50.72 Vanderbilt 53.10 (34) 48.35 (48) 49.32 (23)
43 50.63 Boston College 51.50 (41) 49.76 (45) 45.67 (48)
44 50.63 Kansas 55.64 (30) 45.62 (61) 52.16 (7)
45 49.81 Memphis 45.64 (62) 53.98 (35) 33.32 (110)
46 49.58 Pittsburgh 49.60 (48) 49.55 (46) 44.68 (56)
47 49.21 Louisiana 45.01 (65) 53.41 (36) 31.98 (121)
48 48.95 Marshall 45.49 (63) 52.41 (39) 37.68 (81)
49 48.87 Arkansas 51.14 (42) 46.59 (55) 46.60 (43)
50 48.14 Navy 45.80 (59) 50.47 (43) 36.37 (89)
51 47.85 Nebraska 50.07 (46) 45.62 (60) 46.53 (44)
52 47.78 Rutgers 47.37 (54) 48.20 (50) 42.87 (65)
53 47.49 Washington 48.11 (53) 46.87 (54) 48.37 (32)
54 46.94 Auburn 52.48 (37) 41.40 (77) 46.83 (41)
55 46.66 Cincinnati 50.02 (47) 43.31 (66) 49.43 (22)
56 46.66 West Virginia 45.65 (61) 47.67 (53) 48.42 (30)
57 46.25 Utah 50.59 (44) 41.91 (75) 47.73 (36)
58 46.06 UCLA 46.27 (58) 45.85 (58) 52.89 (3)
59 45.99 Georgia Southern 41.93 (75) 50.04 (44) 40.86 (70)
60 45.80 Wisconsin 48.61 (51) 42.99 (69) 49.31 (24)
Rank Rating Team Predictive Record Schedule
61 45.17 California 47.29 (56) 43.05 (68) 43.62 (62)
62 44.93 Washington State 43.77 (67) 46.10 (56) 35.53 (97)
63 44.87 James Madison 45.45 (64) 44.30 (62) 32.64 (114)
64 44.75 UCF 51.68 (40) 37.82 (90) 48.37 (31)
65 44.53 North Carolina 46.59 (57) 42.47 (70) 42.56 (67)
66 44.14 Kentucky 48.38 (52) 39.90 (83) 50.85 (12)
67 44.00 Ohio 40.28 (77) 47.72 (52) 30.45 (128)
68 43.93 Miami (OH) 41.98 (74) 45.88 (57) 34.96 (102)
69 43.49 Virginia 43.62 (68) 43.36 (65) 50.06 (16)
70 43.24 NC State 42.85 (70) 43.63 (64) 44.29 (60)
71 43.04 Texas State 45.79 (60) 40.30 (80) 33.63 (106)
72 41.88 Sam Houston 35.47 (96) 48.29 (49) 32.18 (120)
73 41.57 Houston 42.90 (69) 40.24 (81) 51.43 (9)
74 41.23 UConn 39.27 (79) 43.20 (67) 31.32 (124)
75 40.74 Western Kentucky 37.71 (89) 43.77 (63) 32.23 (119)
76 40.56 Colorado State 35.46 (97) 45.67 (59) 34.43 (104)
77 40.50 Jacksonville State 38.73 (82) 42.26 (73) 30.13 (129)
78 40.09 Bowling Green 39.68 (78) 40.49 (79) 33.06 (111)
79 40.05 Maryland 42.26 (72) 37.85 (89) 48.99 (26)
80 39.56 Michigan State 38.22 (86) 40.90 (78) 45.55 (51)
Rank Rating Team Predictive Record Schedule
81 39.46 Old Dominion 42.00 (73) 36.92 (95) 41.93 (68)
82 39.27 Northern Illinois 38.63 (83) 39.91 (82) 33.44 (108)
83 38.91 San José State 36.29 (92) 41.53 (76) 35.33 (99)
84 38.56 Oklahoma State 42.30 (71) 34.82 (102) 50.35 (14)
85 38.35 South Alabama 40.40 (76) 36.31 (96) 33.02 (112)
86 38.11 Toledo 37.08 (91) 39.13 (84) 32.29 (118)
87 38.08 Arizona 38.31 (84) 37.86 (87) 48.52 (28)
88 38.04 Northwestern 38.75 (81) 37.32 (93) 47.67 (37)
89 37.77 South Florida 37.75 (88) 37.79 (91) 35.32 (100)
90 37.63 Liberty 32.92 (104) 42.34 (72) 25.55 (134)
91 37.61 Fresno State 37.99 (87) 37.23 (94) 35.80 (94)
92 37.54 Mississippi State 44.33 (66) 30.75 (108) 52.27 (6)
93 37.01 East Carolina 35.54 (95) 38.49 (85) 30.71 (125)
94 36.83 Wake Forest 38.24 (85) 35.41 (99) 44.63 (58)
95 36.72 Coastal Carolina 35.58 (94) 37.85 (88) 36.86 (85)
96 36.71 North Texas 35.89 (93) 37.53 (92) 36.04 (92)
97 36.65 App State 34.94 (98) 38.35 (86) 40.82 (71)
98 36.64 Buffalo 30.84 (108) 42.45 (71) 29.55 (130)
99 36.32 Stanford 38.95 (80) 33.69 (104) 49.06 (25)
100 35.26 UTSA 34.70 (99) 35.83 (98) 33.49 (107)
Rank Rating Team Predictive Record Schedule
101 35.17 Arkansas State 28.21 (117) 42.12 (74) 35.73 (95)
102 33.91 Oregon State 33.12 (102) 34.70 (103) 38.63 (77)
103 33.89 Florida State 37.70 (90) 30.09 (109) 50.38 (13)
104 33.21 UL Monroe 31.39 (105) 35.04 (101) 39.20 (76)
105 32.40 Charlotte 28.90 (116) 35.90 (97) 40.19 (73)
106 32.40 Western Michigan 29.60 (114) 35.19 (100) 31.91 (122)
107 31.87 Air Force 31.36 (106) 32.37 (105) 35.65 (96)
108 31.22 Rice 33.11 (103) 29.32 (110) 36.70 (87)
109 31.12 New Mexico 30.66 (109) 31.57 (106) 35.08 (101)
110 30.75 Troy 33.16 (101) 28.33 (113) 35.86 (93)
111 30.30 Hawai'i 29.33 (115) 31.27 (107) 32.59 (115)
112 29.94 Nevada 34.46 (100) 25.42 (119) 40.40 (72)
113 29.56 Utah State 30.16 (112) 28.96 (111) 36.85 (86)
114 28.74 Georgia State 30.47 (111) 27.01 (116) 40.91 (69)
115 28.43 Louisiana Tech 29.61 (113) 27.24 (115) 27.95 (133)
116 28.15 Wyoming 30.63 (110) 25.68 (118) 39.38 (74)
117 27.57 Eastern Michigan 27.18 (119) 27.97 (114) 29.02 (132)
118 27.39 Florida International 31.29 (107) 23.50 (124) 30.53 (126)
119 27.00 Akron 25.09 (124) 28.91 (112) 36.62 (88)
120 26.03 UAB 27.70 (118) 24.35 (123) 36.13 (90)
Rank Rating Team Predictive Record Schedule
121 25.82 Central Michigan 25.96 (122) 25.68 (117) 32.93 (113)
122 25.70 Purdue 26.49 (120) 24.90 (121) 50.03 (17)
123 24.42 San Diego State 26.40 (121) 22.44 (125) 34.50 (103)
124 24.06 Ball State 23.76 (125) 24.37 (122) 37.37 (82)
125 23.74 Temple 22.32 (127) 25.15 (120) 38.21 (79)
126 22.65 Florida Atlantic 25.71 (123) 19.59 (129) 30.52 (127)
127 20.83 UTEP 20.45 (128) 21.21 (127) 33.34 (109)
128 20.76 Massachusetts 22.51 (126) 19.00 (131) 35.50 (98)
129 19.54 Middle Tennessee 17.41 (131) 21.68 (126) 34.06 (105)
130 19.15 New Mexico State 17.89 (129) 20.41 (128) 32.52 (116)
131 16.57 Kennesaw State 17.67 (130) 15.48 (133) 32.50 (117)
132 15.91 Southern Miss 16.21 (132) 15.60 (132) 38.26 (78)
133 15.75 Tulsa 12.15 (133) 19.34 (130) 29.50 (131)
134 8.81 Kent State 7.15 (134) 10.46 (134) 37.08 (83) Game Predictions
Here are the game predictions this week, ranked by my estimate of overall game quality. This takes into account the quality of the teams and the probability that the score of the game will be competitive. The team qualities are generally higher than for my NFL ratings because the quality of all college football teams are ranked, not just those at the FBS level. My goal is to try to rank the games according to which matchups are most compelling. For each team, I list their expected margin of victory and their probability of winning. The margin of victory is positive if the computer ratings predict that a team will win, but it's negative if they're expected to lose. The system doesn't know anything about which games are traditional rivalries, so this is only based on the quality of the teams involved and how evenly they're matched.
Game rank #1: Penn State (-0.31, 49.09%) vs. Oregon (0.31, 50.91%)
Competitive quality: 99.99%, Team quality: 97.90%
Overall game quality: 98.59%
Game rank #2: Georgia (-4.87, 36.15%) vs. Texas (4.87, 63.85%)
Competitive quality: 96.97%, Team quality: 98.58%
Overall game quality: 98.04%
Game rank #3: Iowa State (0.09, 50.25%) vs. Arizona State (-0.09, 49.75%)
Competitive quality: 100.00%, Team quality: 96.89%
Overall game quality: 97.92%
Game rank #4: Clemson (-4.37, 37.48%) vs. SMU (4.37, 62.52%)
Competitive quality: 97.57%, Team quality: 97.50%
Overall game quality: 97.52%
Game rank #5: UNLV (-4.44, 37.28%) @ Boise State (4.44, 62.72%)
Competitive quality: 97.48%, Team quality: 95.57%
Overall game quality: 96.20%
Game rank #6: Tulane (6.44, 67.81%) @ Army (-6.44, 32.19%)
Competitive quality: 94.69%, Team quality: 95.58%
Overall game quality: 95.28%
Game rank #7: Marshall (-2.09, 43.87%) @ Louisiana (2.09, 56.13%)
Competitive quality: 99.45%, Team quality: 92.52%
Overall game quality: 94.77%
Game rank #8: Ohio (-1.69, 45.02%) vs. Miami (OH) (1.69, 54.98%)
Competitive quality: 99.64%, Team quality: 90.49%
Overall game quality: 93.44%
Game rank #9: Western Kentucky (-3.59, 39.60%) @ Jacksonville State (3.59, 60.40%)
Competitive quality: 98.36%, Team quality: 88.80%
Overall game quality: 91.88%
This is a short article because I want to get this posted before tonight's conference championship games, and I'll have another article soon analyzing the selection committee's controversial decision to place Alabama back in a position to make the playoff.
If you're interested in more content like this, please click the "Subscribe" button below and share this article on social media. I develop my own code to generate these ratings and predictions, of course relying on data from others and open source libraries, but none of my content is or will ever be created with generative AI. Your help in supporting more quality content like this is greatly appreciated. This article relies on data from CollegeFootballData.com, which contains a wealth of information about college football, makes it freely available, and shares it in formats that are easily accessible.